McDuck
Well-known member
Way to go ! You played the election day rally, eh ?
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Squalebear's Account Talk
- Thread starter Guest2
- Start date
Way to go ! You played the election day rally, eh ?
Yes, but to be honest, I didn't know if a rally would occur before or after
the election. But I felt fairly confident that a rally would ocurr. One very
knowledgable member told me to get out of Dodge right afterwards. I did
not and I've been DCA'ing with <1% IFT's on the downtrend ever since.
If I knew Paulson was going to give a speech Today, I would have taken
the money and ran back to the (G) for the rest of the month. That man
opens his flap and the world comes crashing down around us.
What fries my bacon even more, I didn't get that damn Xmas Tree up yet ! :nuts:
While it appears that we are heading towards testing "the bottom" that some members have stated "already ocurred" on October 10th, 2008. I couldn't help but wonder if the Indexes and ETF's we use to track the progress of our TSP Funds show the same information. Here's what I've noticed;
The Dow: On a intraday basis the Dow dropped to 7773.71 and sprang
back up to the 8400 level and closed there. This holds alot of weight that
this could indeed be "the bottom" for the Dow. This Long Tailed day was
on October 10, 2008. By the way, the Dow is currently trading at that
same closing level today. It wasn't until October 27th, 2008 that we had
the lowest closing price in the Dow hit 8143.59. What does this mean ?
I'm no Chart expert, but I think we could see closing prices as low as
8143.59 without breaking the speculated bottom of 10/10/08.
The SPX: Just as the Dow did, on October 10th, 2008 we saw a possible
bottom when the Intraday Low dropped down to 839.80 with a closing
price of 900. Since then, we also saw on October 27th, 2008 the lowest
closing price of around 850. We are 23 points away from that closing price
today. Thats only -2.7% away.
The DWCPF: This is where it gets interesting ! The DWCPF never saw a
so called bottom on October 10, 2008. On October 28th, this fund had
dropped on a Intraday basis to 351.04 and closed at 380. On October 27
(the day before its possible bottom) the fund closed at approximately 358
and hasn't closed lower yet. No retest of the 351.04 level has ocurred
either. Today, we are trading approximately 2% above the lowest closing
price achieved on 10/27/08. Some could argue that the 10/10/08 could
have been a bottom, however, that bottom was broken on 10/28/08 and
we haven't seen a retest of this level to date.
The Conclusion: The Dow, S&P and W4500 appear to be trading in a
huge and highly volitile range since October 10, 2008. The bottom may
not have been established yet. After over a month, the answer (for me)
has not been forthcoming. Maybe thats why so many professionals will
not call the bottom just yet. They are all hopeful, just as I am. But to
put their rep on the line and be wrong, they will not let that happen. So
take anyones call of a "Bottom" with a grain of salt for now. Its just not
possible to call it now. Should time show that the bottom was established
on October 10, 2008, that call would be just as lucky as my election day
rally decision. Of coarse, this is just my humble opinion.
The Dow: On a intraday basis the Dow dropped to 7773.71 and sprang
back up to the 8400 level and closed there. This holds alot of weight that
this could indeed be "the bottom" for the Dow. This Long Tailed day was
on October 10, 2008. By the way, the Dow is currently trading at that
same closing level today. It wasn't until October 27th, 2008 that we had
the lowest closing price in the Dow hit 8143.59. What does this mean ?
I'm no Chart expert, but I think we could see closing prices as low as
8143.59 without breaking the speculated bottom of 10/10/08.
The SPX: Just as the Dow did, on October 10th, 2008 we saw a possible
bottom when the Intraday Low dropped down to 839.80 with a closing
price of 900. Since then, we also saw on October 27th, 2008 the lowest
closing price of around 850. We are 23 points away from that closing price
today. Thats only -2.7% away.
The DWCPF: This is where it gets interesting ! The DWCPF never saw a
so called bottom on October 10, 2008. On October 28th, this fund had
dropped on a Intraday basis to 351.04 and closed at 380. On October 27
(the day before its possible bottom) the fund closed at approximately 358
and hasn't closed lower yet. No retest of the 351.04 level has ocurred
either. Today, we are trading approximately 2% above the lowest closing
price achieved on 10/27/08. Some could argue that the 10/10/08 could
have been a bottom, however, that bottom was broken on 10/28/08 and
we haven't seen a retest of this level to date.
