Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

One man's trash is another mans treasure

Just to make you guys feel better, I'm sitting at -8.81% YTD

My Buy and Hold while deployed was more like a sit & sink...

When I got back from my deployment in March, I couldn't even place #166 on the tracker :cheesy:

Like I said before, "No More Deployments" for you mister.
Its time to make money ! Where are their priorities, Geez !
Your doing one heck of a job if your not down 14% !
Keep that chin up (both of them) ! :toung:

 

[Guest2]

Thanks for your service. Have you seen Starship Troopers? I like that idea of citizenship except for the bugs

B&H is a bear market is always rough Good luck for the rest of the year.

And BIG bugs they were !

I think if JTH goes on another mission, he'll put his money in the (G)
due to lack of control. After all, we're all control freaks here, aren't we ?
Unless were in a Certified BULL stampede !

 

[Guest2]

THE INFORMATION IS NOT NEW, JUST TRYING TO MAKE THIS
PORKER A LITTLE LESS CONFUSING AND EASIER TO THE EYE .

....DATE.....YTD % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

....DATE.....YTD % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

....DATE.....YTD % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goals is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[JTH]

Thanks for your service. Have you seen Starship Troopers? I like that idea of citizenship except for the bugs

Thanks, serving is not that hard part, my wife has the real job, she takes care of and homeschools our 3 kids. Now that's work. I love sci-fi movies and Starship troopers is one of my favs.

Keep that chin up (both of them) ! :toung:

It's all good, I've learned not to take any heart-burn over this market. My goals for this year are simple. Beat the S&P 500, then finish in the black. This is the first bear market I've delt with so I'm learning and refining my stratigies as we go. Now that I've kept a more defensive mindset, I'm doing much better then when I started out in March.

 

[JTH]

I know everyone is getting more bullish but I'm convinced there are forces out there that want to bring this market down much lower. I think the S&P500 turns around beteen 1270-1280.

With all the hoopla this week, if you think about it we really have not fixed anything. I know oil is lower, but IMHO we may still see 150 before the year is done. the next two months can bring in a hurricane and really screw things up. If nothing changes, at 1280 I'm pulling out and looking for a lower re-entry point.

Of course I'd love to be proven wrong

 

[luv2read]

SB that color combination kinda hurts my eyes....

 

[Corepuncher]

I know everyone is getting more bullish but I'm convinced there are forces out there that want to bring this market down much lower. I think the S&P500 turns around beteen 1270-1280.

With all the hoopla this week, if you think about it we really have not fixed anything. I know oil is lower, but IMHO we may still see 150 before the year is done. the next two months can bring in a hurricane and really screw things up. If nothing changes, at 1280 I'm pulling out and looking for a lower re-entry point.

Of course I'd love to be proven wrong

I agree and was going to pull a chunk out on Monday if we are up good. If not, 1280 is my next level to sell some, and all out by 1320. And to hell with the F fund..I'm going G all the way. Im not gonna try to make a bounce play on F and waste an IFT on that BS!

 

[JTH]

And to hell with the F fund..I'm going G all the way. Im not gonna try to make a bounce play on F and waste an IFT on that BS!

Man that F is a strange little fellow. It's down to it's October 2007 lows Although I do use F at times, it seems like latley it's like flipping a coin. It just seems like it's been losing it's predictability more often...

 

[FogSailing]

Couldn't agree with you guys more. I've been using my 50G, 50 Cand S for months now. Overall, I haven't been hurt too bad...but I'm thinking that around 1280, I'm headed to G for a few months. That's probably what the big boys want us all to do...bail out...but then again, I don't own half the world and CP is still important to this retiree..GL to all..

Of course, if oil were to fall to 120 or less, or some other big positive news were to occurr, I might rethink all of this..

FS

 

[Guest2]

Final Update Due To Yet Another Correction

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goals is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

I'm doing much better then when I started out in March.

JTH, I started with a goal to beat the (I) Fund, as that was the best
performer of the group. Reevaluation and limits make beating the (C)
a more realistic goal. I guess in todays reality, anything over the (G)
is a moral victory. Good Luck !

 

[Guest2]

SB that color combination kinda hurts my eyes....

L2R, The color selection is limited. If color coordination isn't the best idea
and black is easier to read, then I'll change it for everyone. I invite all to
comment, so I can make the membership who follow the O/D Tracker happy.
Thanks For The Idea

 

[Guest2]

Example of Non-Color O/D Tracker, If this is easier on the eyes, please
let me know what you think. Color Coordination is just one more thing
(willingly) I have to do if desired. Comments are Invited.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goals is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[alevin]

Squale, you really are my favorite bear, but I also have to agree with L2R. The colors are hard on the eyes. We do appreciate your efforts and understand what you're trying to do with the color coding, just too bad not better color selection. Maybe just put the

high deficit and bigger in blue,
high overpayment and worse in red,
the goalmets and coinflips in black?

