Squalebear's Account Talk

[poolman]

On a more serious note. We had 2 good news stories with Oil and the Financials. Still I would have hoped for a stonger rally then what we got.

Tomorrow should be interesting to see. I wonder if this latest catilist is enough to push us up past and keep us above the 1275ish resistence from the two bottoms in March?

This is exciting, especially from the sidelines... :blink:

It is,

 

[Guest2]

It is,

Ok, its a square with a red X in the middle. (LoL) :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

We are finally out of the "Holy Cow" area of the key. A huge payback
of 1.14% (compared to the EFA) was made. This is what happens
when an overpayment is due. We have more to go. Today, the EFA
was up +.52% but the (I) Fund lost -.62%. The difference added to
the YTD figures left us with a .2585 tsp cent overpayment due
(1.21%) to be paid back. Anyone in the (I) Fund today is going to be
a little disappointed to see a loss and not a gain. The O/D Tracking
shows that something like this could happen. It also shows it may
happen again in the near future. How long will it take, I don't know.
Will the Fund Managers add to this adjusted overpayment again, I
don't know. What I do know is, the (I) Fund trends to be riskier then
normal if there's a overpayment due. Where the (C) and (S) will be
more stable with their returns vs. the SPX and DWCPF.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/23/08)- 0.166% +0.1704 tsp cents
(6/24/08)+0.543% +0.0503 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.3834 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.4212 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.4552 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents

THE KEY:
- .51 thru- .28 Holy Cow !
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (I) Fund (Giveback Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment to the I-Fund (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent

 

[JTH]

What I do know is, the (I) Fund trends to be riskier then normal if there's a overpayment due. Where the (C) and (S) will be more stable with their returns vs. the SPX and DWCPF.

I really want to like the I fund, honestly I do!

But this is what peeves me. There are so many variables involved in the I fund, it's just too hard to track and predict, especially with the new rules in place. I got bitten today with taking out my 15% I. What a slaughter the I-train has been on.

Thanks for keeping us up to date on the EFA/I difference. I can't say you didn't warn me...

 

[Guest2]

I really want to like the I fund, honestly I do!

But this is what peeves me. There are so many variables involved in the I fund, it's just too hard to track and predict, especially with the new rules in place. I got bitten today with taking out my 15% I. What a slaughter the I-train has been on.

Thanks for keeping us up to date on the EFA/I difference. I can't say you didn't warn me.

High Risk, High Rewards ! But sometimes the train runs over you. The (I)
Fund was the one to be in during the Bull. Now, as you said, Restrictions
can kill ya. The Exchange Rate can kill ya. The ECB can kill ya. So many
things, but add a overpayment to the mix and its just one fund I'd stay
away from. (For Now). The (I) Fund will come back as the strongest of
the group. For right now, its 1.3% lower YTD then the (C). But what a
come back it'll be, when the time comes. Here's hoping its tomarrow.

 

[luv2read]

what really stinks...is that L Funds are rebalanced DAILY. Take a look at today....I Fund LOST..all of the L Funds GAINED....go figure. Why was none of that overpayment felt in the L Funds??? Especially the 2040? Hmmmmm?:nuts::blink:

 

[Guest2]

what really stinks...is that L Funds are rebalanced DAILY. Take a look at today....I Fund LOST..all of the L Funds GAINED....go figure. Why was none of that overpayment felt in the L Funds??? Especially the 2040? Hmmmmm?

My guess, even in the L2040 you'll find that 76% of fund allocations are
put into the G,F,C,S. Where the (I) Fund is weighted at 23% for July. This
alone could mean that the (I) Fund still lost within the L's, but no where
near enough to offset the tremendous day all the other fund had. But to
be in the (I) alone, only meant disappointment.

July 2008 Allocations within the L2040; Yesterdays Performance;
(G) 8.3%............+0.01%
(F) 9.7%............+0.37%
(C) 40.8%..........+1.74%
(S) 17.4%..........+2.40%
(I). 23.8%..........-0.62%

The L Fund vehicles are rebalanced daily and the expense associated
with such a process is unfamiliar to me. However, it would appear that
the costs associated were likely absorbed by the gains of the day.

 

[Guest2]

IFT TODAY AT COB:

25% (G)
45% (F)
05% (C)
10% (S)
15% (I)

With 100% of my money in the Stock Funds (C), the notion to sell on any
rally keeps ringing in my ears. By Lowering my allocations to 25% stocks &
hedging against loses with 45% Bonds, I believe (if the rally continues) I'll
still see some profit. Should Iran tensions increase and oil rebounds upward,
I'm gonna try to be patient before making any moves back to the (G).

Oh yes, the EFA is up, I have a feeling that the (I) will do well enough
to grab some extra pennies. This is totaly against the overpayment
view I've been publishing, we'll just have to wait and see how it pans
out. I still believe its the riskiest part of my allocations.

 

[JTH]

Looks like you have a good plan. I like the way F has been acting as of late. I currently sit 75g 25F, and I'll sit here and wait for a bottom to consolidate or fall out. I don't have much hopes for a rally....

bring on the pain...

