Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Friday - January 09, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-01.43%.....C=...-01.32%...-00.04% (my figures)
DW.=-00.28%.....S=...-00.71%...
EFA=-03.01%......I=...-01.16%...EAFE..........+02.61%
AGG=-01.62%.....F=...+00.36%...
..........................G=...+00.06%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-01.43%....C=...-01.32%....-00.04%(my figures)
DW.=-00.28%....S=...-00.71%...
EFA=-03.01%.....I=...-01.16%....EAFE..........+02.61%
AGG=-01.62%.....F=..+00.36%...
.........................G=...+00.06%...

WHEN LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, BOTH THE EFA AND (I) FUND
ARE BOTH IN A DEFICIT SITUATION AGAINST THE EAFE. OBVIOUSLY,
THE EFA HAS THE GREATEST DEFICIT THEN THE (I) FUND. I'LL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THEM BOTH !

 

[Guest2]

Friday - January 09, 2009 (CORRECTED)

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-01.43%.....C=...-01.32%...-00.04% (my figures)
DW.=-00.28%.....S=...-00.71%...
EFA=-03.01%......I=...-01.16%...EAFE..........+01.45%%
AGG=-01.62%.....F=...+00.36%...
..........................G=...+00.06%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-01.43%....C=...-01.32%....-00.04%(my figures)
DW.=-00.28%....S=...-00.71%...
EFA=-03.01%.....I=...-01.16%....EAFE..........+01.45%
AGG=-01.62%.....F=..+00.36%...
.........................G=...+00.06%...

WHEN LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, BOTH THE EFA AND (I) FUND
ARE BOTH IN A DEFICIT SITUATION AGAINST THE EAFE. OBVIOUSLY,
THE EFA HAS THE GREATEST DEFICIT THEN THE (I) FUND. I'LL KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON THEM BOTH ! EAFE CORRECTION MADE !

 

[Guest2]

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09)+0.3154 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .2500 thru +.3500 High Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Low Level)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Monday - January 12, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-03.65%.....C=...-03.54%...-02.60% (my figures)
DW.=-03.15%.....S=...-03.56%...
EFA=-05.35%......I=...-03.07%...EAFE..........-00.42% Strange !
AGG=-01.10%.....F=...+00.63%...
..........................G=...+00.07%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-03.65%....C=...-03.54%....-02.60%(my figures)
DW.=-03.15%....S=...-03.56%...
EFA=-05.35%.....I=...-03.07%....EAFE..........-00.42% Strange !
AGG=-01.10%.....F=..+00.63%...
.........................G=...+00.07%...

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - January 13, 2009
The (I) Fund underperformed against the EFA by .37% which
resulted in a payback of $0.05 TSP Cents. In the the post that will
follow, you'll notice the EAFE is down by -3.77% on a YTD basis, as
opposed to the EFA and the (I) Fund. Both the EFA and the (I) Fund
are designed to reflect the YTD results of the EAFE. The differences
you see in all three was what prompted me to develope the O/D
Tracker to begin with. This year I've added the EAFE information to
allow me to gain perspective as the Funds are both in a "Deficit"
situation against the EAFE. But against one another, the (I) Fund is
still in a strong "Overpayment" situation. This can lead to confusion,
but will help me further my developement. Another added tidbit is
the fact that the EFA paid a Dividend at the end of 2008. This is
normally when its paid and represents a change in the share price
each year. It only gets more complicated from there.

Bottom Line: The Overpayment still needs to be paid. That means
the (I) Fund (just as it did today) will likely underperform the EFA
for in the short term. So when your looking at a +5% day in the
EFA, don't count on the (I) Fund to match the results, even though
its possible.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09)+0.3154 tsp cents
(01/13/09)+0.2532 tsp cents
(01/14/09)
(01/15/09)
(01/16/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .2500 thru +.3500 High Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Low Level)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - January 13, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-03.48%.....C=...-03.37%...-02.01% (my figures)
DW.=-02.15%.....S=...-02.57%...
EFA=-07.09%......I=...-05.22%...EAFE..........-03.77%
AGG=-00.94%.....F=...+00.54%...
..........................G=...+00.08%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-03.48%....C=...-03.37%....-02.01%(my figures)
DW.=-02.15%....S=...-02.57%...
EFA=-07.09%.....I=...-05.22%....EAFE..........-03.77%
AGG=-00.94%.....F=..+00.54%...
.........................G=...+00.08%...

 

[Guest2]

Circumstances might keep me off the MB for a few days. I'll do everything
I can to keep up with my daily posts and participation on the MB.

 

[justbizness45]

Circumstances might keep me off the MB for a few days. I'll do everything
I can to keep up with my daily posts and participation on the MB.

Good luck SB, keep us posted. We need you here!!

 

[Steadygain]

Circumstances might keep me off the MB for a few days. I'll do everything I can to keep up with my daily posts and participation on the MB.

Squalebear - just know that you are incredibly loved and admired.

Get your rest and do whatever you need to do - but DO take care and don't worry about us. Things have been fairly quiet lately anyway and I suspect 'the cloudy sky' will linger on...

 

[Guest2]

Thanks Everyone. I'm Off To The Races !

Last IFT for the Month !
Market Sucks !
91%(F) 3%(C) 3%(S) 3%(I)
(<1%IFT Level w/ Bonds)

Good Luck To Every1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nasa1974]

Thanks Everyone. I'm Off To The Races !

Last IFT for the Month !
Market Sucks !
91%(F) 3%(C) 3%(S) 3%(I)
(<1%IFT Level w/ Bonds)

Good Luck To Every1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Going to start working your <1% magic I see. Still working some scenerios. I will keep you up to speed.

 

[dannyboy]

Squalebear I'm flattered!!

Thanks Everyone. I'm Off To The Races !

Last IFT for the Month !
Market Sucks !
91%(F) 3%(C) 3%(S) 3%(I)
(<1%IFT Level w/ Bonds)

Good Luck To Every1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'm a little ways ahead of the bear on this move, but the bear is faster than this Boy? It's nice knowing sometimes the "pro's?" think the way I do, and vice-versa. I'll say that the losses have been less, but a loss is a loss.
I'm just going to hang out in the F for awhile. I made that same change on 1-8-09 in my db, but I saw it on this post which dated 1-12-09:

Re: Bear Cave ( Bull is Allowed! )
I'm already tapped out my IFT count again before even the first half of the month is gone. :embarrest: Oh Well, I keep a track of how all the funds had been doing my keeping a database logging in the previous day's results from going to govexec.com. You can't actively use the results for the current day using that, aka driving forward by looking in the rearview mirror. I've noticed for the last couple weeks, though that the F fund has consistently been giving a $0.01 up, whereas the rest of the funds have been helter skelter. So I'm at G-50,F-41, C,S,I-.03%'s. I know it can't get me mega rich but I won't keep sliding further into the 'doghouse'. I also am kind of uncertain about this, maybe someone out there may help, but with Obama planning to be investing in roads, infrastructure, etc. would this be a good time to jump into bonds? Today's my birthday and I just logged in for fun, no work for Dannyboy today. I'm just jogging at my alma-matter and weightfifting as much as possible.
Have a good day All.

 

[Guest2]

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09)+0.3154 tsp cents
(01/13/09)+0.2532 tsp cents
(01/14/09)+0.2913 tsp cents
(01/15/09)
(01/16/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .2500 thru +.3500 High Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Low Level)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday - January 14, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-06.71%.....C=...-06.59%...-05.63% (my figures)
DW.=-06.01%.....S=...-06.52%...
EFA=-10.90%......I=...-08.66%...EAFE..........-06.27%
AGG=-01.07%.....F=...+00.68%...
..........................G=...+00.09%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-06.71%....C=...-06.59%....-05.63%(my figures)
DW.=-06.01%....S=...-06.52%...
EFA=-10.90%.....I=...-08.66%....EAFE..........-06.27%
AGG=-01.07%.....F=..+00.68%...
.........................G=...+00.09%...

 

[justbizness45]

I think the overall trend for this month will be down. So overall I think your F move may pay off better than G this month. I jumped into stocks today when we went <840 S&P hoping for a bounce. 1.25% a month is the goal.

As far as your <1%'s I haven't found a good strategy/use in a downtrend market. Every downtrend scenario I ran they cost money and I couldn't beat the G fund. Good luck my friend.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I think the overall trend for this month will be down. So overall I think your F move may pay off better than G this month. I jumped into stocks today when we went <840 S&P hoping for a bounce. 1.25% a month is the goal.

As far as your <1%'s I haven't found a good strategy/use in a downtrend market. Every downtrend scenario I ran they cost money and I couldn't beat the G fund. Good luck my friend.

JB et al, spreading your 2 wk contribution across all the equities, F, and L funds is an interesting play and creates additional options. I.e., if you're all in G and have used your 2 IFTs, the 2 wk contribution will open all the other funds back up to you.

 

[XL-entLady]

As far as your <1%'s I haven't found a good strategy/use in a downtrend market. Every downtrend scenario I ran they cost money and I couldn't beat the G fund. Good luck my friend.

I used it to my advantage last month. I should have bought more F Fund with my last full December IFT. When I realized that, I was able to purchase a total of 8% more F Fund by the end of the month using the <1% moves. Made a decent chunk of change doing it too. And if I hadn't known about those moves I'd have been stuck in IFT jail cussing my lack of foresight.

Lady

 

[KevinD]

And if I hadn't known about those moves I'd have been stuck in IFT jail cussing my lack of foresight.

What is this "foresight" of which you speak? :laugh: I certainly have none...

 

[justbizness45]

JB et al, spreading your 2 wk contribution across all the equities, F, and L funds is an interesting play and creates additional options. I.e., if you're all in G and have used your 2 IFTs, the 2 wk contribution will open all the other funds back up to you.

True, but if you think the market will downtrend the rest of the month, with the exception of F fund, I can't beat the G fund in the scenarios I've run. Which is the only reason to try. Now if you the market uptrends then the scenarios I've run beat G about 60% of the time and F about 40% with 5% in C. Any less that and the dollar value for % change isn't enough to beat G consistently.

 

[justbizness45]

I used it to my advantage last month. I should have bought more F Fund with my last full December IFT. When I realized that, I was able to purchase a total of 8% more F Fund by the end of the month using the <1% moves. Made a decent chunk of change doing it too. And if I hadn't known about those moves I'd have been stuck in IFT jail cussing my lack of foresight.

Lady

You are correct m'Lady, I should have been more specific. I was referencing C/S/I on the downtrend market comment. F is the place to be on the downtrend senario calcs I've run. Also congrats on your foresight to have left some in F and made some green. I didn't see that benefit until I ran the calcs.