Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I just wanted to post some changes to the key that I'll be using
in the near future. I made a IFT effective COB today. I'm staying
in the (F) Fund for now. I don't want to be in Bonds when the FED
announces the rise in interest rates. I'll be checking when that is
scheduled to happen sometime today.


THE KEY:
- .51 thru- .28 Barclays Folly !
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment, (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (Bonus Imminent)

 

[JTH]

Today might have been a good day to buy in, who knows?

I'm still sitting at 75G 25F. I just haven't seen anything worth using my last IFT on. These drops have been consisently bigger then the rallys and at this point I'm convienced I can get a better deal somewhere down the line.

Once the S&P breaks the downward trendline, I may jump in.

 

[Guest2]

Ok, for those of you who follow my O/D Tracking, on June 25, 2008 the
never seen before swing of -0.3834 tsp cents to the Overpayment side
may have given this tracker a "new reality". To simply utilize the same
standard (pre-6/25/08) would help no one. In response, I've adjusted
the tracker key to represent (what appears) to be the new trend. This
is a ongoing situation and may need adjustments. Heck, Barclays could
all of a sudden need the bucks and reverse it yet again to the deficit
side of the tracker. Its gonna look a little weird at first, but the idea
remains the same. Thanks for your patience and understanding.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/23/08)- 0.166% +0.1704 tsp cents
(6/24/08)+0.543% +0.0503 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.3834 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.4212 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.4552 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
THE KEY:
- .5000 thru- .4000 Barclays Folly !
- .4000 thru -.3500 High Overpayment, (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3500 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2585 Low Overpayment, (Goal is Met)
- .2500 thru -.2000 ? TBD
- .2000 thru -.1500 ? TBD
- .1500 thru -.1000 ? TBD
- .1000 thru -.0500 ? TBD
- .0500 thru -.0000 ? TBD

 

[Guest2]

If Barclays is trying to get a cash infusion of 9 Billion, how far fetched
would it be for them to give the (I) a never seen before overpayment
in order to justify they're lack of liquidity. If the overpayment wasn't
made, would they be forced to only seek a smaller amount? I'm not
much for conspiracies and I have no idea how this kind of thing works.
Anyone more knowledgable is invited to post their educated answer.
Hell, anyone with a simple guess ?

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/23/08)- 0.166% +0.1704 tsp cents
(6/24/08)+0.543% +0.0503 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.3834 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.4212 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.4552 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents

THE KEY:
- .5000 thru- .4000 Barclays Folly !
- .4000 thru -.3500 High Overpayment, (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3500 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2585 Low Overpayment, (Goal is Met)
- .2500 thru -.2000 ? TBD
- .2000 thru -.1500 ? TBD
- .1500 thru -.1000 ? TBD
- .1000 thru -.0500 ? TBD
- .0500 thru -.0000 ? TBD

 

[malyla]

Squalebear,

I have noticed something very hinky with my monthly returns. A quick primer: I logged into my account and recorded my allocation percentages, dollar amount and contribution history for the 1st of each month from the 1990s to the present. I then recorded the monthly return rates from the open site.

So I calculated the monthly return percentage using the allocation percentages, dollar amount at the 1st of each month and contribution amounts and compared these returns to the returns calculated from the monthly returns and allocation percentages. <confused yet>

The problem is that from 1991-May 2003 these two calculations match within +/-0.03%, but after May 2003 to the present, these return percentages RADICALLY vary from each other. I use the same equations before and after the May 2003 time periods.

There seems to be major overpayments and adjustments going on. This leaves an overall difference between the returns calculated from my actual fund compared to the returns from the reported monthly returns plus allocation amounts at +2%. I have no idea why Barclay would have loss the ability perform a calculation they did so well with prior to May 2003. Maybe this is related to what is going on in the I fund.

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear,

I have noticed something very hinky with my monthly returns. A quick primer: I logged into my account and recorded my allocation percentages, dollar amount and contribution history for the 1st of each month from the 1990s to the present. I then recorded the monthly return rates from the open site.

So I calculated the monthly return percentage using the allocation percentages, dollar amount at the 1st of each month and contribution amounts and compared these returns to the returns calculated from the monthly returns and allocation percentages. <confused yet> NO, I FOLLOW

The problem is that from 1991-May 2003 these two calculations match within +/-0.03%, but after May 2003 to the present, these return percentages RADICALLY vary from each other. I use the same equations before and after the May 2003 time periods. INTERESTING !