 

[nasa1974]

IFT TODAY AT COB:

25% (G)
45% (F)
05% (C)
10% (S)
15% (I)

With 100% of my money in the Stock Funds (C), the notion to sell on any
rally keeps ringing in my ears. By Lowering my allocations to 25% stocks &
hedging against loses with 45% Bonds, I believe (if the rally continues) I'll
still see some profit. Should Iran tensions increase and oil rebounds upward,
I'm gonna try to be patient before making any moves back to the (G).

Oh yes, the EFA is up, I have a feeling that the (I) will do well enough
to grab some extra pennies. This is totaly against the overpayment
view I've been publishing, we'll just have to wait and see how it pans
out. I still believe its the riskiest part of my allocations.

SB,

Nice to see you are spreading your wings. Contrary to your recent writings.

Of course we have been green all morning and noon hits and C & S go red. "I" is still showing profits and oil is just up slightly but lower than overnight trading. We might be in for a nice ride the next couple of days.

May the force be with us.

 

[Guest2]

The unfortunite reality is; yesterday and maybe today, is all the rally
we're gonna see. I hope not, but thats the way it seems to me. Oil is
not responding to the ugly inventory numbers (Oil Rally). This might
catch up with us tomarrow as the dollar is dropping as I write this.

I lowered my (C) Fund allocations big time because of the resistance
I'm seeing at 1275. I could be as wrong as a Peruvian Frog Fart, but
I don't see 1280's coming before another let down within this Bear
driven market. Boy, that prognostication really puts me out there !
Its my gut ! If I used my head, the (G) and me would have a better
relationship then we do. Good Luck To You and All My Friends !
:worried:

 

[JTH]

You may be right my friend...

I noticed in an article I read last night that the bottom trendline of the VIX coincided with the S&P 500's peaks. Every time the VIX touched the bottom of the trendline, it was a Peak for stocks. The VIX touched the trendline yesterday.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

Nice to see you are spreading your wings. Contrary to your recent writings.

Of course we have been green all morning and noon hits and C & S go red. "I" is still showing profits and oil is just up slightly but lower than overnight trading. We might be in for a nice ride the next couple of days.

May the force be with us.

Optomistically Overly Cautious Investment Technique ! :nuts:

Like I just wrote to JTH, I wouldn't be up 2.38% YTD if
I listened to my head.

 

[Guest2]

You may be right my friend...

I read that within another thread. My thoughts about the VIX are near
the confusion stage. Some are waiting for it to go above 30. Anything
under 20 has historically been positive for a strong rally. Others don't
hold the VIX as a very reliable tool. Hell, I don't know. I'll just use the
information and throw it into my "Chicken Stew" pot. Stir it around and
see if it turns my stomach or turns my head.

 

[JTH]

I'll just use the
information and throw it into my "Chicken Stew" pot. Stir it around and
see if it turns my stomach or turns my head.

That's the probelm with the VIX. Everyone and their grandmother knows about it. Everything I watch and read talks about the VIX and that darn supposed magical number 30. The more they talk about it, the less accurate an indicator it becomes... JMHO

 

[Guest2]

That's the probelm with the VIX. Everyone and their grandmother knows about it. Everything I watch and read talks about the VIX and that darn supposed magical number 30. The more they talk about it, the less accurate an indicator it becomes... JMHO

The way of the world, Flip That Coin ! :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Actually during the bullish rally of 1995 the VIX was trending up - so it's not a reliable signal by any stretch of the imagination. And 1995 was essentially a 60 degree move - not exactly parabolic but close enough.

 

[Guest2]

Actually during the bullish rally of 1995 the VIX was trending up - so it's not a reliable signal by any stretch of the imagination. And 1995 was essentially a 60 degree move - not exactly parabolic but close enough.

Thanks Birch !

 

[Guest2]

We did not get a reversal in the overpayment today, We added more
debt. Back in the holy cow area brings me closer to believing that the
O/D Tracker is likely to be adjusted next week to reflect the new norm
of leaning on the "overpayment" side of the Key. Otherwise, I'm back
in the red YTD and totaly frustrated. I'll leave it at that. Give me a few
days and I'll end up happy over not being down -14% as some funds are.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents


THE KEY:
- .51 thru- .28 Holy Cow !
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (I) Fund (Giveback Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment to the I-Fund (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent

 

[Guest2]

The key was changed to reflect Barclays Folly instead of Holy Cow.
I did this out of the need to be accurate. :nuts: Congratulations to my
fellow TSP participants, every fund saw a gain today ! The key now
shows the Overpayment within the High area and I'm hoping for it
to become a little more stable. No matter where it settles. The swing
this week looks like a rollercoaster. The (I) might have more debt to
payoff first, but we've been here before on Tuesday. Maybe Friday
will give me a better idea of its direction. As everyone noticed, I'm
15% into the (I) as of today. My gut told me so. Not my O/D Tracker

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents



THE KEY:
- .51 thru- .28 Barclays Folly !
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (I) Fund (Giveback Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment to the I-Fund (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent