Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Too bad too..The money they spent on Fedex
and all the damn warning letters, not to mention having someone monitor
this site all day for anybody saying offensive angry things..they could
have used that money to pay your profits..

True, Pooh !

The bad news for this morning is that every tsp fund is showing a lose.
The good news (if you can call it that) is that the last time the tsp funds
closed negative (C-S-I-F) on April 14, 2008, the next two days rallied.

Will lightening strike twice, can recent history repeat itself ?

Hell, I don't know. Today's a new day with new headlines !
Let's hope the Good Days outperform the Bad Ones !
Maybe someone see's a bounce during Late Afternoon:notrust:
Trading ? Any Takers ? I'm In !:suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

So would you recommend jumping out of the G and into the I? Or a split?

 

[Guest2]

So would you recommend jumping out of the G and into the I? Or a split?

I'll leave the recomendations to the Pro's. However, I'll be more then glad
to share what I'm doing in my "make believe" unrestricted portfolio. This
reflects what I would have done, if not restricted to snail mail;

I moved 50% of my into the G-Fund at the close of business on Friday.
The rest of my money was allocated as follows; C20%-S10%-I20%

TODAY AT 11:25AM; I did an IFT (make believe) as follows;
C 25% - S 40% - I 35%
I have a feeling that my allocation percentages give a strong
clue as to which fund I believe will outperform the other.
This, I hope, answers your question ! Good Luck in what
ever you decide.

 

[Guest2]

I gotta get my some of those animated Gifs to post my feeling a little
better then saying; POOH ! Boy it's ugly out there right now. On the
bright side of things, the Market is only taking away our Friday gains.
In fact, it hasn't even reached that point yet. Another member usually
says it better then I can; "Stay Right & Sit Tight" !

Looking at the returns up to this point is giving me a "Hemmy" and
I don't mean the engine. Ever try sitting tight with one of those ?
It hurts, but it's do-able. Hears hoping for a end of the day swing
to even (upside would be greedy):nuts:

 

[Guest2]

Uh-Ummmm, Thoughts for Wednesday:

The games afoot, let the dogs of war reek havoc ! Too many movies !
In other words (more fitting to the topic at hand) May the horn of a Bull
be so placed, that no Bear dare to rear (pun) it's ugly head tomarrow !

We're just above the April Fools closing prices within the USM.
You remember, that 3.0% day we sipped champagne over. We
can't expect (we can hope) the Market to go up in a straight
line. I'm sure the other members are pouring over their charts
and signals. I'll be looking to see if the Bull is only resting.

The OSM is a little more ahead of the April Fools close. (EFA).
But with a +.19 tsp deficit (good) and possibly more tonight,
Wednesday could turn out to be another pretty nice day.

I'll be back after the 7:30pm tsp share price update to see how
I faired. With a little luck, the F-Fund might show a small gain.
But something keeps telling me that we'll be equally surprised
to see a lose, as we were with the gain from yesterday.

See Ya Soon

 

[Wrngway]

I've been following the P&F Chart recently. According to that we have a little further to go before we see some more upward movement. Of course, the chart doesn't say how long it will take to get there.

Or we could see the floor drop out below us...Or maybe I'm all wrong and we'll keep pushing higher in spite of all the gloom and doom.

 

[Guest2]

I've been following the P&F Chart recently. According to that we have a little further to go before we see some more upward movement. Of course, the chart doesn't say how long it will take to get there. Or we could see the floor drop out below us...Or maybe I'm
all wrong and we'll keep pushing higher in spite of all the gloom and doom.

An old saying comes to mind, in fact, two (just to spice up my response);
"Wall street climbs on a wall of worry" "Without no risk, there is no gain"

With that said, I've heard we are about to drop another shoe and fall into
the depths of Depression. I've heard that we've hit the bottom of the Bear
Market and sideline monies are gonna start pouring in. So where's a TSP'er
suppose to turn when so many mixed opinions hit you like an M16 on burst

As you so eliquently wrote above; "maybe" ! The search for answers puts
us on a quest, a thirst for knowledge from those more experienced. When
it's all said and done, the word "maybe" should have powerful meaning !

Indecision should equal "safety" for thats not good enough to assume
risk. Partial Agreement (leaning) allows us to avail ourselves to some risk.
In Total Agreement (convinced) opens the door to both good and bad.

So if "maybe" is strong enough, I'd be overweight in safety and take a
risk at being wrong with a very small portion of my portfolio. Until the
Markets, Charts, Puntificators and Prognosticators come into alignment
with the Third Moon of Jupiter or until my wife stops asking me to take
out the trash, mixed signals should have us air on the side of caution.

