Squalebear's Account Talk

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squalebear said:
Squalebear Takes A Break ! :)
April 24, 2009 7:02pm

From time to time, we all go through it. Its the feeling of having such an
enormous weight on your shoulders, too much on your plate, call it what
you will. Its hitting me hard and some of you know, its not the first time
this has happend to me. With that said, I'm going to be stepping away
from my daily participation for a while. (heck, I don't know if I can) But
I must try. I'm not going far, but I'm taking a step back. Its necessary. ;)
Click to expand...
Sometimes we all need to back off a little and catch up. Lately the Job has been interfering with my participation and it's hard to keep up. Might be you took on too much of a load and need to lighten up a little? Have a good one, spring is a great time of the year. We will all be waiting for your return. ;)
Norman
 
SB my Jedi master, there is a slight sadness in the Force. I know when you return all will be right and the Force will be strong again. The Dark Side will not win.
 
Dollar-cost averaging can get you back into stocks even if you don't trust the rally

After a month like April it's tempting to wear a cap backwards and wave a rally rag for stocks -- but we've seen this game before. Stocks have a long way to go to recover from their bear-market mauling, and for many investors, a trust has been broken. Many people simply don't believe the markets' spring upswing is for real. "If you feel uneasy about this rally, there are good reasons," said Hugh Johnson, chairman of investment firm Johnson Illington Advisors. "It's in theory signaling better times ahead for the economy and earnings, and yet it's difficult to make that case."

From bear to bull
All anyone really knows about the market is that if this rally has roots, it won't flash an all-clear sign. Stocks rebound quickly: In the first 12 months of a new bull market, the S&P 500 has averaged a 46% gain; the benchmark surged 29% through April 30 from its March 9 bottom. You obviously don't want to miss out on future gains, but how can you reengage with the market when you're skeptical? One of the best ways is through dollar-cost averaging -- a strategy that was left for dead as markets took a collective dive. Dollar-cost averaging demands disciplined buying. You set aside a certain amount of money and invest over a set period -- such as monthly or quarterly -- regardless of price. Dollar-cost averaging is especially suited to trading-oriented markets that are searching for direction, offering you a chance to buy at cheaper valuations and lower an investment's cost basis. And because the buying is spread over time, dollar-cost averaging also mutes portfolio volatility and gives you a smoother ride.

"We've been gradually entering the market," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at money manager Hinsdale Associates. "This is more of a trading environment. Investors have to change their mental attitude. You still want to buy good companies, but you want to be patient. Pick your price and areas you're comfortable with and start to accumulate."

"If history is any guide, you would want to rotate into small-caps over large-caps, cyclical sectors over defensive sectors, and if you really wanted to be nimble, industries that have lost the most in the trailing 12 months," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's. "Companies that were priced to go out of business but did not will probably lead the way."

But Stovall says it's also likely that the S&P 500 could suffer a 10%-plus correction from here before marching higher again. "The bear market did bottom on March 9, and we have gone through a fairly traditional rally off that low," Stovall said. "But chances are good that we will go through some digestion of the gains. You might want to hold off until the S&P goes to the low 800's or so and then dollar-cost average in."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={85C4C620-F44B-41BF-AB21-3168873A92E2}
 
The top 50 most heavily shorted stocks were up 28% in the month, outperforming the 9.4% gain for the S&P 500-stock index. Usually the most heavily shorted stocks underperform the broader market - but we are hardly in normal times.
 
Finally all in I see - may profitability reside in the ride ahead. This week could be the week that was. What happens if NFP comes in under 600,000? You'll be right there to find out.
 
XL-entLady said:
Good to see you back today, my friend! Hope things are going okay for you!
:) Lady
Click to expand...

I'm ok and I hope to add my 2 cents in when possible. The last few posts
I made, circled around the topic of DCA'ing. I thought a few would find
them interesting to read.;)

Birchtree said:
Finally all in I see - may profitability reside in the
ride ahead. This week could be the week that was. What happens if NFP
comes in under 600,000? You'll be right there to find out.
Click to expand...

Birch, April showed that I just don't have the stomach nor intestinal
fortitude that it takes after the beating of 2008. My +2.38% pailed
in comparison to the Risk Funds last month. I can only hope that we
don't see a normal correction for a while longer. Give me +5% more !
Is that too much to ask for ! Put the word in for me will ya ! ;)

Oh yes, Better then expected NFP would fit in nicely !
 
Hi Squale! Good to see you. I'm playing in the ETF/single stock sandbox at the moment with limited funds-not hurting too bad, at least just about breaking even as I learn-it's different than TSP, that's for sure.
I'll rejoin the top 25 gang when I get the signals I'm looking for. I was down around 70 at one point last year, and made a comeback then, think I can do it again this year too. The highpoint was being #7 in the tracker earlier of course with the lilypad gang, already made my mark for the year. ;)
 
alevin said:
Hi Squale! Good to see you. I'm playing in the ETF/single stock sandbox at the moment with limited funds-not hurting too bad, at least just about breaking even as I learn-it's different than TSP, that's for sure.
I'll rejoin the top 25 gang when I get the signals I'm looking for. I was down around 70 at one point last year, and made a comeback then, think I can do it again this year too. The highpoint was being #7 in the tracker earlier of course with the lilypad gang, already made my mark for the year. ;)
Click to expand...

No doubt "different then the TSP". It appears that your doing it right
through patience and caution, until that comfort zone expands. Great
to hear from you Ale ! :)
 
That Wasn't No BEAR In The China Shop ! That was a
Full Fledged BULL ! If My Estimates Are Correct, The
(C) Fund Went Positive YTD For The First Time Since
Jan 8TH, 2009 :) And The (I) Fund Continues To Lag
Behind, But Not By Much. Approximately -2.08% YTD.
The (S) Fund Is Up YTD By About +7.18%. We might
Even See The (F) Raise A Little Today. The Sidelined
Investors Must Be Worried That Their Going To Miss
The Boat And The Shorts Must Be Soiling Themselves
About Now. The S&P Hit 907.24, Another Day Up Will
Hopefully Lock In That 900.00 Psychological Threshold
And Give Us All More Reason To Celebrate In The Days
To Come ! ;)
 
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