Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

squalebear,

Looks like making all those IFT's is going to make FRTIB's computers work overtime. Good luck

(LoL) Gumby, I'm just a (L) Fund style Investor ! :nuts: If rebalancing hurts,
then they should go back to unlimited IFT's and lower the costs they've
increased through restricting 3.9 million TSP Participants.

Funny, when I tell my friends they have increased the costs and taking
profit out of their pockets by restricting everyone, they turn and scratch
their heads. Then the Big Question comes across their lips; I thought you
were doing that with frequent trades, what happened ?

I tell them; "The Truth Happened" !

p.s. I guess they better do another computer upgrade and get rid
of the multi-million dollar "Windows98" system their currently using.
If they start now, maybe they'll accomplish it before the New
Millenium. Hey, I got an idea, they can call it a "WindowsME" system.

 

[momacs]

Does a person have to wait until there is a % to be able to move with the >IFT?
Yesterday I moved an extra 1% into the S fund because it was the only one that had a none whole number (3.02%) so I went up to 4 on it, but the rest were at whole numbers so I didn't think I could move any of them.
Thanks

 

[Gumby]

Daily rebalancing is the only way to make any money in this volatile market unless FRTIB adds some bear funds. It would be interesting to know exactly how the FRTIB does the rebalancing for all the funds. With the IFT limit in by noon EST, their slow computers can surely calculate how many shares to take from Peter's account and add to Paul's. Surely within a couple of hours they will know exactly how many shares of each fund Barclay's will need to acquire by the close of the market. This is where I think Barclays get to day trade with millions of dollars of TSP contributions. Barclays also knows how many more shares they can loan to the bears for a fee to sell short.
Some shares like GM are hard to find to borrow and sell short. Scottrade is out.....maybe they can borrow from Barclays.

If Scottrade charges $7 to make a trade, I don't see how it could possibly cost Barclays anymore than this to rebalance my TSP account.

With the market up today, I am thinking I should have went 100% back to G today. I only made a partial jump and will try your daily rebalance tomorrow if this market has any legs left before noon.

Why not call their new computer system RebalanceME

 

[Guest2]

does a person have to wait until there is a % to be able to move with the >ift?
Yesterday i moved an extra 1% into the s fund because it was the only one that had a none whole number (3.02%) so i went up to 4 on it, but the rest were at whole numbers so i didn't think i could move any of them.
Thanks

momacs, after i update the o/t tracker, i'm gonna answer that
question. Thanks for asking ! Others will benefit too !

 

[Guest2]

why not call their new computer system rebalanceme :d

very good gumby ! I like it !

 

[Guest2]

Allow me to pat myself on the back for guessing what the Fund
Managers might do today. It couldn't have worked out better. Yes,
the Overpayment was paid today, but only by -0.05 TSP CENTS. This
kept the Overpayment in the "Red Area" of the O/D Tracker and the
(I) Fund underperformed the EFA by only -.42%. Not alot when you
consider the (I) Fund gained +2.58% today. Tomorrow is the last
trading day of 2008 and I don't think we'll get so lucky. My gut tells
me the Overpayment will be paid by abit more then today. That will
lean towards the (I) Fund Underperforming the EFA and possibly
driving the "Red" into the "Blue" area of the O/D Tracker. Either way,
I'm finally glad 2008 is over. Good Luck to us all !

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/22/08)+0.0938 tsp cents
(12/23/08)+0.1459 tsp cents
(12/24/08)+0.0841 tsp cents
(12/25/08)+0.0000 tsp cents(HOLIDAY)
(12/26/08)+0.1083 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - DECEMBER 30, 2008

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -39.34%.....C=... -37.87%....-09.37% (my figures)
DW.= -41.80%.....S=... -40.13%....
EFA= -43.62%......I=... -42.49%...
AGG=+02.93%.....F=...+05.75%...
...........................G=...+03.74%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-00.62%.....C=... -00.34%....+03.56%(my figures):blink:
DW.=+01.20%.....S=...+01.59%...
EFA=+06.06%.....I=...+07.54%...
AGG=+05.77%....F=...+04.02%...
..........................G=...+00.23%..

NICE MTD % FOR THE (I) FUND !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Guest2]

Does a person have to wait until there is a % to be able to move with the >IFT?
Yesterday I moved an extra 1% into the S fund because it was the only one that had a none whole number (3.02%) so I went up to 4 on it, but the rest were at whole numbers so I didn't think I could move any of them.
Thanks

There is no short answer. Even if the % that is shown happens to be a
whole number (3.00) when you do a <1%IFT on the TSP Website, it still
effects that fund. You seem to understand that a 3.15% reading can be
pumped up to 4.0%. But what happens when a different fund shows a
3.0% at the same time? Its important for you to understand the affect
on whole numbers. The best way is through an example;

Monday: You start off with the following percentages;
95%-0%-2%-2%-1%

Lets make believe that all funds went up +0.25% on Monday.
If you DIDN'T do a <1%IFT your account would look like this
on Tuesday;94.25%-0%-2.25%-2.25%-1.25% Thinking
the next day will be positive, this will give you greater gains
if your right, because you have more money in the funds.

