Squalebear's Account Talk

[justbizness45]

Squale,
I believe we are in RALLY MODE - and will have some volitility along the way - but overall the GAINS will outweigh the LOSSES in the short term.

I'm 100% G - and appear to be 'stuck'

How could I move to high risk as much as possible for the rest of this month?? With C,S, and L Funds?

Steady, , not SB but, when and where does your next contribution go in? If you have one coming up shortly then you can put it in stocks and <1% IFT the rest of the month. Wont get you in a whole lot but it is better than sitting on the sidelines during a rally.

 

[Guest2]

Squale,
I believe we are in RALLY MODE - and will have some volitility along the way - but overall the GAINS will outweigh the LOSSES in the short term.

I'm 100% G - and appear to be 'stuck'

How could I move to high risk as much as possible for the rest of this month?? With C,S, and L Funds?

Steady, JB45 is correct.If your out of regular IFT's, then the only way to
get dollars into the risk funds would be through Contribution Allocations.
I would check to see how much (percentage wise) you will add to any
given fund. If its close to 1% then your looking good ! Here's what I mean;

*Example: If you have a $100,000 balance !
Future Allocations Total Amount = $900.00 or 0.90%
The goal is to reach 1.01% through gains.

Should you believe the rally will continue, the day the TSP website shows
your balance ABOVE 1% (1.01% minimum), the software will allow you to
do a <1%IFT and make that fund 2%. It'll look like this:

Wednesday..................Thursday....................Friday
(G) 99.10%----------> (G) 99.99%----------> (G) 98.00%
(S) 00.90%----------> (S) 01.01%----------> (S) 02.00%

But know this my friend, if you only allocate a small amount into your
account or the percentage isn't close to the 1% mark, It would be hard
as hell to get the necessary gains to reach above that 1% mark from the
start. After you go 100% (G) Jail, there's little in the way of parole. This
is why I think very hard before bailing out at 100% into the (G) as my
last move (IFT). There's nothing stopping you from doing the Allocation
anyway and waiting it out. That amount won't make much of a difference
while it sits in Jail. If I only had one fund to choose, I'd go (S) or (I). But
you can also spread the wealth amongst all the stock funds as well.

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you so much Squalebear

I am IN JAIL

I've got a Very High Security Clearance - so that's kind of funny

Since my ultimate goal was to get 100% High Risk - I'll wait until the beginning of the month. Am copy and pasteing every response today - including this one.

Will leave 1% in the future - NOW I KNOW


Thanks again,
Steady

 

[Guest2]

Thursday - March 12, 2009
THE DEFICIT TURNS INTO AN "OVERPAYMENT" FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN 2009. THE EAFE ENDED DOWN -0.34% AND THE EFA ENDED UP
+2.26%. CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE IN THE U.S. MARKET
TODAY. I CAN'T HELP BUT THINK THAT THE (I) FUND WILL ZOOM
UPWARDS TOMORROW AND THE OVERPAYMENT OF $0.08 CENTS
WILL BE EATEN UP BY SOME NICE GAINS, WITH LITTLE CONCERN
BY THE (I) FUNDERS. AGAIN, CONGRATULATIONS !

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents
(02/27/09) -0.1760 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/02/09) -0.1922 tsp cents
(03/03/09) -0.0922 tsp cents
(03/04/09) -0.0307 tsp cents
(03/05/09) -0.1521 tsp cents
(03/06/09) -0.0910 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/09/09) -0.1508 tsp cents
(03/10/09) -0.0943 tsp cents
(03/11/09) -0.0939 tsp cents
(03/12/09)+0.0892 tsp cents (Overpaid) :suspicious:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met) :suspicious:
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Thursday - March 12, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -16.88%.....C=...-16.28%.....-8.3878% (my figures)
DWC.= -15.48%.....S=...-16.31%..
EAFE= -22.55%......I=...-21.75%..
.............................F=...-01.05%..
.............................G=...+00.49%.

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=+02.62%......C=...+02.77%.....-0.3798%(my figures):suspicious:
DWC.=+02.24%......S=...+02.24%..
EAFE=.-03.71%.......I=...-00.59%..
.............................F=...+00.20%..
.............................G=...+00.09%.

