Squalebear's Account Talk

[mojo]

Well done SB. That is a great letter!

 

[Guest2]

Thanks everyone. I certainly don't believe this is a Top Story for the
media, but I hoped that it would draw more attention during this slow
news period. Ya never know. I just want 2009 to be better then 2008.
In fact, its a requirement for the next 6 years. Its in my character to
fight injustice. Even if it means fighting the Fed. If I do nothing, then
I should just shut up and be happy with our current circumstances. I'm
here to tell you, that's not going to happen. The solution for saving
someone from their own stupidity (I read that somewhere) was not to
hamper everyones freedom and ability to manage their money. It should
have been left alone, while those smarter then me made a all out effort
to educate the TSP Participants of the risks behind investing. We all see
the Federal Campaign posters throughout the Government each year at
this time. I've never even seen an effort, posters or emails which one
would consider educational concerning the TSP. That should have been
the focus. WoW, RANT-RANT-RANT ! Ok, I'm done ! :embarrest:

Time for the O/D Tracker Update !

 

[Guest2]

With only 3 (or is it 2-1/2) Trading Days left in 2008, the amount of
"Green" you see below can only mean one thing. The O/D Tracker
is showing that the Fund Managers have found their comfort zone.
I could be proven wrong in the next three days, but it now appears
that the (I) Fund will outperform the EFA by somewhere between
0.40% and 0.80% YTD. The (I) Fund is currently outperforming the
EFA by .788% and only needs to drop down a penny or two to reach
the "Met Goals Area" of the O/D Tracker. But that means the EFA is
going to outperform on up & down days and the Overpayment will
will become less. I'm hoping for nothing less then solid up days and
keeping the O/D Tracker in the Green, then Blue, then Red. Now that
would be sweet ! Best of Luck to everyone ! Have a Great Weekend !


.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/22/08)+0.0938 tsp cents
(12/23/08)+0.1459 tsp cents
(12/24/08)+0.0841 tsp cents
(12/25/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(12/26/08)+0.1083 tsp cents

THE KEY:

------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

FRIDAY - DECEMBER 26, 2008

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -40.56%.....C=... -39.19%....-09.77% (my figures)
DW.= -42.46%.....S=... -41.00%....
EFA= -45.27%......I=... -44.49%...
AGG=+02.47%.....F=...+05.38%...
...........................G=...+03.71%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-02.62%.....C=... -02.45%....+03.15%(my figures):worried:
DW.=+00.04%.....S=..+00.13%...
EFA=+02.95%.....I=...+03.81%...
AGG=+05.30%....F=...+03.66%...
..........................G=...+00.20%..

 

[Guest2]

I did a <1%IFT at 11:30am which will drive a low 4% amount up to 5% into
each of the risk funds. I'm thinking we'll be off the current lows but end
negative by days end. Tommorrow is hopefully a rebound back to today's
opening levels and I'll see a slight gain. On December 31, 2008 I'll be doing
a analysis and comparison between the actual returns I recieved and the
"would have been" results should I have;

a) Stayed in the Funds with a Buy & Hold Strategy.
b) Totaly bailed to the (G) Fund all together.

As you may recall, I started this <1%IFT method at 88-3-3-3-3 on 12/11/08.

Tomarrow, I'll be at 85-0-5-5-5. We'll soon see if the motivation to close
2008, becomes abit stronger and a profitable reality. I hope everyone had
a great holiday and a great weekend.

 

[Guest2]

Just as I did in December, I'm working on a January Plan to entering the
Risk Funds at a risky 100% level when a great buying opportunity presents
itself. My second IFT could switch into a highly leverage position into the
(F) Fund, afterwhich, I would begin DCA'ing down into another <1%IFT
position. The rest of the month would consist of achieving the goal of
beating the (G) Fund Returns for the remainder of the month of January.

 

[KevinD]

I did a <1%IFT at 11:30am which will drive a low 4% amount up to 5%

<snip>


Tomarrow, I'll be at 85-0-5-5-5.

Same here on the <1% IFT and the 85/0/5/5/5.

Great minds...

Just as I did in December, I'm working on a January Plan to entering the
Risk Funds at a risky 100% level when a great buying opportunity presents
itself. My second IFT could switch into a highly leverage position into the
(F) Fund, afterwhich, I would begin DCA'ing down into another <1%IFT
position. The rest of the month would consist of achieving the goal of
beating the (G) Fund Returns for the remainder of the month of January.