If you DID do a <1%IFT and entered the same exact %'s
that the TSP website showed on Monday, then on Tuesday
you'll see the same percentages; 95%-0%-2%-2%-1%
However, the TSP will still enact the IFT. They will take all the
shares and sell them, configure your final account balance,
then redistribute your money at the percentages you ask for.
On a down day, this will buy more risk shares cheaper. On a up
day, this will lock a portion of your gain back into the (G).

More often then not, you'll see a mixture of percentages that
makes up your portfolio. But we can't just do One Fund IFT's.
Each fund requires a whole number or zero. So you must look
very close at how each fund is effected by doing a <1%IFT.
You might have the ability to pump the (C) Fund up to the
next highest whole number, while dumping all of your (S) back
into the (G). That is the hardest part when making the ultimate
decision. You must know how the <1%IFT will affect each fund
individually based on "what you believe" the end of the day will
look like. Surprises do happen at the end of the day.

One last thing to remember. If you do not do a <1%IFT and your fund
percentage drops below the next lowest percentage range, your now
stuck in that range. Example; 3.01% drops to 2.99%,,,, you can no
longer pump the 3.01% up to 4%. The maximum you can pump it up
to would now be 3%.

I hope I answered your question. It can be confusing at first. Good Luck !

 

[Guest2]

May 2009 Bring Us Peace and Prosperity !
Heck, I'll settle for Peace and enough to pay my bills into retirement !​

​

The argument being waged today is whether we start strong on January
5th all the way through the Obama Block Party up until the Honeymoon is
over. We come back to our senses sooner then we'd like and 2009 holds
a continuation of painful economic reality.​

OR​

Do we see a slow, early sell-off until May, then revel in a new Bull Market
sometime after the Second (2nd) Quarter, which totaly goes against the
notion of "Sell in May and Go Away"​

If the market looks 6-9 months ahead of the days trading, doesn't
that mean we've seen the worse that the market had to offer and we can
now look forward to nothing but green? Something tells me thats not quite
the case. Not yet anyway. I lean towards seeing yet another shoe to drop
but I just don't know when that will happen. Trillions sit on the sideline
and for pretty good reasons. Maybe we'll see a Big Time drop before the
Inauguration and a rally running up to it. But when will the market run out
of sellers? When will the Bull get the nod? These are the questions that
dominate most 2009 debates in the media.​

Jobless Claims Report is due in a hour and forty minutes.
Better then expected or expected "bad news" will jolt the market into
a rally. Worse then expected bad news could result in this day being a
typical 2008 drop. Heck, this number could be priced in already and we
might see a late day rebound off the lows. No matter what the Market
holds, its never boring and never what I expect. ​

 

[CountryBoy]

I have the same hopes you have for 2009 SB, but like you I still think we're a year away at least. Everyting I've read says the market will be at the bottom when we have total capitulation. I thougth we were almost there a couple of months ago, but the Gov't stepped in with another walfare/bailout and propped the market back up.

I don't think we'll see the bottom until the Gov't stops these artificial bailout rallies and let the market runs it's course. The more money they print and pour into the system the worse inflation will be and the longer and more painful the recovery will take.:worried:

Just my $.02.

Have a safe and Happy New Year,
CB

 

[Guest2]

I thougth we were almost there a couple of months ago, The more money they print and pour into the system the worse inflation will be and the longer and more painful the recovery will take.

One battle at a time my friend. Overting a Depression and gaining control
over our spiraling economy had to be a priority. Anything that reared its
ugly head, that could squash the effort (ie...autos) needed to be taken
care of as well. We came so close to total collapes, that I had a Withdraw
Slip in hand and was prepared to use it at a moments notice. Boy did it
get ugly. I'm also pleased that the Gov't announced yesterday that it will
be purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities. Because of the depth & speed
of the solutions, I guarantee the reversal to offset inflation will come at
a record pace and sooner then we would like as well. It'll be years before
we see a Market that resembles the one we once knew. Hopefully, we
won't be Japan "the sequel". (JMHO)

I wish you the Best of all New Years too ! Together, we'll do pretty damn
good and kick the crap out of the Risk Funds. But in 2009, the risk funds
better kick the crap out of the (G) and (F) to make it all worth while.

 

[Guest2]

<1%IFT UPDATE
As of Tuesday, December 30,2008 I was positioned at my <1%IFT start level for 14 days. I started on the 11th with a allocation of 88-3-3-3-3.​

I had three choices at start; Buy & Hold, Bail or <1%IFT.
I chose the <1%IFT Method.​

I didn't do a comparison of a Buy & Hold Strategy. I believe my returns
would have been better off if I had, but again, I didn't check that yet.​

I did do a comparison vs. me bailing at 100% back to the (G) Fund.
Here's a few things that the figures show;​

A) IF I BAILED, I WOULD HAVE GAINED +0.15% IN THE (G)
B) IF I BAILED, I WOULD BE LOCKED OUT UNTIL 1/5/09
C) BUT I STAYED, I GAIN +.52% OVER AND ABOVE
THE REMAINING MONTHLY (G) FUND RETURNS.​

At least for this month (December) I was able to benefit by this method.
Luck, Timing and Good Decisions were necessary to accomplish this.
If you figure out how long it would take for the (G) Fund to accumulate a
+.52% gain, you'll see that the 14 days were extremely beneficial. ​

 

[nnuut]

That makes it a sure thing!! They will stop this as soon as they can. Should have kept it under our hats.

 

[Gumby]

<1%IFT UPDATE

As of Tuesday, December 30,2008 I was positioned at my <1%IFT start level for 14 days. I started on the 11th with a allocation of 88-3-3-3-3.​

I had three choices at start; Buy & Hold, Bail or <1%IFT.
I chose the <1%IFT Method.​

I didn't do a comparison of a Buy & Hold Strategy. I believe my returns
would have been better off if I had, but again, I didn't check that yet.​

I did do a comparison vs. me bailing at 100% back to the (G) Fund.
Here's a few things that the figures show;​

A) IF I BAILED, I WOULD HAVE GAINED +0.15% IN THE (G)
B) IF I BAILED, I WOULD BE LOCKED OUT UNTIL 1/5/09
C) BUT I STAYED, I GAIN +.52% OVER AND ABOVE
THE REMAINING MONTHLY (G) FUND RETURNS.​

At least for this month (December) I was able to benefit by this method.
Luck, Timing and Good Decisions were necessary to accomplish this.
If you figure out how long it would take for the (G) Fund to accumulate a

+.52% gain, you'll see that the 14 days were extremely beneficial. ​

Glad it worked out. I may have to try this method.

 

[Guest2]

That makes it a sure thing!! They will stop this as soon as they can. Should have kept it under our hats.

Fear not my Bandaged Smiley Friend ! Its never was the amount of
times you do a IFT, it was the dollar amounts involved in each trade
that made the Powers Above so angry. If this method is looked at
as "insideous behavior" then they'll be admitting that the (L) Fund
concept is too costly. After all, thats all I'm doing, isn't it ? Rebalancing !

I know what you mean though, sooner or later, someone will try & screw
this up as well. Trying to better off my retirement outlook should stop.
I didn't stop in March and paid a $teep price ! I won't stop now ! I will
find everyway possible to help my retirement and share my findings with
those who matter; The TSP Participants !

 

[Guest2]

Glad it worked out. I may have to try this method.

It only worked out in comparison to a Bail Out to the (G).
I'm not sure how well it did in comparison to simply holding
my position of 88-3-3-3-3 until now. Like I said, the +6%
in the (I) Fund alone may have resulted in a much better
gain. But it is an option that you should become aware of.

 

[nnuut]

I just thought, knowing the powers up in the Big TSP In The Sky learn that members can use this method to make more than the "G" Fund with NO RISK they will MONKEY, call it dishonest, despicable (Daffy Duck), and take inappropriate action. AGAIN!

 

[Guest2]

I just thought, knowing the powers up in the Big TSP In The Sky learn that members can use this method to make more than the "G" Fund with NO RISK they will MONKEY, call it dishonest, despicable (Daffy Duck), and take inappropriate action. AGAIN!

Monkeys tend to fling pooh ! Gotcha ! Besides, it's Duck Season ! :nuts:

By the way, there is risk of loses while practicing this method !

 

[momacs]

So let me see if I have this right. Like today, the market is going up. Say I have the S fund at 2.89% and I think that it's going to go over 3% at the close of the day. Since I have to make my move by 11am, is it possible to skip on up to 4% on that day?

 

[Guest2]

So let me see if I have this right. Like today, the market is going up. Say I have the S fund at 2.89% and I think that it's going to go over 3% at the close of the day. Since I have to make my move by 11am, is it possible to skip on up to 4% on that day?

No, you have to work with what you currently have. If you have 2.89% you have a couple of options;

1) Lower the Fund to what ever you want.
2) Make a <1%IFT and raise it to 3.00%.
3) Do nothing at all and let it ride.

The reason (3) is important to consider is because todays returns (being
positive) might drive that percentage up to 3.01% for tomorrow. No
matter what the market does tomorrow, you have the same options. Only
this time, you will then have the ability to do a <1%IFT and pump it up to
4.00% or select one of the other two options.

If you decided on option (2) then no matter what you did today, tomorrow
you will see 3% in the (S) Fund. If the market went up today, your likely to
have less money in the (S) tomorrow. If the market went down today, your
likely to have more money in the (S) Fund then you would have had if you
simply did nothing.

You should look at each fund individualy and determine what will happen to each
should you decide to round a fund up.