Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Will the Gulf of Mexico hit the air waves ?
Will there be fear of lower production from refinaries?
Will speculators drive the price of oil through the roof?
Will the Market respond in the opposite direction?

or

Will Earnings save the Day and pull out a winner?

 

[Corepuncher]

Will the Gulf of Mexico hit the air waves ?
Will there be fear of lower production from refinaries?
Will speculators drive the price of oil through the roof?
Will the Market respond in the opposite direction?

or

Will Earnings save the Day and pull out a winner?

I firmly believe that we will get a SMALL spike in energy because of the possible Hurricane. However, this 'cane will likely be weak, and, will just graze the Southern edge of where the gas/oil platforms are. You really need to go from Corpus Cristi North to get a higher density. Down by Brownsville, there isn't much of anything and south of there there is nothing. Therefore, this small "spike" in energy (probably caused by amateurs...the big boys reacted long ago), will be sold off and will start the next leg down in energy prices. That is my hurricane/energy forecast!

I have a bad feeling about this rally. I would LOVE to see a great Bank of America and Apple earnings report to get the market up > 1% today. If that occurs, I am taking at least 25% off the table into G! I don't like Wachovia at all on Tuesday.

 

[luv2read]

SB thanks for the new colors and format. Much easier on the eyes - I think the purple/red/tan combo was the problem. And I like the "we owe them/they owe us" break lines, much easier to understand. The descriptions are a riot, but very apt. I really appreciate you providing this valuable information every day. Well done!

 

[Guest2]

I firmly believe that we will get a SMALL spike in energy because of the possible Hurricane. However, this 'cane will likely be weak, and, will just graze the Southern edge of where the gas/oil platforms are. You really need to go from Corpus Cristi North to get a higher density. Down by Brownsville, there isn't much of anything and south of there there is nothing. Therefore, this small "spike" in energy (probably caused by amateurs...the big boys reacted long ago), will be sold off and will start the next leg down in energy prices. That is my hurricane/energy forecast!

I have a bad feeling about this rally. I would LOVE to see a great Bank of America and Apple earnings report to get the market up > 1% today. If that occurs, I am taking at least 25% off the table into G! I don't like Wachovia at all on Tuesday.

And yet, hurricane season ends when? (I know when). Just a point to
raise the eyebrows and draw focus to the potential. Thanks for the storm
update. I though Apple reported after the bell ? BofA was positve and you
might get your wish. But I see resistance and something just doesn't feel
right.

 

[Guest2]

SB thanks for the new colors and format. Much easier on the eyes - I think the purple/red/tan combo was the problem. And I like the "we owe them/they owe us" break lines, much easier to understand. The descriptions are a riot, but very apt. I really appreciate you providing this valuable information every day. Well done!

Thanks L2R ! You always have a nice word for me and keep
me motivated to spend a little time to help in any way I can.

 

[Guest2]

Crude prices bounce back a bit as Iran nuclear talks end without
agreement and traders fear tropical storm in Gulf of Mexico

 

[JTH]

One thing that has me puzzeled is the VIX?

If you recall, we talked about how the bottom assending trendline of the VIX was inversely related to rallys in the S&P 500 everytimne the VIX touched the trendline.

Now that the VIX has penetrated below the bottom assending trendline what now?

Things that make you hummm..... :suspicious:

 

[Guest2]

I originally found a rally after a 30VIX was interesting. Quite frankly, the
atricle I posted earlier was too long (at the time) to fully read the darn
thing. For now, I just add the tidbits from the VIX as just another signal.
Even if we don't see a 10% rally off the 30VIX, we did see quite a bit of
upward movement just after. But that might be the extent of it. We might
need to wait for the next 30VIX to occur before seeing a stronger rally.

 

[Corepuncher]

I originally found a rally after a 30VIX was interesting. Quite frankly, the
atricle I posted earlier was too long (at the time) to fully read the darn
thing. For now, I just add the tidbits from the VIX as just another signal.
Even if we don't see a 10% rally off the 30VIX, we did see quite a bit of
upward movement just after. But that might be the extent of it. We might
need to wait for the next 30VIX to occur before seeing a stronger rally.

