Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

GarySpicuzza Banned :nuts:

Yet another reason why this website is simply "The Best"
TSPTalk has the patience of a Saint and gives all members
the equal opportunity to share and express their thoughts.
Warnings of abuse are progressive and fair. But when one
attempts to manipulate, twist or distort information for
personal gain, you get the axe. Deservedly so. :laugh:

 

[Guest2]

Ok now, I don't want you thinking that I'm wish anyone harm or to lose
money, with the following statement. "I want the market to take a crap
for the next 5 days. I'm tired of being in the (G) and I don't want a
marginal up week or I'll be forced to sit out longer, waiting for a better
entry point. I feel we're close, but not quite there. :suspicious:

Ok, I got that off my chest. If I felt there was any chance of a Short
Term Bull Run, I might change my tune. However, my gut tells me that
Saudi's Increase in Production, The Markets refusal to respond in the
way of lower Oil Prices, will only keep the Smart Money on the sidelines
until a new bottom can be established. The Fed is toothless at this point
but could pull a rabbit out of its Brain Storage Container :nuts: when you
least expect it. I'm still leaning on the Bear Side of this market, but I'm
hoping for something better. Hope does not make you money, it makes
you feel better after losing it.

 

[JTH]

Cut me some slack there Bear, I think I've taken a big enough hit since you left for G....

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

I would hope for a bull market but so much is pointing bear. The big money is still out, financials are on the brink, the dollar cannot make up it's mind and the biggie are the oil speculaters. Someone needs to close that door and fast. Get out of this day trading rut we are in and try and get the swing traders running the market again. Sure would be nice to have at least four IFT's a month or at least move the deadline to 6:00pm eastern time instead of noon.

Anyway!!!

What we do not need right now is the government to approve off shore drilling and more drilling in Alaska. What we do need is more alternatives to oil and at an affordable price. We have good technology available but it is still expensive. Wind, Solar and geothermal work but the price needs to come down so that every Joe can afford to use it. Develope electric cars that can give you 400 miles per charge and make them less than an SUV. Then go home and charge them with wind or solar power. We need to get away from oil dependancy, and sooner than later. Off my soapbox....

 

[Guest2]

Cut me some slack there Bear, I think I've taken a big enough hit since you left for G....

Slack Cut & Given ! We'll do better soon I'm sure.

 

[JTH]

It's been one hell-of-ah bloody time since you left us. I would have pulled out by now but can't even get a decent bounce. Besides I'm trying to set myself up for next month. I'd rather start the next month in stocks so I feel like I get an extra IFT.

The end of the month will prove one of us right or wrong. At least you managed to stem the bleeding... :blink:

 

[Guest2]

SB,Off my soapbox....

Many valid points Nasa, but I wouldn't mortgage the farm on change or
the effect of their efforts to make those changes. (no time soon). Corn,
Water, Wind, Solar, Nucular etc..... Jockeying for position can sometimes
be more amusing then the thoughts of them trying to help the common
man. In the 70's we had gas lines, odd / even gas days, gas cyphenors
and changes were well over due. Guess what happened. We forgot and
got over it until now. $4.00 per gallon until the next Gulf Tropic Storm.
Demand is starting to lower and life changes are inevitable. Who knows,
maybe in 20 years, we'll be looking at Solar Companies like we look at
the Exxons and BP's of the world today. It's just difficult to have such
a positive view of things, when you know your children will have it 2x's
harder then we have it today.

Boy, somebody gave me a quelude ! I'll call it quits for now and take a
nap. Sounds like I could certainly use one ! :nuts:

 

[Silverbird]

Well...actually a lot of the recent developments in alternate fuels and power generation are based on discoveries after the late 70's. For instance, solar cells that are produced now wouldn't exist without the nanometer line-drawing abilities we have now. Solar cells in the 80's were really expensive, manufactured pretty much piece by piece, and not cost efficient. So I would argue that we have better technology, let's put it to work.

No reason to give away wilderness if it's supposed to be wilderness, why call it wilderness and lease it to oil companies? Be truthful and sell it if that's what you are going to do. I prefer coastline development, that way the oil companies have to make a deal with the states, as long as there are no more raw deals like New Orleans got (Alaska gets revenues, Louisiana should too).

