Squalebear's Account Talk

[luv2read]

I don't know if this is a EFA flaw (-0.81%) or a TSP flaw (+1.13%). If its
the EFA, it would be safe to stay in the (I) Fund. If its the TSP, then the
ultimate payback could come in one day,,,,or,,,,in several days. Anyones
guess is as good as mine, as I've never seen such the leap to the Red
Side in one day. Maybe they've done a reversal into the overpayment side
and the (I) Funds will strive for single digits but in the red area.

Well, surely you read my post yesterday about Barclays investment bank business losing money...that's the branch that manages our TSP funds. So they have to make it up somehow SB. We should be used to it by now...

 

[Guest2]

Oh Squalebear my resolve is starting to weaken

Setting Goals is the key. Know how much you can tolerate in a loss,
as well as, how much you can tolerate in a gain. When your in, you
must know when to bail based on your "stop loss" goal. In order not
to override a rally, you must know when to bail to "lock in" the profit.
That doesn't always mean jumping to the (G). Sometimes your second
move might go into a lagging (I) Fund to catch the response. But always
have a goal. Even if it means to bail to the (G), early in the month, as a
final move. (like I just went through). Yes, it was frustrating then, but I
saved myself from losing an average of -3.26% since that time.

 

[Guest2]

We should be used to it by now...

I did read your thread L2R. Your right, nothing new here.
It's the largest swing I've ever recorded. At 7:30pm, it'll
be interesting to see how it today plays out today.

Backstabbing Genderless Idiots :nuts:

 

[Fivetears]

The last time I attempted to catch a bond ralley, I got pummeled into ground about 3% deep. G is good; much safer.

Damn It ! I'm missing a Bond Fund Rally !

 

[Guest2]

Two days of Overpayment Territory and I can't help but wonder if there
has been a reversal. What I mean by that is, the differences between the
EFA and the (I) Fund would normally stay on the "Deficit" side of the track.
With such a large swing to the Overpayment side and now some additional
OP added today (0.04 tsp cents), I believe it will take some time for the
(I) Fund to underperform the EFA to give it back,,,or,,, watch out my
friendly (I) Funders ! The alternative could get ugly !

IN RESPONSE TO THIS NEVER SEEN BEFORE OVERPAYMENT, THE KEY WAS
ADJUSTED TO REFLECT A REVERSAL AND WILL NEED TO BE ALTERED FROM
TIME TO TIME TO REFLECT A POSSIBLE NEW REALITY.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents
(6/19/08) - .947% +0.27 tsp cents
(6/20/08) + .587% +0.13 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/23/08) - .166% +0.17 tsp cents
(6/24/08) + .543% +0.05 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.38 tsp cents
(6/26/08)+0.214% -0.42 tsp cents
(6/27/08)

THE KEY:
???? thru- .28 Holy Cow !
- .27 thru -.16 High Overpayment, (I) Fund (Giveback Imminent)
- .15 thru -.10 Meduim Overpayment to the I-Fund (Flip A Coin)
- .09 thru -.00 Low Overpayment (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (Goal is Met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent

 

[nasa1974]

Yesterday should be called bloody Thursday. WOW!!! Sure am glad I have been in the G. Nsurf9 lost #1 status yesterday. What a fall. These 2 IFT restrictions have really cost people some serious money. Will the FRTIB wake up and correct their mistake. Yeah, Right!!!!!!!

 

[luv2read]

These 2 IFT restrictions have really cost people some serious money. Will the FRTIB wake up and correct their mistake. Yeah, Right!!!!!!!

FRTIB and Congress aren't worried about US. They're worried about how to keep the SS fund solvent. How to do that? Screw boomers and keep them working as long as possible. How to do that? Mess with their retirement system.

 

[Guest2]

Yesterday should be called bloody Thursday. WOW!!! Sure am glad I have been in the G. Nsurf9 lost #1 status yesterday. What a fall. These 2 IFT restrictions have really cost people some serious money. Will the FRTIB wake up and correct their mistake. Yeah, Right!!!!!!!

Its sad but true, There's nothing that will be done to EVER get back
what we lost concerning IFT's. The limits will soon become the norm
for all the new comers. Alls we can do is develope new strategies and
lower our profit expectations. Anything else (IMO) is a waste of energy.
:notrust:

FRTIB and Congress aren't worried about US. They're worried about how to keep the SS fund solvent. How to do that? Screw boomers and keep them working as long as possible. How to do that? Mess with their retirement system.

And yet, I believe they'll find new and inovative ways change the TSP
and make it worse. Oh yes, don't forget the face lifts that the website
was soooooo badly in need of. More to come too ! Pooooooooooh !
:notrust:

 

[luv2read]

And yet, I believe they'll find new and inovative ways change the TSP
and make it worse. Oh yes, don't forget the face lifts that the website
was soooooo badly in need of. More to come too ! Pooooooooooh !
:notrust:

Your TSP dollars at work. Oh, my bad. BARCLAY'S POOL of dollars at work.

 

[Frixxxx]

I've done some math on my account. Since November 07, I have lost everything the gov't matched to my TSP. Wait a minute, I should be quiet. Someone might say that it's a government economic stimulus package and take credit for it!!!!

 

[JTH]

Squalebear thank you for your continuous overpayment analysis, it has certainly been helpful.
I was wondering if you've seen a trend on when they pay it back to I? For an example, if they
tend to pay it back on up or down days or on days related to the dollar's strength.

Changing the subject, I sure would like to see the statistics on how the IFT limits are hindering
our profits? This weekend I'm going to re-evaluate some of my TSP goals and strategies. I think
I can do a better factoring in the IFT limits in a bear market.

