Squalebear's Account Talk

I went the rest of the way into stocks Friday, hopefully on intuition.(?) That end of day uptick on the SPX may just tell the tale? Cheers.

We can only hope. I too enjoyed seeing the last 45 minutes turn for the
better, within the S&P 500. Stocks are "On Sale" and I'm feeling that we
could see some buying come Monday. Good Luck ! ;)
 
New Stock Market Terms: :D

CEO – Chief Embezzlement Officer

CFO - Corporate Fraud Officer

BULL MARKET – A random market movement causing an investor to mistake himself for a financial genius.

BEAR MARKET – a 6 to 18 month period when the kids get no allowance, the wife gets no jewelry, and the husband gets no sex.

VALUE INVESTING – The art of buying low and selling lower.

P/E RATIO – The percentage of investors wetting their pants as the market keeps crashing.

BROKER – What my financial planner has made me.

STANDARD & POOR – Your life in a nutshell.

STOCK ANALYST – Idiot who just downgraded your stock.

STOCK SPLIT – When your ex-wife and her lawyer split your assets equally between themselves.

MARKET CORRECTION – The day after you buy stocks.

CASH FLOW – The movement your money makes as it disappears down the toilet.

YAHOO – What you yell after selling it to some poor sucker for $240 per share.

WINDOWS – What you jump out of when you're the sucker who bought Yahoo at $240 per share.

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR – Past year investor who's now locked up in a nuthouse.

PROFIT – an archaic word no longer in use.

# # # # # # # # # # #

If you had purchased $1000 of shares in Delta Airlines
one year ago, you will have $49.00 today.
If you had purchased $1000 of shares in AIG
one year ago, you will have $33.00 today.
If you had purchased $1000 of shares in Lehman Brothers
one year ago, you will have $0.00 today.
But---- if you had purchased $1000 worth of beer
one year ago, drank all the beer,
then turned in the aluminum cans for recycling refund,
you will have received $214.00.

Based on the above, the best current investment plan
is to drink heavily & recycle. It's called the 401-Keg. :D
 
Looking for the bright spots :confused:
Commentary: Bleak jobs report doesn't provide too much to cheer
By MarketWatch
Last update: 10:57 a.m. EST March 6, 2009
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The jobs report was beyond horrible,
with the unemployment rate rising to a 25-year high of 8.1% and
nearly 2 million jobs lost in just the past three months.

The report was so awful, in fact, that some people insist that we must have reached a bottom. They are taking a lot of solace from the fact that job losses have improved two months in a row: From a 59-year high of 681,000 lost in December, to 655,000 in January, to 651,000 in February. Now that's progress!

Typically, a recession will end within four months of the peak of payroll losses. The theory is that companies maintain their most valuable workers for as long as they can, then capitulate when all hope is lost. That capitulation typically marks the bottom. Remember, the expansion begins when the economy starts growing again, however slowly. If that four-month rule of thumb holds this time (and the data aren't revised too much), the recession would end in March. That's highly unlikely, with the credit system still broken, consumers still trying to save more money, foreign markets weakening, and U.S. businesses in no mood to expand just yet.

However, if job losses have plateaued at around 650,000, that would be a small positive, even if heavy job losses continue for months. The repairs will take a long time, but they may be slowly beginning. The recession won't end soon, but the pace of decline may be slowing. The economy likely contracted at about a 6.5% annual pace in the fourth quarter, and is expected to drop at a 6% rate this quarter. Next quarter could be just 2% or so.

Job losses in construction, manufacturing and temporary help seem to be slowing, perhaps because most of the necessary cuts have already been made. There are reasons to think the economy may improve later this year. The credit markets should be significantly helped by the latest Fed program to funnel lending to consumers and small businesses. The fiscal stimulus will begin to have a real impact as well. None of this guarantees an early end to the recession, but there are some bright spots. Just a few.:)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...ED2CF-71B0-40FD-9F24-7E364E7CFB27}&dist=msr_1
 
My Wife is a Spanard so I keep track of their economy.
How's this for an Unemployment problem?:worried:

As for the employment, after having completed substantial improvements over the second half of the 1990s and during the 2000s which put a few regions on the brink of full employment, Spain suffered a severe setback in October 2008 when it saw its unemployment rate surging to 1996 levels. During the period October 2007-October 2008 Spain saw had its unemployment rate climbing 37%, exceeding by far the unemployment surge of past economis crisis like 1993's. In particular, during this particular month of October 2008, Spain suffered its worse unemployment rise ever recorded[15] and, so far, the country is suffering Europe's biggest unemployment crisis[16].
[more]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Spain
 
My Wife is a Spanard so I keep track of their economy.
How's this for an Unemployment problem?:worried:

As for the employment, after having completed substantial improvements over the second half of the 1990s and during the 2000s which put a few regions on the brink of full employment, Spain suffered a severe setback in October 2008 when it saw its unemployment rate surging to 1996 levels. During the period October 2007-October 2008 Spain saw had its unemployment rate climbing 37%, exceeding by far the unemployment surge of past economis crisis like 1993's. In particular, during this particular month of October 2008, Spain suffered its worse unemployment rise ever recorded and, so far, the country is suffering Europe's biggest unemployment crisis.

