Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Monday - January 05, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=+02.68%.....C=...+02.74%...+0.2214% (my figures)
DW.=+03.07%.....S=...+02.76%...
EFA= -00.33%......I=...+00.77%...
AGG=+00.96%.....F=... -00.46%...
...........................G=...+00.03%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+02.68%....C=...+02.74%....+0.2214%(my figures)
DW.=+03.07%....S=...+02.76%...
EFA= -00.33%.....I=...+00.77%...
AGG=+00.96%.....F=...-00.46%...
..........................G=...+00.03%...

I never made a IFT today and I'm waiting for a bigger dip to give
me a better entry point. If it doesn't occur and a rally starts to
form, I'll be itching to join the party. My allocations are;

90.67%(G) 3.13%(C) 3.15%(S) 3.05%(I)

If I was out of Regular IFT's, I'd have the option to raise my risk
to 4% in the (C)(S) and (I) on any dip. But I wait on the sidelines
with a fully loaded gun (2 unlimited IFT's) and will try to be patient
enough to pick a smarter entry into the risk funds. That decision is
made on a daily basis at 11:45am. Good Luck !

 

[Guest2]

Good Morning Everyone. Some gut feelings concerning the current market
are doing battle with Economic reality. I think employment reports will be
the cause of any significant move (up or down) for the short term. This
Friday and next Thursday will tell the tail. I believe the information will
drive the market back down and wipe out any gains we see to that point.
Just remember, we can always get "Better Then Expected" bad news.
That seems to excite the market and would make my last statement look
silly. Will next weeks Earnings Season smack us back down below our
current 900 level in the S&P500. So what will it be ? Geeez, its enough
to give someone a headache ! Until I get a better grip on things, I'm
going to sit and wait. I have minimum at risk and have the option to go
in huge later or bail out. Its nice to have options !

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

I have been testing an XL program to try out the <1% move. It still needs a lot of tweeking. I'm not an expert at XL so it is coming out close to the figures I expect but not on the money. Currently a lot of manual input. But I will keep on trying.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

I have been testing an XL program to try out the <1% move. It still needs a lot of tweeking. I'm not an expert at XL so it is coming out close to the figures I expect but not on the money. Currently a lot of manual input. But I will keep on trying.

Thats great Nasa. I'm limited in Excel Formula's myself. I got the basics
down pat when using Works Spreadsheet, but Excel doesn't appear to
be as user friendly as Works. I'd love to take a look at it when you come
close to your spreadsheet goal. Please include 3rd Grade Instructions. :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

The Fund Managers add another third of a percent to the YTD
difference between the (I) Fund and the EFA. On a YTD basis,
the EFA is +0.74% and the (I) Fund is +2.17% YTD. Here's a
big kick in the butt; the MSCI EAFE INDEX is +2.15% YTD. As
you can see, the (I) Fund is the most accurate reflection of
the INDEX and the EFA lags seriously behind on a YTD basis.
The only conclusion I can draw from this fact is as follows;
The O/D Tracker says the Fund Managers are responsible for
the 0.25 TSP Cent difference when comparing it against the
EFA. But seeing the INDEX information leads to a different
conclusion. It's the EFA Managers who created such a large
overpayment. When comparing the (I) Fund to the INDEX,
the difference comes to less then a penny. I can no longer
blame Barclays for the Overpayment as its all about the
EFA Fund Managers lagging miserably behind . :blink:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)
(01/08/09)
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - January 06, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=+03.48%.....C=...+03.53%...+0.3508% (my figures)
DW.=+04.93%.....S=...+04.65%...
EFA=+00.74%......I=...+02.17%...EAFE..........+02.15%
AGG=+00.39%.....F=...-00.15%...
...........................G=...+00.04%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+03.48%....C=...+03.53%....+0.3508%(my figures)
DW.=+04.93%....S=...+04.65%...
EFA=+00.74%.....I=...+02.17%......EAFE..........+02.15%
AGG=+00.39%.....F=...-00.15%...
..........................G=...+00.04%...

 

[alevin]

SB that analysis of EFA vs. EAFE vs. I is awesome work. Only you with your dedication could have figured that one out. Have you taken a look at IEE on Sharpcharts lately? It's their version of EAFE ETF but behaving very strangely relative to EFA intraday the past 2 days (gone up and touched 200-MA 2 times now), tells me something very different with composition of the ETF but no clue what.

