Squalebear's Account Talk

[JTH]

"FRIENDS DON'T LET FRIENDS BUY AND HOLD" - Well done !

The only thing friends should be BUY & HOLDING is the G fund

 

[XL-entLady]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=195222&postcount=439

I've encountered a glitch with my first <1% IFT. :worried: I'll let you know how it shakes out.

Lady

Never mind! It was a "rounding" glitch in my spreadsheets. You can't round to whole numbers or 2 places in a spreadsheet when the TSP carries it to 4 places! :embarrest: :embarrest:

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Glad things worked out for ya Lady.

My next goal is to find out how I can take a Query Formula in a
Excel Spreadsheet and have it work in my MSWorks Spreadsheet.
I love the automatic updating feature I saw, but haven't a clue if
it would even be possible. I spend tons of time "Manually" updating
my Works Spreadsheet and I'm finding it more difficult each day.

 

[Guest2]

Charts Predict: S&P 660 Today, Bottom 'Within Days'
The broader stock market needs an "exhaustion" of selling before buyers can take control, but that time is close, according to charts of the S&P 500 index, independent trader Bill McLaren said Friday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27835414

 

[Warrenlm]

Other quotes:

Oscar’s video (evening 19 Nov) predicted S&P 723, possibly via 900, with a possible 688 to follow.
An CNBC contributor this morning cited Fibonacci levels: DOW either rebounds to close above 79xx or will fall to 66xx

But neither said the lowest was “the bottom”

With Waxman’s elevation, business has a whole new world coming to them. Has that been reckoned in?

 

[TerpTrader]

I think we might be setting up for a nice Thanksgiving week bounce - considering the strong 58-year history for these next few days - and fueled by severe recent selloff.
I'm in stocks 40%....which means I remain a liiiiittle cautious

 

[Guest2]

I think we might be setting up for a nice Thanksgiving week bounce - considering the strong 58-year history for these next few days - and fueled by severe recent selloff.
I'm in stocks 40%....which means I remain a liiiiittle cautious

How much historical information had pre-depression type weight being
carried on the Markets Shoulders. A consumer based economy is heavily
dependant on retail. I think it extremely intelligent to remain aliiiiitle cautious

 

[Guest2]

Being that the market is mixed at this point with the (I) Fund's looking
very nice, I'm hold off on any IFT's today. The hope being that the
funds end UP slightly by days end. This would allow me to jack up my
Funds, if all works out, to 78-0-8-7-7. Currently they're 81-0-7-6-6.
All told, the decision will come on Monday at 11:45am. Good Luck !

 

[JTH]

I believe the Thanksgiving bounce will be more like a "thud"

The only good news we have is gas prices, which will translate into more Holiday travel.

The bad news? Folks are losing their jobs, and even more folks are worried about losing their jobs. This group of people are not going to be spending much money so long as their worried.

 

[poolman]

I believe the Thanksgiving bounce will be more like a "thud"

The only good news we have is gas prices, which will translate into more Holiday travel.

The bad news? Folks are losing their jobs, and even more folks are worried about losing their jobs. This group of people are not going to be spending much money so long as their worried.

I'll Bet the Feds cut Interest Rates Next Week, and the week after the Auto Companies get their Bridge Loan. This is only my short term prediction.

Anything after that, I'm hoping to be out because there will be allot of more Bad economic reports coming out.

I'm looking for a Big Move Up short term to Bail.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=7QCyhi-6EFc

 

[Guest2]

A final thought;

By doing the <1% IFT's, I did a calculation to see how expensive this has
been since I started doing this on November 10, 2008. Here's the figures;

Buy and Hold vs. <1% IFT
I currently have 0.3396% less (dollars) in my overall balance then I would
have if I simply left things alone and did a Buy & Hold on all funds.

I currently have +393.6873 more shares in (C).
I currently have +267.6655 more shares in (S).
I currently have +191.9435 more shares in (I).

I currently have -673.5767 less shares in (G).

The .34% that I mentioned above is tolerable from my perspective.
Lets hope we get a last hour buying spree and get closer to breaking even.

 

[Guest2]

I believe the Thanksgiving bounce will be more like a "thud"

The only good news we have is gas prices, which will translate into more Holiday travel.

The bad news? Folks are losing their jobs, and even more folks are worried about losing their jobs. This group of people are not going to be spending much money so long as their worried.

Lower gas prices are going towards gifts here. Stay-cation again !

 

[Guest2]

I'll Bet the Feds cut Interest Rates Next Week, and the week after the Auto Companies get their Bridge Loan. This is only my short term prediction.

Anything after that, I'm hoping to be out because there will be allot of more Bad economic reports coming out.

I'm looking for a Big Move Up short term to Bail.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=7QCyhi-6EFc

I share your belief Poolman.

 

[Guest2]

A final thought;

By doing the <1% IFT's, I did a calculation to see how expensive this has
been since I started doing this on November 10, 2008. Here's the figures;

Buy and Hold vs. <1% IFT

I currently have +393.6873 more shares in (C).
I currently have +267.6655 more shares in (S).
I currently have +191.9435 more shares in (I).

I currently have -673.5767 less shares in (G).

Boy, I must have been tired this morning. Forget my calculations this
morning, I was totaly off the accuracy train. With one exception. The
share accumulation part. Sorry if the information misguided anyone. I'll
do better in the future, I promise !

 

[Guest2]

THURSDAY:

Fund Managers Leave The O/D Tracker Within The
Overpayment Side. But This Is Not Expected To Last
And A Payback Of What We Owe Is Likely Come In A
Day Or Two.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08)+0.0000%+0.0000 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

THURSDAY:

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -48.76%.....C=...-47.70%....-15.31% (my figures)
DW.= -53.35%.....S=.. -52.37%....
EFA= -54.48%......I=...-53.63%...
AGG= -03.73%.....F=.. +00.38%...
...........................G=...+03.40%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -22.33%.....C=...-22.14%....+01.06%(my figures)
DW.= -28.28%.....S=...-28.17%....
EFA= -19.83%......I=...-19.11%...
AGG=+01.50%.....F=...+01.99%...
...........................G=...+00.21%..

 

[Guest2]

FRIDAY:

Fund Managers Don't Surprise ! A Payback Of What We
Owed Was Paid Today And Drove The O/D Tracker Back
To The Deficit Side. Almost 1% Down The Toilet !

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents
(11/19/08)+0.7053%+0.0048 tsp cents
(11/20/08)+0.4283% -0.0446 tsp cents
(11/21/08) -0.9898%+0.0732 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

FRIDAY:

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -45.52%.....C=...-44.40%....-14.21% (my figures):embarrest:
DW.= -50.78%.....S=.. -49.63%....
EFA= -51.25%......I=...-50.79%...
AGG= -04.50%.....F=.. +00.39%...
...........................G=...+03.41%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -17.42%.....C=...-17.22%....+02.24%(my figures)
DW.= -24.32%.....S=...-24.04%....
EFA= -14.14%......I=...-14.16%...
AGG=+00.69%.....F=...+02.01%...
...........................G=...+00.22%..

 

[justbizness45]

A final thought;

By doing the <1% IFT's, I did a calculation to see how expensive this has
been since I started doing this on November 10, 2008. Here's the figures;

Buy and Hold vs. <1% IFT
I currently have 0.3396% less (dollars) in my overall balance then I would
have if I simply left things alone and did a Buy & Hold on all funds.

I currently have +393.6873 more shares in (C).
I currently have +267.6655 more shares in (S).
I currently have +191.9435 more shares in (I).

I currently have -673.5767 less shares in (G).

The .34% that I mentioned above is tolerable from my perspective.
Lets hope we get a last hour buying spree and get closer to breaking even.

SB, if you look at it that way & if you have 100K invested it cost you $340 to make those trades. I don't look at it quite the same as you though because not only did you accumulate more shares the DCA factor lowered your overall share price (if you bought in while price decreasing). I'm not sure how you capture and identify those savings though. Your gains today on these shares more than made up for your $340 so...Congratulations your DCAing made you at least $495.:nuts: That is more than you would have made leaving those shares in G. I can see how this could add a percent or two to your gains over the course of a year in a less volatile market. I just don't have the math skills to figure out a good method to track it.:suspicious:

 

[wv-girl]

A final thought;

By doing the <1% IFT's, I did a calculation to see how expensive this has
been since I started doing this on November 10, 2008. Here's the figures;

Buy and Hold vs. <1% IFT
I currently have 0.3396% less (dollars) in my overall balance then I would
have if I simply left things alone and did a Buy & Hold on all funds.

I currently have +393.6873 more shares in (C).
I currently have +267.6655 more shares in (S).
I currently have +191.9435 more shares in (I).

I currently have -673.5767 less shares in (G).

The .34% that I mentioned above is tolerable from my perspective.
Lets hope we get a last hour buying spree and get closer to breaking even.

I had noticed a difference in my acct also, and finally figured out that was what they charged for the transaction. Thought they said they could not do that. TSP Caught in another lie.