Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Hey SB,

Got a minute? Take a look at the P&F Chart School thread. I'd like your opinion on those thoughts. TIA.

James has always been one of the guides I use and agree with his analysis
concerning the S&P trending to the 1365 range. My thought is the 1370's.
But not as early as this week. I see the USM lower by early next week.
Somewhere around the 19th wouldn't surprise me. It's one of the reasons
your seeing me trickle out of my (C) and (S) Funds. I love the P&F chart
thread, there's a lot of experience behind them charts ! Thanks to James !

 

[Guest2]

It looks like Foghorn hit the Nail on the Head with his "most excellant"
timing into the (S) Fund on the 9th. Congratulations on some great $
returns $ Bro !

 

[Guest2]

DEFICIT ACCUMULATION:
(5/12/08) +.258% -0.05 tsp cents
(5/13/08) - .324% -0.13 tsp cents
(5/14/08)
(5/15/08)
(5/16/08)

THE KEY:
-.05 thru -.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
+.00 thru +.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
+.10 thru +.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin) :worried:
+.16 thru +.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)

 

[GGal]

Hey SB,

Looks like to me on the tracker you've made 3 moves in May? Can we do that? Looks like on the 3rd one it would not have counted, except for the 1% thing.

Thanks
GGAL

 

[Guest2]

Hi Ggal, My first two (2) IFT's were unrestricted to any fund.
The next one was lowering my amounts in the C,S,I,F back
into the (G). That can be done as often as you would like.
This is how it played out;

May 1st - (G) 100% (Starting Point)
May 5th - (I) 100% (1st IFT)
May 7th - (G)30% (C)30% (S)20% (I)10% (F)10% (2nd & Last unrestricted)

The rest of my moves MUST go back into the (G)

May 9th - (G)50% (C)30% (S)20% (took F and I to the G)
May 13th- (G)54% (C)31% (S)15% (lowered S by 5% to G)

Hope this helps :cheesy:

 

[GGal]

My confusion then, is here:

I see your 3rd IFT on May 13, because you increased C from 30% to 31%.

But, hey, if they took it, they took it!

GGAL

 

[GGal]

Oh. I went back up several messages. You said it appears rounding up from 30.03 to 31 is acceptable by the software.

Has anyone tested the software by trying to do more than a round up?

I wonder what would have happened if you had tried to do 32% in C.

GGAL

 

[Guest2]

Oh. I went back up several messages. You said it appears rounding up from 30.03 to 31 is acceptable by the software.

Has anyone tested the software by trying to do more than a round up?

I wonder what would have happened if you had tried to do 32% in C.

GGAL

Ggal, they must allow you to move 100% of your money out of any given
fund to the (G). Since I had 30.03% of my money in the (C), they MUST
allow a "round up". Otherwise, they would force you to keep the .03% in
the fund. If you incurred a lose on that .03%, then they would open up
a liability issue concerning a forced lose. And yes, the increase to 32%
was unacceptable and rejected by the software. So the "round up" will
only become acceptable up to the next whole percentage.

..... 30.03% to 31.00%
..... 10.15% to 11.00%
..... 25.97% to 26.00%

 

[luv2read]

Oh. I went back up several messages. You said it appears rounding up from 30.03 to 31 is acceptable by the software.

Has anyone tested the software by trying to do more than a round up?

I wonder what would have happened if you had tried to do 32% in C.

GGAL

Hey GGal,

Yes, NASA did try. See this post.

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=163874&postcount=236

Think of the new IFT system as 2+G. You have two unrestricted moves to any fund, including G. After that, you are restricted to unlimited moves to the G fund.

 

[Guest2]

Today, risk appears to payoff and there's a lot of happy members today.
At 11:05am, I'm thinking about taking some $$$$ slices off the table again

Currently, I'm 54%(G) 31%(C) 15%(S)

 

[Guest2]

Just did a IFT as follows;

Currently: 54%(G) 32%(C) 15%(S)

COB Today: 80%(G) 10%(C) 10%(S)

Don't be surprised if I pull the other 20% out by COB Friday. Good day
or bad, if I must trickle to the (G), the penny is due on Monday.This
will leave me in (G) at 100% from the 19th until the 31st. Of coarse,
each day will infuence my decision until Friday. Stay Tuned !

 

[nsurf9]

Maybe we can get 3000 TSP members to make a trickle move every day of the month back to "G." Let see, that would be ~20 x 3000 = or 6000 moves.

I bet Long, the Board, and their attorney would whisle a different tune, if their salaries were tied to enabling TSP members' to be proactive and maximize their investment, instead of straight jacketting it and all but distroying members' ability to be proactive, for themselves. Yes, I hope the Board is monitoring this!!!

 

[Guest2]

I'm sure 99.9% of the membership share your view, I know I do.
It's a hard pill to swallow. Yet, it is what it is and now we must
focus on achieving maximum gains in spite of the limitations. That
my friend, will take team work, luck and a very big bull with some
very sharp horns.

We can do it. Some of us die hards refused to submit to their whims.
Some of us paid the price through mail restrctions in April. But best of all,
some of us reaped nice gains in February and March by ignoring them and
have a pretty nice YTD figure to show for it. Kinda of like, "Take That Mr.
Thrift Board". Not everyone was as fortunate and still face an upward
battle to recoup. That does not sit well with me. I've always been one to
look forward instead of back and soon came to realise the following;

Because reality proved to be unchangable, Many members are working
on alternatives, reevaluating time frames and looking into new ideas.
It's the right thing to do, its a way to fight back. It's what we do best.

Of coarse, I'm still waiting on that video, maybe I'm better at something else. :nuts:

 

[nasa1974]

Maybe we can get 3000 TSP members to make a trickle move every day of the month back to "G." Let see, that would be ~20 x 3000 = or 6000 moves.

nsurf9,

Interesting idea but probably to hard to coordinate.


Tried my fourth IFT today. 3rd IFT results can be seen here:
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=163874&postcount=236
I am 55G, 2F, 11C, 11S & 21I. I tried moving 1% to G and 1% to I, no good. 2% to G and 1% to I, no good. 3% to G and 1% to I, no good. So I cancelled the IFT. I am guessing that it was to soon to try since my allocations all ended in .00. My 3rd IFT was only yesterday. I am guessing that if I wanted to only move 1% into the G it would have let me. But that will be another day. Hope everybody makes money today.

 

[Guest2]

I am guessing

Your absolutely right Nasa, .00% won't cut it. The balance
MUST end with .01% thru .99% to be capable of rounding up.

 

[nasa1974]

It was worth a try. Unless you want to go into "G" only you can't do back to back moves.

 

[GUCHI]

SB
your comments in this post are on point. i just wanted to add 1 more aspect. those inexperienced tspers like myself are scared to make a move ,since the restrictions will not allow for mistakes, so we sit and wait and wait and wait !!! thanks for everybody on the board you all are very inspiring !!!!
gl

Because reality proved to be unchangable, Many members are working
on alternatives, reevaluating time frames and looking into new ideas.
It's the right thing to do, its a way to fight back. It's what we do best.

Of coarse, I'm still waiting on that video, maybe I'm better at something else. :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

Those inexperienced tspers like myself are scared to make a move ,since the restrictions will not allow for mistakes, so we sit and wait and wait and wait !!! thanks for everybody on the board you all are very inspiring !!!! gl

Guchi, Thank you for the kind words. The members on this board show a
great deal of respect for one another. It couldn't work otherwise. Not just
what we do, but the website itself. Tom's got this thing cooking!

Now about the inexperienced TSPer's. If your an old fart like me and have
time left in service going against you, there's good reason to be extremely
cautious. One can not absorb tremendous loses without time to recover.
Still, your risk is truly manageable. If the (G) Fund is going to give you a
no-risk, etched in stone return of,,,,say,,,,3.50% and your risk tollerance
is only at 10% of your porfolio, you can still beat the ugly old (G) Fund.

That my friend is the question you must ask yourself. It's like going to the
Casino's with $500 in your pocket. Your out of gas and can't make it home
if you lose all $500. So put aside your $100 for gas (4.00 per gallon) and
figure the $400 already belongs to the casino. If you lose it all, you've
come out even. If you bring home $410, your a winner. If you get lucky
and hit the number, the rewards will surpass your original $500 investment

The trick is to use all the resources at your disposal. P&F Charts, News,
Economic Reports, Earnings, Fed Meetings, the list is endless. Once you
have absorbed all you can, you have to decide if your comfortable with
the the risk and justifiable through conflicting information and your gut.
You can't win, if you don't play. But always keep in mind that you can
lose. On March 10th, 2008 I was down -5.32% YTD. Let me tell ya, it
really hurt ! On March 11th, that 3.50% in the (G) looked mighty good.
But the idea is to gain more then you lose and the market does not go
up or down in a straight line. I am now close to being up +6.00% YTD.
I wouldn't be if I sat on the sidelines and didn't take a chance.

Now, If your a Young Buck with time on your side, quit being a wimp and
get your butt into the market. If I knew then, what I know now, etc.....
Have fun, learn, be smart and take a risk or two. You won't always be
right, but when you are, it feels GOOOOOOOD !

Please read my signature below.

 

[Guest2]

Momentum is not only lost, the Market is falling strong. YUK !
In comparison to the 1.19% gain the S&P500 was showing earlier.
Well, Its time for a Graveyard Shift nap. It's (MY) monday tonight
and Poooh! is the only thing that comes to mind. Hoping for some
last minute buying, but the (F) is going positve as I write. I'm sure
a deficit update will be forthcoming soon. May it stay Green for all.

 

[XL-entLady]

If the (G) Fund is going to give you a
no-risk, etched in stone return of,,,,say,,,,3.50% and your risk tollerance
is only at 10% of your porfolio, you can still beat the ugly old (G) Fund.

....

The trick is to use all the resources at your disposal. P&F Charts, News,
Economic Reports, Earnings, Fed Meetings, the list is endless. Once you
have absorbed all you can, you have to decide if your comfortable with
the the risk and justifiable through conflicting information and your gut.

Squalebear, your wise advice is excellent, as always! For absolute newbies to TSP funds, may I make one more suggestion? At the risk of incurring frowns from folks who love to be 'hands on' with their accounts.

While TSP newbies are in a steep learning curve in regard to absorbing information and learning how much risk their gut can handle, they may want to look at the Lifestyle Funds as a beginning point. That way they only have 5 choices, and can feel things out better as far as risk aversion. (For example, I'm already retired, so the party line is that I should be in L-Income, but my funds are more closely proportioned to the L2020 Fund.)

Lady