 

[Guest2]

SB that analysis of EFA vs. EAFE vs. I is awesome work. Only you with your dedication could have figured that one out. Have you taken a look at IEE on Sharpcharts lately? It's their version of EAFE ETF but behaving very strangely relative to EFA intraday the past 2 days (gone up and touched 200-MA 2 times now), tells me something very different with composition of the ETF but no clue what.

iShares and others have different fees and dividends they pay. I remember
reading somewhere that one paid a 4% dividend. Each manage their funds
as they see fit. Just as Barclays manages the (I) Fund for the TSP. But the
goals remain the same; To closely reflect the YTD returns of the MSCI EAFE
INDEX.

 

[Guest2]

I'm holding onto my current allocations and letting it ride. Fridays Economic
Reports on employment might bring the Entry Point I'm looking for.
Down on Thursday, then down on Friday could give me enough to
jump in at 50% for Mondays trading. I'm not sure if I'll hedge the
move with some (F) Fund, but I'll do my best to keep everyone
ontop of my thoughts as they come into light.

 

[Guest2]

One last thought, don't be surprised if the (F) Fund goes relatively
unchanged vs. the AGG and the (I) Fund taking a bigger hit to the
down side vs. the EFA.:worried:

Right now, the AGG is down big time (-1.25%)
the EFA is currently down by (-0.96%)

Good Luck ! Its time to check out the Mortgage Rates for a possible
future Refinance while I stand at 5.75% and the Interest rates are
looking quite attractive right now.

 

[Steadygain]

Its time to check out the Mortgage Rates for a possible future Refinance while I stand at 5.75% and the Interest rates are looking quite attractive right now.

Squalebear you might want to run that by Birchtree (and me) before starting all over - especially if your current rate is 5.75%

You may be a lot better off staying with what you have if you've got 10 years or less to pay it off.

I talked about getting a loan for just over 3% - and using that to pay off the balance of my home - with my wife and father. Now of course they are fairly insignificant compared to you and Birch; but both instantly made me realize it's not worth the hassel and I've got better advantages leaving things where they are.

food for thought

 

[Guest2]

Some gut feelings concerning the current market are doing battle with Economic reality. I think employment reports will be the cause of any significant move (up or down) for the short term. This Friday and next Thursday will tell the tail. I believe the information will drive the market back down and wipe out any gains we see to that point. Just remember, we can always get "Better Then Expected" bad news. That seems to excite the market and would make my last statement look silly.

Not too silly after all. The News came from all fronts and none came close
to being "better then expected". The market took a dump as a result. I'm
not thinking that we'll see a rebound tomorrow, but should we, that will
tell volumes about the current Bear Rally which "might" have ended today.

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear you might want to run that by Birchtree (and me) before starting all over - especially if your current rate is 5.75%

You may be a lot better off staying with what you have if you've got 10 years or less to pay it off.

I talked about getting a loan for just over 3% - and using that to pay off the balance of my home - with my wife and father. Now of course they are fairly insignificant compared to you and Birch; but both instantly made me realize it's not worth the hassel and I've got better advantages leaving things where they are.

food for thought

I really want to touch base with you and continue this topic, but right
now, its time for me to hit the hay. We'll touch base soon, I'm certain!

 

[nnuut]

Squalebear you might want to run that by Birchtree (and me) before starting all over - especially if your current rate is 5.75%

You may be a lot better off staying with what you have if you've got 10 years or less to pay it off.

I talked about getting a loan for just over 3% - and using that to pay off the balance of my home - with my wife and father. Now of course they are fairly insignificant compared to you and Birch; but both instantly made me realize it's not worth the hassel and I've got better advantages leaving things where they are.

food for thought

Steady, 6 years ago I found a fixed rate home equity loan for 4.25%, I applied and the term was for 5 years. I used the loan to pay off my mortgage which the payoff was $60,000. Paid off last January now I own the house free and clear. Bought the house in 1995 at 8%, it would have been paid off in 2025 with the 30 year loan I had! do the math, what kind of return did I get on the $200 dollars a month more that I had to pay to satisfied the loan? WOW!! Interest on loans are on the way down, think about it!! What is 17 years, $1,000 a Month loan = $204,000, I paid $72,000!!!!:laugh:

