Squalebear's Account Talk

2009 - STOCK MARKET HOLIDAYS
New Year's Day - January 1, 2009
Martin Luther King Jr. Day - January 19, 2009
President's Day - February 16, 2009
Good Friday - April 10, 2009
Memorial Day - May 25, 2009
Independence Day - July 3, 2009 (Observed)
Labor Day - September 7, 2009
Thanksgiving Day - November 26, 2009
Day after Thanksgiving - Early close 1:00 p.m.
ChristmasDecember 25, 2009​

:)
 
Preliminary Results of using my <1%IFT method based on market prices;

If I did a Buy & Hold on 12/11 and put subsequent contrib's in the (G):
+0.1545112%

If I Bailed out of the Risk Funds on 12/11 and went 100% (G):
+0.1594525%

If I stayed in and worked the Risk Funds using <1%IFT's:
+0.7408561% :nuts:

I won't be doing a final "actual tally" as I must spend New Years
with a bunch of inmates and bearly have enough time to update
the O/D Tracker.

Bottom Line: The 15 days in December was profitable, but the last
couple of days helped a great deal (+0.59%). This can not be used
as a system as your final results will be based on speculative timing
and a whole lot of Luck. But I'll take 3/4 % over the (G) anyday.
Those who went into the risk funds at with greater percentages
faired a heck of alot better then anything documented above. But
if you find that kind of risk an issue and want to fair better then just
sitting in the (G),,,,,you have another option. And that is what this
has all been about,,,, Options ! ;)
 
2008 is finally over. Happy New Year Everyone ! The Fund Managers
take a huge payback at the expense of the (I) Funders. The EFA
outperformed the (I) Fund by a whopping -1.2447%. Even though
this was huge, it was within probability and drove the O/D Tracker
close to the "Black" area (by a penny) which is their ultimate goal.
Once again the (I) Fund closely reflects the EFA YTD returns and
that is the basis in which the O/D Tracker was developed. On my
next post you'll see how the Indexes faired YTD against the TSP. ;)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....

(12/22/08)+0.0938 tsp cents
(12/23/08)+0.1459 tsp cents
(12/24/08)+0.0841 tsp cents
(12/25/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(12/26/08)+0.1083 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents :D
(01/01/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/08)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin) :D
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Wednesday - DECEMBER 31, 2008

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -38.49%.....C=... -36.99%....-09.23% (my figures):cheesy:
DW.= -40.00%.....S=... -38.32%....
EFA= -42.85%......I=... -42.43%...
AGG=+02.99%.....F=...+05.45%...
...........................G=...+03.75%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.78%....C=...+01.07%....+03.71%(my figures):embarrest:
DW.=+04.33%.....S=..+04.68%...
EFA=+07.50%.....I=...+07.66%...
AGG=+05.84%....F=...+03.73%...
..........................G=...+00.24%..
 
5 straight days of green makes going into the Market mean, I'll wait for a
better entry point for massive investment. The only down fall is I can not
touch my <1%IFT allocation of 91-0-3-3-3 or it will count towards the new
January limits. I'm gonna let it ride until the next dip. ;)
 
I"m pretty puzzled with the market looking way up at 12:05pm today. I just didn't expect yesterday's rally to keep going today like it appears to be...
 
5 straight days of green makes going into the Market mean, I'll wait for a better entry point for massive investment.I'm gonna let it ride until the next dip. ;)

I'm planning on making some very limited jumps as well. Kind of hoping for 5 straight days of red beginning mid week with another 700 point drop on the last day (say a Tuesday) to go in for 3 days. This year my short moves to high risk will be rare and quick.

The only down fall is I can not touch my <1%IFT allocation of 91-0-3-3-3 or it will count towards the new January limits.

That's excellent Squalebear and since the SB Formula continues to persist it's #1 for maintaining safety with gradual high risk investment. I forget how the formula works but will likely use it in the months to come. GL and hope all is well.
 
I"m pretty puzzled with the market looking way up at 12:05pm today. I just didn't expect yesterday's rally to keep going today like it appears to be...

Volume being a bit light, this appears to be a continuation of this 6% move
up. I seriously expect it to go back down this week. The week before
the Inaugaration could very well be the start of a amazing move in the
direction we all hope for. Even more amazing then the 6% we're seeing
right now. I'm in on any little dip that comes across the boards. ;)
 
That's excellent Squalebear and since the SB Formula continues to persist it's #1 for maintaining safety with gradual high risk investment. I forget how the formula works but will likely use it in the months to come. GL and hope all is well.

