Squalebear's Account Talk

[Show-me]

Non Sub-Prime Mortgage Foreclosures and Credit Card Companies, I think ?

Some of that is already happening, just not being pounded by the pump monkeys on CNBC.

 

[Guest2]

Some of that is already happening, just not being pounded by the pump monkeys on CNBC.

Is that what they're pounding at CNBC, I stopped watching them for
quite a while now. I have Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg TV right on
my desktop. They don't appear to be in the entertainment business
like CNBC. Although I must admit, I loved watching Rick Santelli's
Bond Market Reports and his fights with the shows Economist. That
was truly entertaining.

 

[Show-me]

Rick is the only guy I take seriously on CNBC. They have not mentioned credit card default much. Only in passing. Goldilocks or GE would not allow that kind of market crushing reporting.

 

[Guest2]

Rick is the only guy I take seriously on CNBC. They have not mentioned credit card default much. Only in passing. Goldilocks or GE would not allow that kind of market crushing reporting.

THATS a fact, Show !

 

[luv2read]

Rick is the only guy I take seriously on CNBC. They have not mentioned credit card default much. Only in passing. Goldilocks or GE would not allow that kind of market crushing reporting.

http://www.smartmoney.com/consumer/index.cfm?story=20080104

 

[Guest2]

http://www.smartmoney.com/consumer/index.cfm?story=20080104

Excellant Link L2R. It seems like it was only yesterday that Fast Money
was pumping up Visa as the "Card for Investors". I don't think we'll see
anyone saying that right now. Our finger is on the pulse ! I'm not calling
a Code Blue just yet, but the pulse is weakening and the paddles are out.
:blink:

 

[Corepuncher]

When tomarrow gives you the strongly hoped for bounce, you will have
gained tomarrows rewards on a half percent (more) of your money. Here's
looking at you kid ! I hope it works out in your favor !

Interestingly, I had 50.50% in G...I'm surprised they didn't round that up to 51%? Maybe you can move up to .99%...and they are only keying off the "whole number"? That would be some bad programming!

 

[luv2read]

Interestingly, I had 50.50% in G...I'm surprised they didn't round that up to 51%? Maybe you can move up to .99%??

yes.

 

[Guest2]

Interestingly, I had 50.50% in G...I'm surprised they didn't round that up to 51%? Maybe you can move up to .99%??

I believe they have NO control over partial percentages. If they rounded
the (G) up to 51% and did your partial percentage IFT, you would end up
with 101%. And yes, up to 0.99% is accurate. This fact and Future Contrib's
into the (C) could almost look like DCA'ing downward.

 

[Guest2]

With conversation abound, I didn't want anyone looking for the O/D
Tracker information. Here's a repost for the community of Love & Greed.


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08)+0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08)+0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08)-0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Not Seen For A Long Time (TBA)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

IMHO, the Dow dosen't have the strength to stop a dip into the 10,000
arena. Financials will drive the S&P into the 1,100 arena (C Fund). The
Wilshire 4500 looks to outperform during the down trend, but will be slow
to react when the market turns around (S Fund). Last but not least, we
have the (I Fund). Faster to lose, faster to gain. But the dog is wagging
its tail and I think the US Markets is the dog.

 

[Guest2]

FUTURES MOVE UP ON MARKETS LOVE OF MERRIL's MOVE

http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/29/markets/stockswatch/index.htmhttp://money.cnn.com/2008/07/29/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

 

[luv2read]

Daily Briefing
By Colin Barr
July 29, 2008, 6:57 am
More writedowns for Citi?

Ready for another wave of writedowns? Deutsche Bank analyst Mike Mayo is. On the heels of Monday’s messy news from Merrill Lynch (MER), which sold a huge portfolio of collateralized debt obligations at a big loss and raised yet more capital to offset its latest round of mortgage-related losses, Mayo is forecasting that Citi (C) will take an added $8 billion in CDO writedowns in its third quarter. The comments come a day after Mayo and another analyst, Merrill’s Guy Moszkowitz, forecast $2.5 billion in third-quarter writedowns at another mortgage-racked investment bank, Lehman (LEH). Shares of both Lehman and Merrill tumbled 10% in trading Monday.
After the market closed Monday, Merrill said it would sell $30.6 billion in CDOs to Lone Star Funds for $6.7 billion - 22 cents on the dollar. The New York-based firm had been carrying the CDOs at $11.1 billion, so the sale forced a $4.4 billion writedown and prompted the company to sell $8.5 billion in new stock to investors including Temasek, the Singapore-based sovereign wealth fund that took a big chunk of Merrill back in December at much higher prices. That capital-raise contained provisions sheltering Temasek from the dilution of its stake, and accordingly Merrill was forced to pay out $2.5 billion to compensate the firm. In turn, Temasek agreed to invest that money and almost a billion more in Merrill’s new capital raising, which contains no so-called reset provisions.
The announcement comes just two weeks after Merrill sold its stake in financial services provider Bloomberg back to the company’s founder, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, for more than $4 billion. Merrill chief John Thain said the latest transactions “materially enhance the company’s capital position and financial flexibility going forward.” But like Mayo, many investors are probably more apt to wonder how big the next round of writedowns will be at Merrill’s rivals.

