Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

SB....how often are you rebalancing these days.....I have been reading your thread from back in october concerning <1%....Daily, weekly???

Hi CC !

With more down days then up,,,,,I've been rebalancing (doing a <1%IFT)
over a couple of days,,,,,,instead of everyday. Instead of boosting my
percentages up (and seeing a down day on the next day) = greater loses
The next day would hurt just a bit less.

Example: IF I Did A <1%IFT
Monday's (C) Fund% @ 3.04%
Tuesday's new % = 4.00% (But the market plummets)
Conclusion: I'll take a hit on 4% of my money

Example: IF I Do NOT Do A <1%IFT
Monday's (C) Fund% @ 3.04%
Tuesday's % = 3.04% (But the market plummets)
Conclusion: I'll take a hit on ONLY 3.04% of my money

The above examples show that waiting can be beneficial while DCA'ing.
By having patience during a down turn and finding the best time to boost
your percentages up is going to be key. But I also take a chance that my
%'s will drop below the next whole percentage. (ie....2.99%) Should that
happen, I'll be locked into a maximum of 3% raise if I want to increase my
risk. Don't forget that you can use your Future Contribution's to pump up
any given fund's %'s every two weeks.

At the end of the day, calling the next day's market move is like consulting
a crystal ball. I've boosted my risk in the past, only to have a bigger down
day to follow. (Yuk) ! Luck and homework plays a big part in this kind of
timing. I'm not doing as well as I would have hoped, this month. But we
have a long year ahead of us.

 

[Guest2]

Just wanted to come by with a thanks for the <1% rebalance system you pioneered.

I went in Fri with some........... so on Mon I IFT'ed with the exact same numbers and got $5,000 more into equities.

Thanks for the find......... it will help some over the years to come.

TD,

Everyones outcome will be different, based on their account balances.
Your $5000 will be anothers $3000 or someone elses $10000. With that
said, I'm more then pleased that this ability is now more well known. Its
all about having options,,,,, when no one else (FRTIB) will tell you of such.

I can only hope that it works to your advantage. Your welcome !
Good Luck TD !

 

[CapeChem]

So in a declining market i can have 2 views...either round up to buy cheaper and cheaper or round down to curb losses?

and in a rising market i can have 2 views...round up to get catch the gains or round down to take profits?

I know its not that simple....but am i close!!

Thanks..I know you have hashed this out with many before me.

 

[Guest2]

So in a declining market i can have 2 views...either round up to buy cheaper and cheaper or round down to curb losses?

and in a rising market i can have 2 views...round up to get catch the gains or round down to take profits?

I know its not that simple....but am i close!!

Thanks..I know you have hashed this out with many before me.

It truly is that simple, but I caution you. In a declining market, you can
justify losses until the cows come home. At some point you have to say
to yourself, "I can't keep justifying losses by saying I bought more stocks
at a cheaper price". I was in the (I) Fund at 100% on the 4th of February.
By the 5th, I was in <1%IFT mode and spread my money out accordingly.
At the begining of trading on the 5th, I was down -0.31% MTD and -7.14%
YTD. That grew to -1.365% MTD and -8.13% YTD yesterday (02/23/09).
I mention this because I wasn't practicing what I preach. Todays rally is
going to put me under -1.00% MTD, but no where near wear I was. I
made a <1%IFT today and lowered my stake in the risk funds. The rally
looked as if it would hold, however, I had little confidence about the days
to follow. The Automated Tracker will show that I didn't bail out today. I
simply took some much needed gains off the table. If tomorrow proves to
be a continuation, I'll reget the move abit and ponder taking the profits
again. If we go down, I'll probably wait a few days before adding some
shares. The Bottom Line: The 4 views you gave above can justify any
move. Without having firmly comitted goals in mind, you can justify your
position, all the way to the poor house. Best Of Luck My Friend

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - February 24, 2009
THE DEFICIT TEMPORARILY FALLS BY THE WAYSIDE AND WE ARE IN
THE "OVERPAYMENT" AREA OF THE O/D TRACKER. IT WILL TAKE MORE
THEN JUST A DAY TO ANNOUNCE THIS CHANGE AS PERMINANT. BUT
I REALLY DON'T BELIEVE IT IS. I'M EXPECTING THE (I) FUND WILL
UNDERPERFORM AGAINST THE EAFE INDEX AND THE OVERPAYMENT
SHOULD SHRINK INTO THE DEFICIT AREA RATHER QUICKLY.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents
(02/05/09) -0.1558 tsp cents
(02/06/09) -0.0301 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :worried:
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - February 24, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -14.40%.....C=...-13.97%...-7.7650% (my figures)
DWC.= -13.45%.....S=...-14.11%..
EAFE= -19.68%......I=...-19.05%..
.............................F=...-00.69%..
.............................G=...+00.36%..