In the U.S., 37% unemployment would be worse then the Great
Depression figures. (if I recall correctly). Wow, thats a heck of a
problem for Spain to overcome. Add that to todays Global Financial
& Employment meltdown and it'll take years after this is over, for
Spain get out from under that rock. Yuk ! :sick:

After reading the article on CNBC about the March 12, 2009 meeting
concerning the Mark to Market, I hold out some hope that this might
become a catalyst for an extensive (short term) burst within the US
Financial Sector and possibly the entire market as a whole. I'm in the
(I) Fund at 100% and approximately 26% of all its stocks are in the
Financial Arena. But I think I may spread my money out to both the
(C) and the (S) come Monday at 12 noon. :worried:
 
Retail sales expected to be down on weak autos
Consumer faces 'fierce headwinds,' economists say
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last update: 12:01 a.m. EST March 8, 2009


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer spending (or the lack of) has been at the heart of this recession. Spending fell at the fastest pace in a generation in the final six months of 2008. So it was something of a shock to see retail sales rise a healthy 1% in January.

Has the consumer recovered? Not likely. Retail sales are expected to fall back again in February despite a rise in consumer prices. The retail sales report is the highlight of a fairly quiet week on the economic data front. It'll be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Other items of interest will include the January trade balance report, a reading on consumer sentiment in March, and the weekly numbers on job losses and chain-store sales. The retail sales report will get a close look after the anomalous January gain. Was January's rebound a real turn in the trend? Not according to most of the other indicators on the health of the consumer, including the reports from the big chain stores. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch are looking for sales to fall 0.4% in February, largely because auto dealers had their worst month in more than 25 years. Excluding autos, sales probably rose 0.3%, the consensus says. Most or all of that increase was just inflation. Gasoline prices, for instance, rose 7%.

The chain stores reported better-than-expected results in February. Same-store sales were flat compared with a year earlier, an outcome that counts as a major victory in this environment. The overall outlook for consumer spending is weak. The consumer faces "fierce headwinds from sharp drops in employment and declining household net worth," wrote Brian Bethune and Nigel Gault, U.S. economists for IHS Global Insight.

"Our general outlook for the U.S. consumer remains negative as mounting job losses and rising economic uncertainty should continue to depress consumption in months to come," wrote Meny Grauman, an economist for CIBC World Markets. The consumer sentiment survey for March should reflect that gloomy mood. The consensus sees the index falling to 55.0 from 56.3 in February. It would be the lowest level since 1980. The report from the University of Michigan and Reuters will be released Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern. The trade balance could see some improvement in January. The difference between imports and exports has fallen from about $62 billion per month a year ago to around $40 billion in the past three months. Economists are looking for further narrowing to about $38.1 billion in January from $39.9 billion in December. It would be the smallest deficit in more than six years. The report will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

That might be considered good news, but the improvement is mostly due to falling oil prices and a 17% annualized decline in real imports over the past six months. Falling domestic demand can hardly be considered good news, even if it does bring a silver lining in the form of a lower trade and current account deficit. Unfortunately, real (inflation-adjusted) exports have fallen at a 29% annual rate in the past six months as foreign markets have collapsed. "What is important now is not so much the deficit but the fact that world trade activity is plunging," said Gault and Bethune.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={308885AB-40FB-4DBB-B3DF-1A4EDEBEC024}
 
(2:55am) Currently: The Futures are as follows;

DOW = -0.51%
S&P = -0.41%
Nasd = +0.12%

Japan Closed Down -1.21%
Dollar/Euro -0.24%
 
(2:55am) Currently: The Futures are as follows;

DOW = -0.51%
S&P = -0.41%
Nasd = +0.12%

Japan Closed Down -1.21%
Dollar/Euro -0.24%

Futures ended Friday afternoon very overbought. I expected a little retrace but there were some bad news out of Japan. Europe is expected to open in the green. Hopefully, futures can bounce once they get into oversold.:)

European Factors-Firmer opening seen; eyes on Lloyds, Deutsche

Mon Mar 9, 2009 2:36am EDT

FRANKFURT, March 9 (Reuters) - European shares looked set to open higher on
Monday, tracking Wall Street's rebound in late trading on Friday, with eyes on
British bank Lloyds (LLOY.L) and Germany's Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE). Financial bookmakers saw Britain's FTSE 100 .FTSE opening between 20 and
22 points higher, or as much as 0.6 percent, the German DAX .GDAXI between 32
and 43 points higher, or as much as 1.2 percent, and the French CAC 40 .FCHI
between 8 and 29 points higher, or as much as 1.1 percent.http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL914522920090309?rpc=44
 
In the U.S., 37% unemployment would be worse then the Great
Depression figures. (if I recall correctly). Wow, thats a heck of a
problem for Spain to overcome. Add that to todays Global Financial
& Employment meltdown and it'll take years after this is over, for
Spain get out from under that rock. Yuk ! :sick:
I think it's currently at about 15% as of Feb, not quite at revolution levels :) The 37% in the story highlights how reporters use numbers.
 
