Squalebear's Account Talk

SB, just wanted to stop by to tell you hi, love your cool new avatar, and many thanks for the new colors and explanations for your I fund tracking! Very easy on the eyes and even easier to understand.....Lady

Thanks for the input, Lady. I stole the avitar from Minyanville simply
because I need a change from time to time. Glad you find the O/D
Tracker easier on the eyes and brain. Oh yes, welcome back. I've
been meaning to catch up with ya since I saw some of your posts.
I'm gonna call it a night for now, but I'm interested in posting one
more rant before I go. Talk to ya soon ! :cool:
 
Until tomarrow, I wanted to release my thoughts upon the unwilling masses. :blink:

I've been taking a look at the Automated Tracker Software just a little closer then usual. I took note of a few things. The membership utilizing the tracker has taken a loss, as of late. Its somewhere in the 160's. I'm sure this fluxuates from summer to winter, from Bear to Bull. I'm currently in the 30's and have not been doing too well since winning my March 2008 award for "Best of the Month". To go from +6% YTD to -0.60ish% YTD is frustrating when you look at it from a motivated point of view. Thats a hit which appears (intitially) hard as hell to overcome. Not to mention the $$$ that got flushed down the toilet due to bad decisions. Its easy to get mad at yourself, policies and anything else that comes to mind when seeing red.

More to the point, The tracker put a few things in perspective. I took note of the membership's position and found that some become very cautious when doing well YTD. It sometimes appears to be more then just Capital Preservation during a Bear Market. I know, I've done it too. On the otherside of the spectrum, I found that some are more likely to "go for it" to make up for extreme losses they've incurred thus far. Yes, the tracker has more value to it then just Face Value.

With that said, I decided to do some reevaluation of my goals, strategy and current position. While doing so, I found that many members have previously posted some of my new conclusions, but until I was exposed to the reality, it wasn't real for me. Well, you learn everyday, don't ya ?

Here are some of the things I've found out for myself;

Yesterdays loss means nothing today.
Bad decisions happen, but shouldn't dictate future decisions.
Good decisions happen, but shouldn't dictate future decisions.
Your best decision may be the one you don't make.
Emotion is draining and can be a very dangerous tool.
Homework at this age still sucks, but is vital to meet your goals.
You won't always be right and you won't always be wrong.
You must have fun doing what we do, without it, its too hard.


Maybe this little rant can put some thought behind action. For some of the newer members, maybe in some way, this can give perspective. Even if your in double digit losses so far this year. Its hard to say; "Today is the first day of the rest of your investment life". But isn't it ? Look forward and find the positives. Even if they're not easily seen. In the long run, you'll have a better shot at being more right then wrong. And thats what its all about.:)
 
The Overpayment increased back into the "Out of Control" area of the
key. This was a great day to be in the (I) Fund. The EFA closed up today
by +0.58%. What more can a TSP participant ask for, then to get a
+1.31% increase. It still appears that its better to be in the (I) Fund, the
lower you go in the key.

But now its in a scarey area. It can rise still more, but its goal is to go
lower. To me, that means underperforming the EFA during a positive day
or underperforming during a negative day. If I seem unsure, well, I am.
I'm still trying to grasp this new reality.

Congratulation to those in the (S) and (I) today. The (C) wanted nothing
to do with todays action and thats alittle disappointing. Hopefully, it will
all be made up tomarrow and the (C) will, once again, shine.


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents :eek:



THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !:eek:
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !
 
It would appear the Futures are rising just a bit off their overnight lows.
They are still down though. The Tropical Storm (Dolly) which threatens
the Texas lower edge was strengthening but appears to be way left of
Oil Refinaries. Oil Prices are slightly lower at this point. Good Luck To All.
:)
 
SB, just wanted to say thanks. I am one of the silent group. We who read your forum but don't comment because we don't feel we know enough to contribute. I am learning alot though this site. I got into the recent rally a little early so instead of a 5%ish gain I left as of yesterday 2%ish. Better than a kick in the teeth. 52G 48F thinking if the market tanks some as I expect this week F might make up some of the losses it made last week. Thanks again for a great informative thread.
 
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !:eek:
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !

You are one VERY COOL DUDE :cool:

I like this SB - you really have style.
 
SB, just wanted to say thanks. I am one of the silent group. We who read your forum but don't comment because we don't feel we know enough to contribute. I am learning alot though this site. I got into the recent rally a little early so instead of a 5%ish gain I left as of yesterday 2%ish. Better than a kick in the teeth. 52G 48F thinking if the market tanks some as I expect this week F might make up some of the losses it made last week. Thanks again for a great informative thread.

Justbizness45 - IMO the F Fund is not the place to be and right now the only reason why I am sitting is because of the 2 IFT's or I would be in the G Fund looking for an entry into the S Fund.

You are right about SB the charts are great and if I listened to him last week I would have been all in the I Fund but waited and moved to the F Fund and $12.01 was my entry point today/tomorrow it may dip to $11.93 but what do I know was looking good today then the Fed speaks and cost me a few hundred in a second. -

Best of Luck Braveheart
 
My hats off, too. From one who likes(ed) to elevator (leverage-hop) with I fund, very good - now, much clearer with "we owe" "they owe." The vantage point can be confusing without it.

If I had some IFTs, I would have been in S today, with, hopefully, some pop tomorrow with low crude tally, then back to I for the bump.

If someone has some trades - perhaps some words of thought.
 
SB, just wanted to say thanks. I am one of the silent group.

I'm overwhelmed by your kindness. Don't be part of the silent group.
Your questions are important and you'll understand quicker. Jump in
and have some fun. The only dumb question is the one you don't ask.


SB, did the I fund fairvalue people have a keg party last night?

0.28 tsp cents will buy quite a few kegs. I only wish I had developed
a taste for beer. yuk. Get me near the hard stuff and its party time
without preying to the porcelin gods.
:laugh:

You are one VERY COOL DUDE

Steady my friend, I'm even good looking too ! Glad ya like it !
I wanted to make it easier on the eyes and new members.
:embarrest:

You are right about SB the charts are great
and if I listened to him last week I would have been all in the I Fund

Never listen to me ! Just use me like a tool ! I'm heavy in gut and light
in experience. Braveheart, you make me sound better then
I am. You and your friends are the wealth of knowledge that I have
learned to depend on. Any new members out there would do best to
read your thread, as opposed to mine. Thanks for your kindness !
:embarrest:

My hats off, too. If I had some IFTs, I would have been in S today.

It can be frustrating sometimes, can't it my friend. Listen, we have
plenty of time in 2008. Your beating the hell out of the TSP Funds. It
will soon be August. We will be chomping at the bit to get some action.
But know this, on average, the three TSP stock funds are down three
quarters of a percent (-.72%) since July 1, 2008 through now. We will
kick some TSP booty together !
:blink:
 
Well it looks like we're in the Medium Overpayment area again. If anyone
is seeing what I'm seeing, maybe thats Barclays New Goal, as opposed to the
Low Area. I won't jump the gun with this assessment, however, the data
sure does look that way. Once again, I'm not sure if we'll fall back to the
Deficit side of the O/D Tracker, but its possible. Maybe I'll call Barclays
and ask "what are your intentions?". But I have neither the Motivation nor
Inclination to subject them to the Dark Side of the Force. After all, I'm a
Squalebear, not a GrizzlyBear. But they certainly deserve the latter.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08) -0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08) -0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08) -0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08) -0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents


......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents

(7/22/08) -0.7174% -0.1553 tsp cents :confused:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin) :confused:
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !
 
SB, really like the chart redo's, just wanted to tell you that. Seeing the "We owe them" makes me think for sure I'll stay in til I get a positive return-unless my trend-followers' indicators for IEE go south on me, which they haven't yet; they're still on a green light at the end of today.
 
Well it looks like we're in the Medium Overpayment area again.

Well O SqualeBear it looks like those who sold the I today took a hit, but you can't say you didn't warn them. :(

Thanks, and as previously mentioned, it seems I'm not the only one who loves your new updated presentation. Very sweet on the eyes and quick to decrypt... :D
 
Well it looks like we're in the Medium Overpayment area again. If anyone
is seeing what I'm seeing, maybe thats Barclays New Goal, as opposed to the Low Area. I won't jump the gun with this assessment, however, the data sure does look that way. Once again, I'm not sure if we'll fall back to the Deficit side of the O/D Tracker, but its possible. Maybe I'll call Barclays and ask "what are your intentions?". But I have neither the Motivation nor Inclination to subject them to the Dark Side of the Force. After all, I'm a Squalebear, not a GrizzlyBear. But they certainly deserve the latter.

SB, We have to be careful of the darkside. :notrust:

Keep up the good work. I have always respected you as one of the leaders of this MB.

