Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

That was my basis for going 100% C Fund. On the whole I and S will usually gain at a better pace when things are going up - but my fear was the others may top out soon - while hopefully C will continue. This is good info. Thanks SB

Something is begining to smell and I can't put my finger on it. Could be
the type of resistance we're seeing or maybe it's Deja Vue. This market
has been wanting to go up on better bad news. Something has to give
and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3% lose sometime soon. Conflicting
(Governmentally Influenced) figures leaves this investor paranoid as hell.
Even if I'm locked in the (G), I can't help but feel that the dip I expect
to see is just around the corner. Then again, the Market could climb on
the "Wall of Worry". Tomarrow may hold a clue.

Producer Price Index is due out tomarrow at 8:30am and will move the
market in one direction or the another. PPI Core is expected to be 0.2%
and PPI is expected to come in at 0.4%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/05/08) +.122% -0.08 tsp cents
(5/06/08) -.578% -0.22 tsp cents
(5/07/08) +.505% -0.10 tsp cents
(5/08/08) +.305% -0.02 tsp cents
(5/09/08) -.364% -0.11 tsp cents

(5/12/08) +.258% -0.05 tsp cents
(5/13/08) - .324% -0.13 tsp cents
(5/14/08) +.292% -0.06 tsp cents
(5/15/08) - .079% -0.08 tsp cents
(5/16/08) - .099% -0.10 tsp cents

(5/19/08) +.408% 0.00 tsp cents :nuts:

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare)
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met) :nuts:
-.10 thru -.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)

 

[Birchtree]

Anxiety over the economy is at its highest level since 1981. The stock market continues its upward bias in spite of a lack of broad participation from sidelined investors. The rally up until now has been of the "phantom" variety in the sense that few have participated in it - just the way Ferdinand likes it.

 

[Guest2]

Here is an indicator that doesnt figure into any of the GVT stats.

Data on the five-fold growth of derivatives to $516 trillion in five years comes from the most recent survey by the Bank of International Settlements, the world's clearinghouse for central banks in Basel, Switzerland. The BIS is like the cashier's window at a racetrack or casino, where you'd place a bet or cash in chips, except on a massive scale: BIS is where the U.S. settles trade imbalances with Saudi Arabia for all that oil we guzzle and gives China IOUs for the tainted drugs and lead-based toys we buy.

To grasp how significant this five-fold bubble increase is, let's put that
$516 trillion in the context of some other domestic and international
monetary data:

U.S. annual gross domestic product is about $15 trillion
U.S. money supply is also about $15 trillion
Current proposed U.S. federal budget is $3 trillion
U.S. government's maximum legal debt is $9 trillion
U.S. mutual fund companies manage about $12 trillion
World's GDPs for all nations is approximately $50 trillion
Unfunded Social Security and Medicare benefits $50 trillion to $65 trillion
Total value of the world's real estate is estimated at about $75 trillion
Total value of world's stock and bond markets is more than $100 trillion
BIS valuation of world's derivatives back in 2002 was about $100 trillion
BIS 2007 valuation of the world's derivatives is now a whopping $516 trillion.

Moreover, the folks at BIS say their estimate of $516 trillion only includes "transactions in which a major private dealer (bank) is involved on at least one side of the transaction," but doesn't include private deals between two "non-reporting entities." They did, however, add that their reporting central banks estimate that the coverage of the survey is around 95% on average.

 

[Steadygain]

Something is begining to smell and I can't put my finger on it. Could be the type of resistance we're seeing or maybe it's Deja Vue. This market has been wanting to go up on better bad news. Something has to give and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3% lose sometime soon.

I would say the main reason for this thought is based on the extreme volitiliy the Markets have undergone since Spring of last year - and all the more evidenced since the Summer. This year started off as a slowly deflating bubble and many were expected much worse results. The FED patched the hole and only now is the ballon starting to really fill.


Birchtree's comment here is probably the main reason for what you and many others are sensing.
1. Anxiety over the economy is at its highest level since 1981.
2. Upward trend DESPITE a lack of broad participation
3.The rally up until now has been of the "phantom" variety in the sense that few have participated in it

There is little comfort going into a Market where the bulk remain on the sidelines. This all the more reinforces our Voo Doo Mentality because we have to think all of them are waiting for the fall.

My guess is TODAY will take a hard hit - probably very hard hit - yet the overall gains over the past 2+ months will continue to outweigh the losses.

If we are finally heading to the LAST BOTTOM - which I kept preaching about several months prior - then this would certainly be a good time to bail to safety. If today is just an inevitable correction with sustained growth - then staying in is the better choice.

 

[nasa1974]

I just pulled everything into "G". I hope for a small rally today so I do not loose too much. Anyway this is from StockTiming.com:

"Investors were doing their "Oh Wows!" yesterday when the Dow Jones Transportation Index made a new high.
They should have been saying: "Something's wrong here!". Oil closed at a high of $127 a barrel and the index that is most negatively affected by it is ... you guessed it, the Transports. Isn't anyone concerned by this incredible divergence of opposite behaviors? The pit traders are concerned ... they don't like the action and they don't trust it.
Where do you look for the reality for what is going on it the markets? I trust the action on the Institutional's "top core holdings". They control over 50% of the volume on any given day, so watching what they are doing is more telling than someone driving up the Transports under ridiculous circumstances. See today's update link for the important Institutional event yesterday.
On another note ...
Shanghai Downside Risk Alert: The Shanghai Composite moved down -4.48% last night and the Shanghai was moving down to its critical support. Its RSI Indicator is still in negative territory and falling. If it can't get past the upper channel's RSI resistance, then the Shanghai will likely move down lower and close its recent gap below its critical support level at 3358.93. The Shanghai is now under a downside Risk Alert.

This made me a little more nervous than usual. :blink: And listening to all of you it felt right to go into protect mode. Good Luck to all.

 

[Guest2]

The Volitility Index ($VIX) closed at 17.02 yesterday. Today will be it's 3rd
day upward (off the mid 16's). Yes, volitility is on the rise and the Index is
now swinging between 17 and 18.

The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.4% in April.
It was more than expected. Core prices are up 3% in the past year. This
is the biggest year-over-year rise since late 1991. Economists expected
a 0.4% rise in the headline PPI and a 0.2% gain in the core rate.

Fed's Kohn: Interest rates are at right level, for now.
Fed's Kohn: Indicates desire to hold rates steady going forward.
Fed's Kohn: Large uncertainty surrounds wish to hold steady.
Fed's Kohn: Sees economy firming after June, stronger next year.
Fed's Kohn: Expects gradual improvement in financial markets.
Fed's Kohn: Fed has no greater tolerance for inflation.

Boone Pickens: Sees $150 a Barrel Oil this year.
Crude-oil futures hit new high of $128.19 a barrel.
June gold last up $8.90 at $914.70/oz in electronic trade.

For me, the wall of worry is more like, climbing the fence at the ADX
in Florence, Colorado (SuperMax). The M-16's are poised to cut down
any attempts to get over the top. (Breaking new highs). If the Fed and
Economists are correct, we'll begin to see better economic numbers within
the 3rd and 4th qtrs. The Election bump & better then expected earnings
for Q3 could allow for a very Merry Christmas indeed. Since the market
looks ahead 3-6 months, some are investing now based on the above
speculations. However, there's a lot more money, still sitting on the side
lines, waiting for better news. For now, I'm thinking June, July, August
will be Hit & Run months concerning my IFT's, then, thinking "Long" from
September thru January. Just remember, I change my mind on a whim
and base my IFT's on the direction of the wind. (LoL)

 

[Guest2]

And listening to all of you it felt right to go into protect mode. Good Luck to all.

There's a lot of info out there pushing me in the same direction. While I sit
in the (G) until June 1st, I feel like a "turncoat" when I find myself wishing
for a big downturn before May 30th. But, thats what I'm doing. Using the
(G) to avoid loses is a valid tool. If I leave my money there until Dec 31st,
I'll close the year with approximately 9.10% YTD (Not quite enough).

Ok, I admit it ! It's out of Greed - Not out of Need ! :nuts:

Welcome to "Safe Harbour"

 

[luv2read]

Ribbit.

 

[camper65]

There's a lot of info out there pushing me in the same direction. While I sit
in the (G) until June 1st, I feel like a "turncoat" when I find myself wishing
for a big downturn before May 30th. But, thats what I'm doing. Using the
(G) to avoid loses is a valid tool. If I leave my money there until Dec 31st,
I'll close the year with approximately 9.10% YTD (Not quite enough).

Ok, I admit it ! It's out of Greed - Not out of Need ! :nuts:

Welcome to "Safe Harbour"

I FEEL YOUR PAIN!:cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

I FEEL YOUR PAIN!:cheesy:

Thats bone pain from the cold weather in Maine (LoL) :nuts:

 

[nsurf9]

Re: Hot Dogs, anybody?

SB, thank for the condiments. I'll be grilling on the lilly pad, just to the right.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Hot Dogs, anybody?

It's gonna take time to adjust to the new rulez and develope a better
feel for the market. My first lesson was patience. I want to check out
what the "Best Last Month Method" has to say about May (so far) and
keep a closer eye on it for June too.

It's been said that the more people in the (G) could make for some better
returns in equities. Maybe, but we're joining the money on the sidelines for
only a few days. Maybe we can avoid some down days until our freedom
to enter is restored. Hopefully, the market will drop another 500 points in
the meantime and we can catch a glorious rebound. My expectations are
low until the end of August, but, we can still squeek out enough green to
justify our moves.

Note: For the first time this year, the (I) Fund was overpaid. I state in the
key that this is rare. However, I have not eliminated the possibility of this
being a transition into the opposite direction. Specifically, more Blue then
Red on a daily basis, but still continuing to reach its goal of single digits.

EFA vs TSP (I) DEFICIT:
(5/12/08) +.258% -0.05 tsp cents
(5/13/08) - .324% -0.13 tsp cents
(5/14/08) +.292% -0.06 tsp cents
(5/15/08) - .079% -0.08 tsp cents
(5/16/08) - .099% -0.10 tsp cents

(5/19/08) +.408%-+0.00 tsp cents
(5/20/08) +.069% +0.02 tsp cents

THE KEY:
+.05 thru +.01 Overpayment to the I-Fund (rare) :blink:
-.00 thru -.09 Low Difference (It's goals are met)
-.10 thru -.15 Medium Difference (Flip A Coin)
-.16 thru -.23 High Difference (rarely goes higher)

 

[luv2read]

overpayments happen on down days to keep them within the target.:nuts:

 

[Guest2]

overpayments happen on down days to keep them within the target.:nuts:

This could be explained away by something as common as, say, the
miscalculation of FV by Barclays. In 2007 it was more common to see
an Overpayment each day. Deficits were the rare exception. I found
this quite interesting, when given the facts concerning liquidity issues
facing the world. :suspicious:

 

[luv2read]

This could be explained away by something as common as, say, the
miscalculation of FV by Barclays. In 2007 it was more common to see
an Overpayment each day. Deficits were the rare exception. I found
this quite interesting, when given the facts concerning liquidity issues
facing the world. :suspicious:

barclays miscalculate? *gasp*!!!

You did see the info about Barclays, FV and equity funds I cut from tsp.gov and posted in the MB?

 

[Silverbird]

I'm still wondering if Barclay's is using a proprietary exchange rate mechanism (maybe based on the pound since they are British), and they are having problems trying to use a system originally meant to smooth out little exchange rate blips on an exchange rate that now is experiencing lots of volitivity. Similar to the CPI/PPI are you kidding? measures of late, smoothing based on past trends isn't working right now.

 

[Guest2]

I'm not educated in the ways of mechanisms, crystal balls or software
based rate evaluators that the Fund Managers may be using to come
up with some of these figures. Based on my 3rd year of tracking the
differences between the EFA and (I) Fund, there are facts which still
hold true. My Deficit/Overpayment definition is unchanged. I only wish
there was a way to track the actual MSCI EAFE INDEX during normal
trading hours, instead of the iShares EFA or $IEE which have their own
set of rules, fees and alike.

If the EFA closes today unchanged and the past 5 months of tracking
hasn't done a reverse on me, I foresee the current Overpayment of
+.02 tsp cents going back to the deficit side by underperforming the
EFA's returns. That would result in a lose within the (I) Fund. Should
we get a turn around (currently happening) and the EFA closes up
for the day, the (I) Fund could still see a gain, but less then the EFA
had to offer. Right now, the EFA is +.09%.

 

[Guest2]

According to the Tracker, Norman and I are neck & neck for the most
IFT's in the month of May. What stands out more then that is the fact
that soooooo many have made 2 or less with 7 days left in May. :blink:

Could this be the new wave of the future ? Does 99.9% of all members
believe that Buy & Hold is the way to go ? (Nothing wrong with that) !

Maybe (and more likey) there is still some confussion over the rules and
that the Thrift Board (and TSP website) has failed in educating the 3.9
million participants of their abilities to move their money within the limits
imposed. I can't begin to tell you how many coworkers have come to ask
me about the new limits. And yes, even those who stated a few months
ago that they never touch their TSP money by doing IFT's. Should any
TSPtalk member have a question concerning the above, please feel free
to use my thread to ask your questions. I'll do my best to answer them
or direct you to the right place.

 

[luv2read]

Maybe (and more likey) there is still some confussion over the rules and that the Thrift Board (and TSP website) has failed in educating the 3.9 million participants of their abilities to move their money within the limits imposed. I can't begin to tell you how many coworkers have come to ask me about the new limits. And yes, even those who stated a few months ago that they never touch their TSP money by doing IFT's. Should any TSPtalk member have a question concerning the above, please feel free to use my thread to ask your questions. I'll do my best to answer them or direct you to the right place.

A point that I have hammered repeatedly is that FRTIB and OPM are required BY LAW to educate TSP members. Relying on "self-education" from a website and "materials" doesn't meet that requirement. MANDATORY retirement seminars for new hires and for those within 5 years of retirement, and MANDATORY refreshers every 5 years are needed. If nothing else, this fiasco has made people aware that they need to pay attention to their TSP and to seek professional advice if they are lost. I wonder how many of them are within 5 years of retirement and suddenly realize they aren't going to have enough money to retire when they want to - and wish they had joined us in protesting the limits?

 

[Steadygain]

According to the Tracker, Norman and I are neck & neck for the most
IFT's in the month of May. What stands out more then that is the fact
that soooooo many have made 2 or less with 7 days left in May. :blink:

Could this be the new wave of the future ? Does 99.9% of all members
believe that Buy & Hold is the way to go ? (Nothing wrong with that) !

I think we are forced to analyze "trends" instead of the frequent swings.

If the Markets gained 3% or better on a given day I would sell, let it settle a day day or 2, then go back in.

If I knew the FED was bringing a huge rate cut - would go in for that.

But now we are forced to buy and hold "a little longer" - and that is an adjustment most of us will get over time. I doubt that even 10% of this MB believes Buy and Hold is the way to go.