Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

Humm, thoughts? Yes, accurate thoughts? No

Honestly I'll be surprised if we hold unto today's gains. I'm going back to G today with my 1 day play and I hope to take some quick gains back to safety.

For the rest of the year and possibly the next, my only goal will be to accumulate more shares of G. At this point, I'm losing all faith in this market's stability. I believe we'll have multiple meltdowns, so I doubt I'll invest more than 25%, and if I do it will only be for a short period of time.

My goals for next year are simple. Beat the G-Fund

With so many TSP Participants losing their shirts in 2008, I wouldn't be
surprised if you had a long line, waiting just behind you, looking to do
the very same thing. But for me, I will continue to play ! Even if its at
the 1% Level. Good Luck JTH, your expected to stick around and maybe
change your mind after the Bull Starts To Run.

 

[DakotaKid]

Personally, I'd take the money and run. You've had a good month. Me....I'm still waiting for my entry point. These 3 and 4 pm rallies / tanks are killing me (mentally, not financially. I'm 100% G). Looks likely that I'll have to sacrifice my golden IFTs to the TSP gods.... But I'd rather that than buy at the top of a rally... Good Luck with what ever you decided.

 

[Guest2]

Personally, I'd take the money and run. You've had a good month. Me....I'm still waiting for my entry point. These 3 and 4 pm rallies / tanks are killing me (mentally, not financially. I'm 100% G). Looks likely that I'll have to sacrifice my golden IFTs to the TSP gods.... But I'd rather that than buy at the top of a rally... Good Luck with what ever you decided.

Thanks DK, The last two days have been fairly easy to read. But your
absolutely right about the current market conditions. Who in their right
mind can actually make a well informed call when volitility allow for such
tremendous swings like we've had. Comfort comes with the (G) Fund. If
your risk tolerance is at zero, your not alone out there. When December
comes around, I'm fairly sure that I'll take the ultimate 100% somewhere
within the month. However, November has taught me to be patient and
how to keep myself in play without a total bail out. I look at it as practice
for when it comes time to retire, as I will likely take monthly payments
and leave the rest in the TSP to hopefully grow beyond expectations.

 

[Guest2]

8 Federal Career Strategies for the Almost Retired
Kathryn Troutman, Federal Career Expert

Has the slumping economy and the hit to your Thrift Savings account balance derailed your retirement plans?
Well, it was great thinking about golf, travel, grandkids and a leisurely cup of coffee in the morning. Oh well, your retirement plan will happen soon. In the meantime, for 2009, here are a few tips to keep the year moving along, challenging and productive.

Strategies for Mental Retirement, Part-Time

1. Add something to your work routine that is fun, new and different
Your current job maybe routine by now and you were really looking forward to leaving it. But now that you are staying another year, you have to do something to make it interesting. Look around and see if you can volunteer for a committee, task force or detail that is different.

2. New administration tasks
With a new president and all new appointees and staff, try to find something where you can get on board with a new Obama Initiative. Read the articles and listen to his weekly You Tube presentations to get insight into new programs in your agency. Keep your ear to the ground about where the new programs will be started from and volunteer to get involved. This will be new and exciting.

3. Take a course
Think about a course you would like to take that is job related (so it can get paid for by your agency), and that you would like to take, so that you can learn something new. Research courses and request reimbursement right away, so you can learn new skills.

4. Volunteer for employee programs or conferences
Volutneer to be a coordinator, speaker, or promoter for a program or conference for your office. This could be new and different.

5. Write a manual about your job
Pretend like you are not there and write a step-by-step guide on how to perform your job. Add examples of documents. Create an appendix with your list of contacts, partnerships, agreements. Provide a sample budget. Write a list of the most complicated parts of your job -- just for extra insight.

6. Encourage your agency to hire students for you to mentor
Provide mentoring and teaching to young people, either STEP, SCEP, FCIP or new hires, so that you can share your wisdom, ideas and vision for public service. Provide structure for their learning and give them "homework" for learning about public service in general, as well as their specific job responsibilities and office mission.

7. After work, add something new to your routine
Pretending like you are "almost retired", add something to your weekly routine that you would be doing if you were retired. Make dates with the grandkids. Create a special coffee time with your favorite newspaper. Get yourself a bicycle and ride it. Go for a 4 day, affordable trip -- just like you are retired.
In summary, the year will fly by if you add new activities into your job and your home life. It's okay to be Almost Retired. This will be a very good planning year and the anticipation will add to the enjoyment. In fact, this could be so successful, you could do this for two years.

8. Inspired to go for a promotion?
With all of the new Obama federal jobs and programs, keep your Federal Resume up-to-date in case you are inspired to apply for a promotion. Maybe you will even stay for three years to get a greater high-three salary average for your retirement annuity. For this activity, consider The Federal Federal Resume Guidebook and CD-ROM, 4th Edition for samples of the best federal resume and KSA formats for 2009.

