Squalebear's Account Talk

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squalebear said:
It wasn't long ago that I wrote this to FAB1. I guess my decisions are as fluid as the
market. I stayed Invested at 40% and looky, looky. I've been missing the first day of
the month upward moves for quite some time because I've bailed out of the funds
before the end of the previous months. Maybe someone can tell me if it's just my
imagination, or, has the first day of the month (for the last 12) been very
generous to us TSP share holders?:confused: I certainly would like to know if this thought
is backed by proof or just perception on my part.

IN ANY CASE, it sure does feel good being a part of this day, even @ 40% :)
Click to expand...

Insane Pattern: Stocks Gain More on First Day of Month Than Rest of Month Combined

There you go, CareBear, your imagination is real!
imagine that!
btw--- Happy Belated B-Day!
 
Same thing from circa 2008...

Investing on the First Day of the Month

Since the start of this decade, the S&P 500 is now down -2.9% (toss in dividends, it’s up +11.7%). However, investing in just the first day of the month has delivered a return of 35.4%.

 
Indeed, the below information is something to ponder before making a strategic move.
After all, If your out of the TSP totally, You can't go back in until the second day
(trading) of the month. February is a prime example. If you were 100% (G) at the end
of January 31st, you could put in a change on February 1st, but your money will
not be working the Market until February 2nd. IE..... You would have missed the
first trading day of the month. By the way, love the link and chart. Thanks !

I had a gut feeling about the great MTD figures we have now. I'm thinking that the
current numbers would look great at the end of the month. But a dip before hand
is more likely because of our early success. Bottom Line, I bailed to the (G) Fund and
await another great entry point. Boy, I hate waiting for dips when everyone else
is hoping for a ride up that mountain. :embarrest:
 
The last couple of days has taken me back to a time when I spent HOURS
on this website. Boy, I miss those days ! Thats it for now, Good Luck Every1 ! :)
 
The (I) Fund gave us more of a return then the $EFDY did yesterday. This overpayment
will be paid back tonight. So, even though the $EFDY closed up +0.45% it won't be the
same for the (I) Fund. Currently that would mean the (I) Fund will lose
approximately -0.03 cents per share and leave us with a ending share price of;
$20.9317. Of coarse, Barclays could increase or decrease this difference at any time.
However, they have been very consistant and I expect something very close. ;)
 
A last minute spike in the $EFDY allowed it to close up +0.68%

Due to the above, I now think the (I) Fund will come close to breaking

even with very little change in the share price. Don't mind me, I like the

guessing game I have with Barclays. :cheesy:
 
Imagine being a Buy and Hold type of investor. Now look at the "Registered" phrase just below the TSPTalk.com Logo. Wait, don't bother ! I'll tell you myself. "FRIENDS DON'T LET FRIENDS BUY AND HOLD". With that said, one might wonder why this is such a good idea when some of our most famous B&H'rs are up well over Four and a Quarter Percent (+4.25%) on a Year-To-Date basis. Well, there's a large percentage of members here that believe that they could average even greater gains by missing "Dips" and out right "Corrections". I am one of them.

Don't get me wrong ! Buying stocks cheaper, accumulating greater number of shares at a lower cost makes all the sense in the world. Dollar cost averaging (DCA'ing) is something that many savvy investors utilize when it comes to their TSP and Personal Stock Portfolio's. Yesterday, a man who gets paid bookoo bucks to evaluate market trends and assist major corporations with their investment strategies started talking about something that immediately got my full attention.

The topic was about an "Impending Correction" of approximately 5%-6% in the next few weeks. A different Advisor stated a "Correction" of about 10%, however, I had very little confidence in this professional and disregarded any said by her. With that said, even the strongest B&H'ers here at TSPTalk believes that most Bull Market dislikes too many passenger's hopping on the train and will "shake the tree" in order to lighten the load. I also agree that this happens, because I've been a witness to this on several occassions.

Now to the final point ! If we have a true "Correction" coming, the way you handle such a downward move can be the difference between success and failure. My good friend Birchtree will no doughtedly call everyone to "stay tight and be right" as he continues to pick up more and more Shares at a cheaper price. I tend to be a Hit & Run kinda investor who makes every effort to "catch a falling knife" by avoiding the losses and jumping back in somewhere at the bottom. Luck would play a crucial roll in this endevor and its not made for everyone.