Sounds like a plan. I may just tag along. :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

Same here on the <1% IFT and the 85/0/5/5/5. Great minds...
Sounds like a plan. I may just tag along. :nuts:

Great Kev, the next two days will consist of 2009 re-positioning for most
investors. I don't know what the GMAC announcement will bring by days
end tomorrow, however, after hours trading leaned towards the positive.

I'm convinced that the 2nd week of January will prove to be profitable
right through the Obama Block Party. Then, its up to Obama to make a
strong Stimulus announcement to carry us through the rest of the month.
Anything less then stregnth in his announcement or ignoring the Housing
Market might result in my taking the money and run.

O/D Tracker Update Next ! Good day for the (I) Fund !

 

[Guest2]

While the EFA ended practically unchanged today (+.02%) the Fund
Managers granted my wish and gave the (I) Fund a nice (+.99%)
gain. That was a poultry .97% additional gain and raised the debt
we owe in Overpayments to the "Red" area of the O/D Tracker that
translates into $0.1839 tsp cents. But wait a minute ! With 2 trading
days left, are we worried about such a high debt? NO !!!! All of the
figures will reset come Thursday and all things will become zero.
One other tidbit that I noticed is the similarities between the risk
funds YTD % differences. The following percentages compare the
Indexes vs. the TSP Funds. Remember, their goals are to reflect one
another by years end. Here is how close they reflect each other;

(C) +1.43% (S) +1.55% (I) +1.33%

Fairly consistant, wouldn't you say ! Like I said in Fridays post, I'm
thinking that the Fund Managers have found their comfort zone and
don't believe the YTD differences will change to any great extent.


.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/22/08)+0.0938 tsp cents
(12/23/08)+0.1459 tsp cents
(12/24/08)+0.0841 tsp cents
(12/25/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(12/26/08)+0.1083 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents

THE KEY:

------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Monday - DECEMBER 29, 2008

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -40.79%.....C=... -39.36%....-09.78% (my figures)
DW.= -43.43%.....S=... -41.88%....
EFA= -45.26%......I=... -43.94%...
AGG=+02.89%.....F=...+05.55%...
...........................G=...+03.74%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-02.99%.....C=... -02.72%....+03.14%(my figures):embarrest:
DW.=-01.68%.....S=... -01.38%...
EFA=+02.97%.....I=...+04.84%...
AGG=+05.73%....F=...+03.83%...
..........................G=...+00.22%..

 

[Guest2]

The time is ticking and 2008 will soon come to an end.
My father had a favorite saying while I was growing up.

He always said;
" LIVE AND LEARN or LIVE AND BURN"

There's plenty to be greatful for in 2008, but, not a
whole heck of alot concerning the Stock Market and
the THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN. But look we must as the
future will not be based on what was, but what will
be. Come January 1st, 2009 we can't look back and
try to recover from the previous years loses. We
must focus on how well we can do with a fresh slate
and set our goals accordingly. Don't forget that a 1%
gain each month would equal a +12% by years end.
That my friends, is nothing to sneeze at ! I will take
full advantage of what I've learned in 2008 and use
it to do better this year coming up. In the 80's, the
group "Boston" wrote a song and album called "Don't
Look Back" and I officially declare it my Anthem for 09.

 

[nasa1974]

The time is ticking and 2008 will soon come to an end.
My father had a favorite saying while I was growing up.

He always said;
" LIVE AND LEARN or LIVE AND BURN"

There's plenty to be greatful for in 2008, but, not a
whole heck of alot concerning the Stock Market and
the THRIFT SAVINGS PLAN. But look we must as the
future will not be based on what was, but what will
be. Come January 1st, 2009 we can't look back and
try to recover from the previous years loses. We
must focus on how well we can do with a fresh slate
and set our goals accordingly. Don't forget that a 1%
gain each month would equal a +12% by years end.
That my friends, is nothing to sneeze at ! I will take
full advantage of what I've learned in 2008 and use
it to do better this year coming up. In the 80's, the
group "Boston" wrote a song and album called "Don't
Look Back" and I officially declare it my Anthem for 09.

SB my Jedi Master lets kick some 2009 bootie.

 

[XL-entLady]

Squale, my friend, as we go into the new year I just wanted to thank you again for discovering the <1% gig. This month I used it to double my holdings in F Fund after I was out of IFTs. I didn't put any trust into F Fund holding its strength throughout the month until after I had used both of my full IFTs. Before I learned of your rebalancing trick I would have been stuck at that point. But I've been able to make rebalancing moves to increase my F Fund holdings from 5% to the current 12% of my account. So I've been able to make a reasonable chunk of change that wouldn't be in my account without the <1% bit.

