Squalebear's Account Talk

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I don't know why my gut is nagging me into believing that the S&P500
won't close below 700. Maybe an intraday drop, but not a close. Anyway,
thats what the gut's been tell'n me. As I write this, the Futures looks like this;

FUTURES:
DOW = -1.32% 6959
S&P = -1.40% 723.9

CURRENTLY:
JAPAN = -3.81%
USD/EURO (Practically Unchanged)
USD/YEN (Practically Unchanged)

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Fasten your seat belts. The week ahead
could be critical as the stock market sits on the precipice of nearly 12YR
lows. All the pressure points are in play, with reports or Congressional
hearings due on housing, consumer spending, government spending, bank
rescue efforts, manufacturing and perhaps most significantly - the labor
market.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/01/markets/markets_weekahead/index.htm
 
From the looks of the Automated Tracker, there's a
whole lot of friends taking the plundge today (IFT's).
I certainly wish all of them 5% bounce tomorrow. The
S&P500 jumped off a Intraday low of 704.27 on what
I can only describe as deminishing volume. I have my
fingers crossed for each and every one of you. I felt
another day of waiting was best. I too wanted to jump
in, but I've been jumping in a day or two early lately.
I'm gonna be watching closely, with a itchy trigger
finger on Tuesday. Best Of Luck To Us All. ;)
 
squalebear said:
From the looks of the Automated Tracker, there's a
whole lot of friends taking the plundge today (IFT's).
I certainly wish all of them 5% bounce tomorrow. The
S&P500 jumped off a Intraday low of 704.27 on what
I can only describe as deminishing volume. I have my
fingers crossed for each and every one of you. I felt
another day of waiting was best. I too wanted to jump
in, but I've been jumping in a day or two early lately.
I'm gonna be watching closely, with a itchy trigger
finger on Tuesday. Best Of Luck To Us All. ;)

Click to expand...


shhhhh.....You'll scare the bears away. Them bears are hungry.:D
Hopefully the plunge protection team doesn't have to many billions to throw at the market this afternoon.
 
squalebear said:
I don't know why my gut is nagging me into believing that the S&P500 won't close below 700. Maybe an intraday drop, but not a close. Anyway, thats what the gut's been tell'n me.
Click to expand...

Ok, that mess is over with. Any rally from here should be a whopper. But the same old question stands. "WHEN" ? After seeing todays action, I can only imagine the Bulls are going to be licking their lips over valuation. But the Bears have alot of ammo coming in the way of Economic Reports and Governmental Disappointment.

The TSP Daily Average Returns were down 6 straight days, up 1 day, then down a additional 4 days (counting todays average -5.11% probablity). Its said that the Market doesn't go up in a straight line, nor does it go down. But in the last 11 trading days, that one up day was only meant to "fool ya" enough to think there was hope. The bottom can't be called from here and the smart money continues to wait for capitulation. Hope is still lingering and we may very well see a DCB. I'm thinking soon and I'll play it like a Hit & Run driver. Luck can only explain if I hit the mark because all the factors show a bounce, but all the facts show a fall. :worried:
 
Here's a dash of good news for the future. Nearly half of the downward revision in GDP was due to inventory levels that turned out to be lower than originally thought - meaning companies ordered fewer goods in anticipation of weak customer demand. The situation is getting less worse. The silver lining, however, is that companies may rebuild stocks sometime in the first part of this year, possibly giving a bigger boost than anticipated to growth. If the market recognizes this it could turn into a catalyst. However, for the market the 39%-41% decline since the end of August was the worst six months since the 45% decline inthe period ended in June 1932. The Dow is now off 21% in 2009, the worst first two months of the year in its 113 year history - had enough yet. Last week the Dow lost 302.74 and today we got 299.64 - smells like capitulation to me for the lows.
 
Birchtree said:
- smells like capitulation to me for the lows.
Click to expand...

As always, your a wealth of dynamic and pertinent information. I agree,
there are many things brewing in the catalyst soup bowl. I'm thinking
Earnings are being set to such Low Expectations, that the numbers will
play a strong role along with Inventories. What I need you to do is, let
me know a few days before they reach the sideline investor's thoughts.
I need to stop losing money and have hope for a meager retirement. ;)
 
I'll be back to update the O/D Tracker and YTD % Results.
But before I go, I thought some real near future GOOD news
would put a smile on your faces. It did mine.

June/July I'll be pop-pop Squalebear ! From the looks of the ultrasounds,
the Squalebear family is adding a baby girl to the cave. Got milk ? :cheesy:
 
squalebear said:
I'll be back to update the O/D Tracker and YTD % Results.
But before I go, I thought some real near future GOOD news
would put a smile on your faces. It did mine.