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=-06.29%.....C=...-06.08%...-0.9769%(my figures)
DWC.=-06.82%.....S=...-06.44%..
EAFE=-08.81%......I=...-08.09%..
.............................F=...+00.17%..
.............................G=...+00.18%..

 

[JTH]

Hey there O'l Squalebear, I hope you're getting better.

I haven't been checking on your thread much because the I-Fund has been a real stinker! Never-the-less, thank you for the updates.

 

[Guest2]

Hey there O'l Squalebear, I hope you're getting better.

I haven't been checking on your thread much because the I-Fund has been a real stinker! Never-the-less, thank you for the updates.

Hi there JTH ! Downturns and Poor Performance makes the best of us
in need of a break. Glad to see that you stopped by to say Hi to good O'l
Squalebear. Ah yes, the nasty, confusing and down right dangerous (I) Fund
can be a one tough horse to rope. The O/D Tracker shows a "Overpayment"
now and I can't help but think that the Fund will underperform the Index
for the next day or two. Its easier to role the dice at the Sands Casino
then to accurately predict what the Fund will do 24 hours out. Its the
smallest % at risk within my portfolio and think it will be that way for a few
weeks. I want to thank you for your well wishes and the recovery is moving
right along. (in the right direction).

 

[Guest2]

The MSCI EAFE INDEX is currently up +1.29% but remember, the (I) Fund
is in a Overpayment area and will underperform the index. According to the
O/D Tracker, this may not be the best time to add risk to the (I) Fund. :worried:

 

[Guest2]

A final thought until tonight's update !

Unless your using the <1%IFT method as a model throughout a sustained
period of time, monthly limits don't matter to you and you plan to keep %'s
at low levels,,,,,,,,,,,,,THEN,,,,,,,,,,,,, It would be wise to figure in a "Stop
Loss" share price that would tell you its time to bail. If you can't beat the
(G) Fund, then its best to be in the (G) Fund. With 3 trading days left in
February, I have no way of beating the (G) at this point. In fact, that
point was reached some time ago. But I failed to have a share price's in
mind (stop loss) in order to limit the pain. February will find me down by
just over 1% and this is a lesson learned.

The Average loss/gain within the TSP for the month of February:

7 DAYS = + 1.4542857142857142857142857142857 % (average up days)
9 DAYS = - 2.5188888888888888888888888888889 % (average down days)

If we're going down nearly twice as much going up, then your twice as likely
to lose money, no matter what your system is. With that in mind, I made
a Full IFT back to the (G) for now. I don't believe I'll miss anything too
significant (accept loses) in the next 3 days. In this market, I could look
like a God Send or a Fool on any given day. I'll wait for a better day.

 

[felixthecat]

Looks like a reasonable pullback to me down to S&P 752. Shake weak hand in the morning followed by a pull to near even. Then, rally on Thursday. Or, it could be wishful thinking. In any case, a flat or slightly negative close would still be a positive going into Thursday.

I guess...what I'm saying is...around this area...I'm not sure if I want to give up my position. I would be out around 795-800 but I'm not sure there is a lot of risk here since we bounced quite hard off 742 area. Decision...Decisions. Sell or stay in. :worried:

 

[Guest2]

Looks like a reasonable pullback to me down to S&P 752. Shake weak hand in the morning followed by a pull to near even. Then, rally on Thursday. Or, it could be wishful thinking. In any case, a flat or slightly negative close would still be a positive going into Thursday.

I guess...what I'm saying is...around this area...I'm not sure if I want to give up my position. I would be out around 795-800 but I'm not sure there is a lot of risk here since we bounced quite hard off 742 area. Decision...Decisions. Sell or stay in. :worried:

I'm not so sure we won't see 6000's in the Dow and similiar in the S&P.
Predicting the market based on Technicals and my gut has failed quite
miserably as of late. Being a short timer is not only a cause of concern,
but, a cause to be extra cautious. Here's an article that came out today
which puts the Market in perspective for me;

Recovery time and future stock market performance:
The analysis also calculates how long it might take for end-of-year 2008 401(k) balances to recover to their beginning-of-year 2008 levels, before the sharp stock market decline. Because future performance is unknown, this analysis provides a range of equity returns: At a 5 percent equity rate-of-return assumption, those with longest tenure with their current employer would need nearly two years at the median to recover, but approximately five years at the 90th percentile. If the equity rate of return is assumed to drop to zero for the next few years, this recovery time increases to approximately 2.5 years at the median and nine to 10 years at the 90th percentile.

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/343.cfm?sd=15
(Just a few things to think about: Link To Entire Article)

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday - February 25, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -15.38%.....C=...-14.87%...-7.8611% (my figures)
DWC.= -14.74%.....S=...-15.47%..
EAFE= -19.64%......I=...-20.64%..
.............................F=...-01.14%..
.............................G=...+00.37%.

