Squalebear's Account Talk

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The AGG is down -.26% YTD, while the (F) Fund is still up +1.31% YTD.
A little lop-sided, dont'cha think. That is a full 1.58% difference or .19 tsp
cents. This kind a difference does not make sense to me. This little tidbit
will keep me away from the (F) when June comes busting through.

Right now, I feel I might pause, before jumping into stocks (come June 2).
Even if we see some sizable loses on Friday, my gut says to sit & wait for
a better entry point. Should stocks do well today and friday, that would
only reinforce this feeling of intelligent delay. Whats the hurry, I've got
all month to get my gains.

HAVE YOU NOTICED I'M TRYING TO TALK MYSELF INTO BEING PATIENT. IT'S WORKING !
 
Wall Street gains as investors welcome an improved
GDP reading, a stronger dollar and weaker crude prices.

Gas hits 22nd record high: The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas rose to a record $3.952 from the previous day's record of $3.944, AAA reported.
GDP revised higher: Economic growth in the first quarter grew at a faster paced than initially thought, the government reported. U.S. gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 0.9%, as expected, versus the initial reading of 0.6%. The Core PCE deflator, the report's closely-watched inflation component, was 2.2%.
Retail earnings: Sears Holdings reported a quarterly loss versus a profit a year earlier on weaker revenue, missing analysts' estimates. Shares fell 3.6%. Costco reported higher earnings that topped analysts' estimates on higher revenue that missed expectations. Shares were barely changed.
Like Costco, Big Lots benefited from struggling consumers seeking bargains, posting higher quarterly sales and earnings that topped expectations. Shares gained 7.5%.
JPMorgan-Bear Stearns deal closes: As expected, the majority of Bear Stearns shareholders endorsed JPMorgan Chase's proposed takeover of the brokerage, which nearly collapsed amid the subprime mortgage market meltdown. Both stocks gained.
Jobless claims rise: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose 4,000 to 372,000 last week, topping expectations.
Other markets: The dollar gained versus the euro and yen. Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 4.08% from 4% late Monday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers 3 to 2 on volume of 1.23 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners by a similar margin on volume of 1.93 billion shares.
 
Something big is about to happen here with the bulls continuing to have the advantage right now. We are coiling here big time and the bears once again have their backs against the wall of worry and it won't take much more to have the shorts cover with both hands. The VIX will be heading below 16 next week.
 
Congratulations to those who saw through all the negativity and had their
money in the (C) and (S) Funds since Tuesday. The (I) underperformed
the EFA by a little more then a quarter percent. This added to the YTD
underperformance (deficit) and brought the differences between the two
funds to -.57% YTD. By converting the YTD % into tsp cents, this turns
out to be the .17 tsp cent deficit. Under the key, you'll find it a "Flip-a
-coin" area. That means the Fund Managers decisions to add or subtract
from the deficit could go either way.


EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents

(5/26/08) Memorial Day Holiday
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents
(5/28/08) + .515% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/29/08)-.279%-0.17tsp cents :blink:
(5/30/08)

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru-.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin) :blink:
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)
 
Birchtree said:
Something big is about to happen here with the bulls continuing to have the advantage right now. We are coiling here big time and the bears once again have their backs against the wall of worry and it won't take much more to have the shorts cover with both hands. The VIX will be heading below 16 next week.
Click to expand...

I can no longer blame low volume on this USM rally. After today's GDP,
the VIX heading down and all the other positive news, my fear is subsiding
but I want a better entry point. I simply hope I don't miss the cruise while
waiting on the dock. One more trading day until June. I'm gonna take this
one day at a time. Thanks for the info Birch, always appreciated.
 
Oooops ! My original post below showed a Medium Differential and not the
actual High Differential that .17 tsp cents represents. My Bad ! Sorry for
the error. If the EFA has an up day tomarrow, maybe the Fund Managers
will throw us a bone of an additional .05 tsp cents into the (I) Fund. The
deficit is not in it's twenties yet, but it's still in the high range. GL
;)

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents

(5/26/08) Memorial Day Holiday
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents
(5/28/08) + .515% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/29/08)-.279%-0.17tsp cents :blink:
(5/30/08)

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru-.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher) :D
 
It's being said that we've seen this before. Oil prices take a minor slide,
stocks take a big jump up, oil prices rebound up, stocks get smacked hard

I'm sceeeeared ! But thats ok, I couldn't get out of the (G) today, even if
I wanted to. AND I don't. The SPX and DWCPF open just shy of a quarter
percent 4 minutes ago. Good Luck to everyone in the Market !

Oh yes, I messed up the Deficit for the (I) again, its now -.14 tsp cents.
Accuracy is essential and that makes two revisions, I'm embarrassed, Sorry.
The change will be reflected in my next update tonight.......Pooh !!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
The (I) Fund and the EFA daily closing % results were so close, that the
differences between the two did not add nor subtract to the deficit. It
still holds at -.14 tsp cents. All four funds made gains today and a few
things stand out. The (S) fund is only -0.05% YTD which equals to one
.01 tsp cent away from it's 2008 YTD Closing High (19.79) and the AGG
which reflects the Lehman Bros. Aggregate Bond Fund, hit a new YTD
Low on Tuesday and currently holds a YTD Lose of -.18%,,The (F) Fund
is holding at +1.31% YTD. and closed at 12.09 cents per share. All in all,
a nice week to be in the Market.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents

(5/26/08) Memorial Day Holiday
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents
(5/28/08) + .515% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/29/08) - .279% -0.14 tsp cents
(5/30/08) + .022% -0.14 tsp cents :confused:

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru-.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin) :confused:
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)
 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~:D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Congratulations to "FEDGOLFER" for having such a great month of MAY !
No handicapping necessary for this Golfer, his +5.47% for the month is #1
:D~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~:D
 
At 5:05am the Dow Futures were down -.60%
The S&P 500 futures were down -.58%
The Nasdaq futures were down -.45%

Economic Reports Due Out Today:
US - Construction Spending 10:00AM
US - ISM Mfg Index 10:00AM

Can Earnings save the day.?
Oil is on the rise at 127.35 (up .73cents) !
Japan did well. +.71%
Europe is (FTSE 100) down -.90%
 
Last edited:
Better then expected BAD NEWS wasn't enough to excite the USM.
Oil has now rebound off its lows and is current trading at 127.69.
It's time to look at Tuesdays possible effect to see if I go in a little
today or hold off for a better entry. The OSM might take a day or
two to recover from a (I) Fund point of view.

:(
 
My gut says to be patient and don't jump in, with the hopes of a rebound
day. So, I'm staying put. 100% (G) A better entry is expected in the USM
first, with a better entry into the OSM lagging behind. Europe also has a
Inflation decision to make this week (concerning interest rates).
:confused:
 
EFFECT ON THE (I) FUND:
The dollar edged up against the euro on Monday, even as many investors
awaited U.S. data this week to see if the reports reinforce expectations
for higher interest rates.

The U.S. greenback has rebounded against the euro on the prospect of
the Federal Reserve eventually lifting rates. The dollar scored back-to-
back monthly gains against the euro in April and May for the first time
since early 2007.

Paulson Committed to Dollar as Reserve Currency.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Monday defended the dollar's
status as the world's reserve currency and said its recent decline was
only a small factor behind a surge in oil prices.
 
Does anyone know when the (G) Penny is expected to come in. I expect
Wednesday, but I don't track such things and the "G Thread" hasn't come
up with a response yet.
:confused:
 
Steadygain said:
No idea, but normally I only consider G
in terms of preservation. Look at it this way - you saved at least
15 pennies being there today :)
Click to expand...

That I did Big Brother. But I weigh the penny against the amount of risk
I would be facing when jumping into the red sea. Sometimes that penny
can push me into being patient before taking a plunge. For right now, I
think there's a small possibility for the (G) penny to come in tomarrow
instead of Wednesday. But Wed. being more likely.

There's preservation, and then, there's preservation with profit. :)
 
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