I didn't track my rebalancing moves on the tracker, because that seems to cause confusion, and I didn't mention them on my account thread because I've been a little under the weather. But the moves happened in my real world account where it really matters, and my account is healthier because of them.

So thanks again, buddy! We all appreciate you!

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Squale, my friend, as we go into the new year I just wanted to thank you again for discovering the <1% gig. This month I used it to double my holdings in F Fund after I was out of IFTs. I didn't put any trust into F Fund holding its strength throughout the month until after I had used both of my full IFTs. Before I learned of your rebalancing trick I would have been stuck at that point. But I've been able to make rebalancing moves to increase my F Fund holdings from 5% to the current 12% of my account. So I've been able to make a reasonable chunk of change that wouldn't be in my account without the <1% bit.

I didn't track my rebalancing moves on the tracker, because that seems to cause confusion, and I didn't mention them on my account thread because I've been a little under the weather. But the moves happened in my real world account where it really matters, and my account is healthier because of them.

So thanks again, buddy! We all appreciate you!

Lady

Thank you Lady, just send the FRTIB instructions on how to send me a
paycheck for doing their jobs and we're all set. Maybe we should force
them to donate a portion of their checks to charity for failing to do the
right thing and educating the TSP Participants. I won't hold my breathe
waiting for the commission. (LoL). :nuts:

Knowing the <1%IFT helped increase your gains, in lieu of bailing to the
(G) Fund is good enough for me. Obviously, the method won't work unless
you stay ontop of the TSP everyday and make good (sometimes lucky)
decisions during the process. So, much of the benefit you received would
be based on your abilities and effort. Congratulations on that ! For the
Retiree who wishes to do better then the MTD (G) Fund Returns, it can
be valuable as long as it meets the individuals predetermined tolerance
for possible loses. (once the 2 unlimited IFT's been exhausted).

 

[Guest2]

SB my Jedi Master lets kick some 2009 bootie.

I got my boots on my friend ! Steel toes and all ! :cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

If this is a gauge of things to come, I noticed a few things concerning the
possible end of day results within the (I) Fund. As the O/D Tracker shows,
an Overpayment exists. That leans towards the (I) Fund underperforming
the EFA daily returns, even on a up day. Currently, the EAFE is up +.46%
but the EFA is up +1.26%. This also leans towards the (I) Fund doing abit
worse then the EFA. Thank goodness the EFA is up over 1% and we hope
it closes the same. This would be a guess. But, if the market closed right
now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the (I) Fund up only +.84%.

So, at 11:30am one should keep that little tidbit in the back of their minds
when deciding to make a move concerning the (I) Fund. My wish is for the
(I) Fund to match the EFA returns with little to no payback. Good Luck to
us all. Stranger things have happend.

 

[mamikin]

Squalebear, I don't post much, but just want to echo Lady's thanks for discovering the <1% possibility. I've used it to my advantage as well.

Glad that you seem to be feeling better - that or the painkillers are doing their job. Let's hope that 2009 brings us all greater health, happiness, and a better return on our TSP accounts!

 

[pigeonguy]

I also want to reiterate the thanks for clueing us into the <1% xfers int FCSI. I've managed to move 10% out of C over the last 15 days (not sure if that's good or bad :nuts.

Wonder how long it will take to shut that off?

Wishing you and your family a Happy New Year ... and take care of yourself

Mark

 

[Guest2]

Mam & PG,,,,, thanks for saying so.

Currently at; 85%(G) 0%(F) 5%(C) 5%(S) 5%(I)

I made a <1%IFT to lower my risk after bumping it up to 5% in hopes that
today would end positive. This will take some profit off the table as well.

Today's <1%IFT will leave me as follows for Wednesday 12/31/08;
91%(G) 0%(F) 3%(C) 3%(S) 3%(I)

 

[Gumby]

Mam & PG,,,,, thanks for saying so.

Currently at; 85%(G) 0%(F) 5%(C) 5%(S) 5%(I)

I made a <1%IFT to lower my risk after bumping it up to 5% in hopes that
today would end positive. This will take some profit off the table as well.

Today's <1%IFT will leave me as follows for Wednesday 12/31/08;
91%(G) 0%(F) 3%(C) 3%(S) 3%(I)

squalebear,

Looks like making all those IFT's is going to make FRTIB's computers work overtime. Good luck