There seems to be major overpayments and adjustments going on. This leaves an overall difference between the returns calculated from my actual fund compared to the returns from the reported monthly returns plus allocation amounts at +2%. I have no idea why Barclay would have loss the ability perform a calculation they did so well with prior to May 2003. Maybe this is related to what is going on in the I fund.

IF YOU LOOK CLOSELY AT YOUR NEW MONTHLY STATEMENTS, YOU'LL SEE A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE FORMULA THEY UTILIZE TO FIGURE OUT TIME WEIGHTD GAINS. I DON'T BELIEVE THE (I) FUND OR THE OVERPAYMENTS HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH THE VARIENCES. MAYBE THIS LINK CAN HELP TO GIVE YOU A MORE ACCURATE RESULT. OTHERWISE, I'M AT A TOTAL LOSS ! PLEASE FORGIVE ME IF THIS HAS LITTLE TO DO WITH THE TOPIC AT HAND, IT WAS SIMPLY A GUESS. PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF YOU COME UP WITH A ANSWER AND BY ALL MEANS, DOUBLE CHECK YOUR STATEMENTS YOU MAY HAVE KEPT; http://www.aicpa.org/PUBS/jofa/feb98/invest.htm

 

[Guest2]

How excited was I, when I tested a third IFT theory in one month and it worked ! :nuts:

My balance at the close of business for Monday ended up looking like this;
(G) = 54.92%
(F) = 45.08%

I have used all of my normal IFT's for the month and was supposed to go
back into the (G) from this point until August. Imagine my surprise when I
tried to rebalance my account and it worked. I put in a IFT as follows;
(G) = 54.00%
(F) = 46.00%

The IFT allowed me to take the (less the 1%) from the (G) and round the
(F) up to the next whole percentage (less then 1%).

As a side note, I also made a Contribution Allocation change so the money
I get from our upcoming contributions will go into the (F) Fund as well. After
the contributions come in, I plan to change it back to the (G) as it was prior.

CONFIRMATION WILL BE PUBLISHED ONCE THE TSP WEBSITE IS UPDATED TO
REFECT THAT MY REQUEST (DID NOT GET THE UNAUTHORIZED NOTIFICATION)
ACTUALLY WENT THROUGH AS IT WAS ENTERED.

 

[JTH]

How excited was I, when I tested a third IFT theory in one month and it worked ! :nuts:

Glad to know it worked out for you, this info will come in handy.

Well I made my last IFT for the month. I locked in 75G & 25F's profits.
By today I'll be 50G 50C. If we get a rally, then great. Regardless, this is a short term move.

Good luck everyone!

 

[Guest2]

Here's another fun filed factoid. Although the (G) Fund is paying daily
while utilizing the 4 decimal system, it would appear that Mondays are
paying us for Sat/Sun/Mon. If the current interest rate dictates a full
penny within (?? six days ??) then the weekend is added to Mondays
partial penny reward. This leaves Monday as a better payout, then
the following three partial pennies. Did I confuse you yet ?

 

[presskh]

Here's another fun filed factoid. Although the (G) Fund is paying daily
while utilizing the 4 decimal system, it would appear that Mondays are
paying us for Sat/Sun/Mon. If the current interest rate dictates a full
penny within (?? six days ??) then the weekend is added to Mondays
partial penny reward. This leaves Monday as a better payout, then
the following three partial pennies. Did I confuse you yet ?

Good point!

 

[Guest2]

Glad to know it worked out for you, this info will come in handy.

Well I made my last IFT for the month. I locked in 75G & 25F's profits.
By today I'll be 50G 50C. If we get a rally, then great.
Regardless, this is a short term move.

Good luck everyone!

If you check your %'s on the TSP website and find that your percentages
have changed to 50.1% (G) and 50.2% (C),,,,,then,,,,,, you can add to the
(C) by doing a IFT of 49% (G) and 51% (C),,,,, I know its only a
small amount, but hell, grab the pennies they give you !

 

[Guest2]

Good point!

Presskh, its been a while ! Thanks for the Honorble Mention ! :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

I wish I had thought of putting 1% in S & I today. I may do that in the future, to leave more options on the table, espeically if it's ealy in the month and I'm out of IFTs.