Futures ended Friday afternoon very overbought. I expected a little retrace but there were some bad news out of Japan. Europe is expected to open in the green. Hopefully, futures can bounce once they get into oversold.:)

Banks in Europe are killing the US Futures Market. Now down over -2%. :mad:
 
Time for me to go home and open a cold one. (ice tea please).
By the time I get back on the MB,,,,, I'll probably invite "JACK"
to the party as well. Boy I hate losing more money ! By the time
noon roles around, I'll be too "Tea'd Up" to care as much and leave
my money at risk. We'll see ! :nuts: Talk to ya's soon ! :worried:
 
Monday - March 09, 2009
The Deficit rises to the Green "Flip-A-Coin" area of the O/D Tracker
and Tuesday has brought us a Rally that everyone had hoped for.
All major averages are up between 4%-5%. The EAFE is currently
up +3.28% and the EFA is currently up +5.93%. Here's hoping that
the (I) Fund falls somewhere in between and the Fund Managers do
not add to the deficit today. The trend is to go "BLUE" or "RED" which
would result in the (I) underperforming against the EAFE today
(accept for last week). But if this is not a one day "FOOL YA" rally
(again) and we can get one more day of positive moves, the deficit
won't matter much, because it will be sweet enough for each and
every one of us. GOOD LUCK ;)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/09/09) -0.1648 tsp cents
(02/10/09) -0.4122 tsp cents
(02/11/09) -0.2205 tsp cents
(02/12/09) -0.0243 tsp cents
(02/13/09) -0.2392 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents
(02/27/09) -0.1760 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/02/09) -0.1922 tsp cents
(03/03/09) -0.0922 tsp cents
(03/04/09) -0.0307 tsp cents
(03/05/09) -0.1521 tsp cents
(03/06/09) -0.0910 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/09/09) -0.1508 tsp cents :toung:
(03/10/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin) :cheesy:
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
I'm moving my money, I'll post soon. Spreading it out and lowering my risk. 7% is good enough to get scared !
 
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50g-10f-5c-10s-25i

Still being 40% at risk and most of that being in the (I) Fund
gives me more comfort, should a sell-off occur. If the rally
continues, I'm still in to win.
 
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Just for reference, there's all most a 2.6% difference between the
EFA and EAFE Index. The EFA is up +6.66% and the EAFE is +4.03%

THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE (I) FUND YTD RETURNS AND THE INDEX
IN WHICH IT IS MADE TO REFLECT (MSCI EAFE INDEX) STOOD AT
1.46% AT YESTERDAY'S CLOSE. THIS IS THE DEFICIT I SPEAK OF
AND HOPEFULLY WE'LL SEE IT ALL PAID BACK TO US TODAY.
 
Been spending most of my time trying to learn how to trade EFT's lately, but just wanted to drive by and say 'hey'. :)

Lady

Glad you did. I want to learn more about EFT's myself but don't have
a trading account yet. So I'm focusing on the only retirement fund I
have. The TSP ! We'll talk more often soon. Thanks for the drive-by :)
 
Europe shares snap 3-day losing run; banks lead

LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - European shares closed higher on Tuesday, snapping a three-day losing run, with banking stocks surging after a positive Citigroup (C.N) memo.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top shares rose 5 percent to close provisionally at 689.94 points, the biggest one-day percentage gain since Dec. 8. But the index has still lost more than 17 percent in 2009, battered by a banking crisis that has helped to tip several major economies into recession. "This is a market less sensitive to bad news, and more sensitive to good news," said Bob Parker, vice chairman of asset management at Credit Suisse. He added: "Markets are focusing on Citigroup. People are now less paranoid about the banking sector. There is a feeling that further writeoffs in the banks are going to be minor."

A Citigroup memo helped boost sentiment in the banking sector. Citigroup's chief executive, Vikram Pandit, said the bank was profitable in January and February and was "confident about our capital strength" after tough internal stress tests, according to the memo. Citigroup shares rose more than 37 percent on Wall Street. Back in Europe, banking shares were the standout winners. BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA), Banco Santander (SAN.MC), Barclays (BARC.L), Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX), Deutsche Bank DBGKn.DE, HSBC (HSBA.L), and UBS (UBSN.VX) all rose between 10.4 and 17.7 percent.

Energy stocks reversed earlier losses, as crude futures CLc1 prices ticked up to above $47 a barrel. Total (TOTF.PA), ENI (ENI.MI), BP (BP.L), Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) and Repsol (REP.MC) were up between 3 and 8.5 percent. Across Europe, the FTSE 100 .FTSE index was up 4.9 percent, Germany's DAX .GDAXI was 5.3 percent higher and France's CAC 40 .FCHI was up 5.7 percent.

http://www.reuters.com/article/eurMktRpt/idUSLA1619720090310
 
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