Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Gents, If I were as upset as some members appear to be I would do one of two things; either pick up my marbles and go play somewhere else or pull up my pants and find another House of the Rising Sun. You cannot fight these people - please realize that there is still ample opportunity to make capital appreciation in your TSP account. Search for the forest away from the individual trees.

Birchtree, Its not so easy to give up the comfort level that the TSP has
always provided. In fact, it could be too costly for me at this stage of the
game. My marbles will not yield. Although the Board has my pants around
my knees, they'll eventualy withdraw and I'll still be out there playing with
my marbles in public. (LoL). I don't agree with your statement when you
said; "You can't fight these people". I would agree with you more if you
said, "You can't win". I lean towards that belief myself. But this is not
a fight that I wanted, nor started. Based on the letter (below), One can
almost conclude that this has turned personal for some on the Board. I'll
just have to wait and see how it all turns out.

As far as Capital Appreciation, I love reading your comments and respect
your opinion. You are extremely wise in things I aspire to learn. Now, lets
hope "Smokey The Bear" doesn't start burning down our money trees.
After all, there can be no forest without them.

 

[Guest2]

And I like your marbles too...

DENNIS,,,,,,PUT THE MARBLES DOWN
AND PUT YOUR HANDS ON YOUR HEAD ! :nuts:
(never a cop around when ya need um) :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

My keyboard is soaked and my sides ache, thanks for the laugh of the day!

Anidoc, There are great benefits in laughter, my pleasure.

While not trying to be the anti-christ, I must say that Mr. Long has rights
too. Having an opinion is one thing, but one would be wise to keep those
opinions within the rhelm of acceptability. ie... No threats to his nut sac,
No wishing him to die, etc..... Venting ones feelings in an open forum can
come back to haunt you, if not careful, 1st Amendment or not.

Or maybe I'm just being paranoid.:blink:

 

[Guest2]

Looks like the C-Fund is up +.07 TSP Cents
Looks like the S-Fund is up +.08 or +.09 TSP Cents
Looks like the EFA just spiked up in the last minutes of trading. (MAYBE +.15)
Looks like the AGG is simply taking a Bear Poop. -.07,-.06 ????

 

[BamaAF]

Looks like the C-Fund is up +.07 TSP Cents
Looks like the S-Fund is up +.08 or +.09 TSP Cents
Looks like the EFA just spiked up in the last minutes of trading. (MAYBE +.15)
Looks like the AGG is simply taking a Bear Poop. -.07,-.06 ????

Yeah, just enough profit to cancel out yesterday and and leave a penny or two left over -- maybe just trying to make us feel good before the next two or three stormy days. Actually I was expecting to be licking my wounds about this time today, so I will gladly take it.

 

[Guest2]

Yeah, just enough profit to cancel out yesterday and and leave a penny or two left over -- maybe just trying to make us feel good before the next two or three stormy days. Actually I was expecting to be licking my wounds about this time today, so I will gladly take it.

For me, just enough (F) to bring down the (C) (S) (I),,,,,pooh !
Maybe they'll surprise us today with a +.21 (I) return,,,,,looks possible !
With +.15 the (I) would match the EFA return of .70% (not likely)
Who am I kidding,,, It's an up day ,,, Barclays will short us again.
Let's say +.12 TSP Cents for the (I) return (thats my guess)

 

[Guest2]

Just got this vid of Mr Long on his way home from work...

I was think more like,,,,Killer Queen.(LoL)

Funeral today and the family is dragging me (kicking and screaming) to it.
I made a quick, off the cuff, gut feeling move (make believe) to 40%(C)
20%(S), 40%(I). Thats an increase in the (I) Fund and a decrease in (S).

Until later tonight, hope everyone makes some money today !

 

[Guest2]

My condolences to you and your family. I hate funerals too. Thanks for sharing your moves.

Thanks you for the kind words, 23 years old is way too
young to be taken away from us. Cancer has no age
preference. I passed on your kind thoughts.

Looks like I might squeeze out a little profit from the Market today.
This time, the 45% in CSI is out doing the 55% in the F fund. I've
been losing ground in the Tracker and probably will continue to do
so until May (you know).

It's good to see that there's news that can quiet the Doom & Gloom
prognasticators (spelling?). CPI and Core was in line, some earnings
and outlooks gave my Bulls reason to buy. As far as the Bears are
concerned, just look at my avitar. They are tired today and we can
only hope they go into hybernation.

I don't know what to expect from the I-Fund today. To keep even
with the EFA would mean a +.56 TSP cent gain or +2.45% (now).
The I-Fund is already at it's differential peek in comparison to the
EFA. Eventually, Barclays will need to give some differential back.
But the recent past has shown, Barclays wait for the Down Days
to do this. If they add to the differential today, it should only be
by a couple of cents (.02), that means a +.54 TSP cent gain. But,
if my prayers have been answered, they will give up some differential
instead of adding to it. A guess, they might give us back +.05 TSP
cents. (Wishful thinking).

Here the bottom line; $23.43 - $23.50 per share.
Heck, I've been wrong more then right and I have yet to incorporate
FV into my prognastications (spelling?). But it's fun to see how bad or
how good my projections come out. In either case, at 3:10pm, it does
appear to be a good day all around. Here's to many more !

 

[Guest2]

Estimate from Chem Eng spreadsheet
15:02 estimate: +37 cents from market change PLUS +20 cents from dollar change EQUALS +58 cents $23.46

Final (I) Fund figure = +.04 TSP Cents (.213%) over and above the EFA
closing percentage ($23.66 per share). Prayers were answered. Barclays
did INDEED give back some differential. When the differential hits 1.00%
or more (.023 cents 1.01% at closing yesterday) The fund managers use
to give back some differential. Lately, they've been waiting for down days
to do so. At closing today, the EFA closed up +3.15%.The (I) closed up
+3.36% which includes the .04 diferential mentioned above. Currently, the
the differential stands at .19 cent or .80% (still a higher % then the single
digit % differential the (I) aspires to maintane).

Be back in a few hours with some more thoughts.
Great Day !

 

[Guest2]

nikkei and aord both up over 1% already. Thursday will be great for I fund!

Thats some great news ! Let's keep this train rolling !
While looking at the differences in my 2 tracking accounts,
which currently stands at $5080.43 they owe me in damages,
I had a thought. I usually speak of differentials and deficits when
explaining my thoughts concerning the (I) Fund projected outcome.
I can't help but think this can be very confusing to most and I wonder
if going back a year and publishing my findings would help others have
a better understanding of my nonsense. Hmmmmmmm, I think I will !
:nuts:

 

[Guest2]

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

In order to closely reflect the returns demonstrated in the MSCI EAFE Index, the I-Fund Mgr’s
(Barclays) must make next day adjustments to the I - Fund returns for many different reasons.
Specifically; Fair Value, Currency Exchange Rates, Fees(among others) have been identified as
contributing factors that cause the (sometimes large) differences between the Index and TSP’s
I - Fund daily results. Since the EFA (an electronically traded fund -ETF) is also modeled to
reflect the MSCI EAFE Index and it’s easier to monitor during the coarse of a normal trading
day, I decided several years ago to track both the EFA and I - Fund for comparison purposes. It
started out as something to do for fun. When I noticed a small trend develop in the numbers, it
became much more, it became an additional tool to use towards Interfund Transfer selections.
If the differences between the two funds grew to double digit TSP cents, (+.10 , + .30) it meant
the I-Fund was due a greater return within the next few days. The figures showed consistency in
this behavior until Barclays began to feel the Credit Crisis (that’s another long story). Now the
Fund Mgr’s at Barclays will hold the differences for longer periods of time and wait for a down
day to adjust the differentials. This in turn results in lower gains in a up day and lower loses in a
down day. Lately, some of you have noticed that when the I - Fund went down, it didn’t see the
loses that the EFA did. On the other side of the coin, when the I - Fund had a gain, the EFA did
much better in contrast. This behavior became evident , coincidentally, when the Thrift Board
saw huge swings in fund transfers and large fair value blunders at the hands some highly paid
individuals. (Again, a long story). Again, my tracking has nothing to do with Fair Value. I am
certain that FV answers for some part (maybe a large part) of this evaluation. Until I’m able to
incorporate fair value into my previously tracked figures, I’ll just go with my broad observation.