HI !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! STEADY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its nice to know my Big Brother is out there and taking it one day at a time.
As far as the <1%IFT method, there's a couple of us looking into some
type of formula to utilize (if any can be had) while using the darn thing.
A couple things hold true since its inception. It allows for more IFT's
then "2 and Done". It can (at a small risk) beat the (G) Fund Returns
on a short term basis. Last but not least, it requires daily focus on the
market and how it affects each individual fund your in. It's nothing more
then a alternative, a option, where none appeared to exist. For that, I'm
glad its helped some of our members make a few more $$$$$. Hey, keep
me posted and read up on some of my previous posts. It might help by
giving you a better feel for doing a <1%IFT, when the time comes. :)
 
UPDATES STILL PENDING @ 8:30PM - UPDATES
WILL HAVE TO GET DONE LATER TONIGHT OR
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. :mad:


Friday - JANUARY 02, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.00%.....C=...+00.00%...+00.00% (my figures)
DW.=+00.00%.....S=...+00.00%...
EFA=+00.00%......I=...+00.00%...
AGG= -00.00%.....F=....-00.00%...
...........................G=...+00.00%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+00.00%....C=...+00.00%....+00.00%(my figures)
DW.=+00.00%....S=...+00.00%...
EFA=+00.00%.....I=...+00.00%...
AGG= -00.00%.....F=...-00.00%...
..........................G=...+00.00%...
 
UPDATES STILL PENDING @ 8:30PM - UPDATES
WILL HAVE TO GET DONE LATER TONIGHT OR
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. :mad:

Welcome to the first trading day of 2009 and the last day of the
week. Since the O/D Tracker is soley based on YTD %'s differences,
the 2008 information is published for simple trend observation. The
figures carry no wait from this day forward being we're looking at
the Year-To-Date accumulative %'s. I trust everyone had a great
New Year and now its time to get busy. If we focus enough on the
future, without looking back at the past, we might accidently make
up for the heartache we went through. But that can't be our focus.
I wish everyone the best of luck. We have a clean slate to work with
and together, we'll be better of for it. ;)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/22/08)+0.0938 tsp cents
(12/23/08)+0.1459 tsp cents
(12/24/08)+0.0841 tsp cents
(12/25/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(12/26/08)+0.1083 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)
(01/06/09)
(01/07/09)
(01/08/09)
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Friday - JANUARY 02, 2009

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/22/08)+0.0938 tsp cents
(12/23/08)+0.1459 tsp cents
(12/24/08)+0.0841 tsp cents
(12/25/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(12/26/08)+0.1083 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents :worried:

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)
(01/06/09)
(01/07/09)
(01/08/09)
(01/09/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin) :worried:
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Friday - January 02, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=+03.16%.....C=...+03.20%...+0.2453% (my figures) :(
DW.=+02.53%.....S=...+02.36%...
EFA=+01.29%......I=...+02.06%...
AGG= -00.62%.....F=....-00.51%...
...........................G=...+00.02%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=+03.16%....C=...+03.20%....+0.2453%(my figures) :(
DW.=+02.53%....S=...+02.36%...
EFA=+01.29%.....I=...+02.06%...
AGG= -00.62%.....F=...-00.51%...
..........................G=...+00.02%...
 
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (EFA) PriceWatch Alert For 1/2/2009 - Covered Call Risk Ranking Declines to 3 Keys

Posted on Friday, January 02, 2009 8:08 AM
iShares MSCI EAFE Index (PCX: EFA) closed yesterday at $44.86. So far the stock has hit a 52-week low of $35.53 and 52-week high of $79.22. The proprietary Key Risk Ranking for EFA has declined from a 4 KEY Low Relative Risk to a 3 KEY Moderate Relative Risk. This Key Ranking is determined daily and is a measure of the relative risk for a conservative trade on this underlying stock with a targeted 4.86% return (35.49% annualized for comparison purposes). This ranking looks at many factors related to the stock and associated option contracts. The Key ranking is intended as a guide for investors researching this underlying stock.

http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/726810
 
HI !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! STEADY !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Its nice to know my Big Brother is out there and taking it one day at a time. :)

Squalebear,
I am but a humble Planet within your Universe !!

My dear brother, as I was going to sleep last night I reflected back on this message and it made me laugh outloud with joy and delight.

