Squalebear's Account Talk

[Guest2]

A (I) Funder Market Note:

Even though the (I) Fund has (and is) lagging
behind the US Market Funds, don't forget that
the (I) Funds has a 0.10 Cent Deficit it owes us.
The Fund Managers could add this to the returns
and could allow the (I) Fund to have a gain today.

That reminds me, I failed to post the O/D Tracker last night. Busy,Busy,Busy!
I'll do both yesterdays and todays later tonight.

 

[Guest2]

Its Official, I will not be doing a <1% IFT today.

Currently my risk funds stand at 6.06%(C) 6.02%(S) 6.01%(I)
By waiving this action today, and if the Market closes like it is now,
I'll be able to bump up my funds to 7% tomorrow for Thursday's
trading. Good Luck To All !

 

[nasa1974]

If each fund rose over the 5% mark because of a up day today, you would
be lowering your dollar amount in each fund. Instead of having,,,say 5.2%
in the funds tomorrow, you'll have 5%. You'd also be taking away shares
in each fund. So, if you waive doing one today, maybe tomorrow you'll be
able to turn those 5's into 6's, just like the (C) fund has now.

Gotcha, I was thinking now, not what would happen after the bell and the account changes.

 

[GUCHI]

SB
would your system work for someone already in stocks say the (I) fund to his or her advantage ???

thanks all

 

[XL-entLady]

I haven't even looked at the (L) Fund aspect of this method, as the (L) Funds consist of all related funds within. Including the (G). Boy, that is alittle more complicated for right now. There are so many members, both old and new, that aren't even sure about the affects of our normal IFT abilities. Throwing this into the mix can really mess with some members heads. I want to avoid that. So everyone should know, that each person should feel very comfortable with their knowledge of IFT's before messing with this.

When I started to pay attention to your <1% idea, I looked at L Funds and found out the following:

If you add all the five L Fund percentages together and divide by 5, the allocation comes out to:

G 38%
F 8%
C 28.2%
S 10.4%
I 15.4%

I carried the formula out to tenths to make it more accurate, so that it adds to 100%.

So on the spreadsheet where I keep track of my TSP Fund share prices and percentages, I added a column that adds in those percentages listed above multiplied by the percentage that I have in the L Funds. In order to make this work I have to put the same equal percentage into each of the 5 L Funds.

Is all that clear as mud? :blink: Not sure I explained it well enough that it will be of help to anyone else. But it allows me to have 5 more ways to DCA into the markets on a day that I think market prices are going down.

The obvious down-side is that any <1% DCA-ing IFT's that I make are split out into the percentages above and there's not much I can do about that. I know I could play with the percentages in each L Fund to get an allocation I was happier with, but I want the dust to settle a bit on what I'm doing now before I try to complicate it further. :cheesy:

For whatever it's worth and that may not be a lot!

Lady

 

[KevinD]

Its Official, I will not be doing a <1% IFT today.

Currently my risk funds stand at 6.06%(C) 6.02%(S) 6.01%(I)
By waiving this action today, and if the Market closes like it is now,
I'll be able to bump up my funds to 7% tomorrow for Thursday's
trading. Good Luck To All !

SB - Have you had a situation where the next day the market has a really crappy day and a <1% IFT that has already been submitted becomes a >1% IFT? What happens then?

 

[KevinD]

But it allows me to have 5 more ways to DCA into the markets on a day that I think market prices are going down.

Seems to me that the idea is share accumulation. In order to accumulate you would have to leave them there.

In other words, share accumulation in C, S, and I would need to be left there for a longer term B&H type strategy.

How does share accumulation in the L funds fit with a longer term strategy? Diversification?

 

[Guest2]

SB
would your system work for someone already in stocks say the (I) fund to his or her advantage ??? thanks all

Sorry I wasn't able to answer questions sooner.

Since we are talking about <1% percentages, the lower your allocations
are the less risk your facing. If you have 50% already in the (C) Fund
and it drops to 49.7% the next day, do you think the added .3% will at
some point over take your losses with that much at stake. I don't think
so either. I'm currently working with a starting base of 5% in each fund.
I'm willing to up the shares based on my thoughts of a major bounce up.
But I'm only putting at risk a total of 15% within three funds. A 5% loss
in the (C) with a allocation of 5% is only a days loss of -.25% of my total
account balance. BUT, a 5% loss of 50% is a whopping -2.50% loss. So
you see, your always able to round up after your 2 IFT limit has been
reached. But at what cost. I personally wouldn't use this method with
that much in play. This week we've seen the market drop of 5% and 2%
in the last 2 days before today. Each day the market drops, the further
away from the break even point you'll be. Again, it keeps you in the game
but at what cost ! Will you get lucky (like in October) and see a 10% gain
in one day? Maybe you will ! And I'm sure you'd like as much in the Funds
that you could have in there, instead of being locked into the (G) Fund.
But losses are going to happen and caution is extremely important.

 

[Guest2]

When I started to pay attention to your <1% idea, I looked at L Funds and found out the following:

If you add all the five L Fund percentages together and divide by 5, the allocation comes out to:

G 38%
F 8%
C 28.2%
S 10.4%
I 15.4%

I carried the formula out to tenths to make it more accurate, so that it adds to 100%.

So on the spreadsheet where I keep track of my TSP Fund share prices and percentages, I added a column that adds in those percentages listed above multiplied by the percentage that I have in the L Funds. In order to make this work I have to put the same equal percentage into each of the 5 L Funds.

Is all that clear as mud? :blink: Not sure I explained it well enough that it will be of help to anyone else. But it allows me to have 5 more ways to DCA into the markets on a day that I think market prices are going down.

The obvious down-side is that any <1% DCA-ing IFT's that I make are split out into the percentages above and there's not much I can do about that. I know I could play with the percentages in each L Fund to get an allocation I was happier with, but I want the dust to settle a bit on what I'm doing now before I try to complicate it further. :cheesy:

For whatever it's worth and that may not be a lot! Lady

Thanks Lady, your perrrrr-fection !

 

[Guest2]

SB - Have you had a situation where the next day the market has a really crappy day and a <1% IFT that has already been submitted becomes a >1% IFT? What happens then?

Each time the market goes down on the day following a <1% IFT, I have
a decision to make. Do I do it again and buy more shares cheaper, leave it
alone and maintane my current share level or bail out either partially or all
together. You can never have a >1% IFT after restrictions have been met.

 

[Guest2]

Seems to me that the idea is share accumulation. In order to accumulate you would have to leave them there.

In other words, share accumulation in C, S, and I would need to be left there for a longer term B&H type strategy.
Not all together true, your current shares gain or lose VALUE in as little as one days time. You don't accumulate shares when you Buy and Hold unless you Contribute to the Funds biweekly. Instead of waiting, I do it daily. But this is as close to a Buy
and Hold type strategy that I'll ever allow myself to follow.

How does share accumulation in the L funds fit with a longer term strategy? Diversification?
Personally, I don't like the (L) Funds because I prefer to have control over my money and have little time left for them to be worth my time. But I'm always recomending the (L) 2040 for those just starting out, who don't have the free time to dicker with IFT's. I'll determine my own diversification at this point in the game. I'll never be able to blame the TSP should I fail to meet my investment goals, instead, I'll have to look in the mirror. I prefer it that way !

I hope this helps answer some of your questions !

 

[Guest2]

I would be extremely selfish if I failed to mention the following;

This <1% thing I do is not fully tested through all types of situations.
Last week, I saw the benefit of receiving a 1.07% gain on Thursday.
On Wednesday, I had less money in my account. But because I did a
<1% IFT on Wednesday, I saw a nicer gain as a result on Thursday.
By letting it ride until Friday I experienced a loss, but was capable of
driving my allocations up from 5% to 6%. Monday came and left me
with another loss for the day. Friday's and Monday's losses wiped out
my gains from Thursday. Today, I did not do a <1% IFT thinking the
market would end "up" for the day. The (S) Fund won't be so lucky
come the 7:30pm update of share prices. Tomorrow, I think I'll be able
to jack up my (C) and (I) to 7%. I'm still trying to be in the risk funds
for the mega bounce I had hoped for. It might never come. Only time,
will tell if I should have bailed to the (G) Fund instead of accumulating
shares on the way down.

But that was a decision that I made. I don't want anyone to lose
money because of my convictions. At the end of the day, alls I wanted
to do was let other members know that they have options. More then
what was known by the mass majority. I take some comfort that more
members are now aware that they can bump their allocations up OR
pick up some cheaper shares, even though they used up their 2 IFT's.

 

[Guest2]

Sorry I Missed Yesterday's O/D Tracker Post !
Thursday the 12th was the last day that the (I) Fund had a significant
gain (+6.94%). But as you can see in the O/D Tracker it was also the
day the Fund Managers cut the possible gain by 1.57% by adding to the
Deficit. Today, we sit in the Low Deficit Area (Black) within the Tracker
and should see some stability come back.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)+0.2385%+0.1035 tsp cents
(11/18/08)+0.0615%+0.0958 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -41.49%.....C=...-40.30%....-13.00% (my figures)
DW.= -45.27%.....S=.. -44.03%....
EFA= -48.38%......I=...-48.04%...
AGG= -04.02%.....F=.. +00.40%...
...........................G=...+03.38%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -11.32%.....C=...-11.11%....+03.56%(my figures)
DW.= -15.85%.....S=...-15.59%....
EFA= -09.09%......I=...-09.37%...
AGG=+01.19%.....F=...+02.02%...
...........................G=...+00.19%..

 

[XL-entLady]

I would be extremely selfish if I failed to mention the following;

SB, I'm not sure that a person could use the words "Squale" and "selfish" in the same sentence!

This <1% thing I do is not fully tested through all types of situations.
.... I'm still trying to be in the risk funds for the mega bounce I had hoped for. It might never come. Only time, will tell if I should have bailed to the (G) Fund instead of accumulating shares on the way down.

But that was a decision that I made. I don't want anyone to lose money because of my convictions. At the end of the day, alls I wanted to do was let other members know that they have options. More then what was known by the mass majority. I take some comfort that more members are now aware that they can bump their allocations up OR pick up some cheaper shares, even though they used up their 2 IFT's.

SB, that was nice of you to add the disclaimer. I think it was important for the people who might be new to the site. I absolutely agree that the <1% IFT isn't a one-size-fits-all fix. It does NOT guarantee that it will be the right thing for every situation.

What it does for me is that it allows me to DCA into equities even though I'm retired and not buying more shares each month. It adds a theoretical possibility of up to 3.5% to my equity shares each market trading day - - up to almost one percent in each of C, S and I directly and then up to another 1/2 percent in equity funds if invested in all L Funds. If I use my two normal IFT's early in the month, then being able to DCA up to 3.5% every trading day after that puts me into a hugely different position at the end of the month than sitting at my last allocation twiddling my thumbs and waiting to be let out of IFT jail!

Now, I know that DCA-ing (dollar cost averaging, for the new folks; do yourselves a favor and google it) into equities is only a good thing if a person thinks (1) that we are close to a bottom or (2) that they are risking a small enough portion of their holdings that they are willing to ride it down.

So do I think we're close to a bottom? I have no idea! I don't think the market is going to turn bullish tomorrow, or next week. For all I know, the housing indicator could be right and we're going to lose another 400 points! (As my Native American friends would say, "Pah for that thought!") But I am risking a small enough portion of my overall TSP account as I learn how to do this DCA <1% thing that the risk is worth it to me. And I'll add cheaper shares as it goes down and keep my hand in the game that way.

And thanks again for the lessons!

Lady

 

[justbizness45]

Well SB, I tried your <1% IFT today. As always take my play and do the opposite and you will do well. I bought C @ +.10, S @ -.03 and I @ + .03. I really expected the selloff that occured but not the bounce. The transfer was accepted and I moved from G into C/S/I and moved some from F into G. My 3rd IFT for the month. Thank you for sharing This concept is awesome and very useful but in this market with the volatility we are seeing the noon deadline can still cause you problems. IMO This is true for any IFT right now though. I started a spreadsheet so I can track what my true DCA is to give a real break even point on this entry from G. Thanks again for the great strategy, JB45

 

[momacs]

If a person still has an IFT left and was to do this with rounding up or down on the percentages already there, will this count as the second IFT?

 

[justbizness45]

If a person still has an IFT left and was to do this with rounding up or down on the percentages already there, will this count as the second IFT?

SBs probably doing his duty keeping the crooks in the slammer, so I will answer. Unfortunately, yes. Your first 2 IFTs a month count no matter how you move between funds.

 

[Guest2]

SB, that was nice of you to add the disclaimer. I think it was important for the people who might be new to the site. I absolutely agree that the <1% IFT isn't a one-size-fits-all fix. It does NOT guarantee that it will be the right thing for every situation.

What it does for me is that it allows me to DCA into equities even though I'm retired and not buying more shares each month. It adds a theoretical possibility of up to 3.5% to my equity shares each market trading day - - up to almost one percent in each of C, S and I directly and then up to another 1/2 percent in equity funds if invested in all L Funds. If I use my two normal IFT's early in the month, then being able to DCA up to 3.5% every trading day after that puts me into a hugely different position at the end of the month than sitting at my last allocation twiddling my thumbs and waiting to be let out of IFT jail!

Now, I know that DCA-ing (dollar cost averaging, for the new folks; do yourselves a favor and google it) into equities is only a good thing if a person thinks (1) that we are close to a bottom or (2) that they are risking a small enough portion of their holdings that they are willing to ride it down.

So do I think we're close to a bottom? I have no idea! I don't think the market is going to turn bullish tomorrow, or next week. For all I know, the housing indicator could be right and we're going to lose another 400 points! (As my Native American friends would say, "Pah for that thought!") But I am risking a small enough portion of my overall TSP account as I learn how to do this DCA <1% thing that the risk is worth it to me. And I'll add cheaper shares as it goes down and keep my hand in the game that way.

And thanks again for the lessons!

Lady

I'm more then willing to help anyone become better informed about our
capabilities and how to do certain things. Even if it means staying up all
night to do so. But I started to feel abit nervous about the possibilities
of it not working for some and working for others. As you said, this is
not meant for every circumstance or situation. I'm not very surprised
that the <1% IFT's will work for you. In fact, I'm very happy it does.
It gives me a sense of accomplishment and feeds my desire to help the
membership in any way I can. I stumbled onto this <1% IFT method,
just as I stumbled onto the O/D Tracker information I post. Before the
limits were imposed, it truly helped me determine a better time to enter
or stay away from the (I) Fund. I recognize that these are strange times
consisting of uncertainty, instability and fear. This too shall pass, quite
frankly, we all can't wait until it does. So I will continue to answer those
questions put before me, to the best of my ability. I'll continue to stumble
over things that might help others. I will respectfully share what I find
with all our membership as we share a common goal already. That being;
To have some fun, kick some tail and make some money for our families.

Pheeeew ! I'm turning into one big bag of 50 year old hot air, sorry ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

Well SB, I tried your <1% IFT today. As always take my play and do the opposite and you will do well. I bought C @ +.10, S @ -.03 and I @ + .03. I really expected the selloff that occured but not the bounce. The transfer was accepted and I moved from G into C/S/I and moved some from F into G. My 3rd IFT for the month. Thank you for sharing This concept is awesome and very useful but in this market with the volatility we are seeing the noon deadline can still cause you problems. IMO This is true for any IFT right now though. I started a spreadsheet so I can track what my true DCA is to give a real break even point on this entry from G. Thanks again for the great strategy, JB45

JB45, I'd be interested in your "Break Even" analysis when completed. Oh
yes, please don't call it a strategy just yet. It's a untested method that
may or may not help others. Should you develope a strategy through the
use of this tool, I'd be appreciative to hear how it turns out for you. I'm
sure others would be interested as well. Thanks for the kind words and
for making this thread so special.