Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

IMO energy sector prices are at the "buy level" so ... big boys money out of stocks into commodities again, and into oil stocks to bring them back up for a selloff next week or even sooner. Financials and oils still manipulating...and lots of frantic meetings with SEC about speculation regulation. Getting their licks in while they can.

When oil started to drop, financials appeared to pick up and the tough talk
about the dollar started to come over the airwaves, investors grasped at
a few economic reports and earnings to start a Bear Rally. (i think). Under
it all, reality was lurking in the background. Thats why I believe any type
of Buy must be short and sweet. Even if you only pick up a 1%, two days
later, you could be down twice that much.

This is a scary market right now. You get the feeling it is barely holding on. There is a lot of selling going on right now. One would think it would be a buyers market but that is not happening. Got that feeling the dow could drop below 10000 again.

With unlimited IFT's one could put their toes in and increase their shares
as the market went down. (DCA). Now we're forced to Hit&Run until the
bottom forms and invest for the month, quarter or year. Risk of getting
cut while catching that falling knife is high.

I hope everyone is safely tucked away in G because I'm hoping the market spends this week tanking so I can buy more shares.

The market is too tough to speculate on a bottom right now. Caution !

Good afternoon, My first post but my sentiment is that we are heading much lower as in 10,000 or blow on Dow so I see no need to be anywhere but G fund until we hit close to bottom and see which fund looks most oversold then move 50 % there. Best of Luck, Dave

Davehop21, Welcome to the madness ! Stop by often ! Read my response
to JTH. It applies to your post. (maybe a little more then JTH's post). I'm
glad you stopped by, your views are always welcome !

I'LL BE BACK AFTER 7:30PM WITH TODAYS O/D TRACKER UPDATE

 

[Guest2]

no update yet :worried:

 

[Guest2]

ok, take off your shoes and use your toes too !
no update yet​

 

[Guest2]

There's not much to say about today. Nigeria needs to settle down,
Financials need to poop or get off the pot. Take their loses alway and
you'd be seeing a different market YTD. The update shows the (I) Fund
lost 0.25 tsp cents today. This added to the Overpayment and moved
the (I) to the "high" area of the tracker. I've said that up is good, today
is no exception. Although the (I) Fund lost money, it did not lose as much
as the EFA. But now it appears we're in Rollercoaster Mode. ie..............
(Low, Medium, High, Medium, High) Wheeeeeee ! My gut says Tuesday
we'll see a down move (even though there's still more room up) within
the O/D Tracker. If true & tomarrow is a bad market day, Ouch ! If true
and tomarrow is a good market day, the (I) will not be so giving.
Good Luck In All Your Endevors !

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08)+0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08)+0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08)-0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents
(7/24/08) +0.4519%-0.3797 tsp cents
(7/25/08) -0.5288%-0.2868 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/28/08) +0.4966% -0.3660 tsp cents



THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Not Seen For A Long Time (TBA)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

You are one behind me in the tracker. If tomorrow is like today you will leap past me and show this newbie who is boss.

May the force be with us.

 

[Birchtree]

One large reason the market went down today is that the Donkey Congress is trying to encourage the banks to take hits and save the home owner that got in too deep. But the program is strictly voluntary and simply won't work. Common sense will return tomorrow.

 

[JTH]

No worries SB

I'm firmly entrenched in the bear camp and have no intensions of buying anytime soon. I still have to catch up on my research so I havn't even begun to think about an entry point. If need be I'll stay in G for as long as it takes and untill I find something to believe in.

Remember all the down-turns in June with the wimpy dead cat bounces? It kind of reminds me of the last 3 days...

 

[Corepuncher]

Squale,

I thought you'd be proud of me. Without any transfers left this month, I transfered 0.5% out of G and into C and S!

 

[Guest2]

SB,

You are one behind me in the tracker. If tomorrow is like today you will leap past me and show this newbie who is boss.

May the force be with us.

Nasa, there can be only one (Highlander). Champs like us, baby we
were born to run. (Springstein). I know, cornier then a ethenol plant !