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=-07.35%......C=...-07.05%...-1.0792%(my figures)
DWC.=-08.31%......S=...-07.93%..
EAFE=-08.76%.......I=...-09.89%..
.............................F=...-00.28%..
.............................G=...+00.18%.

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday - February 25, 2009
IT DIDN'T TAKE LONG AND THE SWING WAS STRONG. THE O/D
TRACKER FALLS IN THE "FLIP-A-COIN" MEDIUM AREA AND NOW
IS IN THE "DEFICIT" AREA. ANYONE HAVE A TWO HEADED NICKEL.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents
(02/05/09) -0.1558 tsp cents
(02/06/09) -0.0301 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

I stopped looking at charts, stopped doing my homework and started to
make choices based on practically nothing. The results have been obvious.
Bailing out when I should stay,,,, going in when I should yield,,,, losing
money when I should be patient. I'm not being too hard on myself, this
is simply a self evaluation of my decisions and performance. Other's
should take note of this post. Profit will never come easy and losses
will come uninvited. When you stop doing the required hard work, you
tip the scales in favor of a loss. :embarrest:

Just needed to pout for a minute !

 

[Gumby]

I stopped looking at charts, stopped doing my homework and started to
make choices based on practically nothing. The results have been obvious.
Bailing out when I should stay,,,, going in when I should yield,,,, losing
money when I should be patient. :embarrest:

Just needed to pout for a minute !

SB,

I feel your pain. This bear market is so tough for TSP investors as we have limited choices. I always thought if I could beat the S&P by 10% a year, I would do well. Well for the last two years I have nearly met that goal but at a huge cost. On the bright side, most of us all are doing much better than buy-n-holders. Hang in there.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

I feel your pain. This bear market is so tough for TSP investors as we have limited choices. I always thought if I could beat the S&P by 10% a year, I would do well. Well for the last two years I have nearly met that goal but at a huge cost. On the bright side, most of us all are doing much better than buy-n-holders. Hang in there.

I sure will Gumby. The (I) Fund is a whopping 20% down since Jan 1st.
I might have been alittle hard on myself because I wasn't able to sit at
the computer (even now) very long since my December 11th, 2008 injury.
Since I've only lost half of what the Risk Funds lost, there is room for hope.
But I gotta get off of my easy chair and start making some better decisions.
Heck, its only February and as I often say; "We have a long year ahead of us.

 

[Steadygain]

I stopped looking at charts, stopped doing my homework and started to make choices based on practically nothing.

Squalebear - your feelings are the deepest reflections of all of us except maybe 4 or 5.

Except for Birch - none of us are B&Hers. The charts and homework and everything else have been our guides over the years and served us well.

SO NONE OF US WERE PREPARED FOR WHAT HAS HAPPENED SINCE 10/07 - and what we knew was in the works since the Spring/Summer of 07.

I am one of the MAJORITY that lost a fortune last year and only if I don't lose a dollar and the Markets truly rebound towards the end of this year will I break even.

The results have been obvious.
By the Grace of Tom and the Moderators - the AT does not reflect last year.

Bailing out when I should stay,,,, going in when I should yield,,,, losing
money when I should be patient. I'm not being too hard on myself, this
is simply a self evaluation of my decisions and performance.

That's every single one of us - only in hindsight can we know the right decisions on 'short term moves'. A time like this requires a different mindset - mainly looking over the long term and knowing where things are going over the next 6 months.

Other's should take note of this post.

AMEN to that my friend. It should be Mandatory Reading - with a link that automatically pops up when this site is reached.

Profit will never come easy and losses will come uninvited. When you stop doing the required hard work, you tip the scales in favor of a loss. :embarrest:

You've got one of the best hearts and spirit - that's ever been made

Just needed to pout for a minute !

Hang in there little brother - it's a long road ahead and this is no where near over. BUT DOWN THE ROAD THINGS WILL GET BETTER.

 

[Guest2]

Hang in there little brother - it's a long road ahead and this is no where near over. BUT DOWN THE ROAD THINGS WILL GET BETTER.

Reminded of a few songs:

"It's a Long, Long Road, awaitinggg my return"

"Nobody gonna breaka my stride, nobody gonna
slow me down, oh no, I got to keep on move'n"

Thanks Steady !

 

[Guest2]

Thursday - February 26, 2009
Deficit Rises to a better entry point ! Idealy, It would stay the same
or increase the next few days so that locked in (G) Funders can take
full advantage of the opportunity. But I'm feeling strongly that it will
not be in the "Red Area" come March 2nd. :blink:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents
(02/05/09) -0.1558 tsp cents
(02/06/09) -0.0301 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------