Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Sorry about the delayed commentary, hard night last night with very
little time. It appears that we are at, or just above the $0.25 TSP
Cent Level. The key doesn't cover anything higher, BUT, we have
seen it higher. In fact, alot higher. Let me refresh thy memory. In
June of 2008 we saw a very surprising spike to the Overpayment
Side. Coincidentally or not, this was done just before the Big Bank
Liquidity Scare and just before the Markets hit the skids. I don't
know if this is a tell-tail sign that bad things are around the corner.
However, should this Overpayment continue to go higher without
a payback, the Fund Managers might be stacking $$$$ into the (I)
Fund for reasons yet to be known by the common investor. Just
food for thought as this could change as early as todays closing.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2526 tsp cents
(01/08/09)
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Mid-Range Level)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday - January 07, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.38%.....C=...+00.49%...+0.1169% (my figures)
DW.=+01.57%.....S=...+01.28%...
EFA= -01.27%......I=...+00.73%...EAFE..........+03.52%:blink:
AGG= -00.49%.....F=...+00.12%...
...........................G=...+00.04%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.38%....C=...+00.49%....+0.1169%(my figures)
DW.=+01.57%....S=...+01.28%...
EFA= -01.27%.....I=...+00.73%....EAFE..........+03.52%:blink:
AGG= -00.49%.....F=..+00.12%...
..........................G=...+00.04%...

 

[Guest2]

I don't know about anyone else, but I absolutely loved the news and
earnings this morning. The better then expected unemployment claims
topped my list. This could lead to a surprise ending of today's trading.
To the upside, of coarse. But I also lean towards the S&P500 working
its way down towards the 884 level in the next two days. Should it do
so, I'm going in strong for next week. Anything lower, watch out below!

 

[Guest2]

Revised, ERROR FOUND !

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Mid-Range Level)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

I'm itching at the way the (I) Fund is trading. Makes me want to dive in
head first.

 

[Steadygain]

I went from a 7.25% (30yr Fixed) to a 5.75%
(30yr Fixed) Before renovations, the home was appraised at $230k in 2005 and I currently have a $167k balance with 26.33 years left on the loan.

My thoughts were to lower my monthly payment of $1017 (P&I).

I would go with a 15 yr - under 5% or close to it instead of the 30 yr

Make sure it is FIXED and that any extra goes to P and not I. Also make sure you can pay it off early.

$167K - for 15 yrs @ 5% would likely not exceed $1017 (P&I).
You have been paying way too much if that is lowering your payments.

Norm's situation of $70K saved him a lot - but you have the Tax Write Off and it's too much to pay in 5 years.

Although I'm not one of your brothers, would a sis do?(for now)

Do the figures on a 15 yr fixed. Anyway, my 2 cents. Good luck.

Excellent advise my sweet.

Squalebear - try to retain the original look as much as possible and you'll likely be able to have it listed as "Historic" which would greatly increase the value of your home.

 

[JTH]

I'm itching at the way the (I) Fund is trading. Makes me want to dive in
head first.

I've already scratched that itch today with a bump from 20 I to 30 I

Here's to hoping (based on your analisis) they don't pay it all back today!

 

[Guest2]

i would go with a 15 yr - under 5% or close to it instead of the 30 yr
I would love to shorten the term but that
raises payment to a level that i can't afford.

make sure it is fixed and that any extra goes to p and not i. Also make sure you can pay it off early.
Again, i'd love to shorten the term and i don't do arm's. If i could
make principal only payments to shorten the term, that would be
a good thing. but I can't.

$167k - for 15 yrs @ 5% would likely not exceed $1017 (p&i).
you have been paying way too much if that is lowering your payments.
my current payment is $1017 because we fixed the
house with alot of the equity in the last refinance. The new
payment for a 15 year fixed rate loan at 4.25% would be
$1256.30 (p%i) and thats my problem. An increase in my
monthly debt. I would also have yearly property taxes
added to it. Currently $6556 yrly. Gotta love new jersey.
homeowners insurance also rises each year. It now costs
me $676 yrly. So you see, not only can't i afford the (p%i)
increase, property taxes and homeowners insurance could
price me right out of my home.

norm's situation of $70k saved him a lot - but you have the tax write off and it's too much to pay in 5 years.
I'm thinking that the lowest interest rate and no closing costs and
zero pts. Will be my best bet. I've seen 4.50% but huge closing
costs and i don't want to add too much to my balance to accomplish
this goal. Then again, it won't be my debt when i'm dead and buried.

excellent advise my sweet.

squalebear - try to retain the original look as much as possible and you'll likely be able to have it listed as "historic" which would greatly increase the value of your home.

