Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

I did correct myself within an earlier post;
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=195572&postcount=2543

I also understand that this method is cumulative based. It changes daily
depending on what the market does that day. The -.27% difference that
I have (Buy&Hold vs. <1%IFT) can change in a matter of a day. Not too
shabby considering all the down days we've seen. Should Monday hold a
continuation of Friday's Rally, I think I'll exceed the break even point. Not
necessarily the break even point within my overall balance, but the break
even point when comparing the results of a Buy&Hold strategy under the
same circumstances. We're getting there ! We just need to sustain this
rally for a couple more days. But there in lies the problem. we have not
been able to sustain anything longer then one day all month. Cross thy
fingers.

Actually, I'm really hoping for Monday to end "Unchanged". Why you may
ask ? Because I have the following percentages locked in for Monday;

(G)80.08% (F)00.00% (C)07.36% (S)06.27% (I)06.29%

This was accomplished by NOT doing a <1%IFT on Friday morning as
I speculated that the Market would end UP for the day based on some
strong Futures all that night and a whole lot of luck. Come Monday at
11:30am, I can do a <1%IFT and bring my percentages up to this;

(G)78.00% (F)00.00% (C)08.00% (S)07.00% (I)07.00%

My decision will be based on a ton of variables that don't have answers
just yet. Once I study who's coming out with Earnings and Economic
Reports on Monday/Tuesday, how consistant the overnight Futures are
handling the weekend news, I'll have a stronger idea as to which way I'll
be leaning.

 

[Caldonia]

I did correct myself within an earlier post;
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=195572&postcount=2543

I also understand that this method is cumulative based. It changes daily
depending on what the market does that day. The -.27% difference that
I have (Buy&Hold vs. <1%IFT) can change in a matter of a day. Not too
shabby considering all the down days we've seen. Should Monday hold a
continuation of Friday's Rally, I think I'll exceed the break even point. Not
necessarily the break even point within my overall balance, but the break
even point when comparing the results of a Buy&Hold strategy under the
same circumstances. We're getting there ! We just need to sustain this
rally for a couple more days. But there in lies the problem. we have not
been able to sustain anything longer then one day all month. Cross thy
fingers.

Actually, I'm really hoping for Monday to end "Unchanged". Why you may
ask ? Because I have the following percentages locked in for Monday;

(G)80.08% (F)00.00% (C)07.36% (S)06.27% (I)06.29%

This was accomplished by NOT doing a <1%IFT on Friday morning as
I speculated that the Market would end UP for the day based on some
strong Futures all that night and a whole lot of luck. Come Monday at
11:30am, I can do a <1%IFT and bring my percentages up to this;

(G)78.00% (F)00.00% (C)08.00% (S)07.00% (I)07.00%

My decision will be based on a ton of variables that don't have answers
just yet. Once I study who's coming out with Earnings and Economic
Reports on Monday/Tuesday, how consistant the overnight Futures are
handling the weekend news, I'll have a stronger idea as to which way I'll
be leaning.

Hello again. Thank you SB. Now it is very clear to me from this example how the DCA can work, so I can eventually round up in the other funds and back out of the G fund..., if I let it ride an up day. Often have to decide on any action very early in the morning, or miss the 10am my time deadline and have to wait 2 days.

I can't keep up with posting as much as I would like, but I have been faithfully reading yours, and XL-entLady's postings, and others, and am enjoying learning so many new options for my TSP. Thank you SBfor taking the time to repeat your earlier postings on how to DCA out of G and back into the others when out of IFT. Thank you for taking the time to PM an answer to my earlier question. You're terrific!

FYI my current account percentages are:
85% G, 10% L2020, 1% F, 2 % C, 1% S, 1% I

 

[Guest2]

Hello again. Thank you SB. Now it is very clear to me from this example how the DCA can work, so I can eventually round up in the other funds and back out of the G fund..., if I let it ride an up day. Often have to decide on any action very early in the morning, or miss the 10am my time deadline and have to wait 2 days.

I can't keep up with posting as much as I would like, but I have been faithfully reading yours, and XL-entLady's postings, and others, and am enjoying learning so many new options for my TSP. Thank you SB for taking the time to repeat your earlier postings on how to DCA out of G and back into the others when out of IFT. Thank you for taking the time to PM an answer to my earlier question. You're terrific!

FYI my current account percentages are:
85% G, 10% L2020, 1% F, 2 % C, 1% S, 1% I

Your most Welcome. To Protect and Serve is a 24 hour a day job. :embarrest:

 

[Guest2]

Are stocks cheap? It depends on earnings
Valuations at multi-decade low but economic, credit risks cloud profit picture
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last update: 4:33 p.m. EST Nov. 21, 2008

Optimism is in short supply; so are stocks cheap? Is the U.S. market now the Great Give-Away? The answer depends on who you ask, and which yardsticks are used to measure valuation. Investors were cheered Friday on reports that President-elect Barack Obama will name Timothy Geithner, the president of the New York Federal Reserve and a former Treasury official, as Treasury secretary.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU 8,046.42, +494.13, +6.5%) rallied in the final hour of trading, tacking on almost 500 points to close back above 8,000 -- a gain of 6.5%. But that upbeat finish can't gloss over a market that seems to be littered with land mines. Citigroup Inc. has been pushed to the brink after a stunning decline in the banking giant's shares, and the strapped Big Three automakers begged Congress for a bailout this week. A fierce debate is raging between bulls and bears over whether U.S. stocks are beaten down enough to risk wading in. Even after Friday's rally, the bears are winning the argument.

Yet in these extraordinary times, it can be helpful to put emotions on the back burner and consider market history. There is no doubt that fear is propelling markets, but over the long haul, the gravity of fundamentals and valuation drives returns. One of the most common metrics of stocks' valuation is price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, which is a rough gauge of how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of future earnings. Price is simply the stock's value, but a big and nagging problem of P/E is how to measure earnings. For example, investors can use forward-looking earnings estimates or trailing profits. Based on 2009 projected operating earnings, the P/E on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index this week was around 10, according to Standard & Poor's. Valuations haven't been this cheap in decades, at least according to this measure.

Meanwhile, 12-month trailing P/E was around 11, a level last seen in the late 1980s, according to Boston-based money manager Eaton Vance Corp. 'Delusional' earnings forecasts Many market pundits think Wall Street's earnings expectations for 2009 are way too rosy as corporate America braces for what could be a nasty recession and more job losses. The financial system also looks susceptible to more tremors with credit markets still unsettled. Highlighting the fear, yields on three-month Treasury bills are virtually zero. "Corporate earnings-per-share continue to be revised sharply lower, especially in cyclical sectors," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P. "While equity prices will likely precede an upturn in the fundamentals, we think the global economic and EPS outlook need to at least show tentative signs of stabilization before a lasting rally will ensue."

Nouriel Roubini, a New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis, in a recent commentary piece for Forbes magazine called 2009 consensus estimates for earnings "delusional" and "outright silly." Roubini, who warned of the worst consumer recession in decades, wrote the U.S. consumer is "shopped-out, saving less and debt-burdened." If earnings do fall sharply in an economic slowdown and profit margins are squeezed, then the market won't appear so inexpensive and stocks could sink to new depths, bears say. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P, says profit estimates need to come down to reflect the economic challenges, and this is the time of year when companies and analysts typically cut forecasts. Most S&P 500 companies have already reported third-quarter earnings, and the results weren't pretty. Operating earnings fell 22% from the year-ago period, marking the fifth straight quarter of negative earnings growth, according to S&P. Much of the damage has been centered in the financial sector, which has been pounded by the credit tsunami and write-downs on soured credit investments. SPDR: Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund , an exchange-traded fund tracking large-capitalization financial stocks, was down 67% year to date through Nov. 20, trailing the S&P 500 by 19 percentage points, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc. Since October 2007, the weighting of the financial sector in the Russell 1000 Index has fallen, to under 15% from more than 20%. By comparison, after the Internet bubble popped, the technology sector's representation in the index slumped to about 12% in late 2002 from 31% at its height.

Uncertainty in the financials and other sectors has led to huge and unsettling swings in stock prices. Volatility is "off the wall," Silverblatt said. One-day shifts of 5% or more -- as happened on Friday -- have become routine. The S&P 500 has moved at least 1% up or down on more than half the trading days this year, and investors have to go back to the Great Depression to see comparable volatility, Silverblatt noted.(VIX 72.67, -8.19, -10.1%) , has spiked during the market turmoil. The market-sentiment benchmark measures the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500. Highlighting investors' skittishness, the VIX jumped to a record intraday high of 89.5 on Oct. 24 and broke through 80 again this week. Prior to October, the VIX had only closed above 45 on four days, according to Russell Investment Group. Since Oct. 12, the VIX has stayed above 45 with an average reading well over 60. If stocks are cheap, why are they falling?

In volatile markets, one way investors can reduce risk is by dollar-cost averaging into stocks, rather than buying all at once. Nevertheless, they should set aside enough cash to cover any short-term surprises in this uncertain economic climate. Additionally, financial planners encourage workers to max out their retirement plans as much as possible to take advantage of the company matching if their employer offers it, and also the tax benefits. This "free money" is a kind of leverage that lets investors scoop up more shares on the cheap in bear markets.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Stocks-look-cheap-doesnt-mean/story.aspx?guid=%7BCBFF6D11%2D7DC2%2D416C%2DB131%2D66AA50E683F9%7D

 

[Guest2]

I trust that everyone is as far away from the market as one can be this
weekend. God only knows, we all needed a break. Well, its Sunday morn
and I plan on watching my Cellar Dweller Football Team today. We play
the Baltimore Ravens at 1:00pm and I can't help but wonder if my team
will even bother showing up.

My Prediction:
E-A-G-L-E-S (24)
R.A.V.E.N.S. (21)

Thats about it for now, Here's wishing everyone a Great Sunday !

 

[Guest2]

HP Earnings: How Much Will "Hurt" From Economy?

Hewlett Packard
SAN JOSE, Calif. - Technology company Hewlett-Packard Co. is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes Monday.

OVERVIEW: Faced with a sharply falling stock price, tech bellwether HP tried to reassure Wall Street by preannouncing better-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and 2009 guidance.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27856357

 

[justbizness45]

SB, hope you enjoy your game and forget the economy for a day. I spent yesterday in the woods playing lost person. It was great. I was visited by a coyote and a doe before the pretty little chocolate lab found me and led her handler back to me. What a relaxing morning and afternoon. I don't think I thought about the market at all yesterday. Anyway, enjoy your day and take a break. You deserve it!!

 

[Guest2]

SB, hope you enjoy your game and forget the economy for a day. I spent yesterday in the woods playing lost person. It was great. I was visited by a coyote and a doe before the pretty little chocolate lab found me and led her handler back to me. What a relaxing morning and afternoon. I don't think I thought about the market at all yesterday. Anyway, enjoy your day and take a break. You deserve it!!

THANKS JB45,

I don't know whats more depressing.
Waking up from a two hour nap to watch
your favorite team CRASH worse then any
day we've seen in the market lately.

OR

Listening to Paulson during a two hour (pack of lies) speech.


B-A-G-L-E-S B-I-T T-H-E D-U-S-T ! ! ! ! !

 

[alevin]

B-A-G-L-E-S B-I-T T-H-E D-U-S-T ! ! ! ! !

SB, BAGLE is a bad bad worm/trojan, something like that. I don't mind it biting the dust at all. Did you perchance mean Beagles bit the dust? Bagels bit the dust? Bengals bit the dust?

You'll feel better after your nap, I'm sure. :cheesy:

 

[Guest2]

SB, BAGLE is a bad bad worm/trojan, something like that. I don't mind it biting the dust at all. Did you perchance mean Beagles bit the dust? Bagels bit the dust? Bengals bit the dust? You'll feel better after your nap, I'm sure.

(LoL) Yes, I meant Beagles. But after yesterdays game, somehow, even
that title seems to give them too much credit. I guess I'll have to rely on
the Stock Market today, to pump up my spirits.

 

[Guest2]

Citi rescue lifts European stocks !
http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/24/markets/world_markets/index.htm?postversion=2008112405

Citi rescue set to boost stocks !
Futures point to higher open for Wall Street after
government agrees to help rescue financial giant.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/24/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008112405

 

[WorkFE]

SB,
After games like that I pop in my DVD of the WS and put the Beagles out of my mind until next weekend.
Hope you enjoyed your nap.

 

[Guest2]

SB,
After games like that I pop in my DVD of the WS and put the Beagles out of my mind until next weekend.
Hope you enjoyed your nap.

GWorkFE, a.k.a. the Gorden Gecco of the TSP :nuts:
T.G.I.F. ! (for me) ! S&P Futures are nearly up
a full 3%. Now alls we have to do is tie up Ben
and Paulson and hide them in our trunks for the
day. :nuts: Good Luck today !

 

[nasa1974]

THANKS JB45,

I don't know whats more depressing.
Waking up from a two hour nap to watch
your favorite team CRASH worse then any
day we've seen in the market lately.

OR

Listening to Paulson during a two hour (pack of lies) speech.


B-A-G-L-E-S B-I-T T-H-E D-U-S-T ! ! ! ! !

Try being a Browns fan:notrust:

 

[Guest2]

By letting her ride on Friday (without making a <1%IFT) my
current account percentages look like the following;

(G)80.08% (F)0.00% (C)7.36% (S)6.27% (I)6.29%

I'm left with several options today;

#1-Take all my money out of risk and lock in a positive month.
#2-Make a <1%IFT of 85-0-5-5-5 to lock in gains and leave original percentage at risk.
#3-Make a <1%IFT of 78-0-8-7-7 to put more at risk in hopes of greater gains.

Any thoughts about what the shorter week will have to offer?

 

[Guest2]

Try being a Browns fan:notrust:

I'll stick with Miserable. Being Cold and Miserable would be too much to take. :nuts:

 

[WorkFE]

Unfortunately SB, GG was a fictional character who was rich, I am a real person who is not so fortunate.

 

[Guest2]

I Bailed To The (G) Fund.
(MOSTLY !) I Still Want To Play !

97%(G)-0%(F)-1%(C)-1%(S)-1%(I)

 

[JTH]

Any thoughts about what the shorter week will have to offer?

Humm, thoughts? Yes, accurate thoughts? No

Honestly I'll be surprised if we hold unto today's gains. I'm going back to G today with my 1 day play and I hope to take some quick gains back to safety.

For the rest of the year and possibly the next, my only goal will be to accumulate more shares of G. At this point, I'm losing all faith in this market's stability. I believe we'll have multiple meltdowns, so I doubt I'll invest more than 25%, and if I do it will only be for a short period of time.

My goals for next year are simple. Beat the G-Fund

 

[Guest2]

Unfortunately SB, GG was a fictional character who was rich, I am a real person who is not so fortunate.

Welcome To The Real World of (GG) Fund High Finance !:toung:

Keep in mind, TSPTalk.com has been worth its weight in Gold !
If I had a scale, I'd lay odds you could take GG's Company out
from under him, in a hostile Take-Over Bid. Nice day so far,
Don't you think. Cross those finger, we're gonna give a little
back around 3:30pm. (I Think !) But that's a good thing, simply
because the opposite usually happens when I predict things.:nuts: