Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I noticed that also. It's kind of strange. It really doesn't matter much to me. I go to G for safety and move out when I think I can catch a gain. I don't try to time the G but that's just me. Good idea to post just in case. As always thanks for watching out.

Same here JB, (G) is for safety and not profit. Although recently, Its
been like a winter home. At least, thats the way it feels ! :nuts:

Interesting! Thanks for sharing the information. I'm also glad to see that you're feeling well enough to be at the keyboard for multiple posts. I know how tough it can be to type when that neck is acting up. Lady

One day at a time my dear, I participated in Self Defense Training last
week (I manned up) and only experienced alittle soreness. No pain meds
since then. I also wrote you a funny on your thread. Enjoy !

 

[Guest2]

I'm expecting the deficit to grow today. With a nice day tomorrow, I expect
the returns to be sweet. Should we tank tomorrow, I expect the (I)
Fund to lose less. Good Luck Evry1 !

This is a hit or miss speculative move, possibly 1 or 2 days long. If I get a good
hit, I will bail, as its a long year and my monthly goals couldn't get any lower
then they are now.

100% (I) Fund

 

[WorkFE]

In and out. Both IFTs
Make a little gain and then relax the rest of the month.
I LIKE IT

Good luck SB

 

[Guest2]

Good News AND Bad News. The good news (at this point in the morning)
is that the EAFE is currently trading up +3.02% and the US Futures are
in the green (S&P +0.28%). The Hang Seng and Nikkei are both up by an
average of +2.50% at 2:26am.

The Bad News is that Austalia closed down -1.94% and the Deficit in the
O/D Tracker did not increase as I anticipated. In fact, we are closer to
zero then on Monday. It is now more likely we'll see an increase in the
Deficit today. So here's hoping for a +4% gain in the EAFE and EFA and
maybe we'll get lucky enough to see a 3% gain in the (I) Fund today.

A final note before I post the O/D Tracker. I'm a little tweeked about the
rules established by the FRTIB (yet again). They've set up their monthly
dates so we're not allowed to transfer our money and be in the market
on the 1st trading day of any given month. For me, I had to wait until
February 2nd to move my money into the market for February 3rd. What
I think they should have done was allow IFT's as of January 31, 2009 in
order to be in on February 2nd trading. This holds true for every month.
On Friday - February 27th it would have been nice to be able to do a
IFT at the noon deadline and be in the market on the first trading day of
March (2nd). But no, anyone in the (G) without IFT's left will have to wait
until Monday, March 2nd, 2009 to do a IFT and won't be in until the 3rd.
Just another FRTIB rule that restricts our rights to manage our money.

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - February 03, 2009
Unexpected, the Deficit was reduced and we are even closer to
zero then on Monday! This bauds well for an increase today and
reaping lower gains within the (I) Fund. (should we have an up
day). Lets hope the Rally continues stronger then yesterday and
Deficit holds where its at for yet another day!

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/01/09) -0.0000 tsp cents
(01/02/09) -0.0315 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09) -0.2193 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.0027 tsp cents
(01/07/09) -0.4067tsp cents
(01/08/09) -0.1243 tsp cents
(01/09/09) -0.3787 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09) -0.3663 tsp cents
(01/13/09) -0.1949 tsp cents
(01/14/09) -0.3111 tsp cents
(01/15/09)+0.0170 tsp cents
(01/16/09) -0.1785 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/19/09) -0.0040 tsp cents
(01/20/09) -0.3872 tsp cents
(01/21/09)+0.0993 tsp cents
(01/22/09) -0.1688 tsp cents
(01/23/09)+0.0226 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/26/09) -0.1724 tsp cents
(01/27/09) -0.1727 tsp cents
(01/28/09) -0.1729 tsp cents
(01/29/09) -0.3744 tsp cents
(01/30/09) -0.2566 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - February 03, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
$SPX= -07.17%.....C=...-07.01%...-6.8297% (my figures)
DWC.= -06.32%.....S=...-06.93%...
EAFE= -10.14%......I=...-10.53%...
AGG..= -02.94%.....F=...-00.79%...
.............................G=...+00.20%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns:MTD SB current returns:
$SPX=+01.58%.....C=...+01.52%...+0.0188%(my figures)
DWC.=+00.79%.....S=...+01.37%..
EAFE=+02.28%......I=...+01.59%..
AGG..=-00.44%......F=...+00.07%..
.............................G=...+00.01%..

 

[Guest2]

Thirty minutes before the bell and the EAFE Index is up +0.75% and the
US Futures market is swaggering between +0.25% - +1.00% as the Eco
Data (ADP Report) was Bad, but better then expected. There's plenty of
talk about the bottom again, but don't put too much weight behind that
as we've been here before, several times. For you (I) Funders, Europe is
looking "GREEN" across the board and Japan Closed up nicely. Here's hoping
for a "DAY LONG RALLY" and not a mixed view as we've seen as of late.
All in all, the day is shaping up for some sweet pennies.

We still have ISM Services, Crude Inventory and Initial Claims (very important)
to push the market in either direction. Maybe we'll see better then expected
bad news again at 10am-10:30am or the market will once again ignore
some bad stuff. Earning look to be mixed, however, there's alot more better
then expected bad news mixed in these movers as well. A concern about
next months Guidance Expectations for many of the companies reporting
today consist of Lower expectations (more so then yesterday). I'm hoping
this is already baked in and the Bulls can see through this. With only one
raising it's Guidance, we'll have to wait and see. Good Luck to us all !

 

[Guest2]

Efa = +1.34%
eafe= +2.05%
ftse= +2.04%



keep it going bulls ! We can all use a little champagne !

BETTER THEN EXPECTED ISM REPORT CAME IN TO HELP !

 

[Guest2]

The 3 month LIBOR has recently raised from 1.17% to 1.24%
Isn't this a sign that lending is getting tighter, as the lower the
LIBOR % - the more banks are lending to one another ?

 

[WorkFE]

Be careful SB.
Thursday and Friday was my down fall last week. Do to the ice storms here in KY, I was busy doing other things. I managed to bank alittle of it but know where near all.
Good luck with your decision.

 

[Guest2]

Be careful SB.
Thursday and Friday was my down fall last week. Do to the ice storms here in KY, I was busy doing other things. I managed to bank alittle of it but know where near all.
Good luck with your decision.

Thanks WorkFE, I made my moves.

Because every index hit and dropped at resistance levels (ie..S&P 851)
and the AGG is sitting at the lower Bollinger Band I made the following
IFT for today and will go into effect at the close of business.

(G) 90%
(F) 05%
(C) 03%
(S) 02%
(I) Left this fund with hopes of a minimal Deficit move. But greed shall
not nail me as it has. Resistance at 40 was strong within the EFA.

I liked the (F) from here, but only at 5% and I will slowly lower that
position should we see any upward movement.

GOOD LUCK !

 

[Guest2]

EAFE Closed up +1.66%
EFA is currently trading up +0.58%
The dollar is up against the Euro

All point to a lower return for the (I) Fund against the EAFE Index.
I'll tell ya what,,,,, lets split the difference between both funds I
mentioned above and call it even ! That would be a +1.12% gain.
Better yet, lets see a late day rally based on cheap stock prices
and rocket past all resistance levels (I won't hold my breathe).

I'll be back tonight to update the O/D Tracker.

IF ANYONE HAS AN ANSWER TO MY PREVIOUSLY POSTED LIBOR
QUESTION, PLEASE SQUEEZE IN AND FEEL FREE TO POST YOUR
KNOWLEDGE OF SUCH THINGS. IT WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

 

[WorkFE]

3:30-4:00 rally to ya SB

 

[350zCommTech]

The 3 month LIBOR has recently raised from 1.17% to 1.24%
Isn't this a sign that lending is getting tighter, as the lower the
LIBOR % - the more banks are lending to one another ?

No, it's the opposite. It probably needs to go back to 4-5% for lending to have returned to normal.

I wrote a while back that LIBOR was being manipulated by the Feds. That might not be true today, but movements at these levels are meaningless IMO.


BTW, I'm also looking at the F fund. One or two more big jump in yields and I might make a move.

 

[Birchtree]

The three-month LIBOR peaked at 5% last year so even at 1.24% doesn't create any shakes - might just be market jiggles.

 

[Guest2]

No, it's the opposite. It probably needs to go back to 4-5% for lending to have returned to normal.

I wrote a while back that LIBOR was being manipulated by the Feds. That might not be true today, but movements at these levels are meaningless IMO.


BTW, I'm also looking at the F fund. One or two more big jump in yields and I might make a move.

Thanks 350, I had it all backwards !

 

[Guest2]

The three-month LIBOR peaked at 5% last year so even at 1.24% doesn't create any shakes - might just be market jiggles.

Nothing but a hickup compared to 5% ! But in the right direction !

 

[Birchtree]

SB - this may help on LIBOR - plenty of graphs.

" The credit market tide seems to be turning, although additional data are required to confirm that the banking system is on the mend. In short, progress has been made, but the thawing of the credit markets has a way to go before liquidity starts to move freely and confidence returns to the world's financial system again."

http://safehaven.com/article-12514.htm

 

[Guest2]

SB - this may help on LIBOR - plenty of graphs.

" The credit market tide seems to be turning, although additional data are required to confirm that the banking system is on the mend. In short, progress has been made, but the thawing of the credit markets has a way to go before liquidity starts to move freely and confidence returns to the world's financial system again."

http://safehaven.com/article-12514.htm

Excellant Birch,,,,,,Many Thanks,,,,,,,I'll check it all out tonight.

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday - February 04, 2009
What can I say, A Day Late and A Dollar Short. Pooh !
Big deficit against the EAFE and a loss in the (I) Fund !
It all looked good going into Noon, but the Market can
fool the best of us. At least it was only down -0.33%

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/01/09) -0.0000 tsp cents
(01/02/09) -0.0315 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09) -0.2193 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.0027 tsp cents
(01/07/09) -0.4067tsp cents
(01/08/09) -0.1243 tsp cents
(01/09/09) -0.3787 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09) -0.3663 tsp cents
(01/13/09) -0.1949 tsp cents
(01/14/09) -0.3111 tsp cents
(01/15/09)+0.0170 tsp cents
(01/16/09) -0.1785 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/19/09) -0.0040 tsp cents
(01/20/09) -0.3872 tsp cents
(01/21/09)+0.0993 tsp cents
(01/22/09) -0.1688 tsp cents
(01/23/09)+0.0226 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/26/09) -0.1724 tsp cents
(01/27/09) -0.1727 tsp cents
(01/28/09) -0.1729 tsp cents
(01/29/09) -0.3744 tsp cents
(01/30/09) -0.2566 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(02/02/09) -0.0966 tsp cents
(02/03/09) -0.0500 tsp cents
(02/04/09) -0.2773 tsp cents :blink:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .3000 thru +.3999 Elevated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .2000 thru +.2999 High Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1999 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0999 Low Overpayment (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0999 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0100 thru-.1999 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.2000 thru-.2999 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level) :blink:
-.3000 thru-.3999 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
--------------------------------------------------------------------