Although the outside crumbled before our eyes, we couldn't
afford to keep the type of wood planking used as siding and
the windows drove our heating bill up to $700 per month in the
winter. You would love the inside. All original wood and trim,
hidden pocket doors etc.... But the kitchen was obsolete when
apraised and it was upgraded to todays standards with today's
products.

 

[Guest2]

I've already scratched that itch today with a bump from 20 I to 30 I

Here's to hoping (based on your analisis) they don't pay it all back today!

Good Luck JTH, the last few times I decided to jump in, the Market still
went down further and I ended up being abit early. I decided to wait until
tomorrow for that amongst other reasons.

 

[Steadygain]

Then again, it won't be my debt when i'm dead and buried.

Squalebear - my little brother - please know that I always think in terms of ZERO DEBT and that was the basis of my previous note.

26 years and 30 years is the same to me. Now that I realize what the ultimate goal is I would advise differently. You want to reduce your monthly payments as much as possible to have more to enjoy on a monthly basis throughout the duration of your life.

The house payments will likely continue throughout the years so let's bring them down - and enjoy the extra cash.

Here I would seek the lowest monthly payments over 30 yrs. If you have to pay $2,000 up front to get that BUT your payments come out to $720 a month instead of $980 a month - in the long run you'll come out ahead.

If you can find a Loan for 4.25% for 30 yrs - that won't last long and will never come again.

 

[Guest2]

Then again, it won't be my debt when i'm dead and buried.

Squalebear - my little brother - please know that I always think in terms of ZERO DEBT and that was the basis of my previous note.

26 years and 30 years is the same to me. Now that I realize what the ultimate goal is I would advise differently. You want to reduce your monthly payments as much as possible to have more to enjoy on a monthly basis throughout the duration of your life.

The house payments will likely continue throughout the years so let's bring them down - and enjoy the extra cash.

Here I would seek the lowest monthly payments over 30 yrs. If you have to pay $2,000 up front to get that BUT your payments come out to $720 a month instead of $980 a month - in the long run you'll come out ahead.

If you can find a Loan for 4.25% for 30 yrs - that won't last long and will never come again.

Time doesn't allow me to read or respond, I'll catch up soon.
Thanks my Brother, Its been a tough couple of days.

 

[Guest2]

WE PAID BACK SOME DEBT TODAY, MORE TO COME. LETS NO JUMP IN
UNTIL THE DEBT IS LOWER AND THE MARKET TRENDS UP A LITTLE BIT
LONGER. GOOD LUCK TO US ALL !

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Mid-Range Level)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Thursday - January 08, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.72%.....C=...+00.83%...+0.2017% (my figures)
DW.=+02.76%.....S=...+02.45%...
EFA=+00.47%......I=...+01.84%...EAFE..........+02.71%:blink:
AGG= -01.29%.....F=...+00.29%...
...........................G=...+00.05%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.72%....C=...+00.83%....+0.2017%(my figures)
DW.=+02.76%....S=...+02.45%...
EFA=+00.47%.....I=...+01.84%....EAFE..........+02.71%:blink:
AGG= -01.29%.....F=..+00.29%...
..........................G=...+00.05%...

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear -


Here I would seek the lowest monthly payments over 30 yrs. I WAS
WONDERING IF GETTING A 40 YR. MORTGAGE WOULD GOOD, I'M GOING
TO CHECK OUT A FEW TO SEE IF THEY ARE WORTH WHILE. If you
have to pay $2,000 up front to get that BUT your payments come out to $720 a month instead of $980 a month - in the long run you'll come out ahead. IF THE COSTS ARE INCLUDED IN THE MORTGAGE,
SUCH AS A NO-CHARGE REFINANCE, THAT MIGHT HELP TOO.
If you can find a Loan for 4.25% for 30 yrs - that won't last long and
will never come again. RIGHT NOW THEY'RE AT 4.50%+POINTS
BUT I'VE SEEN 4.25% WITH HUGE FEES.

I've got alot going on right now, but I don't want to miss the boat all
together. In a ideal world I would like a 4.25% 40 year Fixed Rate w/
(0) zero points and low closing cost and fees being incorporated into
the loan. I'll keep looking ! Thanks for your advice Big Brother !

 

[XL-entLady]

I've got alot going on right now, but I don't want to miss the boat all
together. In a ideal world I would like a 4.25% 40 year Fixed Rate w/
(0) zero points and low closing cost and fees being incorporated into
the loan. I'll keep looking ! Thanks for your advice Big Brother !

Just one more thing to factor in. Something we always looked at in long-term corporate money issues. And that is the time value of money. What I mean by that is that $100 dollars today is going to have more purchasing power (be worth more) than $100 dollars in twenty years. So more money in your pocket today can be worth a longer term loan is some cases.

For whatever that is worth,
Lady

 

[Steadygain]

Squalebear,
PLEASE KNOW - I'm just a random character on a vast internet and have little to NO UNDERSTANDING of your situation (and all the more your family's situation).

The most important thing by far is MAMA BEAR - and the Bear cubs. There are many factors unknown to me that only you and your immediate family can understand and address.

I do know our present economic circumstances are in bad shape and the BANKS and major players are very anxious to get money moving. Usually things that look too good to be true are not true.

If your main goal is to reduce your monthly expenses then the ultimate goal would be to find the longest loan you can at the lowest possible rate. I didn't know 40 year loans existed (maybe there are 50 year).

Usually getting another loan is not worth it without at least a full 1%. 5.75 - 4.5 = 1.25%

Going from 30 yrs (26.4) to 40 yrs will substantially reduce it as well

Usually I would NEVER encourage anyone to go in debt; but since your plan is primarily engaged to give you extra income in the immediate future and over the years - and debt itself is not an issue THEN 40 years would increase your realized income.

This is a very strange (and unique) situation for me to ponder. I am geared towards doing 99.9% of repairs and maintainence myself; buying cars/vans and everything else with cash. Always pay the credit card bill immediately. Always give the first 10% to church. Our ultimate goal is to give the Lending Instituations the smallest amount of interest possible - to avoid non essential expenses (so we do not have hi-speed internet; cable; VIP Credit Cards (which they are always trying to give), memberships to any organizations, or subscriptions to anything other than charities we donate to (or gifts we've received). No alcohol or tobacco and rarely go out to eat. So my situation is very different from yours and our health is excellent.

Whatever you decide to do - make sure it's Mama Bear giving the greatest input - and best of luck my friend.

Lady was giving advise as I started my note - her advise is very solid.

 

[Guest2]

Just one more thing to factor in. Something we always looked at in long-term corporate money issues. And that is the time value of money. What I mean by that is that $100 dollars today is going to have more purchasing power (be worth more) than $100 dollars in twenty years. So more money in your pocket today can be worth a longer term loan is some cases.

For whatever that is worth,
Lady

Understood and Thank You !

 

[Guest2]

The most important thing by far is MAMA BEAR - and the Bear cubs. There are many factors unknown to me that only you and your immediate family can understand and address.

I WEAR THE PANTS IN MY FAMILY !!!!! BUT ONLY WHEN MOMMA BEAR LETS ME ! :nuts:

I HAVE THE STRANGEST FEELING THAT THIS INQUIRY TURNED INTO A SURVIVAL QUESTION. THATS NOT THE CASE AT ALL. I'M ALWAYS LOOKING TO LOWER MY MONTHLY BILLS, ESPECIALY MY LONG TERM DEBT AND BEING SO CLOSE TO RETIREMENT. I WAS SIMPLY TRYING TO GET SOME OPINIONS CONCERNING MORTGAGE REFIANCE BASED ON SOME OF THE EXPERIENCES OTHERS HAVE BEEN THROUGH. IF I GAVE ANYONE THE IMPRESSION THAT THIS WAS A REFINANCE OR LOSE MY HOME TYPE SCENARIO, PLEASE FORGIVE ME FOR FAILING TO KEEP THIS TOPIC IN PROPER PERSPECTIVE.

THERE ARE TONS OF OPTIONS OUT THERE AND MANY ARE VERY MISLEADING, UNTIL YOU READ THE FINE PRINT. MY HOUSE IS MY ONLY DEBT. THE TAX ADVANTAGES OF HOME OWNERSHIP IS IN FULL EFFECT. I WANT TO CONCLUDE THIS BY THANKING BOTH YOU AND LADY FOR GIVING ME YOUR OPINIONS. THEY ARE ALWAYS TIMELY, ALWAYS WELCOME !

 

[Guest2]

Major IFT into US Stock Funds ! 50%(C) and 50%(S) !
Overpayment is too high in the (I) Fund. The (F) isn't
ever attractive to me, why start now ! Good Luck !

 

[Guest2]

THE EFA CONTINUES TO LOSE MORE THEN THE (I) FUND AND ALSO
CONTINUES TO ADD TO THE OVERPAYMENT BETWEEN THE TWO.
WHEN LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, BOTH THE EFA AND (I) FUND
ARE BOTH IN A DEFICIT SITUATION AGAINST THE EAFE. OBVIOUSLY,
THE EFA HAS THE GREATEST DEFICIT THEN THE (I) FUND. I'LL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THEM BOTH !

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Mid-Range Level)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------