Squalebear's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
What was that old saying.... I'd never join a club that would have me as a member... This is my exception!! What an amazing group!! Thank you for all that you contribute.

John
 
Gaetaone said:
What was that old saying.... I'd never join a club that would have me as a member... This is my exception!! What an amazing group!! Thank you for all that you contribute. John
Click to expand...

Thanks John, If I may, I'd like to share a portion of the article you just
posted on Day To Day Market, on my thread. It's very important that we
in the (G) have a strong feeling towards the week after this one. My
overwhelming desire to jump back in on June 1st (in the G since the 19th)
should not and must not override what the Market has to say over the
next (4) four trading days. After the drop last week and a possible drop
this week, maybe (1/2) half in would be reasonable. But a rebound in
the first few days, might put me on hold a wee bit longer. As I always
elude to, it's all about my gut. Right now, my gut is full of questions that
have been left unanswered. Hopefully, I'll have a better feel come June.


Tuesday: the Commerce Department releases its April data on new home
sales, it's expected to show a decline from March sales, according to the
economists. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index for May
is anticipated to edge lower, too.

Wednesday: The Commerce Department reports on Orders for Durable
Goods, which are essentially big-ticket items ranging from Cars, Computers
to Refrigerators. April's Durable Goods Orders are expected to have dipped
by 1.1% percent after rising by 0.1% percent in March.

Friday: On top of data from Chicago Purchasing Managers(manufacturing)
and from the University of Michigan (consumer sentiment), The Commerce
Department will report on Personal Spending. Economists predict spending
rose 0.2% percent in April, compared with a 0.4% increase in March.
That report will include the (Personal Consumption Expenditures Deflator),
which is a measure of inflation at the personal level. Economists, expect
that it was steady in April at an annual rate of 2.2% percent.

Earnings Reports:
Borders Group Inc
Costco wholesale Corp
Dell Inc
Sears Holdings Corp
Tiffany & Co.

YOU CAN READ THE ARTICLE IN ITS ENTIRETY AT THE FOLLOWING LINK:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080525/wall_street_week_ahead.html
 
I always look for his economic calendar. What's not been easy to find is help in determining what the reports are going to be. First time I saw this author and it will be interesting to see how accurate. If it is accurate how ill the markets react? Any edge is a good edge..

Thanks,

John
 
What would the $6 Million Man cost today?
1974 cost: $6 million
2008 inflation adj. cost: $26 million
Actual 2008 cost: Up to $100 million

We can rebuild him, but for how much? Back in 1974, $6 million was
enough to buy crashed-astronaut Steve Austin a new arm, an eye,
and a pair of legs with super strength and vision.

Today, we might call him the Twenty-Six Million Dollar Man. That's
the value of $6 million in 1974 dollars when adjusted for inflation
using tools from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Today, my son found it hard to believe that in 1987, the wife and I spent
$75.00 on a video game (new release) Super Mario Bros.3 ,,, He thought
that (back then) everything was so much cheaper then it is today. Being
the Numeric Fool that I Am, I jumped on the web and did a little research.
It didn't take me long to find in Wikapedia that, the average cost of a
NES Video Game in 1984 was approximately $35.00 and if you make the
adjustment for inflation, that was like paying approximately $77.00 today.

Needless to say, this was a great lesson to be learned and my son looks
at the power of future dollars a little differently. While this was a minor
example of life, now lets add this little tidbit to their thoughts about their
retirement accounts. To young men like my son, numbers appear larger
then they'll be in the future. If I told my son that he'd have 1/2 a million
dollars in his retirement account, he'd break out the champagne with the
thought of being secure in his later years. NOT SO FAST YOUNG BUCK !

The "Cost of Living" and "Inflation" will make that $500,000 seem like a
meager $200,000 when it comes time to enjoy their retirement. Figures
are rough estimates, but the point is crystal clear. Food for thought my
young friends, you need more then you think if you haven't taken these
facts into account. There are many sites that will calculate your balances
for you, but if they don't include a inflationary calculation, don't even
bother. There are plenty of sites that do.
 
There are several well respected members taking the plunge into the
stock funds today. I wish them nothing but gains in their endevors.

Currently, the (C) and (S) seems to have no direction in todays trading.
However, there is a push to the upside as I type this entry. Maybe the
resistance seen earlier is fading. Maybe its up from here. But volume
looks to be low (expected) and I'm not convinced the day will end this
way.

I'm in the (G) until my handcuffs are removed on June 1st. The (I)
is currently down -.76% today. With a deficit of only +.01,,, I expect
the Fund Managers to keep the (I) Fund returns close to the EFA
returns (as they've been doing sucessfully for the last two weeks).

(C) is -5.50% YTD,,, (S) is -3.25% YTD,,, (I) is -2.46% YTD.

The (G) Penny is expected today !!!!!! Haaa laaaa luuuu Yaaaa !!!!
 
squalebear said:
There are several well respected members taking the plunge into the stock funds today.

Seasonality is the name of the game - but this has been an unusual year - so safety stills seems like a good place to be.

(C) is -5.50% YTD,,, (S) is -3.25% YTD,,, (I) is -2.46% YTD.

The (G) Penny is expected today !!!!!! Haaa laaaa luuuu Yaaaa !!!!
Click to expand...

The saying "Once bitten twice shy" is still lingering - as I took my biggest hit in years in the last quarter of 07 - mainly counting on "seasonality" to come through.

If things do go down - it will feel wonderful being in G.
 
From a one cent deficit to a highend nineteen cent deficit. There's always
a chance of a little more deficit being added (rarely higher than -.23) but
it is where you want it, if you wanted to find a good entry point into the
(I) Fund. Anyone who made a IFT yesterday before noon, into the (I) hit
the deficit perfectly. This position does not guarantee a gain, but an
explanation is warranted. As a result of this deficit, I've come to expect;

Greater gains during a Up Day.
Minor gains during a Flat Day.
Lower loses during a Down Day.

On average, a highend deficit tends to get cut within 1 or 2 days, but can
struggle to get down to its single digit goal. Just as this deficit shot up in
one day, it can do the same (rare) going down. What does this mean? It
means that the Fund Managers will need to give you MORE tsp cents in
addition to the normal (I) Fund return (gain or lose). My guess would be
that given the current European/Asian Markets at this time, the deficit
could be reduced. This still adds additional tsp cents to a portfolio. During
the liquidity, credit and limits crunch, the Fund Mgrs. opted to wait for
down days to pay down the deficit. I'm hoping that this practice is a thing
of the past and everyone in the (I) Fund reaps the benefit of a great big
rebound day. Should that happen and the deficit gets cut, there could be
some very happy members come the COB today.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents

(5/26/08) Memorial Day Holiday
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents :blink:
(5/28/08)
(5/29/08)
(5/30/08)

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru -.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher) :blink:
 
Caution: the "Great Annuity Rip-Off" Thread has been identified as an
attempt to deceive the TSPTalk membership and to sell products. For
details, simply google the name "Gary Spicuzza" and do some reading.
:mad:
 
squalebear said:
Caution: the "Great Annuity Rip-Off" Thread has been identified as an
attempt to deceive the TSPTalk membership and to sell products. For
details, simply google the name "Gary Spicuzza" and do some reading.
:mad:
Click to expand...
He needs to pay Tom for his free "ad.";)
 
squalebear said:
From a one cent deficit to a highend nineteen cent deficit. There's always
a chance of a little more deficit being added (rarely higher than -.23) but
it is where you want it, if you wanted to find a good entry point into the
(I) Fund. Anyone who made a IFT yesterday before noon, into the (I) hit
the deficit perfectly. This position does not guarantee a gain, but an
explanation is warranted. As a result of this deficit, I've come to expect;

Greater gains during a Up Day.
Minor gains during a Flat Day.
Lower loses during a Down Day.

On average, a highend deficit tends to get cut within 1 or 2 days, but can
struggle to get down to its single digit goal. Just as this deficit shot up in
one day, it can do the same (rare) going down. What does this mean? It
means that the Fund Managers will need to give you MORE tsp cents in
addition to the normal (I) Fund return (gain or lose). My guess would be
that given the current European/Asian Markets at this time, the deficit
could be reduced. This still adds additional tsp cents to a portfolio. During
the liquidity, credit and limits crunch, the Fund Mgrs. opted to wait for
down days to pay down the deficit. I'm hoping that this practice is a thing
of the past and everyone in the (I) Fund reaps the benefit of a great big
rebound day. Should that happen and the deficit gets cut, there could be
some very happy members come the COB today.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents

(5/26/08) Memorial Day Holiday
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents :blink:
(5/28/08)
(5/29/08)
(5/30/08)

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru -.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher) :blink:
Click to expand...
I'm still confused with the FV and the deficit business. Yesterday was an UP day, but it ended up being DOWN after the FV. So there were not greater gains on an up day.:confused:
 
luv2read said:
I'm still confused with the FV and the deficit business. Yesterday was an UP day, but it ended up being DOWN after the FV. So there were not greater gains on an up day.
Click to expand...

L2R
#1- Oooops, Bribe not Bride, wedding is still on the brain, I guess.

"I'm still confused with the FV and the deficit"
My tracking has nothing to do with FV. Before I even heard about FV,
I was tracking the YTD differences between the (I) Fund and EFA. The
goal for both are to reflect the MSCI EAFE INDEX by the end of the year.
By simply changing the %'s into TSP Cents, it allowed me to see if one
or the other was "overpaid" or "underpaid" in their returns on a daily basis.
I didn't use the MSCI INDEX because I couldn't track the Index during
Trading Hours. So I used the ETF (called EFA) for my purposes. The
accumulative YTD % differences (translated into tsp cents) is what
determines how many tsp cents the (I) Fund is over or under paid.

Since I haven't found a way (if there is one) to incorporate FV into my
tracking, FV is a major reason for the Deficits/Overpayments. But I can
not seperate the two. Corvette calls the odd differences as "Mystery"
Money. The Fund Manager decisions to add or subtract certain amounts
are "unknown" to the average TSP investor. But one thing has held true
since I started tracking this thing. By years end, funds that are developed
to reflect the results of the MSCI EAFE INDEX, must do just that. The key
I made at the bottom of my tracking posts reflects the trends that have
been associated to my studies.

This thing I use does not foresee the future, nor does it accurately tell
me what the Fund Managers will do on any given day. It allows me to add
weight to any decision about going into the (I) Fund. I'm sure that we
would rather go in when there's a large deficit (owed tsp cents). I'm also
sure that I'd put less in when an overpayment is present (giveback cents).
 
Anyone investing in the (I) Fund today saw a greater gain then the EFA.
They saw +.515% greater gain to be exact. Since the accumulative YTD
% difference was at -.80% yesterday,,, today drove the deficit down to
a YTD figure of -.29%. Important; For the entire year of 2008, the EFA
YTD return is only -.29% different then the (I) Fund. Now translate that
into tsp cents by multiplying -.29% of the (I)'s closing price and you get
-.07 tsp cents. The results fall into the single digit range (goal met)

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents
(5/21/08) - .214% -0.04 tsp cents
(5/22/08) - .125% -0.07 tsp cents
(5/23/08) + .233% -0.01 tsp cents

(5/26/08) Memorial Day Holiday
(5/27/08) - .757% -0.19 tsp cents
(5/28/08) + .515% -0.07 tsp cents :)
(5/29/08)
(5/30/08)

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met) :)
-.10 thru -.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)
 
squalebear said:
Anyone investing in the (I) Fund today saw a greater gain then the EFA.
Click to expand...
SB, thanks much for your excellent information. Your update of this very early AM gave me the information I was looking for to harvest more than expectations from the I Fund and then trim down my exposure at COB today. Way cool!

Lady
 
"Yesterday was an UP day, but it ended up being DOWN after the FV. So there were not
greater gains on an up day."

L2R, although Tuesday was a positive day in the USM (including the C&S),
the (I) Fund closed down -.95% and the EFA closed down -.20% so there
was no up day within the Fund that I track. This is strictly concerning the
(I) Fund and it's relative, the EFA. Now I'm a little confused. I want to
help understand and even evaluate my results. Lets keep this discussion
going until all things are clear.

One last thing, I will try to better document the following;
Greater Gains/Lower Loses in a Up/Down Day
Lower Gains/Greater Loses in a Up/Down Day
;)
 
XL-entLady said:
SB, thanks much for your excellent information. Your update of this very early AM gave me the information I was looking for to harvest more than expectations from the I Fund and then trim down my exposure at COB today. Way cool! Lady
Click to expand...

I did all that ? Naaaaaaaah ! YOU did all that ! YOU made the choice !
Luckly, theFund Managers didn't add to the deficit. Today, they gave us
back .50% (12 tsp cents) more then the EFA results had today. (-.01%)
today. If they added to the deficit by giving the (I) Fund a lose of a
penny (-.01), we'd still be waiting for the IOU of .20 tsp cents.

So my dear, the credit goes to timing, luck and risk. I'm simply your tool !:nuts:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - FOMC Day
Replies
0
Views
2K
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Tariff talk ruins another rally on Friday
Replies
0
Views
175
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls are back
Replies
0
Views
169
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Stocks rally but the Dow is in an 8-day losing streak?
Replies
1
Views
214
WorkFE
WorkFE
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - Something big was brewing, all right
Replies
1
Views
289
robo
robo
Back
Top