JB45, Thanks for answering Momacs question. I'm up late and off duty.
The crooks need a little break from me, don't you think ?
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Squalebear's Account Talk
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JB45, Thanks for answering Momacs question. I'm up late and off duty.
The crooks need a little break from me, don't you think ?
justbizness45
Member
JB45, I'd be interested in your "Break Even" analysis when completed. Oh
yes, please don't call it a strategy just yet. It's a untested method that
may or may not help others. Should you develope a strategy through the
use of this tool, I'd be appreciative to hear how it turns out for you. I'm
sure others would be interested as well. Thanks for the kind words and
for making this thread so special.
Pretty simple really. I took the fund share cost * #bought shares = total cost for each transaction (not total shares but actual shares purchased). Add up total cost for each transaction/total # shares you have and that is your actual DCA per share. When the TSP fund reaches that price I consider it break even for that trip out of G. Anything higher is making money lower is a loss if I go back to G. As the prices drop it gives you a solid indicator of when you are even to bail if needed as your DCA drops.
As an example I bought 10%C at 10.70 on 11/7. Lets say 100 shares for easy math.
Then I bought another 10%C at 10.04 on 11/14 another 100 shares.
Then I bought 1% on 11/18 or 1 share @ 9.88.
201 shares cost 2083.88 or 10.37/share. C fund @ 10.37 is my break even. Each < 1 % IFT will drive that number down so I thought it would be good to know where that number is at. I hope I haven't over simplified this.:embarrest:
justbizness45
Member
As long as they stay where they belong.......
Good Morning,
Thats a mighty big hit your taking today. At the current S&P500 level (-3.0%),
I expect you'll take approximately 1.50% of your balance out of the (G) and have
it go into the (C),,,,,if you have no other money in the risk funds. I hope you see
a rebound soon, We've got alot of bad news out there.
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wv-girl
Member
I did the same thing.. to me it is like an extra contribution but on my own timing. It does lower the overall price per share. And I only have 50% in. Taking a bit hit anyway. It can't continue to always go down, can it?
Nobody is sure about how low it will go. The (S) hit a new intraday low
today. Maybe we can come off the lows and get a bounce come tomorrow.
Heck, even today would be ok. If the Market rallied in the afternoon, alls
you did was put some profit back into the (G). But I don't think were going
to see that kind of bounce today.
wv-girl
Member
That is ok with me -either way it goes. Thanks for your thoughts.
Davehop21
Member
Thanks SB, I was able to get 15 more C shares @9.28 and lower my cost per share to 10.18. Now the next question is can I do it again today if it looks like we are going lower. I am currentlt at 50% and wonder does it use the closing price or adjust after the close and then add to get the percentage back to 50%. I saw what your theory can do in a positive way if you can call it that. It appears to me that all the experts and chartists really have no idea what is going to happen so the best thing to do is take advantage of your idea whenever possible and just ride this out. I believe in the long run we will look back at these prices as golden and be better off for having taken the risk and been invested. Thanks for your idea and best of luck to all of us.
Dave at VA
Dave at VA
justbizness45
Member
SB, I'm not sure if you've already covered this but here goes. I was 5% F fund as part of my allocation. Today my F was at 5.17% of my total allocation and the software let me round it up to a 6% allocation which is over my original. My fourth IFT this month. It seems to me this might be useful during a extended rally to increase shares as the price goes up. 
Not that we are going to see one in the near term.:blink:
Not that we are going to see one in the near term.:blink:
luv2read
Active member
Yeh, SNB cut interest another shocker 1% and is expected to do it again in December. Euro economy down the tubes. With G and F > C, S, I funds now, I'm playing contrarian and moving money into those; IMO the rate cut will give a small bounce.
If that be your strategy and your willing to take some more hits down
before it goes up, I can only hope we see a rally (SUSTAINED) fairly
soon. I've been using the 8k gain I received on the 4th to buy on the
way down, as your doing. I still have 10% down room to play, but thats
only two 5% down days. Good Luck Dave !
If you want to maintane the 50% in your fund for Friday, you must do a
IFT today at the same percentages that are listed. ie... 50%(G) 50%(C)
and after the close, they will use the closing share prices for both funds.
If the (C) Fund ends DOWN, you pick up more shares in the (C) and lose
shares in the (G). But you'll increase the dollar amount in the (C) in hopes
for a rally. If you left it alone today, you would keep the shares that you
already have, but you'll have to live with the dollar amount that your (C)
fell to as a result of the down day. In turn that also lowers the percentage
in the (C) as well.
If the (C) Fund surprises us with a rally and it ends UP for the day, you'll
take shares out of the (C) and increase your (G). Its like locking in your
gains just like the (L) Funds do automatically while maintaning that 50%.
SB, I'm not sure if you've already covered this but here goes. I was 5% F fund as part of my allocation. Today my F was at 5.17% of my total allocation and the software let me round it up to a 6% allocation which is over my original. My fourth IFT this month. It seems to me this might be useful during a extended rally to increase shares as the price goes up.
Not that we are going to see one in the near term.:blink:
Thats how I've been able to build my percentages up from 5% to the
whopping 7% I have in the (C) Fund today.
At this point, better then expected bad news could help. Another Interest
Rate Cut could help. But were under 8000 in the Dow and I don't feel very
confident about anything right now. Maybe, being a Contrarian isn't such a
bad thing to be. The hole is deep, but the Market always surprises me.
SB,
I know you did an adjustment yesterday. Ballanced out the .% Are you looking at keeping your %'s with another IFT today? I am thinking about it. Looking to be another red day.
The closer we get to December 2nd, the more greatful I am that I'm playing
with only 19% of my TSP Account. I have about 3 more days like this one
left. I'm able to absorb 3 more before I'll be forced to strongly reconsider
my position. To answer your question; Yes, I plan on doing another <1%
IFT today. My %'s will look like this; 81-0-7-6-6 and that is exactly what
I must enter in order to pick up shares at a cheaper price.
Thanks SB,
I went back and looked at your 11/10 post just to verify your thinking. I was trying to decide if it would be a smart thing to keep my % at 79-5-6-5-5 since the market is tanking again. The only thing that is going to hurt me is the F fund. Funny, yesterday the F was green most of the day and finished at .03 and I lost shares.
Oh well!! I think I will reinforce my % today to gain a few more shares anyway.:nuts: Thanks again.Similar threads
