Squalebear's Account Talk

As hard as that will be,,,, this pony is broke and broken.

Only the shell is cracked - but the person and what really counts is very much alive and doing wonderful.

I'll find something else to give her belly laughs (just like the one I got reading your post). :)

That little girl will pick up on your charm, your delightful disposition, and sense and acknowledge all that wonderful love and life streaming out of your body.

She will absolutely cherish every opportunity to be with you and always remember you in the highest regards. Don't worry about anything Squalebear - just be you - BE REAL and that's it. ;)
 
that little girl will pick up on your charm, your delightful disposition, and sense and acknowledge all that wonderful love and life streaming out of your body.

she will absolutely cherish every opportunity to be with you and always remember you in the highest regards. Don't worry about anything squalebear - just be you - be real and that's it. ;)

Words To Live by !
 
Ok, I've been getting better at being more right then wrong. Now, I sit
here second guessing myself. I just saw on CNBC a Perma-Bear call for
the yearly lows coming in a few days. Friday scares the Hell Out Of Me
and Long Term Investment (if he's right) would be the right call. I have
not had the opportunity to study the technicals as I've wanted to. So
my questions appear to be those of a rookie;

Is anyone waiting until after Friday to invest?
Does anyone have a contrarian view as to where we're at in the market?
What are the Charts telling us ?
Is this a temporary bounce as I posted earlier?
Will Bernake raise the market?
Will Timothy bring it down in the afternoon?

HELP ! :confused:
 
Sorry SB, I know my charts are backward-looking, but they've kept me safe thus far this year. I'm seeing nothing good on daily or weekly charts to give me hope for anything more than a day or 2, and not really that. SPX daily gap down that needs to be closed is the only thing I see, plus the longterm daily SPX trailing Ichimoku line is flat this morning-suggesting support at 700, but the dailies are not near as predictive as the weeklies, which are giving no hope in my mind. Not today. Gaps down do NOT have to fill in any reasonable length of time. I've spotted a few on the charts that remain unfilled from quite awhile back. But I'm not a bouncy-1 to 2 day risktaker these days either, I got burned on that tactic last June-July and conditions haven't changed for the better. We can only make decisions on what we see in a given day, so don't beat yourself up too bad if you go in and the trade goes against you. I believe myself in cutting losses quickly, which saved me from negative return last year. JMO.
 
Sorry SB, I know my charts are backward-looking, but they've kept me safe thus far this year. I'm seeing nothing good on daily or weekly charts to give me hope for anything more than a day or 2, and not really that. SPX daily gap down that needs to be closed is the only thing I see, plus the longterm daily SPX trailing Ichimoku line is flat this morning-suggesting support at 700, but the dailies are not near as predictive as the weeklies, which are giving no hope in my mind. Not today. Gaps down do NOT have to fill in any reasonable length of time. I've spotted a few on the charts that remain unfilled from quite awhile back. But I'm not a bouncy-1 to 2 day risktaker these days either, I got burned on that tactic last June-July and conditions haven't changed for the better. We can only make decisions on what we see in a given day, so don't beat yourself up too bad if you go in and the trade goes against you. I believe myself in cutting losses quickly, which saved me from negative return last year. JMO.

Eliquent as always ! Great observations and opinions !
Thanks for helping me out with my homework ! :)
 
After seeing the S&P500 trading under 700, I stopped second guessing
myself. The Market may very well end today in positive territory and I'm
leaning towards a mixed closed, with the (S) taking the lead in losses.
SO, I'm holding off another day without a IFT into risk. No matter what
the Perma-Bears called (earlier post),,,, I believe this is not over and
true capitulation has not been seen yet. ;)

KEEPING MY POWDER DRY AND BY MY SIDE FOR THE NEXT TEA PARTY ! :nuts:
 
I'm paralyzed with fear. I cannot make the move even though I want too. I may get courage in the next 2 minutes to go for a one day rally. However...tomorrow's ADP report has me shaking somewhat awful. :(
 
I'm paralyzed with fear. I cannot make the move even though I want too. I may get courage in the next 2 minutes to go for a one day rally. However...tomorrow's ADP report has me shaking somewhat awful. :(

You might see a better then expected ADP Report tomorrow. But there's
no guarantee the market will believe it for a second (in either direction).
Your not alone in the paralysis your experiencing. With the S&P closing
under the pivitol 700 level, I'm guessing that we won't see that 20% jump
that many have spoke about today. I'm still thinking that true capitulation
will mean a unheard of and devistating drop (intraday) with a positive
close. That would be followed by a sprint upward the following next few
days. I think were getting close, but the knife is falling and I already have
a flesh wound. I might put my toe in the water tomorrow, while keeping
most of my powder dry. But only at levels that I feel confortable with,
should I be wrong. If the bottom falls out before Noon, I just might
increase my stake. (Ribeye Please). A true bottom will not be certain in
any case. The news is bad or worse and a catalyst is hard to predict.
There's no shame in missing the first 5% of any boost, so caution is the
wiser choice at this juncture. (IMHO). :embarrest:
 