We have fodder for a good capitulation. Another failed rally, especially after the VIX hit "30", while oil prices DECLINE, would be cause to give up on stocks for a while. It's like...all this supposed good happens and we STILL can't rally...

S fund is holding up nicely today. Sold 10% of my C and bought G. 45C 45S COB today.

 

[JTH]

It's like...all this supposed good happens and we STILL can't rally...

That's exactly what I'm thinking. This market is acting apprehensive like an abused red-headed step child. :cheesy:

Bring on the rally!!!

 

[Silverbird]

That's exactly what I'm thinking. This market is acting apprehensive like an abused red-headed step child. :cheesy:

Bring on the rally!!!

You need them to get back from lunch, these days market always drops around 12 Noon. Makes it hard to decide on IFTs when the action happens after 2:00pm.:suspicious: They need to stop serving FreddieMacs at the cafeteria.

 

[Guest2]

This market is acting apprehensive like an abused red-headed step child. Bring on the rally!!!

A RALLY, A RALLY, YOU CAN'T HANDLE A RALLY :nuts:

They need to stop serving FreddieMacs at the cafeteria.

DARE I SAY IT, I PREFER FANNY-MACS :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

s fund is holding up nicely today.

great results, likely the best of all stock
funds today. I got my fingers crossed 4 ya.

 

[luv2read]

I can remember 12% saying for most of last year that 2008 would be the "year of the S fund." At least I THINK I remember that....:blink:

 

[Guest2]

I can remember 12% saying for most of last year that 2008 would be the "year of the S fund." At least I THINK I remember that....:blink:

All things being equal,,,,,the (S) Fund is Four Full Percentage points ahead
of the (C) and the (I) Year-To-Date. I'd say that puts 12%'s comments
in 2007 as "Perfectly Accurate" to this point in 2008.

 

[Buster]

All things being equal,,,,,the (S) Fund is Four Full Percentage points ahead
of the (C) and the (I) Year-To-Date. I'd say that puts 12%'s comments
in 2007 as "Perfectly Accurate" to this point in 2008.

Great day to be in S..huge volume at the last of the day..woot!:nuts:

 

[Steadygain]

Great day to be in S..huge volume at the last of the day..woot!:nuts:

Thanks, and it's great to stop by and see the gang.

Also I appreciate the upbeat sentiment re: "S Fund" from the others.

I have learned to stop "holding my breath" and getting too excited (or disappointed) - as things change so fast. In the long run I have no doubt I'll make a killing - despite my current standing.

 

[Guest2]

Thanks, and it's great to stop by and see the gang.

Also I appreciate the upbeat sentiment re: "S Fund" from the others.

I have learned to stop "holding my breath" and getting too excited (or disappointed) - as things change so fast. In the long run I have no doubt I'll make a killing - despite my current standing.

Welcome Back My Friend. I read that your still a bit busy, so I opted to
give you some space. As one of my most inspired Board Buddies, Its great
to hear from you and thanks for stopping by. I'll be checking your thread,
as I always have.
:embarrest:

 

[Guest2]

The Overpayment increased back into the "Out of Control" area of the
key. This was a great day to be in the (I) Fund. The EFA closed up today
by +0.58%. What more can a TSP participant ask for, then to get a
+1.31% increase. It still appears that its better to be in the (I) Fund, the
lower you go in the key.

But now its in a scarey area. It can rise still more, but its goal is to go
lower. To me, that means underperforming the EFA during a positive day
or underperforming during a negative day. If I seem unsure, well, I am.
I'm still trying to grasp this new reality.

Congratulation to those in the (S) and (I) today. The (C) wanted nothing
to do with todays action and thats alittle disappointing. Hopefully, it will
all be made up tomarrow and the (C) will, once again, shine.


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents


THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !

 

[XL-entLady]

SB, just wanted to stop by to tell you hi, love your cool new avatar, and many thanks for the new colors and explanations for your I fund tracking! Very easy on the eyes and even easier to understand.

Lady