Squalebear's Account Talk

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Corepuncher said:
I am tending to agree. I am of course tempted to buy some today, even just 10 or 20%...but I tend to think that there will be no FED rally tomorrow. Also, it is possible that some "bargain hunters" will swoop in at the close and the market today will close flat, after some major whipsaw action. Therefore...I will hold out in G for now. FED day could be a real doozy to the downside, IMO. I don't see how they can do anything that will enable a rally. No silver bullets this time. Say your prayers rabbit!
Click to expand...

Duck Season,,Rabbit Season,,Duck Season,,Duck Season,,Rabbit Season
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~:nuts:~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I agree, this looks like a good time to put your foot into the water. BUT,
being a cautious investor is wiser then being wrong one. Should a rally
occur, one must ask a few questions. How long and how strong until the
shoe falls of the horse and your stuck driving a car again at $4 per gallon?
:confused:
 
Corepuncher said:
I am confident that not going in today is the right choice, for a much better opportunity awaits.
Click to expand...


How the hell did this market just go GREEN after being down 100 points at 11 AM EST. We had such awesome news today everyone is buying. The trap is being set on low volume to pump and dump.
 
Braveheart said:
How the hell did this market just go GREEN after being down 100 points at 11 AM EST. We had such awesome news today everyone is buying. The trap is being set on low volume to pump and dump.
Click to expand...

My guess is that it is an "oversold" rally. That might work in a bull market, but not now, I don't think...
 
Corepuncher said:
My guess is that it is an "oversold" rally. That might work in a bull market, but not now, I don't think...
Click to expand...

True - I remember the market would drop 200 points everytime the word Ambac was mentioned and now they have lost their AAA rating but it's as if it is no big deal.

We just got some terrible reports today and they look to continue so it doesn't matter what the Fed does now. We are a joke in the World now. If Ben had any stones he would raise rates since all the past cuts didn't do a thing for us except kill the dollar and spike Oil. He can stop that and shock the market tomorrow but 99.9% know he will do nothing.
 
I'm reading that Financials are responsible for the upward move in the
Market. At +.40% in the S&P500, I just don't think it'll end so high. The
Fed language is what investors are waiting for tomarrow. The market
already believes that interest rates will stay unchanged, they want
to read between the lines come tomarrow. The $VIX will be working
harder tomarrow, then it is today.
:worried:
 
For those of you in the (I) Fund, a positive day was squeezed out of the
rollercoaster ride today. Congratulations on getting a deficit payback of
0.12 tsp cents. Even if it would have looked better on a up day, it sure
beats losing the -0.45% as the EFA did. Once again, the deficit is within
its single digit goal. Today, cnbc's Pisani (don't like him) made some pretty
interesting comments about the rollercoaster ride and investors refusing
to react to the data presented. Consumer Confidence took a nose dive
( daaaaah ) and I'm seriously thinking of investing in a motorcycle for the
summer months. Snort,,, yep,,, bandana, chaps and a hot momma for the
intelligent conversation I so long for. And thats just to go to work. :nuts:

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents
(6/19/08) - .947% +0.27 tsp cents
(6/20/08) + .587% +0.13 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/23/08) - .166% +0.17 tsp cents
(6/24/08) + .543% +0.05 tsp cents :notrust:


THE KEY:
- .05 thru -.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (Giveback Due)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (goal is met) :notrust:
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent
 
If we have another good USM day tomarrow, the (I) Fund looks to do
a little catchup. No Onions, NO TOMATOES, plenty of meat. We'll see.
:D
 
squalebear said:
If we have another good USM day tomarrow, the (I) Fund looks to do
a little catchup. No Onions, NO TOMATOES, plenty of meat. We'll see.
:D
Click to expand...

I sure hope you're right. I've taken a huge beating in my 3-way CSI. The I fund has dropped the most and I'd like to finish the month on a good note :cheesy:
 
SB, Thanks for the “I” fund escrow update - it is very helpful.

We must now be at a bottom because, yesterday the oxygen masks finally dropped down from the nose-dive in the “I” fund. The dollar is plateau-ing and some semblance of a short-term bottom (or notch on a cliff) seems to be forming - both technically and empirically. However, still, there's lots of really dicey news and reality that worry me about after short-term.

Also, we're coming up on the end of the month and I still have 1 IFT left to move around a bit until the just before the end of June. Holding that remaining 1 IFT cost me 7.81%.
 
nsurf9 said:
SB, Thanks for the “I” fund escrow update - it is very helpful. We must now be at a bottom because, yesterday the oxygen masks finally dropped down from the nose-dive in the “I” fund. The dollar is plateau-ing and some semblance of a short-term bottom (or notch on a cliff) seems to be forming - both technically and empirically. However, still, there's lots of really dicey news and reality that worry me about after short-term. Also, we're coming up on the end of the month and I still have 1 IFT left to move around a bit until the just before the end of June. Holding that remaining 1 IFT cost me 7.81%.
Click to expand...

Based on what I just saw (and will publish too) the (I) took a swing up,
to a level I've never seen before. Today looked great for every fund but
the (I) when comparing it to the EFA. Now, an overpayment exist. Big
Time. Be patient as today may not mean the downward slope is over.
:confused:
 
I don't know if this is a EFA flaw (-0.81%) or a TSP flaw (+1.13%). If its
the EFA, it would be safe to stay in the (I) Fund. If its the TSP, then the
ultimate payback could come in one day,,,,or,,,,in several days. Anyones
guess is as good as mine, as I've never seen such the leap to the Red
Side in one day. Maybe they've done a reversal into the overpayment side
and the (I) Funds will strive for single digits but in the red area. :confused:

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents
(6/19/08) - .947% +0.27 tsp cents
(6/20/08) + .587% +0.13 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/23/08) - .166% +0.17 tsp cents
(6/24/08) + .543% +0.05 tsp cents
(6/25/08)+1.938% -0.38 tsp cents :mad:

THE KEY:
- .05 thru -.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (Giveback Due) :mad:
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (goal is met)
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.27 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent
 
Stock Futures are taking a Beating.
Europe is getting hammered big time.
Oil and Gold are up and Japan closed
unchanged. Yesterday might be the
best day of the week. Ooouuch ! :mad:
 
Don't be fooled by the EFA doing better then the
DWCPF and SPX. Right now its down -.90%, but
you must remember that there's an overpayment
yesterday and the (I) Fund will payback some of
what it owes through having a larger loss then
the EFA. If it paid back all (not likely) of the
overpayment in one day, the (I) Fund would be
down -2.59% right now. Simply put, I see a much
bigger loss in the (I) Fund vs the loss that the EFA
will incurr.
:mad:
 
Oh Squalebear my resolve is starting to weaken. I almost think I should have bailed on Wed and just sucked up the losses. The only good news I have is that I'm ahead of C by 1.6 & I by 2.5 What a bloody time, I'm almost at the point of bailing and not getting back in untill we stay above the 200 day moving average.

Looks like the market didn't like what the Fed said...
 
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