Tuesday - March 03, 2009
The Deficit is in the Black and that's the goal of the Fund Managers.
The EAFE was down -1.86% and the (I) Fund was only down -0.86%
today. Paying off the Deficit on a down day is consistant with recent
Fund Manager decisions. Adding to the Deficit on up days as well.
So what does that mean to the (I) Funders. It means that the TSP
(I) Fund needs to go up for several days, while the Deficit sits in the
Red Zone from the start, in order to break this pattern. For now, the
Black Zone could mean a underperformance against the EAFE. But
remember, I'll take a +5% while the EAFE is up +8% any day ! ;)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents
(02/05/09) -0.1558 tsp cents
(02/06/09) -0.0301 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents
(02/27/09) -0.1760 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/02/09) -0.1922 tsp cents
(03/03/09) -0.0922 tsp cents :mad:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met) :mad:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Tuesday - March 03, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -22.91%.....C=...-22.47%...-7.8186% (my figures) :nuts:
DWC.= -22.34%.....S=...-23.12%..
EAFE= -24.80%......I=...-25.68%..
.............................F=...-00.98%..
.............................G=...+00.42%.

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=-05.30%......C=...-05.30%...+0.0227%(my figures) :nuts:
DWC.=-06.75%......S=...-06.80%..
EAFE=-06.83%.......I=...-06.03%..
.............................F=...+00.27%..
.............................G=...+00.02%.

ON A YTD BASIS,,, THE DEFICIT LOOK QUITE OBVIOUS BETWEEN THE
(I) FUND AND THE EAFE INDEX RETURNS.

ON A MTD BASIS,,, THERE'S AN OVERPAYMENT OF +0.80% AND THIS
IS SOMETHING I'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON. INTERESTING ! ;)
 
You might see a better then expected ADP Report tomorrow. But there's
no guarantee the market will believe it for a second (in either direction).
Your not alone in the paralysis your experiencing. With the S&P closing
under the pivitol 700 level, I'm guessing that we won't see that 20% jump
that many have spoke about today. I'm still thinking that true capitulation
will mean a unheard of and devistating drop (intraday) with a positive
close. That would be followed by a sprint upward the following next few
days. I think were getting close, but the knife is falling and I already have
a flesh wound. I might put my toe in the water tomorrow, while keeping
most of my powder dry. But only at levels that I feel confortable with,
should I be wrong. If the bottom falls out before Noon, I just might
increase my stake. (Ribeye Please). A true bottom will not be certain in
any case. The news is bad or worse and a catalyst is hard to predict.
There's no shame in missing the first 5% of any boost, so caution is the
wiser choice at this juncture. (IMHO). :embarrest:


SB my friend I need a tourniquet on all extremities.:sick:
 
SB my friend I need a tourniquet on all extremities.:sick:

Excellant My Friend ! Now go outside and run up and down the road a
few times. Finally, we'll be able to proclaim "Blood In The Streets" and
the next 6 year Bull Market can finally begin ! :nuts:

Your pain is shared by many. 2008 left many accounts down -40%
In 2009 we're down -25% and there's 60 members in the Automated
Tracker doing worse then -17% (your YTD %).

Look, there's a long 10 months ahead of you. Each month will bring you
the opportunity to slowly dig yourself out of that area. Stay focused ahead
and be patient. Take a look at the Automated Tracker's worse performers
and notice how many are in (up to their eye balls) with the hope of a near
term bounce to Penny Heaven. Then take note of how many members are
100% (G) Funders in the Top 50. Emotions vs. Capitol Preservation can
be like a two sided coin. I'm not saying who's right or who's wrong, but
I can't help but think that emotions play a larger role at the bottom of
the return scale. Your currently beating the C,S and I on a YTD basis.
Even if it hurts, your better off then following the TSP's published game
plan. Keep that Jedi chin held high and if your focused (use the force)
you'll likely feel better in the near future. Being #86 on the Tracker
myself gives me that burning sensation too. But I practiced what I just
preached and find that it works for me and keeps me cautious, but
optomistic. I hope it works for you my good friend. :embarrest:
 
All three Index Futures are up around +0.75% currently. The dollar is
beating the Euro and falling against the Yen. Have a Good Night Every1.
;)
 
Excellant My Friend ! Now go outside and run up and down the road a few times. Finally, we'll be able to proclaim "Blood In The Streets" and the next 6 year Bull Market can finally begin ! :nuts:

SB,

I will do what I can to get the bull market started. :D Has anyone heard from L2R????
 
SB,

I will do what I can to get the bull market started. :D Has anyone heard from L2R????

I think personal and work priorities have left us without our friend on a
daily basis. L2R contributed alot and is missed. Just as Norm said, she
has popped in from time to time to say hi and post on a few threads.
If you leave a PM, I'm sure L2R will respond. ;)
 
Expecting Deficit growth today,,,,a good day tomorrow may squeeze out a profit.

IFT 100% (I) Fund at the COB today !

BEST OF LUCK TO EVERYONE !
 
So far things are looking PERFECT

We're not going up too fast .... or too far

for this to not follow through with even greater BULLISH Sentiment

So I'm thinking tomorrow will be the biggest one day gainer. :)

From your mouth to God's ears ! The EFA stands at +4.39%
But the EAFE only holds a +2.71% gain as I write. Maybe
the EAFE can swing harder tomorrow. Let Us Pray ! ;)
 
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