Squalebear's Account Talk

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Mcqlives said:
SB, Just posting my thoughts on your thread since I value your opinion (hint hint) and as we both bailed at the same time before this last drop.
Click to expand...

Well, as of now we have a "No Harm Done" scenario lurking as the (S)Fund
climbs another +0.39%. We're still better off because the last drop still has
-1.28% to make up for by tomorrow. If your timeline is telling you that March
is still going to drop (I believe its past due) then jumping back into risk might
take a back seat to slow caution. Should I decide to stay out, (I believe I will),
then the market could see even more gains before the drop and I'm willing to miss
every penny in order to avoid any correction. I guess this should not come as any
big surprise as I tend to be a "Hit & Run" type of investor since 2008. I am also quite
happy to make a profit, even if its below the TSP Risk Funds. The clock is ticking and
I plan on withdrawing my remaining funds (33% of my original balance) within the next
few years. Although this information might not be needed by the masses, it might give
you a better understanding where my head is at. ;)
 
Thanks! I just wish there was a magic clock that tells us when! I hope we will be good for 2 to 3% upside before the 5 to 7% drop I expect (maybe worse) and I hope to time both for maximum profit! I have 9 years left before I retire so I have some time yet...plus private investments which consistently outperform thrift. TSP seems to have become my play money over the past couple of years.
 
Mcqlives said:
Thanks! I just wish there was a magic clock that tells us when! I hope we will be good for 2 to 3% upside before the 5 to 7% drop I expect (maybe worse) and I hope to time both for maximum profit! I have 9 years left before I retire so I have some time yet...plus private investments which consistently outperform thrift. TSP seems to have become my play money over the past couple of years.
Click to expand...

If you ever find a store that sells those clocks, I expect a phone call immediately !:nuts:
You put a smile on this face twice. Firstly, you said you have 9 years left and I'm very
happy for you. It also allows enough time to recover from pretty much anything ! ;)
Secondly, you said you had outperforming investments outside the TSP world. That
my friend is fantastic. You should be proud of yourself for having the ability and
taking advantage of it. :) Good for you !
 
Thanks SB! Hope to break (or push) around 1.1 to 1.2 mil between TSP and private upon retirement. If I then go into a conservative growth I should be able to pull out about 40g in interest. This plus the retirement (including offsetting the + and - differences in the working vs. retired paychecks) should give me a take home of more than what I make now. Considering I started with negative numbers 15 years ago (except for Walmart Stock which I have long since sold) when I came on this job, I think I have done really well.

Simply put, I have you and many others like you on this site to thank for the streak I have had. Several people I used to read regularly no longer post here...I like to think that they still come in and visit but just choose to not post. If any of you old timers (for this site) fit this description and read this post THANK YOU TOO!!!.

People coming into this site need to read, and read between the lines of, the posts routinely put here. The links, the analysis, the ribbing all help me keep a clearer eye on the market issues than I could do by myself. I have made mistakes (hence my about 18% return in the S fund last year as opposed to the 29% the S fund caught) but the diverse commentary on here points me towards so many issues I would normally not research. For example, today I was looking at the ISM as a key market mover (along with a host of other concerns) when I read a post by BT about large caps and small caps in the coming months. This got me looking at bonds and inflation in a different light. It did not change my short term expectations of the market but my 2 to 4 month view changed dramatically. So anyway, here I am and always trying to learn something new!

Take care and thanks!

-mcq
 
Mcqlives said:
a post by BT about large caps and small caps in the coming months.
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:D Dont forget to check his posting history if you want to hear more of the same! Large Cap Birch is going to keep it up till, "eventually" it comes true and odds are it will, someday. arf!
 
FAB1 said:
:D Dont forget to check his posting history if you want to hear more of the same! Large Cap Birch is going to keep it up till, "eventually" it comes true and odds are it will, someday. arf!
Click to expand...

I have also heard the large cap drum for years. The article that Birch referenced this time was interesting to read and actually made me do some additional research.
 
Mcqlives said:
I have also heard the large cap drum for years. The article that Birch referenced this time was interesting to read and actually made me do some additional research.
Click to expand...

Many of our members (BT included) are a unique group of highly motivated investors.
Each bring their own perspective (right, wrong or indifferent) to the table and share thoughts
of the Market and the Events which may affect it. Thats the glory of our membership. I've not
found another site quite like it. I came aboard following the EBB Chart and became a learner of
a great many things, both related and unrelated to EBB. Because I've always been a man
of modest means, I left EBB when it became a Premium Service. I was soon to realize that
a combination of research, learning and a sprinkle of luck allowed this member to surpass
most of my hopes and expectations. (Like most of us) I started late and failed to recognize
the importance of time and compounding. My first year of service to the Bureau, I failed to
open a TSP Account. My Second and Third year, I was only capable of investing 3% of my
paycheck towards the TSP. My fourth year 5% invested. From there, every Cost Of Living
Increase included a 1% hike into my TSP (unless we only got 1% or less). By 2009 (my last
year of service) I was contributing 18% of my Salary and accumulated just over $150k in
my TSP. To some, that figure won't look impressive at all. But know this ! I'm fully aware that
50% of all Retirement Funds held a balance of $50k or less (according to statistics) and I'm
damn proud to be where I was, as opposed to where I could have been. Don't get me wrong,
I would have liked to have known what I know now. Thats the beauty of Tom's hard work and
a Testament to the loyal and caring members hear at TSPTalk.com. In 1990, we didn't have
this kind of information available to us. If we did, I have no doubt that you'd be speaking to
a man rather close to a seven figure account balance. This place is a GOLD MINE.

