Squalebear's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
Steadygain said:
If I were a short term trader I would be inclinded to lock in on the gains. 4% or better in a week is excellent and not likely to repeat itself too frequently.
Click to expand...

Steady, Do you believe this is a Bear Market ? If so, why aren't you a
short term trader when gains reach 4% ? If 1277-1290 isn't the top for
the SPX, what do you believe the top is ? I don't have a good handle on
all of the different calls that are being said right now.
Somewhat confusing !
:confused:
 
Birchtree said:
Getting stronger and it's still early yet. 1300 SPX by close today. Dow could get a 400 point banger - that'd be just about right for comeuppance for the dark siders.
Click to expand...

The Dow is up 16 points, the (C) is outperforming the (S) by .50%,
the (S) is fighting to get out of negative territory, the (F) is flat as a
pancake and the (I) looks to surprise everyone, yet again, by keeping
even with the (C). This is current as of 2:20pm EST

The Dow could get 400 points at the end of todays rainbow. But todays
market is moving because Oil had supplies in line with expectations, gas
inventories showed a build-up and profits rose at AT&T and Pfizer.

Maybe its all about the oil & earnings for a while. But how long before
one sneezes ? Or until another Bank folds or says something stupid ?
There's a Bear hiding under that Black Vadar outfit. And as you know,
the power of the Darkside is Strong in that one.

Just my thoughts, from someone who couldn't answer these questions
for himself. Maybe the bottom has already been formed. I'd love your
thoughts concerning your belief in where the Markets will be come
December.
 
I'm on record predicting the Dow will be at 17,900 and the SPX will be at 1700 - does that make you nervous. The herd consensus is that we are in a bear market - I believe otherwise. Once the money starts rotating back to this country watch out. We are the value provider. Can't you smell the superlative bull manure that is spiced with rocket fuel.
 
I think we'll see a run through the end of July then a pullback. December is a tossup. If it's Democrats, the market will take off. If it's GOP, look for a drop. More war isn't going to help anything, and that's what you get with GOP. We're spending our national treasure overseas instead of at home, the sheep are finally waking up to it, and the majority is sick of it. "Conservatives" don't believe in big government and big spending? Give me a break. Give me anything but 4-8 more years of the same.
 
Birchtree said:
I'm on record predicting the Dow will be at 17,900 and the SPX will be at 1700 - does that make you nervous. The herd consensus is that we are in a bear market - I believe otherwise. Once the money starts rotating back to this country watch out. We are the value provider. Can't you smell the superlative bull manure that is spiced with rocket fuel.
Click to expand...

Thanks Birch, 17900 and 1700 sounds great ! By the way, everything
makes me nervous. Hell, I'm down right paranoid from time to time. But
I'm taking my meds and hope you'll go easy on me. It almost sounds like
you think I'm a perma-bear. Anyway, I can smell it from here !
 
squalebear said:
Thanks Birch, 17900 and 1700 sounds great ! By the way, everything
makes me nervous. Hell, I'm down right paranoid from time to time. But
I'm taking my meds and hope you'll go easy on me. It almost sounds like
you think I'm a perma-bear. Anyway, I can smell it from here !
Click to expand...

We're not out of the woods yet, and word has it that bears DO poop in the woods....that might be the smell you're getting. Caution is still the word of the day.;)

Don't forget - bears eat bulls, not the reverse.
 
luv2read said:
I think we'll see a run through the end of July then a pullback. December is a tossup. If it's Democrats, the market will take off. If it's GOP, look for a drop. More war isn't going to help anything, and that's what you get with GOP. We're spending our national treasure overseas instead of at home, the sheep are finally waking up to it, and the majority is sick of it. "Conservatives" don't believe in big government and big spending? Give me a break. Give me anything but 4-8 more years of the same.
Click to expand...

L2R, is the National Election the only thing the Market doesn't absorb six
to nine months in advance ? or do you think the speculators have already
thrown that in the mix ? Just curious. I'll be back a little later, duty calls !
 
squalebear said:
Steady, Do you believe this is a Bear Market ? If so, why aren't you a short term trader when gains reach 4% ? If 1277-1290 isn't the top for the SPX, what do you believe the top is ? I don't have a good handle on all of the different calls that are being said right now.
Somewhat confusing !
:confused:
Click to expand...

Little Brother - I'm honored you're asking me and I really mean that.

First I need to let you know I'm just a simple ordinary guy who really doesn't know the whole story, so most of what I believe is based on the limited information I've collectively acquired. Second - I chose the name Steadygain because over the years I've pretty much been in Par with Ebb and Uptrend - so maybe in reality I sense things pretty well. Since 8/07 and especially 10/07 a lot of political toying has thrown me "out of sink".

1. Do I believe this is a Bear Market - in the MB sense of what is perceived a "Bear Market" - YES

But in the way I would typically describe a BEAR MARKET - No.
What we have encountered (and currently encounter) is nothing like the last "real Bear Market" - so I would say this is a CORRECTION

2. Why am I not a short term trader at 4%?

Over the years I have been and usually am very satified with that kind of gain in ONE WEEK during volatile periods and will lock in those gains by going 100% G Fund.

If on the otherhand we were actually in a BEAR MARKET - at least as I see one - I would most certainly be 100% G Fund until the bottom was achieved.

Here I need to stress - if we were in an actual BULL MARKET then I would remain 100% invested regardless of weekly gains.

AT THIS MOMENT - I went S Fund 100% on 6/5 - bought very high and it crashed and kept crashing. So this is a personal battle between me and the Markets. Had the SPX sank substantially lower I would have rolled several accounts to the TSP and bought up a ton of S Funds shares (then gone to FL to toast in the Bull with Birch). So for me to sell - means selling at a loss - I WILL NOT LOSE.

3. Is 1277 - 1290 the top for SPX
Looking for lows/tops - especially short term lows/tops is a very popular trend (and that's understandable - since we are grounded in unlimited trades). Had I been 100% G Fund and in Positive Territory and went C, S, or I last week - would probably have "locked in today".

I don't usually think in terms of lows/tops - I move on Market Moods and Trends - and lately that Mood has been outstanding. With the substantial gains we've had lately - TODAY IS EQUALLY OUTSTANDING.

But to give a more specific answer :
I mainly project where the EXTREME BOTTOM would fall and if we got near 10,000 I would immediately roll accounts to TSP. So far this still has the appearance of a correction (which may drag on another 3 months) but I don't see that as any big deal.

NOW for The TOP - Brace yourself for this one my friend (you may want a shot of whiskey - but only one). S Fund was $21.40 in 10/07 and I believe as Election Time arrives the S Fund will go beyond $22.00 by the end of the year. So my Top is very high but I don't have a specific projection - I simply go with the flow.

In the end I'll say "FY you Bastards" and probably accompany that with giving the finger to my computer as I sell at over $22.00. But that won't happen anytime soon. Now don't you follow my example here - because Mom and Dad will have a fit and you're the main reason Birch and I don't get in big time trouble.

Hope that helps - PEACE
 
luv2read said:
We're not out of the woods yet, and word has it that bears DO poop in the woods....that might be the smell you're getting.
Click to expand...
And here is proof..


bear.jpg
 
I'm so happy for those members (and jealous) that the TSP saw its
sixth straight (combined average) day. The (I) Fund outperformed
the EFA and the (C) came in second place. The (S) never got out
of bed and the (F) lost a penny while the AGG showed positive. If
you haven't noticed, the O/D Tracker & Key have been adjusted.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(6/30/08)-0.110% -0.4354 tsp cents
(7/01/08)-0.360% -0.3083 tsp cents
(7/02/08)+0.150% -0.3404 tsp cents
(7/03/08)-0.040% -0.3332 tsp cents
(7/04/08) FEDERAL HOLIDAY (ENJOY)

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/07/08) +0.802% -0.5058 tsp cents
(7/08/08)-1.1409% -0.2585 tsp cents
(7/09/08) +0.794% -0.4264 tsp cents
(7/10/08)-0.786% -0.2592 tsp cents
(7/11/08) +0.457% -0.3527 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/14/08) +0.397% -0.4372 tsp cents
(7/15/08) - 0.508% -0.3229 tsp cents
(7/16/08) -0.3206%-0.2605 tsp cents
(7/17/08) -0.2940%-0.2013 tsp cents
(7/18/08) -0.2422%-0.1504 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(7/21/08) +0.7334%-0.3109 tsp cents
(7/22/08) -0.7174%-0.1553 tsp cents
(7/23/08) +0.5982%-0.2868 tsp cents :confused:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .4000 thru -.3000 High Overpayment (Debt Payment Imminent)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Meduim Overpayment, (Flip A Coin) :confused:
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.0000 Not Seen For A Long Time (TBA)
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (rarely goes higher)
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming !
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Here's a final thought;

When one enters a domain filled with nothing more then caustic and
often sarcastic remarks, it takes nothing away from ones reputation
of investment expertise. :rolleyes:

However,

It does take away the respect and admiration that some might have
for such a person. We can help one another, agree to disagree, have
a spirited conversations along the way or even shun those who break
out the sandpaper within conversation. Anything less is a waste of time
and energy. I don't have much time left and energy costs to darn much.
So when you travel through the many different worlds within this glorious
website, simply remember to respect one another. Or chance the loss of
respect by others. Of coarse, maybe that doesn't matter anyway. :suspicious:

Food For Thought ! ;)
 
squalebear said:
when you travel through the many different worlds within this glorious website, simply remember to respect one another. Or chance the loss of respect by others.
Click to expand...

Squale, my wise and thoughtful brother, you have once again proven why I hold you in such high esteem. Namaste!

Lady
 
squalebear said:
Here's a final thought;

When one enters a domain filled with nothing more then caustic and
often sarcastic remarks, it takes nothing away from ones reputation
of investment expertise. :rolleyes:

However,

It does take away the respect and admiration that some might have
for such a person. We can help one another, agree to disagree, have
a spirited conversations along the way or even shun those who break
out the sandpaper within conversation. Anything less is a waste of time
and energy. I don't have much time left and energy costs to darn much.
So when you travel through the many different worlds within this glorious
website, simply remember to respect one another. Or chance the loss of
respect by others. Of coarse, maybe that doesn't matter anyway. :suspicious:

Food For Thought ! ;)
Click to expand...
Very true and profound...Now what brought this on?:confused:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - FOMC Day
Replies
0
Views
2K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls are back
Replies
0
Views
151
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks rally but the Dow is in an 8-day losing streak?
Replies
1
Views
184
WorkFE
WorkFE
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big was brewing, all right
Replies
1
Views
252
robo
robo
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks fall as bond yields continue to move higher
Replies
0
Views
106
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top