Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Bank of Scotland warns of market crash

06/18/2008 13:34:09
EDINBURGH, Scotland, Jun 18, 2008 (UPI via COMTEX News Network) -- The Royal Bank of Scotland warned its clients of a global stock market crash that could be among the worst in the past 100 years. The bank predicted a 300-point drop in the Standard and Poor's 500 index by September, the Telegraph reported Wednesday. That represents about a 21-percent drop from the current S&P 500 level. The bank's credit strategist Bob Janjuah said, "a very nasty period is soon to be upon us." "I do not think I can be much blunter," Janjuah said. "If you have to be in credit, focus on quality, short durations, non-cyclical defensive names." Cash is the key safe haven," he said. Kit Jukes, head of the bank's debt markets, said "economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire." Jukes said "the political fall-out" in Europe "could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB."

 

[luv2read]

Bank of Scotland warns of market crash

06/18/2008 13:34:09
EDINBURGH, Scotland, Jun 18, 2008 (UPI via COMTEX News Network) -- Kit Jukes, head of the bank's debt markets, said "economic weakness is spreading and the latest data on consumer demand and confidence are dire." Jukes said "the political fall-out" in Europe "could be substantial as finance ministers from the weaker economies rail at the ECB."

Aren't we one of the weakest of those "weaker economies?":cheesy:

 

[Fivetears]

Be it Scottland, or China... our USM's be pulled under, like saving someone from drowning. :worried:

 

[Guest2]

A few more related articles.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/16/bcnecb116.xml

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cnrbs118.xml

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/cmstockmarket18.xml

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/06/18/bcnrbs118.xml

 

[Fivetears]

After reading those articles,
I'm convinced it's going to get ugly... real ugly.

 

[Birchtree]

Don't believe everything you read. Don't you have dishes to dry.

 

[XL-entLady]

Don't believe everything you read. Don't you have dishes to dry.

Are you picking on Steady's little brother? You know, a little more fiber in your diet might fix that. :laugh: Kidding! Kidding!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Are you picking on Steady's little brother? You know, a little more fiber in your diet might fix that. :laugh:

Lady

That's funny!!

See Kar Crazy's thread - post #615

Birch is my big brother and I'd have to say I'm really glad he is because these Markets don't bother me in the least.

Let em dive - I'll just buy more at a cheaper price.:toung:

Well good night all - finally caught up on all the charts.

 

[Guest2]

After reading those articles, I'm convinced it's going to get ugly... real ugly.

Ok, its a dead cat with NO bounce :nuts:

Don't believe everything you read. Don't you have dishes to dry.

I don't believe everything, I read somewhere that today could see a nice move up, I didn't believe it for a second. :nuts:

Are you picking on Steady's little brother? You know, a little more fiber in your diet might fix that.Kidding! Kidding! Lady

He's not Lady, but a little less starch in those boxers couldn't hurt. Besides, I think he was talking to Fivetears, I don't do dishes ! :nuts:

these Markets don't bother me in the least. Let em dive - I'll just buy more at a cheaper price.

I'll wait in the (G) and start to buy after the dive. After all, I have no choice. If all this doom and gloom has teeth, maybe I'm a lucky little brother. Not wishing harm to anyone, I'm glad the market is making me feel good about jumping ship to safety.

 

[Guest2]

The deficit stays within single digits. The (S) Fund may soon follow as
the leader of a down trend. (if it continues). It took the lead during the
upward move, only time will tell. Banks, Blood and Fear are all over the
printed media. Sometimes, thats what good investors are looking for.
But how far is down from here. 1225 ? Do you really expect the S&P500
to hit 1500 by years end ? Just a little Government Cheese with that
Whine please ! :nuts:

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/09/08) - .420% -0.12 tsp cents
(6/10/08) + .152% -0.08 tsp cents
(6/11/08) - .121% -0.11 tsp cents
(6/12/08) + .126% -0.08 tsp cents
(6/13/08) - .121% -0.11 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/16/08) - .203% -0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% -0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% -0.06 tsp cents :worried:

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (Giveback Due)
- .00 thru -.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (goal is met) :worried:
- .10 thru -.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
- .16 thru -.23 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent

 

[Guest2]

After looking at my deficit key and daily deficit results, I can only imagine
how confusing the minus signs make it for the occassional viewer. With
that in mind, I've decided to switch the minus signs to positive and the
positive signs to negative. This way, if you see +0.16 tsp cents, its easier
to see that we have .16 tsp cents coming to us. Or am I over thinking the
whole thing. Honestly, I'm not sure if anyone even uses this information.

Feedback is requested and deeply appreciated !

 

[DCguy]

I notice that the US market follows the trend of Euro market and the Asian market follows the market trend of the US. Euro is up and I expect the US to be up today slightly about 0.2%.