 

[Guest2]

A final note for tonight. Ok, Who let the dogs out ! Wow, what a beautiful
day for the U.S. Stock Funds. I was selling on the way up with very little
confidence that we'd see such a day. Well, I WAS WRONG ! AGAIN ! :nuts:
But not entirely ! My decision, as with so many others, was based on so
many months of disbelief. Hey, if it was easy, we'd be all rich. But my
current goal was to beat the (G) Fund until April comes and I left enough
in to do so. I didn't think I'd get over three weeks of (G) Fund returns in
one day, but it happend and I'm glad it did. Tomorrow, my balance %'s
will allow me to move more money in and I'll give you my situation;

(G) 91.86%---------------> 89.00%
(F) 04.00%---------------> 04.00%
(C) 02.08%---------------> 03.00%
(S) 01.05%---------------> 02.00%
(I). 01.05%---------------> 02.00%

This shows what I'll be capable of doing as far as my <1%IFT abilities. I'm
playing with small amounts and percentages, but at least I'm still playing.
My decision to do the above will be determined, come 11:45am on Friday.
It isn't rocket science to think that a mild pullback might occur over the
next few trading days, I will buy into them on the way down. Adding more
shares on the way down. Maybe after 2 down days or so. But I'm leaning
on adding more risk to start. (just as the above example shows).

 

[nasa1974]

I wouldn't be surprised with a sell off tomorrow. Hopefully a small one and not a major reset.:worried: Three positive days in a row. HOW LONG HAS THAT BEEN? Right now from what I see futures are down. I think I would be more concerned if futures where up right now. Just my opinion.

 

[Guest2]

I wouldn't be surprised with a sell off tomorrow. Hopefully a small one and not a major reset.:worried: Three positive days in a row. HOW LONG HAS THAT BEEN? Right now from what I see futures are down. I think I would be more concerned if futures where up right now. Just my opinion.

I share your thoughts. But the obvious might give way to momentum.
February TSP Returns during that 8 day rally included only 2 days of
downward movement within most of the fund. But in February, we did
not see 10% so quickly. Timing has been tough. (IMHO) I would reduce
my exposure when you think momentum changes. Maybe 2 days or so
of downward movement. When you think its all over, don't lock yourself
into jail. You'll have the option to beat the (G) should you decide. At
such minor percentages, being wrong and seeing additional gains will
bring more options. Being right and seeing losses will not take a strong
enough bite out of your outstanding profits to even matter. Again, just
my humble opinion. I bailed out too soon to take full advantage of today.
But I still managed to get over three weeks of (G) Fund style returns.
Hey, I have to find the good in missing a 5% day somewhere. :embarrest:

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey, I have to find the good in missing a 5% day somewhere. :embarrest:

It's better to miss out on 5% than to lose 5%.

 

[Guest2]

It's better to miss out on 5% than to lose 5%.

I'm feeling better now, Thanks 350z !
I justed needed someone to remind me !

 

[KevinD]

It's better to miss out on 5% than to lose 5%.

AMEN to that...

 

[nasa1974]

I share your thoughts. But the obvious might give way to momentum.
February TSP Returns during that 8 day rally included only 2 days of
downward movement within most of the fund. But in February, we did
not see 10% so quickly. Timing has been tough. (IMHO) I would reduce
my exposure when you think momentum changes. Maybe 2 days or so
of downward movement. When you think its all over, don't lock yourself
into jail. You'll have the option to beat the (G) should you decide. At
such minor percentages, being wrong and seeing additional gains will
bring more options. Being right and seeing losses will not take a strong
enough bite out of your outstanding profits to even matter. Again, just
my humble opinion. I bailed out too soon to take full advantage of today.

You did manage to be on the receiving end of a nice rally on Tuesday, which I missed.

But I still managed to get over three weeks of (G) Fund style returns.
Hey, I have to find the good in missing a 5% day somewhere. :embarrest:

The biggest question for today is do you stay in stocks or jump back to G? With the G-20 summit this weekend it really could have a major effect on the markets come Monday. Asia and Europe showing positive signs resulting from the US markets on Thursday, futures are positive, and the early talk about the G-20 summit is encouraging. It just seems lately that the market does the opposite of what is expected. It will be interesting to read the different opinions in regards to the summit in the other accounts today.

 

[Guest2]

The biggest question for today is do you stay in stocks or jump back to G? With the G-20 summit this weekend it really could have a major effect on the markets come Monday. Asia and Europe showing positive signs resulting from the US markets on Thursday, futures are positive, and the early talk about the G-20 summit is encouraging. It just seems lately that the market does the opposite of what is expected. It will be interesting to read the different opinions in regards to the summit in the other accounts today.

