Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.:blink:

 

[350zCommTech]

My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.:blink:

Since I'm exiting the I fund today, I hope that you are wrong.

 

[Guest2]

Since I'm exiting the I fund today, I hope that you are wrong.

I'm sure you do. I'm seeing a .0785 overpayment in the O/D Tracker.
If consistancy holds, we'll see a full payback back to zero or at minimum
half of that. Dollar for dollar, the (I) Fund is up 0.13 tsp cents right now
with the EFA being up +.99%. that still brings in a +.05 cent gain in the
(I) Fund, should it close at this level. :worried: I'm right there with ya, the (I)
Fund has been keeping me in the green so far today

 

[Guest2]

(I) Funders paid back .063 TSP Cents that was owed
according to the O/D Tracker. The debt wasn't all paid,
as a measley one and a half cent Overpayment currently
exists for tomorrow. Todays trading within the EFA gave
the $VIX a real work out. So, with Thanksgiving being
right around the corner, Wednesday may be full of the
same while investors position themselves for a long, but
much needed Holiday. :blink: A small note concerning the (F) Fund.
The 1.24% gain is rarely seen within the (F) and Congratulations are in
order to all the (F) Funders. I only wish the fund saw the +2.49% gain
that the AGG showed today. It would have been nice. :blink:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents
(11/25/08) -0.4855% -0.0155 tsp cents:blink:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met):blink:
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[350zCommTech]

I'm sure you do. I'm seeing a .0785 overpayment in the O/D Tracker.
If consistancy holds, we'll see a full payback back to zero or at minimum
half of that. Dollar for dollar, the (I) Fund is up 0.13 tsp cents right now
with the EFA being up +.99%. that still brings in a +.05 cent gain in the
(I) Fund, should it close at this level. :worried: I'm right there with ya, the (I)
Fund has been keeping me in the green so far today

I don't know how you do it, but you were right. I funders got screwed by an -11 cent FV today.

Good call.

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -41.61%.....C=...-40.39%....-12.86% (my figures):embarrest:
DW.= -46.21%.....S=.. -44.95%....
EFA= -47.39%......I=...-46.72%...
AGG= -02.13%.....F=.. +01.47%...
...........................G=...+03.45%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -11.50%.....C=...-11.25%....+03.72%(my figures)
DW.= -17.29%.....S=...-16.98%....
EFA= -07.34%......I=...-07.06%...
AGG=+03.19%.....F=...+03.10%...
...........................G=...+00.26%..

 

[Guest2]

I don't know how you do it, but you were right. I funders got screwed by an -11 cent FV today. Good call.

Thanks 350z, the O/D Tracker takes a broad view of all the variable that
could affect the (I) Fund. But your .11 TSP Cent figure must be based on
FV. If all things were equal between the EFA and (I) Fund, we would have
received a additional .0630 TSP Cents. That would have driven the (I)'s
Daily Gain Return Percentage into being equal to the EFA. But the Fund
Manager's goal is to keep the differences between the two, somewhere
within the "Low" Deficit/"Minimum" Overpayment area of the O/D Tracker.
The trend has been fairly consistant. Based on my tracker, it wasn't too
difficult to see that a payback was likely to come. The amount of payback
was up for grabs, based on my gut and the years of tracking I've done with it.

 

[350zCommTech]

But the Fund
Manager's goal is to keep the differences between the two, somewhere
within the "Low" Deficit/Overpayment area of the O/D Tracker. The trend
has been fairly consistant. Based on my tracker, it wasn't too difficult to
see that a payback was likely to come. The amount of payback was up
for grabs, based on my gut and the years of tracking I've done with it.

That's very interesting SB.

Thank you.

 

[Guest2]

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Thursday, November 27th, in observance of Thanksgiving Day. Transactions that would have been processed Thursday night (November 27th) will be processed Friday night (November 28th), at Friday's closing share prices.​

So, should you decide to do a IFT today (Wednesday) it will go into effect at Wednesday's Closing Share Prices and the changes will be in place come (Friday's) Opening Bell. Any changes done "AFTER" the noon deadline today, will go into effect at Friday's Closing Share Prices and the changes will be in place come (Monday's) Opening Bell.​

Always alittle confusion about IFT's just prior to a Holiday, I Hope This Helps !​

 

[Davehop21]

Ok, major KUDOs to Squalebear. Tell me if I am wrong please. 10% in C,S,I and rebalance daily would produce these results. If the market goes up you make money. If the market goes down you accumulate more shares at a cheaper price. Now I don't know if we are at the bottom but I think we are near it. I don't see how you can go wrong. Please share any thoughts.

Dave at VA

 

[Fireant]

Friday does the u.s. markets close at 12... thanks... Da FIREANT

 

[msls6]

My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.:blink:

My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.

Hi SB,
Thank you for the excellent information!
I have a question: When you say "-.07 tsp cent", do you mean 7 cents ($0.07), rather than 7/100 of one cent?
msls6

 

[Guest2]

Ok, major KUDOs to Squalebear. Tell me if I am wrong please. 10% in C,S,I and rebalance daily would produce these results. If the market goes up you make money. If the market goes down you accumulate more shares at a cheaper price. Now I don't know if we are at the bottom but I think we are near it. I don't see how you can go wrong. Please share any thoughts.

Dave at VA

I was taken away by priorities. Sorry I couldn't answer sooner !

10% in (C)(S)and(I) currently.
You do a <1%IFT using the same percentages.

If the market goes UP, You lock in your gain, but sell shares to do so and
re-buy shares at a higher price. I prefer letting a UP day ride, it increases
the percentages and gives you greater value of the shares you own. But
if on the next day, you find your percentages jumped over the next whole
number,,,,,, ie..... 10.76%------> 11.02%,,,,,,, then I might make a <1%
IFT and raise my percentage to 12.00%. This is possible within the TSP.

If the market goes down, you accept the loss and buy more shares at a
cheaper price. In turn, lowering your overall cost and driving your break
even point lower. If the market returns to your original price, you've made
some extra bucks.

 

[Guest2]

Friday does the u.s. markets close at 12... thanks... Da FIREANT

I'm not sure about Market hours at this moment, sorry !

 

[Guest2]

My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.My guts telling me that the (I) Fund is gonna get hit with a -.07 tsp cent
payback should the EFA close up like this. In either case, the fact that the EFA
is up by 1.50% right now, I think the (I) will certainly underperform against it.

Hi SB,
Thank you for the excellent information!
I have a question: When you say "-.07 tsp cent", do you mean 7 cents ($0.07), rather than 7/100 of one cent?
msls6

Yes, I'm talking about $0.07 TSP Cents when discussing the (I) Fund and
my tracking of the EFA in comparison. This is what the O/D Tracker does
each trading day. I try my best to post it each night. In past posts, I've
written extensively on the O/D Tracker, maybe a search would help you
understand my O/D posting abit better.

 

[Guest2]

I've been curious for some time now as to how many members benefit from
the posting of my O/D Tracker. So I've posted a poll within my thread to ask
the membership if they find it useful. (at the top of my thread). Thanks
in advance for your honesty and participation.

 

[ATCJeff]

Old thread.

 

[Guest2]

Old thread.

(LoL) Indeed ! :nuts:

 

[ATCJeff]

Though I look at your work often.

Thanks

 

[Guest2]

Currently, my tracking of the B&H method vs. the <1%IFT shows I am
current up by +0.2874% by utilizing the <1%IFT method. This is subject
to change today and on Friday, which is the last day of the month. I'll
keep ya posted.