Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Tuesday - March 17, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -13.85%.....C=...-13.23%.....-8.2608% (my figures):blink:
DWC.= -13.38%.....S=...-14.13%..
EAFE= -18.33%......I=...-18.13%..
.............................F=...-01.32%..
.............................G=...+00.53%.

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=+06.26%......C=...+06.41%....-0.4491%(my figures)
DWC.=+04.77%......S=...+04.89%..
EAFE=+01.66%.......I=...+03.97%..
..............................F=....-00.08%..
.............................G=....+00.13%..

 

[Guest2]

A FINAL THOUGHT FOR TONIGHT !

I can't help but think that by April 2nd, I'll be chomping at the bit to
get in stronger,,,, but the current rally will leave me with little left to
gain. But it won't be May, so I won't go away !

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

Morning!! How crazy was yesterday? Asia and Europe looking good early.
Anyway, maybe we can ask Tom to set up a link that can take some of our better explainations of the <1% process. SteveG just had a question about it. It seems that more people are looking for more information about our :nuts: <1% moves. What do you think?

 

[Guest2]

SB,

Morning!! How crazy was yesterday? Asia and Europe looking good early.
Anyway, maybe we can ask Tom to set up a link that can take some of our better explainations of the <1% process. SteveG just had a question about it. It seems that more people are looking for more information about our :nuts: <1% moves. What do you think?

Good Morning Nasa !

Not to slight anyone in at this point (I am too) I'd like to see a slide
until the end of March, then a return to this level come April. Greedy !
800 in the S&P has been a tough resistance area for some time. I want
the market to wait for me ! (LoL) :nuts:

I think a seperate Thread would probably be the way to go, in lieu of
having a seperate link made by Tom. I've avoided doing so because
for various reasons. However, its extremely difficult to search all the
posts within my Account Thread as this topic goes back quite a bit
and there's alot of posts that are not related. With that said, I'll try
to jot down some Key Points of Information, make a seperate Thread
and utilize it for specific questions the membership has. Members like
yourself (more familiar with the goals) could then contribute towards
answers during my absences ? What'cha think ?

 

[cbackous]

Do it, to it.

the <1% moves is a great way to "use" the system to realize some small gains, or do a little cost averaging without taking yourself out of the game.

 

[Guest2]

The EAFE Index is currently up +0.5947%. BUT, there's a Overpayment
of +0.2023% showing within the O/D Tracker and I expect will be paid
off today come 4:20pm. I believe the Fund Managers will swing this to
the "Deficit" side by approximately $0.03 tsp cents, no matter where
the index ends up today. If we closed now, that would be about -$0.01
tsp cents or a closing price of $11.6630 per share. This is way too early
to predict the above. However, I'm fairly confident that the (I) Fund will
underperform against the EAFE Index today and expect another day or
two of the same.

 

[Guest2]

Do it, to it.

the <1% moves is a great way to "use" the system to realize some small gains, or do a little cost averaging without taking yourself out of the game.

Thanks Super "C"

 

[RunningFool]

I started using your <1% system today, just wondering where i need to send you commission. Thanks for the good work.

 

[nasa1974]

Good Morning Nasa !

Not to slight anyone in at this point (I am too) I'd like to see a slide
until the end of March, then a return to this level come April. Greedy !
800 in the S&P has been a tough resistance area for some time. I would be surprised if we didn't have a sell off. Heavy resistance right now to get anywhere near 800. But another day or two of green would be nice.
I want the market to wait for me ! (LoL) :nuts:

I think a seperate Thread would probably be the way to go, in lieu of
having a seperate link made by Tom. That is what I was thinking about.

I've avoided doing so because for various reasons. However, its extremely difficult to search all the posts within my Account Thread as this topic goes back quite a bit and there's alot of posts that are not related. Couldn't agree more. I had to go back to late January to answer SteveG's question.

With that said, I'll try to jot down some Key Points of Information, make a seperate Thread and utilize it for specific questions the membership has.
My thought was a place we could send members to that wondered how the <1% worked. We could have a couple of explainations on the process. I think if we leave the thread open to questions and answers then the <1% explainations get buried deeper and deeper in the thread.

Members like yourself (more familiar with the goals) could then contribute towards answers during my absences ? What'cha think ?

Let's see if we can get something up and running. Sure would be easier than searching back 20, 30 or more pages to answer the question. Another thought just popped up. OOOOHH!! Thats scary. Maybe we could put some of yours and my best answers on one of our posts. Say over the weekend when we have more time. If we both like the explainations than we could save it as a word document and then just cut and paste when needed. Naa!! A thread might be easier.

 

[Guest2]

I started using your <1% system today, just wondering where i need to send you commission. Thanks for the good work.

Its in my Bone Marrow to help others and thats more then enough
for me. It's always nice to get a slap on the back (unless injured)
and for that, I must thank you !

I will mention in my future thread that this method is no guarantee
of additional profit (as opposed to the G Fund), but it certainly keeps
the head in the game at minimal risk, with the potential of beating the
(G)arage type returns and being Incarcerated with no options.

 

[nasa1974]

Its in my Bone Marrow to help others and thats more then enough
for me. It's always nice to get a slap on the back (unless injured)
and for that, I must thank you !

I will mention in my future thread that this method is no guarantee
of additional profit (as opposed to the G Fund), but it certainly keeps
the head in the game at minimal risk, with the potential of beating the
(G)arage type returns and being Incarcerated with no options. Very good point.

Good work SB.

 

[Guest2]

Let's see if we can get something up and running. Sure would be easier than searching back 20, 30 or more pages to answer the question. Another thought just popped up. OOOOHH!! Thats scary. Maybe we could put some of yours and my best answers on one of our posts. Say over the weekend when we have more time. If we both like the explainations than we could save it as a word document and then just cut and paste when needed. Naa!! A thread might be easier.

Your too funny ! :nuts: There's alot we can do to make this easier. With my
weekend just ending (off duty Tue/Wed) I'll start to get my act together
as soon as I can ! Bankers Hours with weekends off are not allowed
within this Recession. Geeez, I miss it though ! :toung:

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

I am going to hijack your thread for a minute. Here's14U just posted this:

"There is a doomsday scenario we should all be aware of that could come to fruition. Because of the AIG scandal (paid bonuses), there is very little political will now to give AIG anymore bailout money. If it is revealed today (or in the future) that AIG will need more bailout money, the chances are very good they will not get it. We are then at a place where the whole global financial structure is in deep jeopardy. Folks, this is going to get very interesting as well as scary."


Something to think about.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

I am going to hijack your thread for a minute. Here's14U just posted this:

"There is a doomsday scenario we should all be aware of that could come to fruition. Because of the AIG scandal (paid bonuses), there is very little political will now to give AIG anymore bailout money. If it is revealed today (or in the future) that AIG will need more bailout money, the chances are very good they will not get it. We are then at a place where the whole global financial structure is in deep jeopardy. Folks, this is going to get very interesting as well as scary."Something to think about.

It's too damn hard to figure out if the scenario mentioned is possible or
simply a story leaked by someone who has "shorted" the AIG Stock. It's
more likely that the politicians will find a way to TAX the SOB's out of
their bonuses. AIG will not be allowed to fail ! (JMHO) :suspicious:

 

[nasa1974]

It's too damn hard to figure out if the scenario mentioned is possible or
simply a story leaked by someone who has "shorted" the AIG Stock. It's
more likely that the politicians will find a way to TAX the SOB's out of
their bonuses. AIG will not be allowed to fail ! (JMHO) :suspicious:

There has been too much money tossed at AIG to let them fail now. It is the backlash of the bailout to fund bonuses that may make the market skittish. Lately it has been sell the rumor and the news. Congress in there ineptitude should have absolutely said no bailout money for bonuses or you go to jail.

 

[Guest2]

Update:

*On March 5th, 2009 I jumped into the market with both feet (100%).
*The three down days that followed I lost -5.99% (ouch).
*On the fourth day of being stubborn, I gained +5.03% (relief) and
..lowered my risk to (50%) and spread out the wealth.
*On the fifth day, I added a additional +0.39% and decided to bail
..and lock in my loss of -0.57% (Feeling Lucky) But I didn't surrender
..to the (G) Fund entirely. I lowered my risk to (8%) with plans to beat
..the (G) Fund results for the remaining 14 trading days in March.
*My <1%IFT allocation on March 12, 2009 was 92-4-2-1-1
*On March 17, 2009 I began kicking myself in the Key-ster because
..the market ralliedC)+8.03%,,,(S)+6.18%,,,(I)+7.75%,,,(F)+0.01%
*Not being one to look back for long, I looked for the positives within
..the move that I made against the (G) Fund Restriction.

As of this moment: I have accumulated +5.17 weeks of (G) Fund returns
in 5 trading days. That represents a +.2965% as opposed to a +0.06%
return that the (G) Fund would have provided. Would I have preferred to
be in during the rally? Hell Yes ! But we have to live with the decisions we
make and look forward, Find the positives and move on. This was just a
small post concerning my thought processes and moves so far this month.
I'm sure I'll look back at this and laugh aloud in retrospect.

 

[Guest2]

I'm going to stay put today and allow my %'s to drop within the (C),(S)
and (I) Funds. The F Fund should grow to 4.01% for tomorrow and I may
bump up the (F) Fund to 5% if all holds true. We'll see. Good Luck !

 

[Guest2]

The (S) fund goes "GREEN" - Financials are up (squeeze) !