So when saying the I-Fund has a +0.23 TSP cent YTD deficit (thats good)
thats what it was on April 15, 2008 at the 7:30pm TSP Share Price update

On Wednesday, April 16, 2008 the deficit shrank a little. That means we
were given a few extra pennies by Barclays in there effort to drive down
the dificit. They gave us +.04 TSP cents more. But it only drove the YTD
dificit down to +.19 TSP cents. Remember, they strive for single digits,
but could still add to the deficit come tomarrow and spread this out over
more time (but not much). I've seen a deficit of +.19 get knocked down
to the negative. Thats an overpayment to the I-Fund and in turn would
create a EFA deficit. (not so good).

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks Squalebear,

Your last post has help me understand a few things. I wonder if the flucuation of Barclay's number's is more to protect their assests from large swings instead of us??? Anyway thanks for the information. I will have to save it for further analysis. Great day yesterday .77 for the I. To bad I only had 20% invested. But fortunately I only had 20% in the F (.07). Currently Asia closed strong and lets hope Europe follows. Later.

 

[Guest2]

Bear,
You should post this in the "I Fund" and in "FV or not FV" threads. I'm sure readers would find it interesting.

Anidoc, when I first introduced this information (some time ago) it was
pretty much dismissed by those who knew far more then I. My lack of
knowledge concerning FV just added to its unworthiness. I can't blame
them. I put my thoughts on this thread for anyone out there willing to
read them. The (I) and (FV) threads hold great value with time proven
information. I don't want to cludder them with conjecture. TSPgo found
my information "intersting" and stated he'd like to look into it more. Heck,
thats a compliment in itself. I'll stick to this thread without imposing on
others. If I build it, maybe they will come ! Geez, too many movies !

 

[Guest2]

Thanks Squalebear, I wonder if the flucuation of Barclay's number's is more to protect their assests from large swings instead of us?

Great point, in light of the Credit Crisis they are exposed to.

 

[Guest2]

Someone please tell me the dismal futures are down because of Dumb
Money. I'm waiting for 10:30am maybe some smart money will finally join
us Bulls. (One Can Only Hope)

 

[nasa1974]

Finacial wise a lot of negative in the paper and on the internet. I am still about $1500 in the hole before yesterdays numbers. I am at home and don't have my spread sheet here to check profit/loss from yesterday but I think I am going all "G" today. Hope that the "I" can give me some profit and a little loss in the "F" for today. Just don't have a warm fuzzy. Of course my gut feelings have cost me in the past. Stayed the course for a few days to try and eeck out a couple more bucks last year and lost a couple thou. OUCH!!

 

[Guest2]

Finacial wise a lot of negative in the paper and on the internet. I am still about $1500 in the hole before yesterdays numbers. I am at home and don't have my spread sheet here to check profit/loss from yesterday but I think I am going all "G" today. Hope that the "I" can give me some profit and a little loss in the "F" for today. Just don't have a warm fuzzy. Of course my gut feelings have cost me in the past. Stayed the course for a few days to try and eeck out a couple more bucks last year and lost a couple thou. OUCH!!

It would appear through today's example,,,,so far,,,, that this is a hit & run market and maybe they know more then we ?:worried:

 

[BamaAF]

Finacial wise a lot of negative in the paper and on the internet. I am still about $1500 in the hole before yesterdays numbers. I am at home and don't have my spread sheet here to check profit/loss from yesterday but I think I am going all "G" today. Hope that the "I" can give me some profit and a little loss in the "F" for today. Just don't have a warm fuzzy. Of course my gut feelings have cost me in the past. Stayed the course for a few days to try and eeck out a couple more bucks last year and lost a couple thou. OUCH!!

From the looks of things I wouldn't count on "I" having a very productive day. Hopefully will catch fire but down significantly right now.

 

[nasa1974]

Not sure what FV will do? But Nikkei was up and Europe hasn't tanked yet. I wish I new what I was doing. Just going with my gut. My fingers are crossed. Later, I have to head off to some training.

 

[nasa1974]

Well I went "G". I have 1 more move left. So I guess I will wait out next week and hope to hit the plus side at the end of the month.