...

 

[tsptalk]

Just a final thought before calling it a night. Some of you might remember
that I shared a similar thought a few days back. Here's something to put
into that mixed drink your having. The following are the (G) Fund results
for the past few weeks. Take note of MONDAYS payout.

Mon 7/14 +.0041
Tues7/15 +.0013
Wed 7/16 +.0014
Thr 7/17 +.0013
Fri 7/18 +.0014

Mon 7/21 +.0040
Tues7/22 +.0014
Wed 7/23 +.0013
Thr 7/24 +.0014
Fri 7/25 +.0013

Mon 7/28 +.0041

It appears that they are taking the penny, dividing it by 7 days (so far)
and paying out (Sat,Sun,Mon) 3 days worth of gains on Mondays. Even
though we're only talking about partial pennies, Mondays are paying me
approximately $29-$30 more in returns then on (Tue's,Wed's,Thr's,Fri's).

FOOD FOR THOUGHT !

Good info! So, there can be a little strategy involved here... but according to the TSP, this is "insidious behavior". That phrase was written in a letter the TSP sent to my congressman, and later sent along to me, regarding our discussion and trading the timing the G fund payout.

 

[FogSailing]

Hi SB:

I apologize for not understanding all the terms in your your chart:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents


Date-got that one. What is the first term DLY mean? I note that ir is a positive number, whereas the YTD TSP CENTS is a negative number. I saw your "growlie" face so I assume it means stay out of I...but would appreciate your definition of terms.

Many thanks..

FS (alias Love and Greed, not to mention I could lose a few pounds..)

 

[Guest2]

Good info! So, there can be a little strategy involved here... but according to the TSP, this is "insidious behavior". That phrase was written in a letter the TSP sent to my congressman, and later sent along to me, regarding our discussion and trading the timing the G fund payout.

I remember Tom.
Ok, I admit it !
I'm insidious !

In my opinion (not humble) everything the Thrift Board did concerning
that time period was "insidious". I ignored them and paid the price for
doing so. But it chances nothing. What ever it takes, what ever they
do, I will continue to reep every benefit I can to improve my families
position and better my very much deserved retirement. With that said,
I want to thank you for coming to my thread and honoring me with your
post. I love this place. As Steady would say; "Your one special dude".

 

[Guest2]

Hi SB: I apologize for not understanding all the terms in your your chart: ......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents

Date-got that one. What is the first term DLY mean? I note that ir is a positive number, whereas the YTD TSP CENTS is a negative number. I saw your "growlie" face so I assume it means stay out of I...but would appreciate your definition of terms. Many thanks..

FS, Id be very happy to assist.

Date: Date of the return information (usually after 7:30pm)

DLY % Diff: The "Daily" percentage difference for that day when
comparing the EFA daily results against the (I) Fund's daily results.
Sometimes the (I) Fund does better then the EFA (percentage wise)
and you'll see a positive (+). Other times, the (I) Fund will do worse.
Thats when you'll see a negative (-).

YTD TSP CENTS: I add the DAILY % difference to the YTD % difference,
then translating the YTD % Difference into YTD TSP cents.

The Growlie Face: Actually, the faces are a mixture of mood and position.
The higher you go on the O/D Tracker, the more money the (I) owes the
Fund Managers. They must keep the YTD %'s close enough to reflect the
Indexes. Or in this case, the EFA (not a index). Going to the "High" area
is BAD because of the Debt we will have. Thus, a Growlie face . When
the debt is finally paid down, the tracker will eventually go to the "low"
area. you'll usually see a smiley face in that area. It doesn't mean to
get out of a fund. More so, it means its not the best time to go into the
(I) Fund. On the other side of the Tracker, its all different. (opposite).
When the (I) Fund reaches the "High" area on the Deficit side, Its the
absolute best time to be in the (I) Fund. In late June, the Fund Managers
did a reverse from the Deficit Side to the Overpayment Side. Ask me any
questions you would like in addition, because after reading this back to
myself, even I was confused ! :toung:

 

[luv2read]

Good info! So, there can be a little strategy involved here... but according to the TSP, this is "insidious behavior". That phrase was written in a letter the TSP sent to my congressman, and later sent along to me, regarding our discussion and trading the timing the G fund payout.

It's also posted for posterity in the Federal Register with the new rule.

 

[Guest2]

It's also posted for posterity in the Federal Register with the new rule.

In the Federal Regisrty too huh.
Now its Officially Documented Bull Crap !
Gosh, I'm starting to have flashbacks !
I'll stop here, rants on this topic come
rather easy for me. :notrust:

 

[luv2read]

In the Federal Regisrty too huh.
Now its Officially Documented Bull Crap !
Gosh, I'm starting to have flashbacks !
I'll stop here, rants on this topic come
rather easy for me. :notrust:

Way too easy for me to pull that paragraph up and put it here...but that would really ruin everyone's day...and just make me mad all over again. So instead...some entertainment.

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