June/July I'll be pop-pop Squalebear ! From the looks of the ultrasounds,
the Squalebear family is adding a baby girl to the cave. Got milk ? :cheesy:
Click to expand...


SB,

Congrats! :)
I take it you are not retiring anytime soon.:D
 
squalebear said:
I'll be back to update the O/D Tracker and YTD % Results.
But before I go, I thought some real near future GOOD news
would put a smile on your faces. It did mine.

June/July I'll be pop-pop Squalebear ! From the looks of the ultrasounds,
the Squalebear family is adding a baby girl to the cave. Got milk ? :cheesy:
Click to expand...

What a blessing. Think of the fun you will have spoiling the young one then sending her home to mom and dad. (Not trying to start trouble but that is the job of pop-pops--to spoil) Warms my heart. Congrats.
 
wv-girl said:
What a blessing. Think of the fun you will have spoiling the young one then sending her home to mom and dad. (Not trying to start trouble but that is the job of pop-pops--to spoil) Warms my heart. Congrats.
Click to expand...

Thank You Everyone ! :)

One flaw to our plan. Saving for a house of their own, as first time home
buyers, has taken a hit by this economy. I can only imagine what the
Bank requirements are now. And Baby makes Five. Yes, they live at home
with me and the Mrs. Life is about to change for all of us and there will be
no "sending her home". But we're not complaining. Life has given us an
unexpected path to travel down. So let it be written, so let it be done.
(Yul Brenner). Time and opportunity is on their side, so let the spoiling begin. :)
 
Monday - March 02, 2009
No words of wisdom on this forgetful day. The "Deficit" rose a bit, but still
could reach the "Red" area of the O/D Tracker before it hits the "Black". :mad:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents
(02/05/09) -0.1558 tsp cents
(02/06/09) -0.0301 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents
(02/27/09) -0.1760 tsp cents:confused:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/02/09) -0.1922 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin) :confused:
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Well pop-pop, you're still a daddy-o too it seems, but us feds know how to wear many hats simultaneously. :) Congrats on the coming addition, she will definitely be a positive distraction to give your attention to, despite whatever more the market throws at us in the coming few years. No straining the back playing giddy-up horsey with her tho, remember that when she wants to play down the road.:toung:
 
alevin said:
Well pop-pop, you're still a daddy-o too it seems, but us feds know how to wear many hats simultaneously. Congrats on the coming addition, she will definitely be a positive distraction to give your attention to, despite whatever more the market throws at us in the coming few years. No straining the back playing giddy-up horsey with her tho, remember that when she wants to play down the road.
Click to expand...

As hard as that will be,,,, this pony is broke and broken. I'll find something
else to give her belly laughs (just like the one I got reading your post). :)
 
The Interest Rate on TSP Loans is 2.875 % ;)

Is that what the (G) Fund Rate is too ? :confused:

I've always assumed it was the same, but without confirmation. :embarrest:
 
10 out of 11 days have been down, sounds good for an oversold scenario,
doesn't it. Futures are in the green as I write. But my gut says that this
might be De Ja Vue all over again. The one day that was up came in at
a combined TSP return average of +3.62% followed by the loss of -9.04%
combined over the last 4 days. Thats like saying; two steps forward, six
steps back. I guess if the day ends with a rally in our pockets, the finger
should be firmly placed on the trigger come Noon today. At minimum, one
might want to lower their position as I don't believe a 20% boost from
these levels is likely. Maybe from the 600 levels, but not in the 700's. This
is simply my opinion and I'm willing to wait just a little bit longer for what
I believe will be a better entry point. For those in today, Good Call and
Good Luck ! ;)
 
THE EAFE INDEX IS ONLY DOWN -0.31% CURRENTLY. BUT THE DEFICIT
IS AT -1.8022% YTD AND I CAN ONLY BELIEVE THAT AN UP DAY TODAY
WILL RESULT IN A BETTER RETURN IN THE (I) FUND FOR TODAY. WILL
THEY PAY OFF THE DEBT TO US IN ONE DAY? MAYBE, BUT THE TREND
IS OVER A FEW DAYS. I DON'T THINK WE HAVE A FEW DAYS BEFORE
THE NEXT DOWNTURN SHAKES THE TREE AND THE FEW APPLES LEFT,
WILL FALL IN CAPITULATION. THUS, I LEAN TOWARDS WAITING. (JMHO).:confused:
 
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