Squalebear's Account Talk

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Currently Allocations = 0-91-3-3-3

<1%IFT today C.O.B. For Tuesday = 0-89-3-4-4

I've found I'm alittle too heavy in the (F) right now. This next move should
do nicely. I'm doing o.k. right now, just alittle exhausted. I'll keep it short.
Nice to see everyone kicking it on my thread. Talk to ya's soon ! ;)
 
squalebear said:
Currently Allocations = 0-91-3-3-3

<1%IFT today C.O.B. For Tuesday = 0-89-3-4-4

I've found I'm alittle too heavy in the (F) right now. This next move should
do nicely. I'm doing o.k. right now, just alittle exhausted. I'll keep it short.
Nice to see everyone kicking it on my thread. Talk to ya's soon ! ;)
Click to expand...
Rest up my friend, I think the markets might be stale for the next few weeks.
 
Not that I publish the O/D Tracker results for the (F) Fund which
compares it against the AGG, but if you were in the (F) today, I'm
sure you feel the pain of a huge Overpayment Payback of -$0.09
TSP Cents as I did,,,,OUCH ! The (I) Fund continues to hold onto an
Elevated Debt "Overpayment" and managed to lower the Debt since
Monday's Huge $0.3154. There's still more that needs to be paid !
Against the EAFE, the (I) Fund is still closer to the YTD results as
the EFA is down a heck of alot more. This will be clear in my next
post of all YTD %'s.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents (HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09)+0.3154 tsp cents
(01/13/09)+0.2532 tsp cents
(01/14/09)+0.2913 tsp cents
(01/15/09)+0.2082 tsp cents
(01/16/09)+0.2075 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/19/09)+0.0000 tsp cents (HOLIDAY):mad:
(01/20/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .2500 thru +.3500 High Overpayment, (Payback Imminent) :mad:
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Low Level)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Friday - January 16, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-05.88%.....C=...-05.75%...-05.80% (my figures)
DW.=-03.81%.....S=...-04.20%...
EFA=-09.56%......I=...-07.98%...EAFE..........-06.62%
AGG=-00.58%.....F=...+00.36%...
..........................G=...+00.10%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-05.88%....C=...-05.75%....-05.80%(my figures)
DW.=-03.81%....S=...-04.20%...
EFA=-09.56%.....I=...-07.98%....EAFE..........-06.62%
AGG=-00.58%.....F=..+00.36%...
.........................G=...+00.10%...

The (F) fund underperforms against the AGG. This translates into a
huge Payback of $0.09 TSP Cents. The two funds are closer on a YTD
basis then they've been for some time.
 
Barclay's stock dropped 25% today. They had to make up the losses somewhere to stay liquid. Hey TSP Board, are you watching that foreign bank that administers our funds.:suspicious:
 
XL-entLady said:
Good to see your post, SB my friend! Did your little safari earlier in the week go okay?

Lady
Click to expand...

Duty Time, but I wanted to touch base. My Safari left me without memory
of the entire event. This was what I had hoped for. Too soon to tell if the
experience will give me a long term trophy, but I'm hopeful. But for now, it
has resulted in a positive. Thanks Lady, I'll try to keep up. I just couldn't
do it yesterday at all. :(

JB45,
Barclays holds a deficit in the (I) Fund against the EAFE, so they can't use
the (I) Fund all that much this time. Barclays will be one of the few that
stand, after all is said and done. Just like Wells Fargo. (JMHO). ;)

I'LL BE BACK IN THE MORNING ! :D
 
squalebear said:
Duty Time, but I wanted to touch base. My Safari left me without memory
of the entire event. This was what I had hoped for. Too soon to tell if the
experience will give me a long term trophy, but I'm hopeful. But for now, it
has resulted in a positive. Thanks Lady, I'll try to keep up. I just couldn't
do it yesterday at all. :(

.....I'LL BE BACK IN THE MORNING ! :D
Click to expand...
SB, I'd better clarify. I wasn't hinting about you keeping up with your self-assigned analysis, although I do appreciate the information. I was just being happy that you were feeling better enough to be at a computer. Because when your cervical discs are acting up bigtime the last thing you want to do is keyboard. Been there, done that, got too many t-shirts. :rolleyes:

So great to know that you are feeling well enough to post! And good to hear about your safari update. Those big game hunts can be worth the price! :cool:

Lady
 
SB, I also posted this on my thread,

Hello everyone, I finally completed my analysis (if you want to call it that)of SB's intriguing <1% IFT discovery. So here it is:

I ran several 2 week scenarios for performing <1% IFTs from different periods throughout the year and the following are my findings. Most of this has already been posted by SB on his page. All my calcs were done using C fund data for stock trends.

Disclaimer: Remember folks I picked the periods from past history so the market did what I wanted. I am not a financial consultant or broker or any other financial professional. These are my interpretations of the results provided to you should you decide to experiment at your own risk!!