 

[Steadygain]

Steady, 6 years ago I found a fixed rate home equity loan for 4.25%, I applied and the term was for 5 years. I used the loan to pay off my mortgage which the payoff was $60,000. Paid off last January now I own the house free and clear. Bought the house in 1995 at 8%, it would have been paid off in 2025 with the 30 year loan I had! do the math, what kind of return did I get on the $200 dollars a month more that I had to pay to satisfied the loan? WOW!! Interest on loans are on the way down, think about it!! What is 17 years, $1,000 a Month loan = $204,000, I paid $72,000!!!!:laugh:

Norm, I totally agree.

I started off with 8.125% 30 yr - then went to 6% (15 yr) and lastly to 5% (15 yr).

Bottom line is 'DOING THE MATH'

My hunch (but it's only a hunch) is he's got less than 10 yrs at 5.75%. If he's got 6 yrs left - refinances for 15 year at 5% it's an extra 9 yrs...

Paying off your house is a mightly hefty increase in your family income. That is the only debt I've had AND having an extra $1,000 a month will add up fast.

 

[nnuut]

Mine was a 5 year loan no extra cost, no closing, nothing because it was a home equity loan. Best deal I ever made!!

 

[Guest2]

I left Countrywide and went to Wells Fargo in September of 2005 by
refinancing my mortage. I went from a 7.25% (30yr Fixed) to a 5.75%
(30yr Fixed) but used up every bit of equity I could get as my 1894
3 story Victorian was falling apart before our eyes. Heater/AC, Siding
Basement Waterproofing, Windows, Paint, Porch Repair and new roof
was socked back into our money pit. Before renovations, the home was
appraised at $230k in 2005 and I currently have a $167k balance with
26.33 years left on the loan.

My thoughts were to lower my monthly payment of $1017 (P&I). I figured
that the break even point, concerning the cost of refinancing, would take
approximately five years to accomplish (if I refinance again). Some day,
the house would be left to my wife and eventually to my son. But without
a balance as I'm carrying more then enough Life Insurance to pay the
balance off, when its my time to go.

So, there you have it ! Every single aspect ! So what do you guys think ?

 

[wv-girl]

I left Countrywide and went to Wells Fargo in September of 2005 by
refinancing my mortage. I went from a 7.25% (30yr Fixed) to a 5.75%
(30yr Fixed) but used up every bit of equity I could get as my 1894
3 story Victorian was falling apart before our eyes. Heater/AC, Siding
Basement Waterproofing, Windows, Paint, Porch Repair and new roof
was socked back into our money pit. Before renovations, the home was
appraised at $230k in 2005 and I currently have a $167k balance with
26.33 years left on the loan.

My thoughts were to lower my monthly payment of $1017 (P&I). I figured
that the break even point, concerning the cost of refinancing, would take
approximately five years to accomplish (if I refinance again). Some day,
the house would be left to my wife and eventually to my son. But without
a balance as I'm carrying more then enough Life Insurance to pay the
balance off, when its my time to go.

So, there you have it ! Every single aspect ! So what do you guys think ?

Although I'm not one of your brothers, would a sis do?(for now)

Do the figures on a 15 yr fixed. I guess it would depend on your age, salary, etc., but for around 100-300 more per month versus the amt of a 30 year, it would cut off 15 years of being in debt. Right now the 15 yr has a lower rate than a 30 year. Besides you would save a ton of interest. In a 30 yr loan you end up paying for the house about 2 1/2 times the principal. Legalized extoration--I call it.
Anyway, my 2 cents. Good luck.

 

[Guest2]

Although I'm not one of your brothers, would a sis do?(for now) ALWAYS !

Do the figures on a 15 yr fixed. I guess it would depend on your age, salary, etc., but for around 100-300 more per month versus the amt of a 30 year, it would cut off 15 years of being in debt. Right now the 15 yr has a lower rate than a 30 year. Besides you would save a ton of interest. In a 30 yr loan you end up paying for the house about 2 1/2 times the principal. Legalized extoration--I call it. Anyway, my 2 cents. Good luck.

Thank you for the info my "sister" and your always welcome to put your
2 cents in.

 

[Guest2]

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2526 tsp cents
(01/08/09)
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Mid-Range Level)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------