About the Author Kathryn Troutman, President and Founder of The Resume Place, Inc. is "almost retired", but still works more than full-time managing Federal Resume Writing Services, Federal Career Training, Publishing and Certification Training Management. New activities in Troutman's life are: personal trainer two times per week; swimming lessons; loner walks with her little dogs. Troutman is the nation's leading expert in federal job search and career training. the designer of the Federal Resume, and is the author of nine federal career books that have helped many thousands of federal job seekers -- at all levels --land federal jobs and advance their careers The Resume Place also provides development editing services and professional writing services for federal applications.

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/305.cfm

 

[Guest2]

Important Lessons for TSP Participants Resulting from the 2008 Stock Market Downturn
Edward A. Zurndorfer, CFP

Most federal employees invest regularly in the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP). About this time last year during the fall of 2007, many TSP participants were elated both at the performance and the size of their TSP accounts. But this past year's dismal stock performance has resulted in dismay and concern among many TSP participants. As a result of the bleak performance of the stock market during 2008, some employees in fact have delayed or "put on hold" what was to be their anticipated retirement late this year or in early 2009. Some participants have switched their TSP fund allocations from the moderately aggressive stock funds to the conservative bond funds. Given the present - and perhaps the near future - performance of the stock market, is it a wise strategy at this time to switch one's TSP fund allocations from the moderately aggressive stock funds to the more conservative bond funds? Is there anything that TSP participants can learn from the stock market's dismal and volatile performance during 2008?

Here are some facts and recommendations for TSP investors to consider: No type of market -- whether it is the bond market, the stock market or the real estate market -- will continue to rise on an indefinite basis.
For example, during the real estate "boom" between 2003 and 2006, many first-time homeowners were so certain that housing prices would continue to rise that they applied for - and in most cases were accepted for - adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) with low "teaser" interest rates. In some instances individuals chose a no down-payment option with an "interest only" mortgage. During 2007, interest rates rose, home prices fell in many parts of the country, and mortgage rates were reset higher resulting in unaffordable monthly mortgage payments and foreclosures in many parts of the country. Similarly, many investors who purchased technology stocks during the 1990's were disappointed when their stocks dropped in value starting in March 2000. They had mistakenly assumed that technology stocks would continue to rise following the internet boom of the late 1990s.

Advice for investors: Be prepared for a period in which any type of an investment asset may decline in value, at least for some period of time.

Do not "panic".
If there was even a time to "panic", it was most likely in October 2007 when the stock market had nearly reached its all-time high. If an investor wanted to sell his or her stock portfolio, the decision to sell should have been made at that time. What has transpired in the stock market during 2008 has occurred before. There was the one day stock market "crash" on Oct. 19, 1987. Stocks also significantly fell during the savings and loans crisis of the early 1990's and during the Asian markets "meltdown" of 1997-98. While the stock market went into a downfall on each of these occasions, it ultimately recovered at least some - if not all - of its losses.

Diversification can help smooth volatile periods.
One reason many portfolios have recently significantly declined in value is that these portfolios are not diversified. No matter what is happening in the stock, bond or real estate markets, investors should always include in their portfolios a mixture of investments that includes stocks, bonds, real estate and cash/money market accounts.

Take advantage of the "sale."
When the stock market is down - such as now - it is a time to buy rather than to sell stocks. The downturn in the stock market has stocks looking cheaper now than they have in recent years. It is today's environment of low stock prices in which long- term and patient investors may ultimately make their investment gains.

With the upcoming pay raise in January, use the pay raise to lower one's debt and to increase one's savings.
Unfortunately, most people do not use their pay increases and bonuses/promotions to improve their finances and net worth. They are not making any attempt to get rid of their debt, especially credit card debt. While today's increasing living costs may be one reason why this is happening, partial blame lies with what is called Parkinson's Law. This law was named for the English economist who labeled this tendency for many potential investors. The law simply states that as the supply of a resource increases, so does the demand for that resource. Put in another way, "the more we make, the more we spend". Here are recommendations to help overcome our tendency to spend rather than to save:

• • Have a budget and stick to it. A detailed understanding of one's current expenses and having a plan for remaking where a salary increase is to be directed can keep one from negating and wasting that salary increase.
  • "Crash" financial diets do not work. As with "crash" food diets, setting an excessive "rigorous" long-term savings course is not only unfair but it may be counterproductive. Employees should use their salary increases to first address their immediate financial needs such as paying down debt and then to help accomplish their long-term savings goals.
  • First fund the TSP and then other savings. In advance of the January 2009 salary increase and because the TSP contribution limits will be increasing for 2009, employees should consider increasing their contributions to the TSP for 2009. Every individual should also have a minimum amount of liquid savings equal to six months of their average monthly expenses. They may also want to boost their investments in the form of contributions to IRAs and to non-retirement accounts.

About the Author Edward A. Zurndorfer is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP) and Enrolled Agent in Silver Spring, Maryland. He is also a registered representative with Multi-Financial Securities Corporation (Branch A9X), member FINRA/SIPC, also located in Silver Spring, Maryland

http://www.myfederalretirement.com/public/304.cfm

 

[Guest2]

Fund Managers Give The (I) Fund A Boost ! By giving the
(I) Fund approximately .86% greater return then the
EFA, It was a GREAT DAY to be a (I) Funder ! But now
its in the Overpayment Side of the O/D Tracker and God
only knows when the payback will rear its ugly head ! :blink:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/24/08)+0.8559% -0.0785 tsp cents:blink:

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met):blink:
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -41.99%.....C=...-40.79%....-12.91% (my figures):embarrest:
DW.= -47.29%.....S=.. -46.08%....
EFA= -48.33%......I=...-47.42%...
AGG= -04.71%.....F=.. +00.23%...
...........................G=...+03.44%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -12.07%.....C=...-11.84%....+03.66%(my figures)
DW.= -18.96%.....S=...-18.67%....
EFA= -09.00%......I=...-08.29%...
AGG=+00.68%.....F=...+01.84%...
...........................G=...+00.25%..

 

[350zCommTech]

I Bailed To The (G) Fund.
(MOSTLY !) I Still Want To Play !

97%(G)-0%(F)-1%(C)-1%(S)-1%(I)

So, did your strategy turn a nice profit? I'm thinking about deploying this strategy come December.

Keep up the good work.

 

[Guest2]

So, did your strategy turn a nice profit? I'm thinking about deploying this strategy come December.

Keep up the good work.

First, congratulations are in order for being 100% in a very profitable risk fund.

While comparing my results, I ended up with a additional +.53%
gain, over and above the return I would have gotten if I simply did a
Buy&Hold, during the same time period, at my original 85-0-5-5-5 allocation.
Although I took much of my money off the table and left enough at risk to
squeeze out a few pennies should the opportunity come. But I'm leaning
towards the speculated drop, thus, I did a (Back-To-The-G) IFT today.
One of the best parts of this thing is that I was able to drive my original 15%
of risk, up to 19% before AND if I did a increase <1%IFT today, it would have
driven my risk up to 22%. All the while being out of unrestricted IFT's. This
works with any percentage, however, the amount at risk must be prioritized
over the small gains you may have while using this in December. Good Luck !

 

[350zCommTech]

First, congratulations are in order for being 100% in a very profitable risk fund.

While comparing my results, I ended up with a additional +.53%
gain, over and above the return I would have gotten if I simply did a
Buy&Hold, during the same time period, at my original 85-0-5-5-5 allocation.
Although I took much of my money off the table and left enough at risk to
squeeze out a few pennies should the opportunity come. But I'm leaning
towards the speculated drop, thus, I did a (Back-To-The-G) IFT today.
One of the best parts of this thing is that I was able to drive my original 15%
of risk, up to 19% before AND if I did a increase <1%IFT today, it would have
driven my risk up to 22%. All the while being out of unrestricted IFT's. This
works with any percentage, however, the amount at risk must be prioritized
over the small gains you may have while using this in December. Good Luck !

Thanks SB,

I just have to keep reminding myself that my second move will have to be 1% in all the risk funds. I hope to do it correctly. Then, maybe with some luck, I'll be able to queeze out a 1% gain for rest of the month.

 

[Guest2]

Thanks SB,

I just have to keep reminding myself that my second move will have to be 1% in all the risk funds. I hope to do it correctly. Then, maybe with some luck, I'll be able to queeze out a 1% gain for rest of the month.

If your risk tolerance dictates 2% in the (C)-(S) or (I) then you have that
capability as well. Lady has spread 1% over every fund available. Even in
the (L) Funds. What ever your comfort zone can withstand. Best of Luck

 

[XL-entLady]

Squale, just a quick report on my <1% account experiment. Today I was able to move almost 4% more of my TSP account into equities (because I have percentages in all the L accounts in addition to CSI). This is working almost too well. There appears to be a possibility of being able to move as much as about 10% to 12% a week into equities! (Which is too fast to be a true 'dollar cost average' under most circumstances, but still a nice thought.)

When the choices are to DCA or to be stuck in IFT jail, this <1% stuff rocks!

Now if we just didn't have to decide whether to move our <1% or not right in the middle of each of these volatile trading days ....

Thanks again for teaching us!
Lady

 

[eccougar]

Squalebear, last week I moved a total of over $4800.00.
With the nice jump in the markets, I made over 4% on the shares I added to
the S-Fund. I bought 3 days last week.

Date Shares In Price
17-Nov 139.2109 11.1089 $1,546.4800
19-Nov 169.7519 10.1934 $1,730.3490
20-Nov 165.2838 9.425 $1,557.7998

474.2466 11/24 Sh Pr. $4,834.6288
474.2466 10.6717 $5,061.0174
G/L $226.3886 4.68%

 

[JTH]

Hey there O'l SqualeBear, I'm glad to see you're having fun with your new 1% system. It seems today was a good day to play the retreat into the G-Fund. Great timing!!!

 

[Guest2]

Squale, just a quick report on my <1% account experiment. Today I was able to move almost 4% more of my TSP account into equities (because I have percentages in all the L accounts in addition to CSI). This is working almost too well. There appears to be a possibility of being able to move as much as about 10% to 12% a week into equities! (Which is too fast to be a true 'dollar cost average' under most circumstances, but still a nice thought.)

When the choices are to DCA or to be stuck in IFT jail, this <1% stuff rocks!

Now if we just didn't have to decide whether to move our <1% or not right in the middle of each of these volatile trading days ....

Thanks again for teaching us!
Lady

I'm certainly glad your capable of looking deeper into the figures and
coming up with a objective view of the data. Having limited knowledge
of spreadsheet formulas and how they can work towards a thorough
evaluation is not one of my strengths. But I think I got the basics of
DCA'ing under my belt.:embarrest:

Being only 3% at risk at this point in November, when I had the option
of being 22% at risk for tomorrow, gives me a great deal of satisfaction.
That 19% swing gives a sense of having more control over my money.
As you said, the middle of the day decision making leads to uncertainty.
Afternoon surprises come way too often in this volitile environment. But
for me, as well as yourself, it beats the heck out of IFT Jail.:toung:

It should be known to all that; this method carries no guarantee of gains.
Loses may very well occur at the end of the day or even the month. If
Oscar and a few other Professional Traders are correct and we continue
to trade within the downward channel that has form, we need to be
extremely cautious and highly selective (as always) concerning our next
month (December) entry point. If we can enter on the low end of the
downward channel, our first two unrestricted IFT's could make us some
nice returns. If I totaly bailed out to the (G) on 11/04/08, I would have
been +7.01% MTD right now. Instead, I opted to lower my risk in hopes
to pick up more gains. It didn't quite work out that way. The market
continued its march downward and now I'm +3.66% MTD as a result.
So if your a high % investor and like to play with double digit %'s in each
fund, I can't say it too often. Please be careful and always remember
that you always have the (G) at your disposal. Even if it means sucking
it up and locking in a loss by bailing. If we were in a Bull Market, that
would be different. Thats when the reward tends to outway the risk.
and taking

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear, last week I moved a total of over
******. With the nice jump in the markets, I made over 4% on the shares
I added to the S-Fund. I bought 3 days last week.

Thats sounds great EC ! Just remember to subtract what you lost in the
(G) Fund as a result of your trades, as you sold shares out of the (G) in
order to buy those risk fund shares. One last thing, try to avoid using
dollar figures as it makes for unforseen complications when you post them
in a open forum. Its best to stick with percentages. I won't post how
many shares I have in each fund either, for the same reason. I have pushed
the envelope abit when I posted how many shares I've gained by using
the <1%IFT method. But we want to be cautious with our account info.
Again, Congratulations on making that 4% and thanks for sharing it with us.

 

[Guest2]

Hey there O'l SqualeBear, I'm glad to see you're having fun with your new 1% system. It seems today was a good day to play the retreat into the G-Fund. Great timing!!!

Having Fun ? I think not, I'm a steaming pile of nerve endings ! (LoL) :nuts:

My retreat was made because I'm also a Jellyfish in a Ocean of Bad News!:nuts:

JTH, thanks for the support you bring to my thread and to me as a whole.
I always enjoy your posts. Please continue to do so.

 

[Guest2]

Currently, the market is up today. With my bailing back to the (G)Fund,
with everything but 1% in the risk funds, my B&H vs. <1% comparisons
show that I'm taking a hit. Specifically, the <1% method was beating
the B&H method yesterday by +.5380%. At this point in time, that has
shrunk to +.3522% and will change depending on the market throughout
the day. In fact, it will change throughout the remainder of the last few
trading days of November. I'll keep ya posted.

 

[Guest2]

I see that the (I) Fund is still up big and the US Market is going down.
At this point, I'm looking to wait for a better entry point come December.

100% (G) until December 2nd or sometime thereafter !

I'll keep you posted on the B&H vs. <1%IFT comparison I'm tracking !

 

[Guest2]

Boy, Look at that AGG fly upward ! A whopping +1.72% currently !
Its too bad that the (F) Fund rarely reflects the gains/losses that
accurately. Don't expect the (F) Fund to have that kind of move !:worried: