Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Hb sb - sry its l8 "e"

I've been tied up the last few.
HAPPY BIRTHDAY and many more to you.
DannyBoy

Happy belated birthday buddy~!
Humm, how did I almost forget? :blink:

Thank you so much for your kindness and including me in your thoughts ! You've given me reason to take pause and count my Blessings ! This when it's all too easy to dwell on the fact that I have more days behind me, then in front. Every single member here at TSPTalk, have shown that it's more important to live for today and enjoy life as it comes. Even when our financial goals take such a beating, you all find the time to spread goodwill and hope. This is what I call, the true nature of our web based family. How lucky am I to be a part of this unique group. Let me tell you, I'm Damn Luck ! Thank you for allowing me to be a part of this family.

 

[Guest2]

I find it no coincidence that just before the Financial Crisis began its
strangle hold on our retirement funds, the Overpayment between
the EFA and the (I) Fund was kept at similar levels that we've been
seeing as of late. This to shall pass, but know this. The (I) Fund is
currently reflecting a "Deficit" against the EAFE. The (I) Fund is down
-14.04% YTD while the EAFE is currently down -10.88% YTD. This is
good for the future returns of the (I) Fund as they must "closely
reflect one anothers YTD returns". So against the EAFE, I'm sure we'd
all love to see a 3% bounce back up to bring the %'s back in sync.
As far as the EFA goes, it is currently down -16.18% and has the
need for a 5% bounce to get back into sync.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents (HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09)+0.3154 tsp cents
(01/13/09)+0.2532 tsp cents
(01/14/09)+0.2913 tsp cents
(01/15/09)+0.2082 tsp cents
(01/16/09)+0.2075 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/19/09)+0.0000 tsp cents (HOLIDAY)
(01/20/09)+0.2632 tsp cents
(01/21/09)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .2500 thru +.3500 High Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Low Level)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Tuesday - January 20, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-10.85%.....C=...-10.72%...-06.56% (my figures)
DW.=-09.93%.....S=...-10.40%...
EFA=-16.18%......I=...-14.04%...EAFE..........-10.88%
AGG=-01.09%.....F=...+00.21%...
..........................G=...+00.13%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-10.85%....C=...-10.72%....-06.56%(my figures)
DW.=-09.93%....S=...-10.40%...
EFA=-16.18%.....I=...-14.04%....EAFE..........-10.88%
AGG=-01.09%.....F=..+00.21%...
.........................G=...+00.13%...

THE YTD FIGURES CERTAINLY MAKES THE PRICES LOOK VERY ATTRACTIVE
AT THIS POINT, BUT WE'RE ALSO HEARING THE "D" WORD USED ALITTLE
BIT MORE TOO. IS ENTERING NOW THE RIGHT TIME OR IS IT ONCE AGAIN
LIKE CATCHING A FALLING KNIFE ? REMEMBER, THE GOAL IS TO BE MORE
RIGHT THEN WRONG, BUT A MISTAKE AT THIS TIME CAN BE COSTLY !

 

[JTH]

all love to see a 3% bounce back up to bring the %'s back in sync.

Thanks for the heads up. It makes it kind of hard to bail out of I knowing they owe us 3%

 

[Guest2]

Thanks for the heads up. It makes it kind of hard to bail out of I knowing they owe us 3%

This is kinda hard to explain, but my first thought after reading your post is;
What if they don't pay us 3%, instead, the EAFE drops 3% without the
(I) Fund moving in either direction. After all, it is possible no matter how
much I hate saying it and that would close the gap as well.

 

[Guest2]

Ok folks, its a "Brave New World" out there. We have a new President of
the United States with a large following and a Honeymoon Period going for
him. We have a Treasury Secretary being scrutinized for his Tax mistakes
(he'll be voted in anyway) with nobody of value sitting in the wings. The
Stock Market took a crap yesterday and threatens to go even lower. I'm
not convinced that the "Green" Futures mean a "Green" Close. The BANKS
are not fixed yet,,,,,geez. Unemployment is leading us into Depression and
TARP/STIMULUS are the only solutions being talked about. "AGAIN".

Bottom Line: After last years results, how Brave must investors be in this
Brave New World. Throwing emotion out of the window only leaves the Brain.
Our big problem appears to be that our Central Nervous System has
been ripped from our spine (personalized pun intended) and the Brain can't
function without it. I've got a spine alright, but I'm going Brain-Dead !

 

[Guest2]

The EAFE is currently down on a Intraday Basis at -01.27% 8:02am

 

[Guest2]

EFA 01/20/0939 -7.32%

Composite Indicator Trend Spotter TMSell
Short Term Indicators 7 Day Average Directional IndicatorSell
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo ChannelSell
20 Day Moving Average vs PriceSell
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator Buy
20 Day Bollinger BandsSell

Short Term Indicators Average: 60% - Sell
20-Day Average Volume - 30289711
Medium Term Indicators
40 Day Commodity Channel IndexSell
50 Day Moving Average vs PriceSell
20 - 100 Day MACD OscillatorSell
50 Day Parabolic Time/PriceSell

Medium Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell
50-Day Average Volume - 36610539
Long Term Indicators
60 Day Commodity Channel IndexSell
100 Day Moving Average vs PriceSell
50 - 100 Day MACD OscillatorSell

Long Term Indicators Average: 100% - Sell
100-Day Average Volume - 32681580

Overall Average: 88% - Sell
Price Support Pivot Point Resistance 37.60 36.49 38.12 39.75


http://www.tradingday.com/tbs.html?http://quotes.barchart.com/texpert.asp?sym=EFA&code=BTDY

 

[Guest2]

EFA Pre-Market is trading at 38.31 per share with volume at 28,670

 

[Guest2]

EAFE Closed down -.70%
EFA is currently up +4.12%

 

[Guest2]

Just when I think the Market might be looking up (maybe),,,, I turn on the
TV (CNBC) only to hear a student ask Jim Cramer if Barclays Dividend is a
safe bet. Cramer's response is what concerns me a great deal;

"No, Barclays is in terrible trouble right now"

Ok, now what do we do ? If its not the market, Its the Fund Managers ?