We can't afford to toss out the current environmental laws either, or we are going to put off a lot of unnecessary cleanup -- we didn't know better after WWII and we are still cleaning up a lot of rail road sitings and military bases of fuel and oil and other fun dumped over the sides - and of course I don't even want to talk about asbestos except to say we didn't know. We have no excuse pushing laws aside if we know there's going to be a problem.

 

[Guest2]

It's been one hell-of-ah bloody time since you left us. I would have pulled out by now but can't even get a decent bounce. Besides I'm trying to set myself up for next month. I'd rather start the next month in stocks so I feel like I get an extra IFT.

The end of the month will prove one of us right or wrong. At least you managed to stem the bleeding... :blink:

JTH, some of your thoughts concern me. The TSP Funds combined are
down 1.10% since I ran to the (G). I've heard close friends say that you
don't lose until you sell. I see it differently. If I finish down -5% at the
end of the year, but the C,S,I are down 10%, then I beat the funds. A
small victory considering I lost money, but whats the alternative? To
stay in the (G) ? I think not ! To leave it in a losing Fund ? I think not.
Markets go down, sometimes they go down alot ! To play a Bear (IMHO)
one must hit and run with small gains or know when to fold and accept
a loss. Otherwise, you open yourself to greater losses. When the Bull
was in full effect, the opposite held true. Now I'm no market guru, but
I am close enough to retirement to accept a bad decision and boogey
to the (G) when things turn to crap. Proving me wrong or right is like
doing battle between "Buy&Holders" and "FrequentTraders". I hope it
all turns around and you kick my butt in June (but not too badly). :nuts:
If your goal is to be in stocks come July and it means taking on
additional loses in the mean time, that might not be the best strategy.
But if this weeks Economic News, Earnings and Mother Nature give hope
to the faithful, then I'm all for it. I just don't feel its gonna happen.

 

[JTH]

I agree with you SB.

2 Weeks ago I had a different outlook based on the uptrend we were seeing. Then all of a sudden we are hitting resistence and then tanking again.

Based on what I've seen lately, I will have to be much more conservative with my IFTs. The good news is I'm ahead of C and I, the bad news is they are still tanking and I did a 3 way split with CSI this month.

If I have to cut my losses I will, but I know when I do, then the market will start rising again...

 

[Guest2]

Well...actually a lot of the recent developments in alternate fuels and power generation are based on discoveries after the late 70's. For instance, solar cells that are produced now wouldn't exist without the nanometer line-drawing abilities we have now. Solar cells in the 80's were really expensive, manufactured pretty much piece by piece, and not cost efficient. So I would argue that we have better technology, let's put it to work.

No reason to give away wilderness if it's supposed to be wilderness, why call it wilderness and lease it to oil companies? Be truthful and sell it if that's what you are going to do. I prefer coastline development, that way the oil companies have to make a deal with the states, as long as there are no more raw deals like New Orleans got (Alaska gets revenues, Louisiana should too).

We can't afford to toss out the current environmental laws either, or we are going to put off a lot of unnecessary cleanup -- we didn't know better after WWII and we are still cleaning up a lot of rail road sitings and military bases of fuel and oil and other fun dumped over the sides - and of course I don't even want to talk about asbestos except to say we didn't know. We have no excuse pushing laws aside if we know there's going to be a problem.

We're getting squeezed by $136 Oil and it could hit $150., If we learned
anything in the 70's, then we wouldn't be so dependant on oil as we are
today. America can achieve anything it puts its money and mind to. But
$18 per barrel put us back to sleep. One can only wonder if the Oil Bubble
Breaks, will America go back to sleep again. I hope not.

 

[Steadygain]

If I have to cut my losses I will, but I know when I do, then the market will start rising again...

Me no worry - me no cry - me just glad that cows don't fly.

I heard that at a very young age - thought my brother made it up - anyway it kind of goes with the moment. :laugh:

 

[Guest2]

If I have to cut my losses I will, but I know when I do, then the market will start rising again...