Downward trend market: I used initial allocations of 50% C, 15%C and 5%C. In all 3 senarios I performed <1% IFTs on down days to maintain allocation percentage which DCAs increasing shares. Up days no IFT was performed. The goal was to attempt to dollar cost average intial purchase price to break even sooner on the rebound.

The 50% and 15% scenarios did not reduce dollar cost significantly to warrant the moves. If you are expecting the market to go down G or F ruled in the past year. The 5% scenario did reduce the DCA significantly but I can’t come up with a real chain of events to make it useful. Going to G makes more sense to me.

I also ran some scenarios selling profits back to G on up days back to the initial contribution. While it did reduce to loss amount it was not significant enough to warrant staying in stocks. JMO folks.

Bottom line <1% IFTs into stocks is not real useful during a downward trend market.

<1% IFTs into F fund was 70% positive results. So in the future of this bear market, my first IFT of the month is going to have a 5 percent into F. What worked best was a combination. Down days IFT back to the previous percentage . Up days hold and the following day go up to the next percentage. Last day of the month sell back down to the original percentage or all so you pocket the profits in G. Lady has already had some success in this area but I’m not sure what her strategy was.

Upward trend market:

I used similar strategy as with the F fund. Accumulating shares on down days and moving up percentage following up days which also accululates shares. You would only use this if you found yourself in a rally period and no IFTs left. If you are stuck, <1% IFTs can help you beat the G fund. My scenarios beat G about 60% of the time and F about 40% with 5% in C. Any less than that and the dollar value for % change wasn't enough to beat G consistently. That being said I was running these models using past performance so I knew the numbers would go up. In real life you will have to risk a downtrend and possible loss.

That's it!! If I missed anything just ask. JB45
 
squalebear said:
Duty Time, but I wanted to touch base. My Safari left me without memory
of the entire event. This was what I had hoped for. Too soon to tell if the
experience will give me a long term trophy, but I'm hopeful. But for now, it
has resulted in a positive.
I'LL BE BACK IN THE MORNING ! :D
Click to expand...

Hey there duty bear. Good to see you smiling again. :cool:
 
justbizness45 said:
SB, I also posted this on my thread,

Hello everyone, I finally completed my analysis (if you want to call it that)of SB's intriguing <1% IFT discovery. So here it is:

I ran several 2 week scenarios for performing <1% IFTs from different periods throughout the year and the following are my findings. Most of this has already been posted by SB on his page. All my calcs were done using C fund data for stock trends.


That's it!! If I missed anything just ask. JB45
Click to expand...

JB, you're just as awesome as Squalebear. Thanks for putting the time in. Well spent.
 
squalebear said:
My Safari left me without memory
of the entire event. This was what I had hoped for.
Click to expand...

It's good to see ya posting big guy. :D My Safari left me without much memory of it either and that's just the way they should be. I got the T-shirt also, but I declined the photos of the trip.

CB
 
XL-entLady said:
SB, I'd better clarify. I wasn't hinting about you keeping up with your self-assigned analysis, although I do appreciate the information. I was just being happy that you were feeling better enough to be at a computer. Because when your cervical discs are acting up bigtime the last thing you want to do is keyboard. Been there, done that, got too many t-shirts. :rolleyes:

So great to know that you are feeling well enough to post! And good to hear about your safari update. Those big game hunts can be worth the price! :cool:

Lady
Click to expand...

I wasn't mistaken about what you meant. I tried (and failed) to use your
analogy to put a smile on your face as I was referring to my Cervical Disks
as well. Forgive me, I'm still in La-La Land half the time. Thursday I felt
great, Friday I was sore, Saturday I was back on the pills. They said the
first few days may happen that way. So I'm waiting to see a reversal in
the downward trend. (concerning my back). Hopefully, the wait won't be long.

Still trying to keep up ! Talk to ya soon !
 
justbizness45 said:
SB, I also posted this on my thread,

Hello everyone, I finally completed my analysis (if you want to call it that)of SB's intriguing <1% IFT discovery. So here it is:

I ran several 2 week scenarios for performing <1% IFTs from different periods throughout the year and the following are my findings. Most of this has already been posted by SB on his page. All my calcs were done using C fund data for stock trends.
Click to expand...

First I want to thank you for taking the time to look over the possibilities
and doing such a detailed analysis. I'm going to look over what you posted
and see how it all turned out. Thanks Again ! ;)
 
Ok, Ok, I'm Tooting My Own Horn ! I'm Starving For Attention !
For Today, I'm Allowed To ! I'm now 51 years old & ask for only
one Birthday Gift ! Don't Want No Cards, Don't Want No Letters !
All's I Want Is The N.F.C. Championship !
(not related to the National Finance Center)!​

GO EAGLES !​
 
happy_birthday_bear-1716.gif
 
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