As far as my risk vs. reward decision for tomarrow. I took my retirement
and testicles to Atlantic City and I'm rolling them dice, yet again. As we
look forward to Wednesdays opening; Hong Kong, Germany, DJstoxx and
the American Futures Market are nicely in the "green". Good Luck Bro !

 

[Guest2]

I guess I was tired last night. The ramblings of a mad man.

With a single digit deficit, a lag in performance during open trading and my
thirst to lose money (LoL), I decided to take my "make believe" account to
risk heaven. In other words, I took my 25-40-35 and did a IFT to 100% in
the (I) Fund. I'm not sure if I'll keep it in there for the upcoming weekend,
so I'll be watching closely.

+4.77% YTD "real deal"
+9.13% YTD "make believe"

 

[Steadygain]

25-40-35

With F Fund down - things should go well for you.


A lot of us are expecting the BIG ONE as Nnutt calls it but you never know. Birchtree's update is hard to ignore.

Anyway as spokemen for the MB - we fully expect you to end the year with at least 15% and the only way that's going to happen is being in high risk (taking the gains) even when the rest of us are hidding in safety. Once you reach 15% - take a break and let the rest catch up. :laugh::toung:

 

[Guest2]

With F Fund down - things should go well
for you. A lot of us are expecting the BIG ONE as Nnutt calls it but
you never know. Birchtree's update is hard to ignore. Anyway as
spokemen for the MB - we fully expect you to end the year with at
least 15% and the only way that's going to happen is being in high
risk (taking the gains) even when the rest of us are hidding in
safety. Once you reach 15% - take a break and let the rest catch up.

I'm 100% in the stock fund in my "make believe" portfolio.
I'm 55% in Bonds in my "real deal" tracker portfolio.
At this moment, the AGG is down and the SPX,EFA and DWCPF
appear to be floating down or unchanged. Not enough to make
up for any loss in the F-Fund. I hope the stock funds come to
their senses and regain there 10:30am highs.

How funny is THAT ! "spokesman for the MB" I am humbled in the company
of Birchtree,Uptrend,Robo,Nnuts,Anidoc,James,Show and yourself. There are
too many to list. In other words, I'm not deserving of such a title but
you certainly made me feel good. Thanks.
:embarrest:
Steady, you suffer from the same illness that I have. It's called unrealistic
expectation of others. (LoL). 15% might be an achievable goal without the
mail restrictions being imposed upon me. However, I must wait until the
powers above remove this very restrictive penalty. I haven't made one
IFT for April in my "real deal" portfolio and its cost me 4.4% in gains since
April Fools Day. The risk to wait approximately 7 days for a change to
occur is too high. I must study harder, to better understand the Market
on a biweekly basis, in lieu of daily evaluations. It's harder and will take
some time to get the same feelings I get on a daily basis. Bottom Line,
I'll be trying to catch up to alot of people, once I'm free of penalty.
:worried:

 

[Steadygain]

I'm 100% in the stock fund in my "make believe" portfolio. Woops sorry
I'm 55% in Bonds in my "real deal" tracker portfolio. Utt ohh

That's why I went G - figured either one could get hit.

How funny is THAT ! "spokesman for the MB" I am humbled in the company
of Birchtree,Uptrend,Robo,Nnuts,Anidoc,James,Show and yourself. There are too many to list. In other words, I'm not deserving of such a title but you certainly made me feel good. Thanks. Ahh that's funny I actually meant myself as the spokemen - that was simply to try to put a little fear in you - let you know we all met and this is our decision - YOU HAVE BEEN CALLED TO GET 15%. But when you write their names I see how I would be the last choice - not the first; let alone all those you didn't mention.

Steady, you suffer from the same illness that I have. It's called unrealistic expectation of others. (LoL). 15% might be an achievable goal without the mail restrictions being imposed upon me. My appologies friend, didn't realize this bizarre bull**** hit you as well. However, I must wait until the powers above remove this very restrictive penalty. I haven't made one IFT for April in my "real deal" portfolio and its cost me 4.4% in gains since April Fools Day. Screw those bastards - don't let them prevent you from raking in the money. We can only go down for so long and a 20% reduction is VERY GOOD so none of us really need to do frequent trades. The day will come when we can throw it all in and let it ride. With 5% now - you'll tack on at least another 10% (at least I hope you do). The risk to wait approximately 7 days for a change to occur is too high. I must study harder, to better understand the Market on a biweekly basis, in lieu of daily evaluations. It's harder and will take some time to get the same feelings I get on a daily basis. Bottom Line,
I'll be trying to catch up to alot of people, once I'm free of penalty.
:worried:

Actually it's way bigger a risk to keep jumping in and out and very few are ever able to "luck out" consistently. I don't know if you're familar with EBB - but he was the undoubted MASTER OF THEM ALL and since 10/07 his system totally failed. So as we approach the BOTTOM it will only go up from there for months to come.

