Squalebear's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

TT
I believe that is the date of the global financial summit being held in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 14-15.

 

[nasa1974]

SB,

The force was with us today. I can tell Mrs. Darth-Bear that it was a good day today. Didn't make up for Wednesday and Thursdays sell off but it still turned into a profitable week with the "I" fund magic trick you pulled. :laugh: Thank you Master Jedi for leading the way.

 

[Guest2]

"But I fear that November
15th, 2008 will lead me back to the (G) Fund a day or two earlier"
What's significant about 11/15, sb ?

TT, there's another significant event occuring on the 15th as well.
I'll get back to you on this as I woke up late today (hate when that happens)
and I need to get dressed for duty.

O/D Tracker Update will occur later tonight folks, for the same
reasons I just stated above. Congratulations to Nasa and everyone
else in the risk funds. Stay Tuned. I'll be back by 11:00pm.

 

[Guest2]

SB,

The force was with us today. I can tell Mrs. Darth-Bear that it was a good day today. Didn't make up for Wednesday and Thursdays sell off but it still turned into a profitable week with the "I" fund magic trick you pulled. :laugh: Thank you Master Jedi for leading the way.

Luck sometimes has a strange way of popping up when you least expect it. ! Good for you Bro !

 

[Guest2]

The Fund Managers are keeping things interesting by not comiting to
either side of the O/D Tracker. However, its obviouslt clear to they are
forcing stability within a smaller range. Remember, the higher the Deficit
"They Owe Us" the greater the payback when it comes. We hope for a
payback on a up day, but a payback on a down day fights against the
loss. According to both the (C) and the (S) Funds, they are currently
in the Blue Overpayment Area which means that "We Owe Them" under
those funds.


YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.2007 TSP Cent Overpayment or -1.88%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2661 TSP Cent Overpayment or -2.14%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.0648 TSP Cent Overpayment or+0.46%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------ THEY OWE US ----
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming ! (OMG)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .2000 thru -.3000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.4000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .4000 thru -.6000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -36.60%.....C=...-35.37%....-11.67% (my figures)
DW.= -38.35%.....S=.. -37.11%....
EFA= -43.07%......I=...-42.62%...
AGG= -04.03%.....F=.. -00.06%...
...........................G=...+03.26%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -03.90%.....C=...-03.77%....+05.13%(my figures)
DW.= -05.21%.....S=...-05.16%....
EFA=+00.27%......I=...+00.09%...
AGG=+01.18%.....F=...+01.55%...
...........................G=...+00.07%..

 

[Guest2]

After making the best effort that I could, for the life of me, I can't find
out why November 15th, 2008 is said to be a downside killer market day.
I keep remembering something about Hedge Fund redemptions or maybe
something similar. If anyone has a clue as to why the 15th is a date to
mark on the Calandar (concerning the stock market) could you please
share your information with us. Thanks !

 

[akpackfan]

This was posted by a member over at TSP Center about the coming week:

"Hedge and Mutual fund redemptions should drive the market down next week (shareholders must have their year end requests in before November 15th) and again, fear and panic will spark massive sell-offs, creating an oversold market. Thats my take on it anyway !"

Maybe that gives some clue to the 15th??

 

[Guest2]

This was posted by a member over at TSP Center about the coming week:

"Hedge and Mutual fund redemptions should drive the market down next week (shareholders must have their year end requests in before November 15th) and again, fear and panic will spark massive sell-offs, creating an oversold market. Thats my take on it anyway !"

Maybe that gives some clue to the 15th??

NOT A CLUE ! THATS EXACTLY WHAT I REMEMBERED HEARING !
MANY THANKS TO YOU AF, ITS MOST DEFINATELY APPRECIATED !

So the answer has been found and Friday the 14th may turn out to
be a heck of a sell off day. I'm hoping for a little more upside before
hand.

 

[Warrenlm]

The Nov 15th date has been discussed for awhile and some speculation was that the hedge funds were already positioning themselves in the October sell offs, which may soften this coming week.

 

[Guest2]

The Nov 15th date has been discussed for awhile and some speculation was that the hedge funds were already positioning themselves in the October sell offs, which may soften this coming week.