Ok ! This wasn't expected when I started ! :nuts: Ah, maybe it will convince some bystanders to
climb aboard, get to know us and profit from the experience. I did. :)
 
squalebear said:
Many of our members (BT included) are a unique group of highly motivated investors.
Each bring their own perspective (right, wrong or indifferent) to the table and share thoughts
of the Market and the Events which may affect it. Thats the glory of our membership. I've not
found another site quite like it. I came aboard following the EBB Chart and became a learner of
a great many things, both related and unrelated to EBB. Because I've always been a man
of modest means, I left EBB when it became a Premium Service. I was soon to realize that
a combination of research, learning and a sprinkle of luck allowed this member to surpass
most of my hopes and expectations. (Like most of us) I started late and failed to recognize
the importance of time and compounding. My first year of service to the Bureau, I failed to
open a TSP Account. My Second and Third year, I was only capable of investing 3% of my
paycheck towards the TSP. My fourth year 5% invested. From there, every Cost Of Living
Increase included a 1% hike into my TSP (unless we only got 1% or less). By 2009 (my last
year of service) I was contributing 18% of my Salary and accumulated just over $150k in
my TSP. To some, that figure won't look impressive at all. But know this ! I'm fully aware that
50% of all Retirement Funds held a balance of $50k or less (according to statistics) and I'm
damn proud to be where I was, as opposed to where I could have been. Don't get me wrong,
I would have liked to have known what I know now. Thats the beauty of Tom's hard work and
a Testament to the loyal and caring members hear at TSPTalk.com. In 1990, we didn't have
this kind of information available to us. If we did, I have no doubt that you'd be speaking to
a man rather close to a seven figure account balance. This place is a GOLD MINE.

Ok ! This wasn't expected when I started ! :nuts: Ah, maybe it will convince some bystanders to
climb aboard, get to know us and profit from the experience. I did. :)
Click to expand...

"Testament to the loyal and caring members hear at TSPTalk.com"

You have a forth comming and excellent post here and the statement above describes you almost to a T. You have been one of the most caring and and one of the heartbeats of this site. Sometimes you post are like you are showing real concern about others as if we are a family. I am so glad to see you posting more frequently.
 
Bquat said:
"Testament to the loyal and caring members hear at TSPTalk.com"

You have a forth comming and excellent post here and the statement above describes you almost to a T. You have been one of the most caring and and one of the heartbeats of this site. Sometimes you post are like you are showing real concern about others as if we are a family. I am so glad to see you posting more frequently.
Click to expand...

Very well stated. You are #1 in my book. We look forward to your posts about the market, your health, and family.
 
Frixxxx said:
Good Luck to you too, Brother!:cool:

Give the Woo a razzzzzberry for me!!!!! For luck!:nuts:
Click to expand...

I've been in (ouch!) but have high hopes for next week. Do you think this was the correction you have been expecting or are you just getting itchy now and expect something later this month or early next? I think this drop was largely oil driven and did not give back enough to start a good next leg up. I think (hope) this will drive back up to the 1357ish area and fizzle. Hope I am right for the 1357 and wrong on the fizzle. Have a great weekend!
 
Mcqlives said:
Do you think this was the correction you have been expecting or are you just getting itchy now and expect something later this month or early next?
Click to expand...

No, I don't think this was the Correction that's been talked about. Geo Political
concerns in Lybia and again in Saudi Arabia have definately affected the price of
oil. Now, the very real danger of radiation leakage in Japan might hit the markets
too. Especially in the (I) Fund. The US Market did well while watching a Tsunami
and 8.9 earthquake destroy those poor people. However, I fear the radiation
leakage could change everything. My thoughts of us having another push upward
(1%-2%) could be dashed. I decided to take a risk, plain and simple. I jump in
and out of the market quite often (but you know that) in hopes to cop a descent
gain, then bail. Again, its just as important to miss the drop as it is to ride the train.
The longer this impending Correction takes, the bigger (I believe) it'll be. My original
guess was 5% - 7%. That could easily turn into a 10% - 15% Correction, but that
would mean more upside before that kind of Correction happens. ;)

I've got my eyes closed and fingers crossed, but not for long. I saved my acct. from
a -3.36% loss since bailing to the (G)arage back on 2/18/11 and that also gives
me a little cushion (just in case). And yes, the move also takes care of those nasty
ants in my pants. (as you said) They can be abit itchy ! :laugh:
 
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