This market has forgotten the REAL ECONOMY is facing long term
challenges. I"M LOVING IT ! But come Tuesday - March 17th
the PPI figures come in ,,,, and ,,,, the CPI comes in the next day.
Can you imagine them coming in Better then Expected. Wow, that
would give the market another kick in the tail. But I don't want to
be in too heavy and find out we're worse off then expected. So, I've
added to my position for Monday and expect to lower it by days end.
Maybe 94-3-1-1-1 ,,,,,,,, or,,,,,,,, 95-2-1-1-1,,,,,, we'll see, maybe
I'll just let it ride. (G) JAIL is not for me !

 

[Guest2]

MSCI EAFE INDEX is currently up +3.03% ​

CAN YA FEEL THE LOVE !

THE DOLLAR IS FLAT AGAINST THE EURO TOO !​

 

[justbizness45]

CAN YA FEEL THE LOVE ! ​

I feel it! :toung: Wondering if I went in enough. Maybe I should have went in 50% instead of only 30%. Oh well, I still have one more IFT I can use on a consolidation day...

 

[Guest2]

The EAFE INDEX closed up; +2.31%
The EFA (ETF) closed up; +0.66%

Should the Fund Managers desire to eliminate the Overpayment today
and bring us back into the Deficit Area of the O/D Tracker, the figures
to bring the (I) Fund to dead zero would look similar to this;

Share Price: $11.2957 per share
Daily Return Cents: +$0.1410
Daily Return Percent: +1.26%

Anything less, would Drive us into Deficit Status.
Anything more, would keep us in Overpayment Status.

One additional item, the MSCI INDEX is down MTD -1.41% while the
U.S. Indexes sit in positive territory (DWCPF) +2.63% (S&P) +3.40%
Will the European market catch up,,,or,,,will the US drop lower ?


Good Luck to all the (I) Funders and I'll be back to update this puppy come 7:30pm !

 

[Steadygain]

Squale - just stoppin' by to let ya know I love ya little brother

and hope you're feeling better

will be prayin' for ya over the weekend



Steady

 

[Guest2]

Squale - just stoppin' by to let ya know I love ya little brother

and hope you're feeling better

will be prayin' for ya over the weekend



Steady

Funny who we write to each other at the same time, only different threads. :toung:

I'm feeling really good, but wonder if the Injection I got on January 15th is masking
the problem. We'll find out by April 15th as they last up to 3 months. But I'm
optimistic and feel great ! That's important and thanks for keeping an eye on
me as you do ! HAVE A SUPER WEEKEND AND ENJOY EVERYTHING IT BRINGS !

 

[Guest2]

Friday - March 13, 2009 :embarrest:
THE DEFICIT RETURNS ! PRETTY MUCH EXPECTED AS THE DEFICIT
SIDE OF THE O/D TRACKER HAS BEEN PREFERRED BY THE FUND
MANAGERS FOR A VERY LONG TIME. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN THE
OVERPAYMENT SIDE IN THE PAST, IT HAS BEEN A TEMPORARY
POSITION IN WHICH THE FUND MANAGERS QUICKLY CHANGE.
THE EAFE INDEX CLOSED UP +2.3091% AND THE EFA ENDED UP
+0.6611% FOR THE DAY. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND !

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/16/09) -0.0000 tsp cents (Holiday)
(02/17/09) -0.2088 tsp cents
(02/18/09) -0.1270 tsp cents
(02/19/09) -0.2187 tsp cents
(02/20/09) -0.0071 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/23/09) -0.2303 tsp cents
(02/24/09)+0.0725 tsp cents
(02/25/09) -0.1127 tsp cents
(02/26/09) -0.2280 tsp cents
(02/27/09) -0.1760 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/02/09) -0.1922 tsp cents
(03/03/09) -0.0922 tsp cents
(03/04/09) -0.0307 tsp cents
(03/05/09) -0.1521 tsp cents
(03/06/09) -0.0910 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(03/09/09) -0.1508 tsp cents
(03/10/09) -0.0943 tsp cents
(03/11/09) -0.0939 tsp cents
(03/12/09)+0.0892 tsp cents (Overpaid)
(03/13/09) -0.0320 tsp cents :embarrest:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met) :embarrest:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Friday - March 13, 2009 :embarrest:

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -16.24%.....C=...-15.63%.....-8.3534% (my figures)
DWC.= -15.15%.....S=...-15.96%..
EAFE= -20.76%......I=...-21.04%..
.............................F=...-01.05%..
.............................G=...+00.50%.

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=+03.40%......C=...+03.55%....-0.3430%(my figures)
DWC.=+02.63%......S=...+02.66%..
EAFE=.-01.41%.......I=...+00.31%..
.............................F=....+00.20%..
.............................G=....+00.10%.