Squalebear's Account Talk

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Well, this is good news for (I) Funders. The overpayment was increased
by another 0.04 tsp cents. Congratulations, the (I) had a gain. But how
long can the Fund Managers wait to payback their debt and lower the
overpayment. The question I ask is, Can the (I) fund close YTD with a
2.07% difference, in comparison to the MSCI EAFE Index.? I'll be looking
into that question by going back into the past to see if it's ever happend
before. Best of Luck Next Week. Tuesday opens July for anyone stuck
in the (G) Fund. I'll be hanging around, on & off, during the weekend.

IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEVER SEEN BEFORE OVERPAYMENT, THE KEY WAS
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A REVERSAL AND WILL NEED TO BE ALTERED FROM
TIME TO TIME TO REFLECT A POSSIBLE NEW REALITY.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents
(6/19/08) - .947% +0.27 tsp cents
(6/20/08) + .587% +0.13 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/23/08) - .166% +0.17 tsp cents
(6/24/08) + .543% +0.05 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.38 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.42 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.46 tsp cents :mad:
----------------------------------
THE KEY:
???? thru- .28 Holy Cow ! :mad:
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (I) Fund (Giveback Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment to the I-Fund (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent
 
One last thought that has nothing to do with the (I) Fund. Lets talk USA.
The (C) and the (S) appear to be waaaaaaaaay oversold. The P&F Chart
for the S&P500 has one heck of a downward line thats formed. A nice
swing to the upside appears to be right around the corner. In this Bear
Market, the joy could be short lived. But a few respected members are
feeling the same way and believe a bounce back up is due. If I was to
venture into the TSP Stock Funds, I think the (C) would be my Fund of
choice at this moment. But its the (G) I'm in, until Tuesday. Maybe longer.
;)
 
squalebear said:
One last thought that has nothing to do with the (I) Fund. Lets talk USA.
The (C) and the (S) appear to be waaaaaaaaay oversold. The P&F Chart
for the S&P500 has one heck of a downward line thats formed. A nice
swing to the upside appears to be right around the corner. In this Bear
Market, the joy could be short lived. But a few respected members are
feeling the same way and believe a bounce back up is due. If I was to
venture into the TSP Stock Funds, I think the (C) would be my Fund of
choice at this moment. But its the (G) I'm in, until Tuesday. Maybe longer.
;)
Click to expand...



My Finger is on the Buy Trigger.... :)
 
AND, It's itchy ! Thanks for stopping by Poolman !
I totaly enjoy your contributions and invite you to
stop by anytime your heart desires !
:)
 
Is there blood in the streets yet ?
Can we see another 3% drop before a prime entry point ?
How much upside are we looking at, right this minute ?
Will Paulson or Anybody do something substantial for the Dollar ?
Is Oil going to burst if the Dollar takes center stage ?
What Economic News can be a catylist to turn this Bear Over ?
 
Your Morning Market Weather Report
Posted By:Allen Wastler


The central element is the futures and fair value box. Those of you who are "Squawk Box" junkies probably know all about these. But if you don't ...
Most things that are traded in financial markets have a "futures" contract ... essentially a bet on where the price of that commodity or stock will be at a certain point in the future. If the price of such contracts are moving up, then traders believe the value of the underlying item is going to go up in the future. And the if the contract price is going down, well then, the underlying item is going to get cheaper (or so the market thinks).

Now even indexes like the S&P, the Nasdaq and Dow have these kind of futures contracts tied to them. Traders use these contracts to protect themselves from major market shifts. But the movements of these contracts can offer anybody a kind of weather vane for which way the market is likely to move. If S&P futures contracts are moving higher, for example, then the market generally thinks the S&P index is going to move higher -- the higher the number, the stronger the move. And vice versa.

Fair value is an added twist. The basket of stocks that underlies an index has a cost and a benefit associated with it. The cost boils down to the fees to buy and hold the stocks (versus just leaving your stock buying money in the bank). The benefit would be all the dividends you could receive from that collection of stocks. The effect of these costs and benefits generally isn't immediately reflected in a stock index. These calculations come after the fact. So the end-level of an index is often different from where it would have ended had the interest and dividend effects been added in -- the "fair value" of the index. (When the index level and its fair value are widely different, arbitrageurs tend to pile in looking to profit from the difference).
So futures give you an idea which way the market is headed. Fair value tells you where the start line really is. Our premarkets page gives you that information and does some of the math for you.