TSP Stock Funds are down -14.92% , -10.61%, -14.74% respectively.
How happy are we ? Not satisfied, but damn happy ! Being #30 & #31
will have to do for now. My goal is to beat "all" funds, as I've done the
past three years. That means beating the (F) and the (G) from here.
I think we have a good shot and plenty of time to do so. The force is
strong in us and will be with us always.

 

[Guest2]

One large reason the market went down today is that the Donkey Congress is trying to encourage the banks to take hits and save the home owner that got in too deep. But the program is strictly voluntary and simply won't work. Common sense will return tomorrow.

Banks can't afford hits right now. I agree, it won't work. Common sense
is like a tree. We can only wonder which branch (road) the Market will
take. After all, the problems in Financials, Mortgages, Oil and the Dollar
go to the very root (heart) of why this market is so risky right now.

 

[Guest2]

No worries SB

I'm firmly entrenched in the bear camp and have no intensions of buying anytime soon. I still have to catch up on my research so I havn't even begun to think about an entry point. If need be I'll stay in G for as long as it takes and untill I find something to believe in.

Remember all the down-turns in June with the wimpy dead cat bounces? It kind of reminds me of the last 3 days...

Just to clear the record, I'm not sure if this Market qualifies as a genuine
Bear Market. Some say yes, some say no. And all of them know better then I.

I'm on the fence with this one. Conflicting (positive economic) reports
and half way descent earnings (more then half reported in the SP500)
gives a Bull hope. But as I stated below (Birthday Birch) the root of the
problems will eventually affect those positives as well. Someone needs
to find solutions that are realistic and fast. If its not too late already.

 

[Guest2]

Squale,I thought you'd be proud of me. Without any transfers left this month, I transfered 0.5% out of G and into C and S!

When tomarrow gives you the strongly hoped for bounce, you will have
gained tomarrows rewards on a half percent (more) of your money. Here's
looking at you kid ! I hope it works out in your favor !

 

[Guest2]

Just a final thought before calling it a night. Some of you might remember
that I shared a similar thought a few days back. Here's something to put
into that mixed drink your having. The following are the (G) Fund results
for the past few weeks. Take note of MONDAYS payout.

Mon 7/14 +.0041
Tues7/15 +.0013
Wed 7/16 +.0014
Thr 7/17 +.0013
Fri 7/18 +.0014

Mon 7/21 +.0040
Tues7/22 +.0014
Wed 7/23 +.0013
Thr 7/24 +.0014
Fri 7/25 +.0013

Mon 7/28 +.0041

It appears that they are taking the penny, dividing it by 7 days (so far)
and paying out (Sat,Sun,Mon) 3 days worth of gains on Mondays. Even
though we're only talking about partial pennies, Mondays are paying me
approximately $29-$30 more in returns then on (Tue's,Wed's,Thr's,Fri's).


FOOD FOR THOUGHT !

 

[Guest2]

Futures are Strong right now. Since the market topped out last week,
there have been two groups that have declined much more than others:
Financials, and Consumer Discretionary stocks. (autos, home builders, and
retailers). They were the two groups most beaten up in June, and for
good reason.

Bears bet heavily that we were in a bear market, and the majority remain
convinced we are STILL in a bear market. Those who are betting that we
remain in a bear market are operating under several assumptions:

1) Consumer Spending will remain weak due to slow income growth,
higher inflation, and the hangover from housing. One last thing, the
weakness will become even more apparent once the temporary effect
of the Almighty Rebate becomes evident to each and every one of us.

2) The Labor Market will remain weak.

3) Even if we hit some kind of bottom from writedowns, financials will
have trouble growing their business due to several factors;

a) Capital Base Shrank
b) Lower Consumer and Commercial Loan demand.

The only good news here is that this is likely to keep the Fed on hold.
Ben "Obewon" Bernanke isn't going to have much influence over the
market otherwise.