Take care everyone and enjoy your weekend

 

[GUCHI]

anytime the govt wants to offer you something, look out !!!!!! they wanted folks to jump from CSRS to FERS to benefit who ??? yeah right !!!!! and now they put in the 2 tranfers per month to help us manage our retirement accounts better, yeah right again !!!

 

[luv2read]

FERS was NOT created to help federal employees, it was created because a study showed that boomers were going to bankrupt SS and they needed a way to get more money into SS before the first boomers reached retirement age without raising taxes again. Raising the SS MRA and putting millions of new federal hires into a new retirement system were easy ways to do it and look good to the taxpayers at the same time because there was a lot of anti-fed sentiment about the CSRS retirement system and feds not having to pay SS.

If they could have eliminated CSRS and converted all CSRS'ers to FERS, they would have done it. Thank god for the regulations that prevented it.

 

[GUCHI]

luv 2 r
amen !!! i feel for the fers folks since they have to make their retirement !!!

 

[nasa1974]

FRTIB and Congress aren't worried about US. They're worried about how to keep the SS fund solvent. How to do that? Screw boomers and keep them working as long as possible. How to do that? Mess with their retirement system.

I think we can make a difference. There are about 3.5 million members in TSP, that is also votes. Add spouses, round up to 6.5 or 7 million voters. Most of us are boomers with voting aged children. The numbers start to double, triple or more. Involve family and friends and we have a voice. Talk to our union leaders. We do not have to go for the moon just something that works fairly. Two IFT's are not fair. Intimidating members is not fair let alone ethical. Complain to the watchdog agencies, the IG or the justice department. Rules have been broken. Talk to the media. We just have to make sure that the facts are correct. Biggest problem is getting everyone to unite and fight the fight. Unfortunatly I am a rable rouser not a uniter. Thats my take on the situation.

May the force be with you.

 

[luv2read]

We tried. See TSPSHAREHOLDER.ORG. They didn't listen. Wait until the "passives" (the ones FRTIB were so supposedly so concerned about) go to their personnel specialists for their retirement estimates and get the nasty surprise....THEN they'll wake up and want to do something, but it will be too late, they'll have to work at least an extra 5 years. The L Funds, auto enrollment and auto-L Fund are the next steps to keep the next generation of feds complacent and unaware.

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear thank you for your continuous overpayment analysis, it has certainly been helpful.
I was wondering if you've seen a trend on when they pay it back to I? For an example, if they
tend to pay it back on up or down days or on days related to the dollar's strength.

Changing the subject, I sure would like to see the statistics on how the IFT limits are hindering
our profits? This weekend I'm going to re-evaluate some of my TSP goals and strategies. I think
I can do a better factoring in the IFT limits in a bear market.

Take care everyone and enjoy your weekend

I haven't done any comparisons concerning the strength of the dollar and
its affect on the Deficit/Overpayment Tracking information that I provide.

In a Bear Market, you will see up days and mini rallies as the market does
not go straight down, nor straight up. The unlimited IFT scenario gave us
participants the ability to take advantage of those times, without worrying
about being locked into the (G) Fund. We had the ability to re-enter into
stocks after jumping into the (G) for safety. Unless your willing to stay in
stocks until you hit your goal, the alternative is to hit & run. Otherwise
you may have a nice move up one week, then get slammed with a week
that drops twice as much as you gained. The trend is down. So your gain
opportunities are decreased in comparison to a Bull Market. If your young
enough to overcome a bad year, then the IFT limits aren't such a big deal
over the long haul. But for those with limited time before Withdraws come
into play, a Bear Market hit may never be recovered. Some of the TSPtalk
members have made a commitment to jump into the (S) Fund, once it got
hammered, some stayed in hopes for a rebound. When the market went
down even more the next day, they had to weigh the alternatives. One
alternative was to seek safety in the (G) only to realize they would be
stuck there for 3 more weeks. Alot can happen in that time span. Some
liked to DCA as the price dropped, but can't put money into stocks from
the (G) as they use to. Bottom Line, the limits will result in smaller gains
over longer periods of time during a Bear Market. All the rest is Bull !

 

[Gumby]

Bottom Line, the limits will result in smaller gains over longer periods of time during a Bear Market. All the rest is Bull !

squalebear

You are 100% correct in your assessment.

 

[Guest2]

My friends, the efforts and organization behind those efforts were done
quite well. It was enough to get the FETIB to take notice, monitor certain
websites (ours) and address issues within the Federal Registry response.
Letters from the Unions, Fax Campaigns and Congressional involvement
never swayed them from their goals. They are not Federal Employees,
nor are they elected by the TSP Participants. Otherwise, they would be
required to answer to those who matter the most, US ! I don't pretend
to know the Law or if everything that could have been done, got done.
But the effort was amazing and yet failed. My resistance was futile. In
fact, it cost me over $9000 dollars. Its time for me to move on and find
a way to fight back through profits. Should anyone find the time, money
and motivation to pursue a legally binding, evidentuary inquiry over any
illegal acts against the FETIB or Barclays, I will testify to my personal
experiences concerning the above matter. Until such a time comes, I'm
focused on the reality put before me and seek PROFIT to ease my pain.

 

[Guest2]

The Dow takes another triple digit hit and the Futures are down -118.49
The Euro is up against the dollar +0.22%. Oil gained +0.62% and Gold is
up +1.52%.The $VIX stands at 23.44 and we can only hope for it to drop
below 20. The only bright side was the Dow Transportation Index.

I'm guessing in a few moments the (I) will come in poorly. But you never
know. It could show a gain and keep the overpayment the same. Or, it
will do poorly in comparison to the EFA.