 

[Guest2]

Even with the added $$$$$ going into the (F) Fund today, I'm hoping to
lower the amount should it go up much more. This is in anticipation of a
short term Bear Rally coming soon. Being stuck in the (G) or (F) means
that I'm also hoping for sideways movement until August within the stock
funds. (2 weeks). But something tells me that I'm going to miss the Big
Move up and the rally is just around the corner. Will it be a fake the first
time around ? A Short Squeeze appears to be way overdue ! We'll see !

 

[presskh]

Presskh, its been a while ! Thanks for the Honorble Mention ! :cheesy:

Bear,

I still read the forums every day - I haven't had much to say since I've been sitting on the pad for so long and since the G fund went to daily payouts. Contrary to Birch, I still think the down-slope in stocks and the economy in general will continue for awhile, with some infrequent opportunities to make a quick percentage point or two in bear rallies.

At least, that's my plan for now. But this market reminds me of Mike Tyson's reply to a reporter asking his opinion on his opponent's fight plan: "Everyone's got a plan - until I hit 'em!"

 

[Guest2]

Bear,

I still read the forums every day - I haven't had much to say since I've been sitting on the pad for so long and since the G fund went to daily payouts. Contrary to Birch, I still think the down-slope in stocks and the economy in general will continue for awhile, with some infrequent opportunities to make a quick percentage point or two in bear rallies.

At least, that's my plan for now. But this market reminds me of Mike Tyson's reply to a reporter asking his opinion on his opponent's fight plan: "Everyone's got a plan - until I hit 'em!"

I agree with you whole heartedly ! It takes a lot of patience (I need some)
to watch and wait. You should be proud that you saved 16% of your
balance, instead of being a buy & hold (until you die) sort of investor.
Crammer calls it "Buy and Homework". Even though he's referring to
individual stocks, it works with Index investing as well. But we're at a
point where the bottom appears to be less risky then the potential for
nice looking gains from here. Trying to catch the falling knife can hurt.
The time to be in stocks is when you least expect it. Thats when Iran
will announce they are dismantling all Nucular plants, or when China
drops its demand for oil by 10%. (Don't hold your breathe). But the
catalyst were looking for right now, can't be seen. Speculation at best.
Until the move happens, Tyson might take a piece of our ears home with
him. Loved the analogy, laughed until it hurt ! :laugh:

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

If you check your %'s on the TSP website and find that your percentages
have changed to 50.1% (G) and 50.2% (C),,,,,then,,,,,, you can add to the
(C) by doing a IFT of 49% (G) and 51% (C),,,,, I know its only a
small amount, but hell, grab the pennies they give you !

SB, I don't think you can go down to 49% G from 50.1%. I think you can only 'rebalance' up to or down to the next whole number, i.e. 50G 50C in your example. While you could balance up to 51 C, you couldn't take away that much from G.

And yes, you can do this rebalancing every other day, because as you pointed out, your % allocation will likely be whole numbers the day after your IFT. I don't think you can IFT 50.99%, for example.

 

[mamikin]

If you check your %'s on the TSP website and find that your percentages
have changed to 50.1% (G) and 50.2% (C),,,,,then,,,,,, you can add to the
(C) by doing a IFT of 49% (G) and 51% (C),,,,, I know its only a
small amount, but hell, grab the pennies they give you !

This is good information to have - thanks for sharing it with us, Squalebear.

 

[Guest2]

SB, I don't think you can go down to 49% G from 50.1%. I think you can only 'rebalance' up to or down to the next whole number, i.e. 50G 50C in your example. While you could balance up to 51 C, you couldn't take away that much from G.

And yes, you can do this rebalancing every other day, because as you pointed out, your % allocation will likely be whole numbers the day after your IFT. I don't think you can IFT 50.99%, for example.

I took 54.92% in the (G) and made it 54%
This took away 0.92% from the (G). While
increasing my 45.08% to 46.00%

I'll have confirmation tonight, but thats
exactly what the IFT authorized me to do.
You are correct, I couldn't bring (G) down
to 49%. That would be more then a 1%
move. Thanks for the correction.

Bottom Line, I took almost 1% out of the (G)
and added it to the (F) while having no more
unrestricted IFT's.

 

[Guest2]

This is good information to have - thanks for sharing it with us, Squalebear.

Thanks Mamikin, make sure you read Futureatrader correction just below.
He is absolutely correct. He also mentions the very accurate "every other
day" fact. Gives a whole new meaning to Shared Services ! Thats why I
love this site !