Whether you're a B&H'er or a H&R'er, one thing stays remains pretty much the same. Consistancy is Key ! If your committed to staying in the Market no matter what, don't change your mind. Keep doing what makes you comfortable (risk wise) and stick to your guns. Indecision is your enemy and one should always have a game Plan should this market turn to the downside. Hey, don't panic ! Read up on the different strategies should a "Correction" come our way. Ask the "Old-Heads" what they would do. Above all, make a informed decision and stick to the plan. :)
 
I'm playing 2011 like it is 1995 all over again because of the levels of liquidity heading into the market. The market didn't see even a minor consolidation in all of 1995. The Dow rallied nearly 60% in 1995 alone. The current risk is being out of the market not being in - at least that's my thinking. Also since 1940 there has never been more than one 10% (or more) correction in an ongoing bull market. April '10 gave us a painful 16% give back. The dumb money indicator continues to be very bullish to an extreme degree and it takes bulls to make a bull market. Laszlo Birinyi said the average length and size of bull markets suggests the SPX will rally to 2854 on 9/2013. And the rally should continue to run for another 32 months and I plan to catch every nickle.
 
squalebear said:
Now to the final point ! If we have a true "Correction" coming, the way you handle such a downward move can be the difference between success and failure. My good friend Birchtree will no doughtedly call everyone to "stay tight and be right" as he continues to pick up more and more Shares at a cheaper price. I tend to be a Hit & Run kinda investor who makes every effort to "catch a falling knife" by avoiding the losses and jumping back in somewhere at the bottom. Luck would play a crucial roll in this endevor and its not made for everyone.

Whether you're a B&H'er or a H&R'er, one thing stays remains pretty much the same. Consistancy is Key ! If your committed to staying in the Market no matter what, don't change your mind. Keep doing what makes you comfortable (risk wise) and stick to your guns. Indecision is your enemy and one should always have a game Plan should this market turn to the downside. Hey, don't panic ! Read up on the different strategies should a "Correction" come our way. Ask the "Old-Heads" what they would do. Above all, make a informed decision and stick to the plan. :)
Click to expand...

Thanx for the advise, SB. Reviewing my previous year's trades I see that on a number of occasions I bought into a sell-off. At the time I kicked myself for not selling a day earlier (the old woulda/coulda/shoulda), but now I can see that I would have been better off several days later just riding out the sell-off.

Of course on some of those trades the sell-off came late in the afternoon and I had already commited by the TSP deadline. Not much we can do at that point but move on and see how we can recover.
 
Cactus said:
Thanx for the advise, SB. Reviewing my previous year's trades I see that on a number of occasions I bought into a sell-off. At the time I kicked myself for not selling a day earlier (the old woulda/coulda/shoulda), but now I can see that I would have been better off several days later just riding out the sell-off.

Of course on some of those trades the sell-off came late in the afternoon and I had already commited by the TSP deadline. Not much we can do at that point but move on and see how we can recover.
Click to expand...

As Birchtree would tell you, the bright side to your statement is "you bought
more shares at a cheaper price". When the Market returned to the level you
started to buy in, you'd have not only more shares, but a bigger Acct. Balance.
Trying to catch the bottom is more then a tricky situation to achieve, its down right
dangerous. Thats why there's an old saying "Its like trying to catch a falling knife".
As far as "Moving On" goes, you hit the nail on the head ! Good, Bad or Unchanged,
Moving On and learning from the experience is vital to success.
 
Today, I made a IFT !!!!!!!!! Knowing my timing hasn't been what it use to be,
this should frighten a couple of Billion TSP Participants back to the (G). :nuts:
Most went into the (I)Fund 50% and the remaining 50% went into the US Market
at 30%(S) and 20%(C) respectively. Good Luck Everyone !
 
jpcavin said:
Took a leap of faith and went in 100% I. Crossing my fingers and gritting my teeth. Good luck!:D
Click to expand...

First off, anyone with a Avitar such as yours, should get free profits, plain and simple !
Here kitty, kitty, kitty ! :nuts: Speaking of Kitty, you say that you took your whole kitty
(100%) and put it in the (I)Fund. Maybe we can both get alittle lucky this time out.
I was thinking that the (I)Fund was poised to catch up (YTD) with the other high
risk funds. Hopefully, this holds true and we'll run to the Bank ! Chaaa - Chiing ! :toung:
 
I don't know if the "I" will catch up but I'm hoping a bit of dollar relief with a continued uptrend market next week will at least make us feel better.
 
squalebear said:
First off, anyone with a Avitar such as yours, should get free profits, plain and simple !
Here kitty, kitty, kitty ! :nuts:
Click to expand...

Funny! I was in a rush to put something up before my boss walked in. It was actually supposed to be animated but I can't figure out how to do that. :confused:
 
jpcavin said:
Funny! I was in a rush to put something up before my boss walked in. It was actually supposed to be animated but I can't figure out how to do that. :confused:
Click to expand...

If its animated, then its probably a (.gif) and when opened within Internet Explorer
it will move and do some pretty cool stuff. I don't know how to make them move
as our Avitars. This would be a great question to ask Tom. or maybe someone else
has the knowledge we seek. Good Luck !
 
I've seen a few avitars that are animated so perhaps they will share their knowledge? I did ask Tom. I'm patiently waiting for a reply;)
 
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