 

[CorMaGa34]

After looking at my deficit key and daily deficit results, I can only imagine
how confusing the minus signs make it for the occassional viewer. With
that in mind, I've decided to switch the minus signs to positive and the
positive signs to negative. This way, if you see +0.16 tsp cents, its easier
to see that we have .16 tsp cents coming to us. Or am I over thinking the
whole thing. Honestly, I'm not sure if anyone even uses this information.

Feedback is requested and deeply appreciated !

Squalebear,

I do read and use your results. If I saw a deficit with a minus sign (which to me would equate to a DOUBLE NEGATIVE), as a result I would see that amount as a POSITIVE coming to us.

It is possible that some viewers would rather see a positive amount than be misled by seeing a minus sign. Either way would be ok with me, I only hope it does not mess up your analysis somehow, as you would have to concentrate on making the deficit amounts as positive.

Thank you for your effort in helping us make better decisions, we (I) sure need all the help we (I) can get!

Have a good day everyone!

CorMaGa34

 

[Steadygain]

Squalebear,

I do read and use your results. If I saw a deficit with a minus sign (which to me would equate to a DOUBLE NEGATIVE), as a result I would see that amount as a POSITIVE coming to us.

Thank you for your effort in helping us make better decisions, we (I) sure need all the help we (I) can get!

Have a good day everyone!

CorMaGa34

Cornellia is a genius with one of highest IQ's recorded, photographic memory to boot and a natural whiz at almost anything you can imagine. So the double negatives would naturally be seen as a positive - without the slightest thought.

SB - for the rest of us (99.99%) - you're new idea a Positive and Negative being just that makes it a lot easier. Thanks little brother.

SG

 

[Guest2]

So there you have it, what is positive for us, is positive in publishing.
I developed this thing off of my Spreadsheet Tracking. There will be
no conflict in my tracking. I felt it might be confusing and now I'm
sure of it. By the way, thanks for letting me know of its value to you.
I see it everyday in my tracking and didn't need to publish my findings
unless others found it useful. My next entry will be a revised edition.
Thanks soooooo much for the input. I feel wanted ! :nuts:

 

[luv2read]

So there you have it, what is positive for us, is positive in publishing.
I developed this thing off of my Spreadsheet Tracking. There will be
no conflict in my tracking. I felt it might be confusing and now I'm
sure of it. By the way, thanks for letting me know of its value to you.
I see it everyday in my tracking and didn't need to publish my findings
unless others found it useful. My next entry will be a revised edition.
Thanks soooooo much for the input. I feel wanted ! :nuts:

love you and your spreadsheet too! I use the numbers SB.

 

[Guest2]

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(6/09/08) - .420% +0.12 tsp cents
(6/10/08) + .152% +0.08 tsp cents
(6/11/08) - .121% +0.11 tsp cents
(6/12/08) + .126% +0.08 tsp cents
(6/13/08) - .121% +0.11 tsp cents
----------------------------------
(6/16/08) - .203% +0.16 tsp cents
(6/17/08) + .355% +0.07 tsp cents
(6/18/08) + .081% +0.06 tsp cents :worried:

THE KEY:
- .05 thru -.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (Giveback Due)
+.00 thru+.09 Low Deficit, (I) Fund Owed Minor (goal is met) :worried:
+.10 thru+.15 Medium Deficit, (I) Fund Owed (Flip A Coin)
+.16 thru+.23 High Deficit, (I) Fund Payback Imminent

 

[Guest2]

love you and your spreadsheet too! I use the numbers SB.

Ditto

 

[INVSTSMRT78]

Just stopping by to say hello Squalebear! I'll try to dechipher these numbers. HA!

 

[Guest2]

Just stopping by to say hello Squalebear! I'll try to dechipher these numbers. HA!

I track the (I) Fund daily result. The (I) Fund consists of a ton of stocks listed within the MSCI EAFE INDEX. However, I can't track the MSCI EAFE INDEX during normal trading hours. So I searched for a ETF (electronically traded fund) which consisted of the same basket of stocks. Thats why the EFA is utilized (to see how well the (I) might be doing). The EFA has its own unique set of fees, charges and dividends associated with it. However, it has the same goal as the (I) Fund.

TO CLOSELY REFLECT THE YTD RETURNS OF THE MSCI EAFE INDEX.

So its the (I) vs. EFA that I've watched for the past 3 years. Barclays manages the (I) and has its own fees,,,,etc. When you get right down to it, both the EFA and (I) need to keep their YTD results close to the INDEX. But during tracking, I noticed that Barclays allows large swings in their results, because of Fair Value (FV) and other factors. A trend developed and when the (I) Fund does poorly against the EFA, somehow, someway it must make up the difference on a YTD basis. Thus I called it a "Deficit".

Check out the KEY to get an idea of what the deficits could lead to. Go back and read some of the comments associated to the deficit. You'll get a better feel for what I'm saying. This tracking is not used to forecast what the (I) Fund will do on any given day, but I use it to pick and choose my allocations within the (I) before limits were imposed. Just how much this helps with limits is yet to be determined.