 

[Guest2]

A Final Thought for today;

We strive to understand what sometimes, can not be understood.
We look at good Fortune as somehow getting lucky and Misfortune
as not doing enough. We make good decisions and we make bad
ones. But somehow, we always find the motivation to do better
the next time. Isn't that what life has always held for us. Isn't that
what investment does to/for us. No matter what the outcome is,
it's always good to share the experience with friends and fellow
members on TSPTalk.com and I'm greatful for the opportunity to
do so.

 

[Guest2]

Is It Time To Abandon Buy And Hold Investing?
Wednesday March 18, 12:15 pm ET
By Simon Maierhofer

Just because you have access to water, sugar and food coloring doesn't mean you know how to make Coca Cola. The right mix is priceless. The right mix of asset classes, also called diversification, used to be considered priceless as well.

Diversification was a popular subject of discussion leading up to the 2007 stock market peak and started to lose its luster early 2008 when commodities began their freefall. Many are led to believe that holding tight will be the only option to make back their money while some die-hard diversification junkies and asset allocation aficionados are still trying to figure out the 'perfect mix.' How did the 'perfectly allocated buy-and hold portfolio' fair from the October 2007 peak to the March 2009 bottom?
To see how a diversified portfolio stacks up against the broad U.S. equity market, we've put together a hypothetical portfolio with exposure to all main asset classes. Of course, we realize that this cookie cutter portfolio pales in comparison to some tailor-made diversification models. Nevertheless, there are only so many asset classes, all of which (with the exception of certain bonds and gold) were down.

An equal weighted mix of the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (NYSEArca: VTI - News), iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: AGG - News), iShares Dow Jones US Real Estate ETF (NYSEArca: IYR - News), iShares MSCI EAFE (NYSEArca: EFA - News), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEArca: EEM - News) and the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity ETF (NYSEArca: GSG - News) would have lost 48.12% from the market peak (October 9th, 2007) to the March 9th, 2009 lows.

As a point of reference, the S&P 500 (AMEX: SPY - News) lost 55.19% in the same period while the Dow Jones (AMEX: DIA - News) was down 52.32%. Even though a 7% advantage helps, neither result should be acceptable to investors.

Unless a diversified portfolio was disproportionally weighted in either bonds or gold, the results were quite similar. The SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEArca: GLD - News) gained 23.91%, yet the broad iShares S&P GSCI Commodity ETF (NYSEArca: GSG - News), which sports a 10% allocation to gold, lost 47.20%.

The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond (NYSEArca: TLT - News) saw a gain of 21.90% while the iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSEArca: HYG - News) melted by 32.87%.

In the aftermath of the dot.com bubble burst induced bear market, many sectors boomed while others laid dormant. The Financial Select SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) for example gained 25% in 2000 while the Technology Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLK - News) lost 42%. Yes, diversification worked back then.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter was a step ahead already in 2008. Very early on, it identified the bear market as a deflationary depression. The 'red across the board' performance of nearly all asset classes is indicative of a deflationary environment. Whether we find ourselves technically in a depression right now or not is irrelevant. Fact is that we'll end up there. Of course, the government doesn't set the trend, it follows it. The official statement: 'we are in a recession' wasn't released until after the stock market lost some 40% in December 2008. Quite to the contrary, the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter recommended short ETFs until November 2008 and once again in January 2009.

In fact, on December 14th, 2008 we forecasted the following: 'Range-bound trading, as we've seen over the past several weeks, grinds and tests the patience of investors. More importantly, it gives the stock market a chance to calm extreme levels of investors' pessimism. Conversely, optimistic sentiment, which should be more visible above Dow 9,000, gives way to further declines. These should draw the indexes close to or below their November 21st lows of 7,445 for the Dow and 740 for the S&P.' This was followed up with this statement on February 13th, 2009: 'The best target for a temporary low is 6,700 for the Dow and 700 for the S&P 500. Extreme pessimistic sentiment may drive the indexes even towards Dow 6,000 and S&P 600'. On March 9th, the Dow reached an intraday low of 6,440. Rather than diversification, the newsletter promoted using short ETFs either to hedge long positions or simply as profit centers. Such Short ETFs included the UltraShort Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: SKF - News), UltraShort Real Estate ProShares (NYSEArca: SRS - News) and UltraShort S&P 500 ProShares (NYSEArca: SDS - News). From the January 6th 2009 highs to the March lows, those ETFs gained between 80% - 150%.

This bear market has humbled many investment gurus, stock pickers and asset allocation wizards. Yesterday a peacock, today a feather duster. If you don't want to get your nest egg scrambled, it might be time to take action and review your portfolio. The brand new issue of the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter includes reliable short, mid and long-term forecasts for the U.S. equity markets along with winning ETF profit strategies. If you keep doing what you're doing, you'll get what you've got. Are you ready for more?

http://biz.yahoo.com/etfguide/090318/209_id.html?.v=1