I've said and experienced that scenario more times then I can tell you.
Its painful sometimes. But if you make more good decisions then bad,
you'll come out a winner. Bad decisions are always possible. Thats why
they call it "risk". If your convinced that your goals are realistic and you
have a sound strategy (to get in & to get out) then you must stick to
the plan. But if the plan fails, you must be flexible enough to change
your plan to meet current market conditions. On June 12th, I bailed to
the (G) knowing I could miss a rebound. The next three days looked like
I made a poor decision because they rebounded and moved up to a
combined average of +1.83%. I was angry that I missed it as I was
down almost -5% the three days prior. Ultimately, I moved on and
accepted the loss. Since then, the market has dropped another 1.10%.
Instead of mourning my 5% loss, I now rejoice in the fact that I saved
myself from a 1.10% loss. Its all psychology, isn't it ?

By the way, please read my disclaimer below.
I'm just a humble Correctional Officer.

 

[Guest2]

Me no worry - me no cry - me just glad that cows don't fly.

I heard that at a very young age - thought my brother made it up - anyway it kind of goes with the moment. :laugh:

What perfect timing ! As always ! Bless You !
"Me no stupid, Me HaCowee Indian"
(F-Troop Reference)
:nuts:

 

[Guest2]

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents
(6/19/08) - .947% +0.27 tsp cents
(6/20/08) + .587% +0.13 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/23/08) - .166% +0.17 tsp cents

THE KEY:
- .05 thru -.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (Giveback Due)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (goal is met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent

 

[Guest2]

It would appear that the "High Range" deficit of +0.17 might be wasted on
yet another down day. For those who look to get into the (I) Fund should
be watching closely because there's still is a chance for a deficit increase
at this level.

The ideal scenario would be to buy into the (I) before noon and the Fund
Managers raise the deficit into the twenty cent range after the bell rings
today. The Dollar takes a hit tomarrow and Markets across the world rise
in a Bullish type move because oil takes a dump and the Fed "Gets Smart".

"Sorry about that Chief" (Movie Reference) I don't see this happening in
my astrological crystal ball. I believe any move upward would be a short
lived event. I still lean towards the Bear, but think it's getting more likely
that we could see a huge (one or two day) move up, to tease us.

The risk of just one hurricane developing in the Gulf is a little to high for
me. Should that happen, we'll see oil at $150 and equities dive hard. I
don't feel that "blood in the streets" is flowing yet.

 

[Corepuncher]

Aside from financials, I don't really believe the rest of the market has adjusted to recessionary prices yet...and could be a heavy one at that if oil stays high. Denial I guess.

 

[Guest2]

June consumer confidence slipped 13% to 50.4
Squalebear's confidence slipped 20% to 43.4

CNBC Guest Economist states the Fed has never been in the position
they find themselves in now. Recession vs. Inflation. Sounded like they're
in unfamiliar territory and will screw the pooch, no matter what direction
they focus on. This plays into a Fed decision to sit tight and do nothing.
At least for now.

 

[Guest2]

I'll post this question in the appropriate thread.

I can't help but wonder if Ocean will need to tweek the Automated
Tracker to reflect a daily (G) Fund revaluation, based on the new Four
Decimal system, for accuracy purposes?

 

[Corepuncher]

June consumer confidence slipped 13% to 50.4
Squalebear's confidence slipped 20% to 43.4

CNBC Guest Economist states the Fed has never been in the position
they find themselves in now. Recession vs. Inflation. Sounded like they're
in unfamiliar territory and will screw the pooch, no matter what direction
they focus on. This plays into a Fed decision to sit tight and do nothing.
At least for now.

I am tending to agree. I am of course tempted to buy some today, even just 10 or 20%...but I tend to think that there will be no FED rally tomorrow. Also, it is possible that some "bargain hunters" will swoop in at the close and the market today will close flat, after some major whipsaw action. Therefore...I will hold out in G for now. FED day could be a real doozy to the downside, IMO. I don't see how they can do anything that will enable a rally. No silver bullets this time. Say your prayers rabbit!