I heard something similar on CNBC or Bloomberg TV. Can't remember
which one. Its still speculation as to weather any sell off as of late
have already discounted the market based on the pre - scheduled
redemptions. So, I guess caution is still wise. I'll be watching the
overnight Futures Market, early Friday morning, to see if I can get
a clue of the markets mentality concerning the above. Thanks for
the FYI, its really appreciated.

 

[Warrenlm]

I was wondering if perhaps you were looking at it from the other side....a big sigh of relief from the market and a rally.

 

[Guest2]

I was wondering if perhaps you were looking at it from the other side...

"I tell you its from the other side,,, You can't see the eyes of the demon,
until him come call'in. Dis is dred mon, truly dred" {Peditor2 Reference}

In a Bear Market, I tend to think, lean and react as if it be the worse case
scenario. Even in the midst of a temporary rally. I'll question how long and
for how much. I tend the be more right then wrong over the long haul. In
a Bull Market, I'd lean towards the "other side" and second guess the rumor.
No my friend, even if the negative affects of a redemption of Mutual and
Hedge Funds never appears over that weekend, I can't help but wonder if
my fear of the unknown won't be shared by other investors. I've kept 15%
of my money in the risk funds for any pre-redemption move upward. But
I must lean towards pulling the trigger when my gut starts to feel like I
drank a glass of sour milk. What can I say, it works for me.

A final note ! By the time we get to this Friday, we will have gone through
some pretty heavy Economic Reports which could drive the Market down
even more then the Redemption Fear; :worried:

Thursday=Intial Claims, Trade Balance, Treasury Budget
Friday=Retail Sales, Import & Export Prices, Business Inventories

I think the Market will Rally on Monday, Demonstrate a small continuation
Tuesday on extremely light volume or begin a 2 day pullback which would
include Wednesday. After that, we can only hope to beat expectations
on some very dismal economic reports. Of coarse, Earnings Reports will be
in focus before Thursday's Ecomonic Focus. (JMHO). :blink:

 

[Guest2]

E A G L E S
FANS
FRUSTRATED BY
G I A N T S
​

 

[Guest2]

Everything looks GREEN this hour with the US Futures Market. The Nikkei is
up over 4% ,,,,The dollar is up over 0.50%,,,,I'm hoping for a rally today,
lets hope this is a tell-tale-sign of things to come. $$$$$$$

 

[PessOptimist]

What shift you work?

 

[Guest2]

What shift you work?

I work 10:15pm until 6:15am Thursday thru Monday. HOWEVER, its my
turn to crack open a cold one and enjoy a little rest and relaxation this
week, as I'm on vacation as of today.

 

[Guest2]

"The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Tuesday, November 11th, in observance of Veterans Day. Transactions that would have been processed Tuesday night (November 11th) will be processed Wednesday night (November 12th) at Tuesday's closing share prices."​

Just a reminder, any IFT made today will become effective at the close of business
today (Monday) and you won't be able to bailout or change your choice until
Wednesday at 12noon. At the close of business on Wednesday, your money will be
moved for Thursday's Market. So in essence, your stuck with your choice for more
then just one day.​

***Example:​

Monday Noon: IFT is Requested.
Monday Night: IFT is Completed.​

Tuesday: TSP Holiday. No IFT Capabilities. Market is Open.​

Wednesday Noon: IFT is Requested. TSP and Market is Open.
Wednesday Night: IFT is Completed.​

Thursday: Back To Normal Operations, Your Money was Moved for todays business.​

Bottom Line: Your Monday's IFT is stuck in the Market until after the Market
Closes on Wednesday Night. So remember that when making a decision today.​

 

[Guest2]

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- As the market lurches into
what is likely to be another herky-jerky week, all eyes are
on the consumer.

Stocks, as represented by the S&P 500, shot up 18% in the seven trading
sessions through Election Day, bouncing off a 35% slump in the six weeks
before. "The rally was was a perfect bear market bounce, a total fakeout,"
said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equity trading at Canaccord
Adams. He said that stocks are going to get hit again amid the next
wave of hedge fund redemptions, which will cause increased selling.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/11/08/markets/markets_weekahead/index.htm

 

[WorkFE]

SB,
GRRRR. To find out your a G-Men fan. :suspicious:congrats
Well atleast my phils manned up.

No holiday in the asian market this week