 

[luv2read]

Just to clear the record, I'm not sure if this Market qualifies as a genuine
Bear Market. Some say yes, some say no. And all of them know better then I.

I'm on the fence with this one. Conflicting (positive economic) reports
and half way descent earnings (more then half reported in the SP500)
gives a Bull hope. But as I stated below (Birthday Birch) the root of the
problems will eventually affect those positives as well. Someone needs
to find solutions that are realistic and fast. If its not too late already.

The reports as well as the earnings are a joke. A loss is still a loss; even if it's not as big a loss as anticipated, that doesn't make it "positive earnings." Positive spin in the headlines to pump the market but when you read the meat its still bad news. Doesn't anybody look beyond the first line? I remember last year, lots of bad news was totally ignored and nobody could figure out what was feeding the market rise - just went with the flow.

 

[Guest2]

On Show-me's Thread, today the Oscar video demostrates in various
markets (including the FTSE, DAX, S&P, DJIA) that a Bearish Indicator
can be seen througout. Specifically; The Head&Shoulders Pattern.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=173201&postcount=1793 :worried:

 

[Guest2]

The reports as well as the earnings are a joke. A loss is still a loss; even if it's not as big a loss as anticipated, that doesn't make it "positive earnings." Positive spin in the headlines to pump the market but when you read the meat its still bad news. Doesn't anybody look beyond the first line? I remember last year, lots of bad news was totally ignored and nobody could figure out what was feeding the market rise - just went with the flow.

Those who read further and understand the markets beyond the headlines
are the Investors who truly make informed decisions. Emotion can be more
powerful then a Bear chasing you off a cliff or a Bull charging you uphill.

BY THE WAY,,,,,,,GOOD MORNING !

 

[luv2read]

Good morning to you SB, and everyone!

An excerpt from Reuters early morning:

HONG KONG, July 29 (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell around 2 percent on Tuesday, after Merrill Lynch, the third-largest U.S. investment bank, announced a $5.7 billion write-down related to bad debt, draining confidence in the shaky financial sector.

Merrill Lynch said it will take a $5.7 billion third-quarter write-down as it unloads huge amounts of risky debt, and will raise $8.5 billion by selling new stock, a move that could dilute the value of existing shares.

The Wall Street investment bank and brokerage announced its plans less than two weeks after posting a $4.9 billion second-quarter loss, hurt by more than $9 billion of write-downs.

Coming a day after one of Australia's top banks said it would write down more than $1 billion in credit-related losses,Merrill's news increased fears that a year-old financial crisis that has battered markets has further to run.

"Equity markets are capitulating on expectations of a deepening of the global banking crisis. Asian and emerging markets are experiencing capitulation due to risk aversion," Sean Darby, chief Asia strategist at Nomura in Hong Kong, said in a note to clients.

$9B write down in 2nd quarter, $5.7B 3rd quarter. Who's next?

 

[Guest2]

Speaking of emotion, in this type of Market, It wouldn't surprise me if
investors trying to call a bottom are still fully invested. Kinda like all or
nothing at all. Take a look at some of our membership who, for what
ever reason, feel its time to be 100% into the C, S, or I. Especially
those who've experienced double digit loses YTD. If emotion isn't the
thing which controls that kind of behavior (desperate to recover), then
we wouldn't be seeing those same members absorbing additional loses
as they have throughout the year. I'd rather miss the bottom, then try
to catch that falling knife. Sometimes, you have to accept bad decisions
and look forward at todays reality. I'm not blasting any member who
find that prices are inviting and made some temporary moves to catch
some pennies. I'm talking about the Emotion Driven members who have
become stubborn and refuse to let go because "you don't lose until you
sell". True to a degree, but if you have to wait until 2015 to break even,
emotion can truly be a Bear !

 

[Guest2]

Good morning to you SB, and everyone.
An excerpt from Reuters early morning:$9B write down in 2nd quarter, $5.7B 3rd quarter. Who's next?

Non Sub-Prime Mortgage Foreclosures and Credit Card Companies, I think ?