THANK YOU for being exactly who you are. Things are getting better and I am very grateful for a brighter outlook.

Take care my friend.

Steady
 
Although future surgery is not out of the picture, my injury has become
a little more tolerable. I wanted more relief and asked the doctor for a
stronger Anti-Inflamitory. The result put me on my knees praying for
my chest pains to stop and not let it be a heart attack. He answered
my prayers by allowing it to be severe heartburn which broke me into
a fear of kicking the bucket. One day at a time, right ! I'm now out of
Leave and face going to work on a daily basis in less then ideal condition.
In a Prison setting, no less. I have no choice. It's LWOP otherwise. If
surgery becomes the ultimate reality, the thought of medical retirement
might need to be researched to protect my family. But I don't want to
get ahead of myself. I have to take this "one day at a time". I try every
day to stay positive and focus on things that bring me an escape from
the pain. Your posts always manage to do just that for me. Making some
money in the market doesn't compare to the relief I get from your written
word. For that, I wish to thank you. Chin up ! Go EAGLES ! ;)
 
Although future surgery is not out of the picture, my injury has become a little more tolerable.

I'm in the dark. What injury??

I wanted more relief and asked the doctor for a stronger Anti-Inflamitory. The result put me on my knees praying for my chest pains to stop and not let it be a heart attack.

Anti-inflammatories can tear the stomach up - cause some heart burn or worse.

He answered my prayers by allowing it to be severe heartburn which broke me into a fear of kicking the bucket.

He is now allowing you to have more LEAVE - For free with no strings attached.

One day at a time, right ! I'm now out of Leave and face going to work on a daily basis in less then ideal condition. Do you honestly think I would let my little brother be forced to work when he needs a little more time off??
In a Prison setting, no less. I have no choice. It's LWOP otherwise. Listen Squalebear I have over 240 hours right now and I get over 5 weeks of AL a year. AL is like money - it is meant to be given and used as the need arises. PM me your name and where you work and I'll have HR transfer a week or two.

If surgery becomes the ultimate reality, the thought of medical retirement
might need to be researched to protect my family. But I don't want to
get ahead of myself. I have to take this "one day at a time". Let's start with today - I can give you at least 2 weeks but I don't want it wasted; I want to know they will really count for something.

I try every day to stay positive and focus on things that bring me an escape from the pain. Your posts always manage to do just that for me.
PM me the info I need or you'll have a far greater pain from me kicking your ass. Seriously let me help out - I've got more than enough AL and nothing would honor me more - I PROMISE I really mean that.
Making some money in the market doesn't compare to the relief I get from your written word. For that, I wish to thank you. Chin up ! Go EAGLES ! ;)

Let your wife see how much your brother loves you.

I'll check the PMs tomorrow when I get to work. Trust me SB, we'll make sure you get the help you need.
 
Monday: November construction spending is due shortly after the start of trading. Spending is expected to have fallen 1.2% in November after falling 1.2% in the previous month. Monthly truck and auto sales figures are due throughout the session. A hearing into the Bernard Madoff scandal -- which cost investors at least $50 billion - gets underway in the House on Monday.

Tuesday: The Institute for Supply Management's survey of the services sector of the economy is due shortly after the start of trade. The December index is expected to have dipped to 37 from 37.3 in November, remaining deep in recessionary territory. The government's November factory orders report is due around the same time. Orders are expected to have fallen 2.6% after dropping 5.1% in October. Data on November pending home sales, a leading indicator of housing market activity released by the National Association of Realtors, is due out at 10 a.m. ET. In October, he number of homes under contract to be sold fell by a mere 1% year over year. Analysts had expected pending sales to slip by 3.6%.

Also, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its Dec. 15-16 policy-making meeting. At that meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee established a target range for the federal funds rate of 0% to 0.25% and said it would likely keep rates at that level for some time.

Wednesday: The House Financial Services Committee meets to discuss how the next administration might make use of the remaining TARP funds, amid criticism that the $700 billion bailout has not been working. Also Wednesday, a House panel holds an economic recovery plan hearing that will feature testimony from some of the nation's top economists.

Thursday: The nation's chain stores will be releasing December sales reports, giving investors a better sense of how badly the consumer has been hit amid the recession. Separately, the Fed is slated to release its monthly consumer credit report at 3 p.m. ET. Consumer credit, a measure of consumer borrowing, for November is forecast to show an increase of $0.5 billion. In October, consumer credit fell by $3.6 billion.
 
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