Anyway GL and sorry about the Mail Crap - I really hope everyone can start on the same space with the new year (if not earlier)

 

[Guest2]

Actually it's way bigger a risk to keep jumping in and out and very few are ever able to "luck out" consistently.

You my friend are the best.
So, it's 15% or bust, is it ? I'll give it the old college try !
By the way, I have disleccia (spelling), I typed your name first !

In 2006, I beat every fund, but the I Fund. Miss it by 3%.
In 2007, I came to tsptalk and watched EBB at work. I beat all funds.
In 2008, Without restriction I'm +9.13% YTD

"Lucking Out" at this pace was time consuming and hard work.
Ebb hit the pits once the Bull Market ended. I was hoping to see
him do good when things turned for the worse. I'd pay for a service
with consistant "better then avaerage" results. I was able to combine
my "Hit & Run" and "DCAing" approach to hit some big swings upward.

But when it's all said and done, I don't fool myself ! I'm simply rolling
the dice with my eyes open, fully aware of the risk !

 

[Guest2]

Well folks, if the futures and OSM are a tell-tale sign of things to come,
it looks like going in the I-Fund today wasn't such a good thing. The only
bright side I saw was the Dollar gaining ground on the Euro. Anything can
happen til 4:20pm, I guess. My luck, Europe will sink into ocean and russia
will invade Florida. Gee, do I sound a little depressed.? I am !

Maybe the F-Fund will rally a .50% to off set my misery

 

[nasa1974]

I made a few dollars yesterday and most likely will give it back today, if not a little more. I hope tomorrow will be a positive day so I can pull back to G tomorrow. Of course I will miss the penny increase today.
From what I have been reading that is what it looks like most people are suggesting. Not smart enough to be a leader so follow I must.

 

[Steadygain]

I'm 100% in the stock fund in my "make believe" portfolio. I'm 55% in Bonds in my "real deal" tracker portfolio.

However, I must wait until the powers above remove this very restrictive penalty. I haven't made one IFT for April in my "real deal" portfolio and its cost me 4.4% in gains since April Fools Day. Bottom Line,I'll be trying to catch up to alot of people, once I'm free of penalty.

nevermind my previous post (I wrote here) just realized the restrictions are being lifted May 2008 ​

 

[Guest2]

I'm gonna do my best to keep up, but their's a lot going on right now and
I'm finding it hard to find the time that I'm accustom to. This should only
be a temporary (couple weeks) situation (weddings etc...). So if I run a
little late on replies, retorts etc..... please understand that I haven't left
the building.

Looks like my Gut about the I-Fund was dead-on. The F-Fund took a
dump and was no help. But the I-Fund going to higher double digit deficits
and the USM doing ok, may baud well for a Friday rebound in Europe.
I kept my "make believe" portfolio the same this afternoon. 100% (I).

Early AM hours will give me time to read some posts and the Thrift Boards
Decision Comments. I'm sure I'll have something to say about it all, soon.
I always do.

 

[Guest2]

Europe is up, US Futures are up, Japan is up, the Euro is up against the
Dollar, France & Germany are up. HELL, I'M UP TOO ! :nuts: :laugh:
Can anyone say; "I-Fund Rebound",,,,,,,yaaaaaaaahoooooooo

 

[Guest2]

May the Bond (F) Fund find something positive and rise
with stocks this fine day ! Just as it did on 04/18/2008.

 

[nasa1974]

So what do you think stay CSI today or go to G and play it safe?

 

[Guest2]

I just entered a comment to this article, under
the name squalebear. Lets see if it gets published.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=39853&sid=2

Heck, this is what I wrote, why make you wait!

"I got a question. The TSP has operated for years without limitations. Ok, times have changed and costs for Oct.Nov.Dec. may have
gone up significantly enough for the Board to feel a change was needed. Instead of informing the TSP Participants that they intended
to submit to the Federal Registry a rule change and it would be open for comment. They sent out letters first and told frequent traders
to stop or be placed on Mail Restrictions for doing something which was totaly legal at the time. When 547 decided to wait for the rule
to be finalized. That must have enraged the Board so much that they penalized the 547 by placing them on Mail Restrictions. Now that
type of retaliation, being a non emergency, is down right illegal. To disguise it as a "interim rule" leads one to believe that the change
was needed immediately. Or was it the fact that BGI (Barclays) was knee deep in the Credit Crisis with liquidity issues and Billions in
Writedowns? I find it most interesting that the focus was on 4000 TSP Participants and not whether our money was safe within Barclays
hands to begin with".

Sounds like they were afraid of a "RUN ON THE BANK" or on the tsp in this case.