May the force be with you.:cool::cool:
 
SB, really like the chart redo's, just wanted to tell you that. Seeing the "We owe them" makes me think for sure I'll stay in til I get a positive return-unless my trend-followers' indicators for IEE go south on me, which they haven't yet; they're still on a green light at the end of today.

Alevin,

When in the "We Owe Them" (Overpayment Area)- The higher we go, the
greater the gains. But remember, what we owe, must be paid back. Its
the payback that leads to greater loses and smaller gains. In summation,
the ride up is the best we can hope for on this this of the O/D Tracker.

When in the "They Owe Us" (Deficit Area), The lower we go, the greater
the loses. But remember, what they owe, must be paid back. Its the pay
back that leads to higher gains and smaller loses. In summation, the ride
up is the best we can hope for, on this this of the O/D Tracker.

So it would appear that the direction which helps us most is "UP".
But that is also what dictates this O/D Tracker as only a small tool.
Because the Overpayments and Deficits are "never" one directional.

THANKS FOR YOUR VOTE OF CONFIDENCE AND SORRY IF I RAMBLED
ABOUT SOMETHING YOU ALREADY KNEW. MAYBE A NEW MEMBER WILL
FIND THE INFORMATION OF VALUE :)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .5000 thru- .4000 Holy Cow !
- .4000 thru -.3000 Out Of Control !
- .3000 thru -.2000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
+.3000 thru+.4000 Never Seen Before !
----------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Well O SqualeBear it looks like those who sold the I today took a hit, but you can't say you didn't warn them. Thanks, and as previously mentioned, it seems I'm not the only one who loves your new updated presentation. Very sweet on the eyes and quick to Decrypt

Did I warn them ? Naaaaah ! I was just Blogging !

SB, We have to be careful of the darkside.
Keep up the good work. I have always respected you as one of the leaders of this MB. May the force be with you.

Way too much credit. I look to you for guidence and good information !
I am your Padawan and seek wizdom against the evil sith Lord Ben "Obewan" Bernanke !

The I Fund...WHY BOTHER? It was great during the bull market but now it's Just a source of frusteration.

It still can be great, but the financial world is turned upside down right
now and I feel like I'm wearing a skirt with no panties. I know we haven't
seen the (I) Fund in action during a Bear Market in quite a while. But
Barclays contributed to the confussion by turning the (I) Fund into
Overpayment Status. Its alot to absorb and adjust to. Thats why I've
stayed out of the (I) Fund, except for small percentages. The (C) and
(S) appear to be easier to understand right now.
 
My final thought for the night. Charts are looking at a Head and
Shoulders pattern developing. The speculation is for a drop around
the 1277 to retest the lows we saw earlier in the week. Its the end
of July and the new month is just in front of us. Is it time to lock in
some gains? Will the (AGG) rebound from the low 99's and give
reason for a follow up (F) allocation? Does the Market go Straight
UP in a Bear Market?

Well the TSP Stock Funds have "5" positive moves in a row, when
you average them together. (C)(S)(I). Not to be mistaken for the
TV Show. But my gut says the top was seen for now and the three
may drop like TV show ratings during rerun season. Good Night !
 
My final thought for the night. Charts are looking at a Head and Shoulders pattern developing. The speculation is for a drop around the 1277 to retest the lows we saw earlier in the week. Its the end of July and the new month is just in front of us. Is it time to lock in some gains? Will the (AGG) rebound from the low 99's and give reason for a follow up (F) allocation? Does the Market go Straight UP in a Bear Market?

That all sounds like a good analysis.

It's hard for me to think of 1277 as a retest. If Oil remains where it is then things should remain upbeat. Most of the "so called" experts were amazed the VERY WORST was averted and still project the next 6 months to be rough (but these are not MB members). Mainly due to their sentiment it appears we did avoid the expected catastropy. Many - especially me - thought the tower was slowly leaning over the first few months of the year and expected a huge plunge down when reports of financial weakness became apparent; so in retrospect it appears the FED actually did a lot more to stablize the economy than the general public realizes.

Anyway - enough of all my garbage. If I were a short term trader I would be inclinded to lock in on the gains. 4% or better in a week is excellent and not likely to repeat itself too frequently.
 
Getting stronger and it's still early yet. 1300 SPX by close today. Dow could get a 400 point banger - that'd be just about right for comeuppance for the dark siders.
 
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