Is there any difference between Barclays, PLC and BGI ?

What are the risks of being in anything related to Barclays or its Subsid's ?

Any commentary or opinions are welcomed !

 

[WorkFE]

Kind of seen that coming. I am sure they are not alone.
My wife's fund manager is ML. Talk about tough love.

 

[Guest2]

Kind of seen that coming. I am sure they are not alone.
My wife's fund manager is ML. Talk about tough love.

Tough Love, Indeed ! The only Fund we have to protect ourselves from
a Barclay's failure is the (G) Fund. Unless our retirement funds fall under
the $250,000 FDIC protection. I'm not even sure of that !

 

[XL-entLady]

Just when I think the Market might be looking up (maybe),,,, I turn on the
TV (CNBC) only to hear a student ask Jim Cramer if Barclays Dividend is a
safe bet. Cramer's response is what concerns me a great deal;

"No, Barclays is in terrible trouble right now"

Ok, now what do we do ? If its not the market, Its the Fund Managers ?

Is there any difference between Barclays, PLC and BGI ?

What are the risks of being in anything related to Barclays or its Subsid's ?

Any commentary or opinions are welcomed !

The FRTIB board meeting minutes from meeting before last (I think) mentioned vaguely that there was a contingency plan in place. Our only option other than G Fund is to trust the FRTIB really does have the plan and that it is a good one. I can't even stand to joke about our chances for TARP funds.

I'm planning on selling all but 2% of every fund except G, but I'm going to sell on strength rather than just bail tomorrow. And that's something I was already planning to do. I'm not sure this news would have made me take that selling action if it hadn't already been planned.

For what it's worth.
Lady

 

[Guest2]

Big Time Payback comes and hits the (I) Fund right where it hurts !
The (I) Fund underperforms against the EFA by a whopping 1.03%
or a full $0.1266 TSP Cents. The EAFE ended down -11.50% YTD and
is now closer in reflecting the (I) Funds YTD%.

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(12/29/08)+0.1839 tsp cents
(12/30/08)+0.1604 tsp cents
(12/31/08)+0.0608 tsp cents
(01/01/09)+0.0000 tsp cents (HOLIDAY)
(01/02/09)+0.1093 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/05/09)+0.1607 tsp cents
(01/06/09)+0.2059 tsp cents
(01/07/09)+0.2915 tsp cents
(01/08/09)+0.1973 tsp cents
(01/09/09)+0.2681 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/12/09)+0.3154 tsp cents
(01/13/09)+0.2532 tsp cents
(01/14/09)+0.2913 tsp cents
(01/15/09)+0.2082 tsp cents
(01/16/09)+0.2075 tsp cents

.....DATE..........YTD TSP CENTS.....
(01/19/09)+0.0000 tsp cents (HOLIDAY)
(01/20/09)+0.2632 tsp cents
(01/21/09)+0.1737 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
+ .2500 thru +.3500 High Overpayment, (Payback Imminent)
+ .1500 thru +.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Elevated Payback)
+ .1000 thru +.1500 Medium Overpayment (Flip - A - Coin)
+ .0500 thru +.1000 Low Overpayment, (Low Level)
+ .0000 thru +.0500 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
-.0000 thru-.0500 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
-.0500 thru-.1000 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
-.1000 thru-.1500 High Deficit (Mid-Range Level)
-.1500 thru-.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[pogo]

i could be wrong but wasn't it mention in other posts that we are seperate from barclay banking and mutual funds.

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday - January 21, 2009

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX=-06.98%.....C=...-06.84%...-06.62% (my figures)
DW.=-05.80%.....S=...-06.20%...
EFA=-12.08%......I=...-10.72%...EAFE..........-11.50%
AGG=-01.61%.....F=...-00.36%...
..........................G=...+00.13%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX=-06.98%....C=...-06.84%....-06.62%(my figures)
DW.=-05.80%....S=...-06.20%...
EFA=-12.08%.....I=...-10.72%....EAFE..........-11.50%
AGG=-01.61%.....F=..-00.36%...
.........................G=...+00.13%...

 

[Guest2]

i could be wrong but wasn't it mention in other posts that we are seperate from barclay banking and mutual funds.

I can't remember what I had for dinner tonight, but I'm sure your right.
It looks like I'll have to do a search later tonight. Thanks alot Pogo !

 

[Guest2]

The FRTIB board meeting minutes from meeting before last (I think) mentioned vaguely that there was a contingency plan in place. Our only option other than G Fund is to trust the FRTIB really does have the plan and that it is a good one. I can't even stand to joke about our chances for TARP funds.

I'm planning on selling all but 2% of every fund except G, but I'm going to sell on strength rather than just bail tomorrow. And that's something I was already planning to do. I'm not sure this news would have made me take that selling action if it hadn't already been planned.

For what it's worth.
Lady

Thanks Lady, I didn't see your post as I'm reading backwards right now.
I'll be back during my lunch break and catch-up. Ciao !

 

[nasa1974]

The FRTIB board meeting minutes from meeting before last (I think) mentioned vaguely that there was a contingency plan in place. Our only option other than G Fund is to trust the FRTIB really does have the plan and that it is a good one. Lady

The contingency plan is in the September meeting minutes "Preparing for an Emergency Transfer of TSP Assets". It could take up to 3 weeks to get all of our money transfered to a new investment manager, but the majority of our funds would be transfered in 3 days.