 

[JTH]

The only color I'm having a hard time with is the tan color. But it all works for me. I especialy like the "We owe them" "They owe us" part. It's the least confusing version I've seen and makes it easy for me to understand right away.

Thanks... JTH

 

[Guest2]

We'll try this color combo for a while. It eliminates the Tan/Orange.
HiLites the Extremes. Adds More Black. Adds Green to "Goals Met".
The smiley faces do well to pinpoint the current conditions and the
feelings behind the results.


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !

 

[Guest2]

Squale, you really are my favorite bear, but I also have to agree with L2R. The colors are hard on the eyes. We do appreciate your efforts and understand what you're trying to do with the color coding, just too bad not better color selection. Maybe just put the

high deficit and bigger in blue,
high overpayment and worse in red,
the goalmets and coinflips in black?

THANKS, YOU ARE MY FAVORITE ALEVIN !

 

[Guest2]

the only color i'm having a hard time with is the tan color. But it all works for me. I especialy like the "we owe them" "they owe us" part. It's the least confusing version i've seen and makes it easy for me to understand right away. Thanks... Jth

tan is gone my friend !
thanks again !

 

[Guest2]

We'll try this color combo for a while. It eliminates the Tan/Orange.
HiLites the Extremes. Adds More Black. Adds Green to "Goals Met".
The smiley faces do well to pinpoint the current conditions and the
feelings behind the results.


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents :embarrest:


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin) :embarrest:
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch

VIX 24.05, which is designed to measure the volatility that options traders are expecting the stock market to experience over the subsequent 30 days. The CBOE employs a complex formula that is based on the assumption that, other things being equal, options will trade for higher prices when expected volatility rises. As a general rule of thumb, the VIX rises as the stock market falls, and vice versa.

And on the surface, it seems plausible that the VIX's rising above 30 did indeed trigger the rally. When the Dow Jones Industrial Averagehit its intraday low of 10827.71 on Wednesday, the VIX hit an intraday high at 30.81. Wednesday was the first trading session since mid-March in which the VIX had been above 30.

And just as the VIX's close in mid-March above the 30 level triggered an impressive rally, so did it this past week: By the end of Friday's trading session, the Dow was nearly 700 points higher than where it had stood less than three days previously.

To determine whether the VIX deserves the credit, I loaded into my PC's statistical package the historical data for the VIX back to 1990 (courtesy of the CBOE). On the surface, the data certainly appeared to provide strong support for the notion that a VIX above 30 is a bullish omen. Consider first how the stock market performed over the subsequent month following a VIX close above 30: On average over the past 18 years, it gained 3.8% (as measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index.

In contrast, the stock market gained just 0.7% over the subsequent month following VIX closes below 30. Not bad.

Furthermore, similar contrasts existed at the quarter, six-month and 12-month horizons. Why, then, am I resisting giving credit for this last week's rally to the VIX's close above 30? Because there's a sleight of hand involved in these summary statistics. After all, there's no way of knowing how high the VIX will rise when it first crosses the 30 threshold. Sometimes, like last week, the stock market immediately rises when that ceiling is broken, leading in most instances to the VIX falling back below 30. On other occasions, however, the stock market continues declining despite the VIX rising above 30, causing the VIX in most cases to continue rising. The all-time high for the VIX is 45.74.

So even though, other things being equal, higher VIX readings are more bullish than lower ones, there's nothing particularly magical about the 30 level. To correct for this sleight of hand, I focused on just those occasions in which the VIX initially broke the 30 ceiling, after having been below 30 for at least three months previously. The data now painted an entirely different picture: Following those occasions, the stock market on average performed no better than it did the rest of the time.

Is there anything more we can say about the VIX?

Undoubtedly, many of you will try. After previous columns in which I analyzed the VIX, and largely found it wanting as a stock-market-timing indicator, I was inundated by emails disagreeing with me. Those emails proposed any of a number of alternate ways of interpreting the VIX that supposedly are able to withstand statistical scrutiny. I've tested many of them, and almost all of them came up wanting. I've not changed my mind.

Even in those situations in which the VIX does appear to have statistically significant ability to forecast market movements, it turns out that those abilities largely derive from no special insights on the part of the VIX itself, but instead because of the stock market's tendency to rebound after steep corrections.