Squalebear's Account Talk

[Frixxxx]

Hey SB,

I read your last and was interested in the chart. Where and what are you displaying? what is the name of the software?

Oh, last question: Did you say something about RISK?

 

[JTH]

A final thought before calling it a day.
Going back to May 30th, 2008 we experienced a 4 day positive run
in the TSP. Since then (to date), we've had 6 positive days (many
above 1%). But each and every time, the next day (or two) resulted
in the lose of "more" then the gains received.

That about sums it up. I was certianly glad to see the market not sell off in the last 30 minutes of trading. I would have takin some off the table today, but my comm was down and I was blind the first half of the day. Lucky it worked out.

I expect I'll retreat to G tomorrow regardless.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

For some reason it would not multi-quote. LOL dude. I really liked what you did to me. Thanks it looks like today will have a nice bounce. Lets hope it lasts a couple of days. Hope the "F" fund can have some more payback for you also.

I can still feel some uneasiness in the force, but for now may the force be with us.

Amen !

 

[Guest2]

SB,

Shows how much I am paying attention. Didn't notice that you changed your avitar. It will be interesting to listen to what "inthemoneystocks" has to say tonight. Tomorrow will be pretty tense and will more than likey dictate the market for a while. A good day, or even flat and it feels like it will stay positive until August. A bad day and we better all run back to "G" for protection. Just my gut feeling.

Until the Good outweighs the bad, be cautious ! I feel the same !

 

[Guest2]

Hey SB,

I read your last and was interested in the chart. Where and what are you displaying? what is the name of the software?

Oh, last question: Did you say something about RISK?

I was simply trying to display a chart of the Volitility Index. Some
members thought it opened at 38, it did not. The chart showed
its intraday high & low. The VIX (at that time) only went to 28.

Risk, Risk, You can't handle no Risk ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

That about sums it up. I was certianly glad to see the market not sell off in the last 30 minutes of trading. I would have takin some off the table today, but my comm was down and I was blind the first half of the day. Lucky it worked out.

I expect I'll retreat to G tomorrow regardless.

Get a better picture tomarrow and Congratulations For Today !

 

[Guest2]

A member informed me that the O/D Tracker had a error in it for Tuesday.
Indeed, there was. The YTD % difference was wrong and corrected. The
TSP Cent Overpayment was correct. This was not a tracker error, but my
being in too much of a rush and wrote the wrong figure in. Oooops !
Well, if the new reality of this tracker hold true, we are at the Low
Overpayment area. If there is no new reality, then it will go closer
to the TBA area. Good Luck for tomarrow. :embarrest:

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/23/08)- 0.166% +0.1704 tsp cents
(6/24/08)+0.543% +0.0503 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.3834 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.4212 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.4552 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents

THE KEY:
- .5000 thru- .4000 Barclays Folly !
- .4000 thru -.3500 High Overpayment, (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3500 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2585 Low Overpayment, (Goal is Met)
- .2500 thru -.2000 ? TBD
- .2000 thru -.1500 ? TBD
- .1500 thru -.1000 ? TBD
- .1000 thru -.0500 ? TBD
- .0500 thru -.0000 ? TBD

 

[JTH]

Love to see the I fund at bargin prices and I'm glad we are closer to EFAs estimate which makes it easier for me to weigh it's value!

I've noticed in the news lately they have been giving the overseas markets some more attention on the downside. It's just a trickle right now, but it may pick up if they get bored. I wonder if this means the I fund has a great deal more downside on it...

 

[Birchtree]

The I fund was the great white hope for the last 5 years out performing everything - now money is starting to shift back to this country where the value resides. It will probably just trade side ways for a couple of years before rebounding. Check out the link on sugar's thread.

 

[Guest2]

The I fund was the great white hope for the last 5 years out performing everything - now money is starting to shift back to this country where the value resides. It will probably just trade side ways for a couple of years before rebounding. Check out the link on sugar's thread.