But that's not the only thing you need to gauge the market in the morning. Stock action in Asia rolls on to Europe which in turn rolls on to the Americas and then back across the Pacific again. Our premarket page lets you peek at what's going on overseas and some of the U.S. stocks seeing some significant gains or losses. (We use the Xetra exchange for that for technical and cost reasons).

Overnight commodity and currency movements are also important for gauging the market day ... a rush to gold may mean renewed inflation worries will hit stocks, for example. A drop in the value of the dollar may mean exporters could get a lift. You'll find all this information laid out with the futures ... eliminating the need to hunt and peck through the site (feel free to do that, though, if you prefer). We've also included Treasury quotes in case readers need a reminder about where the debt market stands.

Lastly, but certainly not minimally, we've included volatility indicators. These numbers (the VIX and VXN) are based on options trades. The higher the numbers, the more the market is worrying about sudden market swings.
 
squalebear said:
Is there blood in the streets yet ?
Can we see another 3% drop before a prime entry point ?
How much upside are we looking at, right this minute ?
Will Paulson or Anybody do something substantial for the Dollar ?
Is Oil going to burst if the Dollar takes center stage ?
What Economic News can be a catylist to turn this Bear Over ?
Click to expand...

Patience - This is harder for us "the 3000" than the limited ITFs and everything else.

For the ones in safety this is probably even harder than for those stuck in high risk.

I would say it's very doubtful that any substantial changes are going to happen soon. It's easy to make frequent huge cuts - but making frequent huge increases would not be a smart move. We are simply going to have to let history run its course and hope for the best. We're all in the "adjustment period" - the limbo - and that's difficult without a lot of patience.

This is where the King himself would say: "Be right - sit tight"
 
The overpayment is holding strongly in the "Holy Cow" range.
In January, we carried between +.36 and +.40 for about six days.
In one day the deficit was payed back, a whopping 0.26 tsp cents.
This was a good thing because it was a deficit, not a Overpayment.

Is this De Ja Vue but on the other side of the spectrum. I'm leaning
towards that belief. If this proves to be correct, I wouldn't want to
be in the (I) Fund when the Fund Managers decide to pay off this
debt. So for right now, I think the (I) Fund is way too risky for me to
even consider, should I decide to jump back into stocks. The (C)
looks most attractive. More so then the laggering (S) Fund. The (F)
Fund has been doing ok the last couple of days. But the (F) Fund is
a strange bird and for right now, it's not for me.

HAPPY JULY EVERYONE !

IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEVER SEEN BEFORE OVERPAYMENT, THE KEY WAS
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A REVERSAL AND WILL NEED TO BE ALTERED FROM
TIME TO TIME TO REFLECT A POSSIBLE NEW REALITY.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/23/08)- 0.166% +0.17 tsp cents
(6/24/08)+0.543% +0.05 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.38 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.42 tsp cents
(6/27/08)+0.147% -0.44 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/30/08) -0.100% -0.46 tsp cents :mad:

THE KEY:
- .46 thru- .28 Holy Cow ! :mad:
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (I) Fund (Giveback Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment to the I-Fund (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent
 
i.e.,

simons_holy_cow.jpg
 
SB,

I posted this in my account. Thanks for letting me use yours.

Below is a link to govexec.com and an interesting article about our TSP. There are some people involved that represent us and positions and names are mentioned. We need to write these folks to try and improve our availibility to manage our accounts. With the market the way it is it would be nice if we could see 4 IFT's per month or at the very least move our trade time from noon eastern to 4 or 6pm eastern. I know that I am fairly new to the MB and others before me have tried to convince our politicians to help us but this may be an opportunity we shouldn't pass up. Let's see what we can accomplish.


http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=40347&dcn=todaysnews
 
Buster,
My first thought was an "armor division" I was attached to a while.

The tanks had what are called "range finders" and it's easy to picture this resulting. In fact I heard them going off in my mind as soon as I saw the holes.

Thanks for the memories...
 
Hi Steady,,,,Hi Nasa,,,,

I'm going to take a moment to read the article now. ;)

Hey Steady, I would have given you the nickname "Tank"
after reading your last entry. However, the Stock Market
apeears to have taken it first. If you look close enough at
picture, you'll see the Cow was "utterly" destroyed too ! ;)
 
For those who intersted in the Last Month Best Fund results for June,
it would appear that the call for July is the (G) Fund. :blink:

G =+ 0.32% :blink:
F = -0.08%
C = -8.41%
S = -7.63%
(I)= -8.15%
 
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