You'll hear it on TV, you'll hear it on the MB, you'll even hear it in your dreams of better times. Technicals, Sentiment, Oversold conditions leading to a long awaited Shuttle up to the outer layer of the atmosphere. I'm not buying it. I went into risk (just a bit early) as I too felt the coil was about to pop. I got lucky and regained most of my losses for March. After the mavelous Tuesday we had, I started to think about the week before. The talk was centered around "when the bottom will be seen", "will M2M be suspended" and "will the uptick rule be changed". A Bear Rally seemed to be inevitable, but the question of how strong it would be, loomed like a Buzzard hovering over a dead carcus. In fact, that question has not been answered to this day and that Buzzard still hovers overhead. The signs of economic recovery have improvement recently but there are so many that need to begin the healing process that haven't. That, will take time. With the market looking out 6-9 months ahead of the economy, there seems to be hope, excitement and the strongest desire to regain what's been lost in the way of returns. I can't help but think of last week, last month and last year. I'm happy to see the market end positive today and I'm hoping that we see a few more of those in the coming days. I'm hoping we see what we saw in February (3rd -12th) when the (C) rose 6 out of 8 trading days. Yes, that would mean a couple of down days will be included. But take note that those two days resulted in a average loss of -5% among all TSP stock funds. Ultimately, I've kept some money at risk as I've been terribly wrong for quite some time. I believe that we will see a drop from euphoria and reality will rear its ugly head once again. It could take a week, or, it could be like in February and take only a day. I believe we have 8 and a half months left in this year and there's plenty of time to get lucky again. I don't believe we've seen lows that we won't see again or come close to. Revisiting the bottom is something I wish to avoid. If that means I've joined the Pansey (
spelling?) Party, so be it. In my mind, avoiding the loses in a Bear Market is just as important as hitting the big gains in a Bull Market. I'm going to be cautious, have minimal at risk for the rest of the Month and attempt to beat the (G) Fund while in my <1% IFT levels. Thursday begins my quest against the (G) Fund. It might take only a day or it may take several days. But that is my goal for the rest of this Month. Not a lofty goal, but one which gives me a certain amount of satisfaction by avoiding the (G) with no way out to play the game. It also opens up a tiny victory against the Thrift Saving Board and the limits they've imposed on all of us. Should I accomplish my (G) Fund goal, the (G) Jail could eventually hold me hostage until Thursday, April 2nd, 2009. That'll be just fine. Should I fail my quest, the losses will be enduring and I won't feel guilty or bad for doing so. So my good friends, there you have it ! The Obsessive Compulsive ramblings of a mad man. It was locked in my head and I needed to release it from my mind. Should any of this make sense, I'm certainly hoping it helps others. I know it helped me !