JTH, I must agree with Birch concerning the (I) Fund not being what it
was. Not until the next great Bull Market decides to appear. The value
of US Stocks are way undervalued at this point. I'm not sure about the
sideways trading, but for now, USA all the way !

 

[JTH]

Thanks guys, I'll be watching the I fund closely and perhaps find a nice re-entry point next month. Thanks SQ for keeping me up to date with the various fluctuations with the I fund, it is a nice piece of the decision puzzel.

I know I said I'd go back to G today to lock-in profits, but I've decided to change my mind. I bought in 50C at 1214 and this may serve as the short-term bottom.

Was I lucky or did I just time it right? I'll gloat for now and just hope Mr Market doesn't throw the smack-down on me. :toung:

As with any IFT luck does play a role, but my timing was based on my interpretation of the information I've gathered from various sources. Many of those sources I follow everyday, and most of them I've picked up from fellow TSPers. The varity of Intel that can be gathered here is nothing short of amazing...

 

[presskh]

Thanks guys, I'll be watching the I fund closely and perhaps find a nice re-entry point next month. Thanks SQ for keeping me up to date with the various fluctuations with the I fund, it is a nice piece of the decision puzzel.

I know I said I'd go back to G today to lock-in profits, but I've decided to change my mind. I bought in 50C at 1214 and this may serve as the short-term bottom.

Was I lucky or did I just time it right? I'll gloat for now and just hope Mr Market doesn't throw the smack-down on me. :toung:

As with any IFT luck does play a role, but my timing was based on my interpretation of the information I've gathered from various sources. Many of those sources I follow everyday, and most of them I've picked up from fellow TSPers. The varity of Intel that can be gathered here is nothing short of amazing...

I'm not as brave - I bailed today back to the lilly pad after getting back in stocks at COB on Tuesday. I could be missing out on an extended rally - however, in a bear market, I'm just thankful to lock in some decent gains rather than losses.

Good luck!

 

[Birchtree]

I personally have never believed in the bear market nonsense - already several indexes have broken above their supposed bear market territory levels. It could have been a tremendous head fake as far as I'm concerned - but I'm not your natural herd investor I prefer the contrarian approach. And put my holy grail where my mouth yaps.

 

[Corepuncher]

I personally have never believed in the bear market nonsense - already several indexes have broken above their supposed bear market territory levels. It could have been a tremendous head fake as far as I'm concerned - but I'm not your natural herd investor I prefer the contrarian approach. And put my holy grail where my mouth yaps.

It it a bear market by definition.

 

[Braveheart]

It it a bear market by definition.

Any idea if the F Fund closes at 3:00 PM EST or 4:00 PM EST

 

[luv2read]

It it a bear market by definition.

Exactly. This is not a "correction."

 

[Birchtree]

Have it your way - you can believe what you want, it's your money.

 

[luv2read]

except for TSP, that's Barclays.

 

[Guest2]

The Overpayment drops to the TBA Area. With the EFA doing so
well today, I would have expected more of a payback. Glad the (I)
Fund received a +1.23% gain instead. No telling if this continues to
.0000 TSP Cents, but with a second Overpayment within the -.20 to
-.30 tsp cent range, I'm watch'n closely.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)
---------------------------------------
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents
---------------------------------------
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents

THE KEY:
- .5000 thru- .4000 Barclays Folly !
- .4000 thru -.3500 High Overpayment, (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3500 thru -.3000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.2585 Low Overpayment, (Goal is Met)
- .2500 thru -.2000 ? TBD (first time hear)
- .2000 thru -.1500 ? TBD
- .1500 thru -.1000 ? TBD
- .1000 thru -.0500 ? TBD
- .0500 thru -.0000 ? TBD

 

[Guest2]

Barclays said Friday that shareholders applied for 19% of the 267.1 million shares available under its open offer. The remaining 1,140 million open offer shares have been allocated to Qatar Investment Authority, Challenger, China Development Bank, Temasek and the other institutional shareholders and other investors with whom they had been conditionally placed. CAN ANYONE SAY; OVERPAYMENTS.
:worried: