Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

:blink: HOW LOW WILL IT GO ? :worried:​

 

[Guest2]

Friday - February 27, 2009

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents
(02/05/09) -0.1558 tsp cents
(02/06/09) -0.0301 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents
(02/27/09) -0.1760 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Friday - February 27, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -18.62%.....C=...-18.15%...-7.8399% (my figures)
DWC.= -16.77%.....S=...-17.57%..
EAFE.= -18.59%.....I=...-20.94%..
.............................F=...-01.24%..
.............................G=...+00.39%.

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=-11.29%......C=...-10.64%...-1.0566%(my figures) :nuts:
DWC.=-10.70%......S=...-10.22%..
EAFE.=-08.41%......I=...-10.23%..
.............................F=...-00.39%..
.............................G=...+00.21%.

 

[Guest2]

To Me, The Chart Holds More Downside With A Few "Fool Ya" Up Days Thrown In. :worried:


View attachment 5916


600's in the S&P looks rather obvious from here. But are we really on our way to 500's
It would take something special to stop or slow down the current momentum. Remember
when the saying "the Trend is your friend". Well, if that still holds true, our friend is saying
"STAY OUT" ! :blink: I think a replica of January 20th to present might be forming. Then one
more leg down.

 

[felixthecat]

If you look at the 1929-1932 Dow chart. You will see that if we blindly assume a depression in the making, then based on a simlar timeline, we are actually going to correct about 2-3 percent more, then we are going to have a Bear Market rally of about 13 percent. After that, you don't want to go anywhere near the markets until the Grim Reaper has finished taking out all the wealth.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart7:symbol=^dji;range=19281001,19400701;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

We are definitely on on a path of destruction of wealth. Forget about being scared now, this is life/financial preservation. Until the markets decisively move off the 1929-1932 timeline, I'm going to assume the worst and look be ready to catch this last big rally. I fear that large market plunges are now coming. At some point we will move off this depression timeline, however, I believe we will have fallen 60-70 percent. These plunges will be spread out but a major one is coming after this upcoming rally.

I hope I'm wrong, but Obama and House/Senate appear to be trying to save a drowning automobile/banking/Housing markets that frankly are caving in.

Now, have a good weekend and remember, worry about the things in your control and forget about the rest.

This is mostly conjecture and is really only dependent on similar path of destruction.

 

[Guest2]

If you look at the 1929-1932 Dow chart. You will see that if we blindly assume a depression in the making, then based on a simlar timeline, we are actually going to correct about 2-3 percent more, then we are going to have a Bear Market rally of about 13 percent. After that, you don't want to go anywhere near the markets until the Grim Reaper has finished taking out all the wealth.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart7:symbol=^dji;range=19281001,19400701;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

We are definitely on on a path of destruction of wealth. Forget about being scared now, this is life/financial preservation. Until the markets decisively move off the 1929-1932 timeline, I'm going to assume the worst and look be ready to catch this last big rally. I fear that large market plunges are now coming. At some point we will move off this depression timeline, however, I believe we will have fallen 60-70 percent. These plunges will be spread out but a major one is coming after this upcoming rally.

I hope I'm wrong, but Obama and House/Senate appear to be trying to save a drowning automobile/banking/Housing markets that frankly are caving in.

Now, have a good weekend and remember, worry about the things in your control and forget about the rest.

This is mostly conjecture and is really only dependent on similar path of destruction.

Thanks FTC,

I hope your right about only being -2% to -3% away from the begining of
our next Bull Market. I just don't see the catalyst that would break the Bears
back and turn this around. Even looking ahead 6-9 months as the market does.
We have quite a bit of bad news and a tiny bit a stablization to go through before
reaching that point. (JMHO).

HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND !!!!!!!

 

[Guest2]

2010 Federal Pay Raise 2%, Obama Proposes
February 27, 2009

In his budget proposal released yesterday, President Obama offered only a 2 percent increase in the 2010 federal pay raise for active employees -- a significant cut from last year's 3.9 percent adjustment, and 3.5 percent the year prior.

Obama proposed a 2010 pay raise for the uniformed military of 2.9 percent. "As families are tightening their belts in this economic crisis across the country, the president ordered a freeze of White House senior staff pay," the budget states. "Federal employees also will be asked to do their part." The budget also says that the proposal puts "federal pay and benefit practices more in line with the private sector."Some unions representing federal employees disagree with the proposal. "We understand that these are tough times, but we are very concerned about breaking the historic linkage of civilian and military pay parity," said President Colleen M. Kelley of the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU). "We want to find out why these pay raise numbers came out the way they did," the NTEU leader further stated, "and what went into the analysis regarding pay parity. We also want to know what other proposals the administration will be pursuing this year that will affect federal workers." Kelley added that military and federal civilian employees work side by side in support of our nation's security. other unions have shown more acceptance to Obama's proposed 2010 federal pay raise.
"AFGE is not happy with less than a full comparability pay raise but understand it given the severity of our nation's economic situation, including the crisis for public workers at the state and local level," said American Federation of Government Employees National President John Gage. "We understand that only modest steps can be taken this year to close the remaining pay gap between the federal and non-federal salaries." Historically, Congressional actions during the annual federal pay raise process bolster the figure that is originally proposed by a president. Actual pay raise figures -- with their locality adjustments -- are not usually issued until December of each year.

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/344.cfm

 

[CountryBoy]

2010 Federal Pay Raise 2%, Obama Proposes
February 27, 2009

In his budget proposal released yesterday, President Obama offered only a 2 percent increase in the 2010 federal pay raise for active employees -- a significant cut from last year's 3.9 percent adjustment, and 3.5 percent the year prior.

Obama proposed a 2010 pay raise for the uniformed military of 2.9 percent. "As families are tightening their belts in this economic crisis across the country, the president ordered a freeze of White House senior staff pay," the budget states. "Federal employees also will be asked to do their part." The budget also says that the proposal puts "federal pay and benefit practices more in line with the private sector."Some unions representing federal employees disagree with the proposal. "We understand that these are tough times, but we are very concerned about breaking the historic linkage of civilian and military pay parity," said President Colleen M. Kelley of the National Treasury Employees Union (NTEU). "We want to find out why these pay raise numbers came out the way they did," the NTEU leader further stated, "and what went into the analysis regarding pay parity. We also want to know what other proposals the administration will be pursuing this year that will affect federal workers." Kelley added that military and federal civilian employees work side by side in support of our nation's security. other unions have shown more acceptance to Obama's proposed 2010 federal pay raise.
"AFGE is not happy with less than a full comparability pay raise but understand it given the severity of our nation's economic situation, including the crisis for public workers at the state and local level," said American Federation of Government Employees National President John Gage. "We understand that only modest steps can be taken this year to close the remaining pay gap between the federal and non-federal salaries." Historically, Congressional actions during the annual federal pay raise process bolster the figure that is originally proposed by a president. Actual pay raise figures -- with their locality adjustments -- are not usually issued until December of each year.

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/344.cfm

That's 2% more than I expected this year with the economy as bad as it is and I really expect it to get worse. As for the military pay, I've always thought it was wrong that they got paid less, especially active military, yeah I know they get base perks and stuff like that, but I guess it's just me, that anyone that would willing lay their life on the line for this country could get a few tenths more of a percent in raise over most of us cush civilian jobs.

JMHO,
CB

 

[Rod]

Only a 2.9% for us AD military, whereas 2009 gave us a 3.9%???

The way he mentioned giving "raises for the military" in his congressional address the other night made it sound as if we were receiving a larger raise than 2009's. And I quote,

To relieve the strain on our forces, my budget increases the number of our soldiers and Marines. And to keep our sacred trust with those who serve, we will raise their pay and give our veterans the expanded health care and benefits that they have earned.

He failed to add, "But your pay raise will be less than last year's."

Such deception.

Hopefully Congress will ignore him and give all of us a larger raise!

 

[justbizness45]

I'd take no raise if they would cut the budget in all areas to something the country can fund. It would be better overall IMO.

 

[nnuut]

The ony thing I can say is:
I THOUGHT THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A STIMULUS PLAN?
Just what are they stimulating? They surely don't know where the "G"ood spot is.
Stimulate SMALL BUSINESS, BIG BUSINESS with tax cuts would be a good start!

 

[Boghie]

My Luck...

is that that 2% will bump me into a higher tax bracket or the AMT

Not really... Not too close to either...

However, what happens if/when the gubmint bakes in our massive 2% cost of living - and the cost of living goes up by 9% because of inflation???

Unlike the private sector, we cannot just demand a raise - eh:nuts:

My personal guess is that we will be in a period of deflation (which is why a 2% inflation adjustment is just silly right now), but will get an unhealthy dose of inflation in FY2010. Our massive 2% salary boost is for FY2010.

Best bet is to be out of debt before then

 

[CountryBoy]

I'd take no raise if they would cut the budget in all areas to something the country can fund. It would be better overall IMO.

JB54,

I agree with ya 100%.

CB

 

[Boghie]

Give Me No Raise - Just Get the Budget in Order

I'd take no raise if they would cut the budget in all areas to something the country can fund. It would be better overall IMO.

Good point JB.

I'm with you...

 

[Rod]

I'd take no raise if they would cut the budget in all areas to something the country can fund. It would be better overall IMO.

Screw that. They (The System) screwed up. I want my money!

 

[WorkFE]

Unfortunately poloticians don't troll this MB for advice. And they would never approve of that anyway because then they would have to do the prudent thing to their own pay. There is where I like to see a pay as you go. Actually do something for your paycheck. (What a novel idea):laugh:

 

[Boghie]

A New Thought as I Shrug

Unfortunately poloticians don't troll this MB for advice. And they would never approve of that anyway because then they would have to do the prudent thing to their own pay. There is where I like to see a pay as you go. Actually do something for your paycheck. (What a novel idea):laugh:

JB was onto something...

Here is something else...

Maybe we can push through an amendment that would cut CongressCritter and Administration pay by $1,000 for every $10 Billion the budget is out of whack. The worse they would have fared under BusHitler was a $42,000 cut in pay – and just $14,000 in FY2007. Under the enlightened one, a mere $175,000 cut in pay next fiscal year – projected Anyone want to project on reality

I would even go so far as to provide evil corporate investment banker style bonuses if they come in over budget. However, I would have to put my foot down and not permit them to include Social Security assets as general day-to-day revenue toward those bonus checks.

Then again, this is the first FY that Social Security goes into the red.

Deficits as far as the eye can see
with a big spender in power

 

[Guest2]

Thanks for participating everyone. The Government (as I know it) will ask
everyone to do more with less. I'd take a wage freeze for "1 Year" if it
meant that the overcrowded conditions within our Federal Prison System
would be fixed by hiring more officers and increasing the staff / inmate
ratio. But that won't happen. They will fix up old Prisons. Build new ones
and understaff them. In other words, I'm hoping that Congress and the
Senate ignores the Presidents 2% increase and allows every Federal
Employee a raise of 3% or more. Let them use the Pork to save the money
needed. After all, even inmates have the choice over Pork or No Pork. We
have been at greater risk (in Prison) because of their ignorance and refusal
to be fiscally responsible. Yes my friends, even in your part of the Gov't,
I'm sure you've been asked to do MORE with LESS for years. Working in
the environment that I work at, its not a caseload issue, its a safety issue.

Bottom Line: Every Current and Retired Federal Employee still can't hold
a candle to the salaries and benefits within the Private Sector. If we end
up giving an inch, they will take a mile. Just Say No to anything under 3%

 

[Guest2]

100,000 views !
and its all because of you !


Thank You All !​

 

[Guest2]

Federal Retirees and That 2010 COLA Increase


How much of a bump in annuity payments will federal retirees get next January? In January 2009, some federal retirees received more of an increase with their COLA adjustment than active federal employees received with their pay raise. The COLA increase for federal retirees was 5.8% back in January. That was the largest amount in 25 years. A chart within that article shows the increases for retirees over the past few years. Active federal employees, on the other hand, did not get a 5.8% increase.

On average, federal employees received a pay raise of 3.9% in January although those in the Washington, DC area received a 4.78% increase which was the highest increase in the country for the federal GS workforce. Some federal retirees are already looking forward to their next increase in January. Comments or emails on this subject are along this line: "Any information on the 2010 COLA increase for retired federal employees? Most of the 2009 increase was taken up by the increase in health benefits costs so I am hoping we will actually get a bump up in 2010."

Needless to say, this is not a normal year. We are actually experiencing a period of deflation as companies cut jobs, consumers cut spending, and the economy shrinks. At the same time, the federal government is about to go on an unprecedented borrowing spree and the American Secretary of State is traveling overseas telling the Chinese government, among others, why they should invest in U.S. Treasury securities. So, if the 2010 COLA payment were to be determined today, there would not be any increase. The consumer price index used to determine the COLA payment is a negative figure of -4.5%. That does not mean that any federal retirees will see a 4.5% decrease in the monthly annuity payment. It does mean that federal retirees may not get an increase next year.

On the other hand, with the spending about to start from the stimulus bill, there is considerable speculation that we may start seeing a resurgence of inflation--perhaps a lot of inflation--although it will take awhile for that to seep through the economy. The COLA figure has been -5% in December so there was a whiff of inflation that has already entered into the COLA calculation. (The COLA figures are from the National Active and Retired Federal Employees Association website.)

Moreover, going back to 1975, there has never been a year in which there was not a cost of living adjustment for Social Security payments due to deflation (or a lack of inflation). The highest increase in a year was 1980 when it hit 14.3%. It has also been as low as 1.3% (in 1998 and 1986). (The annual COLA payment for retired federal employees is now pegged to the same consumer price index as for Social Security payments.)

There is even concern about an economic period of stagflation. The term is a combination of inflation and economic stagnation--a deadly combination that occurred in the United States in the 1970's. In that era, our inflation rate peaked at 13.3%. Economic growth was slow and actually declined in 1974 and 1975. The economy is going to continue to be volatile. In all likelihood, inflation will start moving up, at least moderately, later this year. But what we do know is that there will have to be a significant increase in inflation over the next several months for federal retirees go receive a COLA bump next January.

http://www.fedsmith.com/article/1881/