The Conclusion: The Dow, S&P and W4500 appear to be trading in a
huge and highly volitile range since October 10, 2008. The bottom may
not have been established yet. After over a month, the answer (for me)
has not been forthcoming. Maybe thats why so many professionals will
not call the bottom just yet. They are all hopeful, just as I am. But to
put their rep on the line and be wrong, they will not let that happen. So
take anyones call of a "Bottom" with a grain of salt for now. Its just not
possible to call it now. Should time show that the bottom was established
on October 10, 2008, that call would be just as lucky as my election day
rally decision. Of coarse, this is just my humble opinion.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Who's calling a "bottom" SB?
Just a opposing view. Or at least, the way I see it.
There's a thread that covers the topic of a "Bottom"
and I've found it interesting reading.
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=6382&highlight=Bottom
Steadygain
TSP Elite
It's a see saw volitile astmosphere. If the next few days would bring 5 to 8% Gains many would say 'the Bottom was reached'.
If the Markets dived after that - and kept diving - we'd all agree that the bottom will be reached only when it happens. My guess is 3/09, but what do I know??? nothing.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Why 3/09? More importantly, why a date?
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Actually it's kind of a random date. What I'm expecting in the very near future are for the Markets to give the appearance of turning around and essentially everyone thinking the worse is over.
Then because we are still in a BEAR MARKET - I suspect a new low will come later in the future...it may be 4/09 BUT I can't help but think it's further down the line and no where near the next month or two.
Hope that makes since.
Sorry you added the more importantly - "because most feel they need to know either where the bottom is; or when it's going to occur" - it's hard to avoid. I think all of us do it to some extent.
Your right Steady, in this volitile market its difficult to see that we're
not trending downward yet. Instead, we're trending sideways but with
huge extremes. That doesn't mean we won't see some possible 5%-8%
rebounds (been there, done that). In fact, if the volitility remains like it
is, we're going to see it several more times before the market decides to
either crash or begin a Bull Run. I don't know about the date you posted
but I know one thing sure as hell stands out in that statement. You don't
give yourself the credit that you deserve when it comes to your knowledge.
Its been a tough year for all of us. Keep that chin up and groove to the
vibes I'm sending !
WorkFE
Well-known member
Bad news seems to be just around the next corner and every industry is taking their turn smacking the ball around. Does it help to narrow the focus a bit and only track the top ten stocks in the C, S, and I fund (which ever your poison is) and use the G as a safety net? With all the volatility, broader methods just seem to defy logic at 7:30 pm every day.
P.S.
Forgot to logon yesterday- Happy Veterans Day to all who are or have served.
P.S.
Forgot to logon yesterday- Happy Veterans Day to all who are or have served.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thank you my sweet brother
and also for offering my daughter in such a lovely manner.
I am actually doing very well - because I am 100% G and therefore am unphased by what's happening.
I only meant that 'nothing' as a humble declaration of my uncertainty BUT it in no way reflects a gloomy self image. I do however believe the bulk of MB members actively posting know way more than me - especially in terms of chart analysis; techinical things and historical comparisons. I just kind of go with the flow and hopefully will go back in before the REAL BULL gets too far.
What has transpired with the TSP is over and done with and I'm over it. I won't touch my accout for at least another 10 years so everthing is cool.
Thanks for caring!
Easy on the "Sweets" ! They cause cavities ! :nuts:
The TSP is probably having a heart attack over my frequent trading over
the last two months. When they catch up to me, they'll probably force
me to send in my IFT's by Pony Express !:nuts: I can actually smell insense
and hear the twang of a guitar in the words you have written. I'm glad
its all cool and may the Bull bite you in the Butt before it shows itself to
everyone else.:nuts:
Bad news seems to be just around the next corner and every industry is taking their turn smacking the ball around. Does it help to narrow the focus a bit and only track the top ten stocks in the C, S, and I fund (which ever your poison is) and use the G as a safety net? With all the volatility, broader methods just seem to defy logic at 7:30 pm every day.
P.S.
Forgot to logon yesterday- Happy Veterans Day to all who are or have served.
First, fix your fonts for gosh sakes. I get eye strain easily. :nuts:
The (G) has always AND will always be used as a safety net, if your
looking to do better then the status quo. In a Bull Market, you'll find
the (G) will be considered a temporary failure to make Big Bucks. But
to answer your question, I say no. It is not better to track the Top10
stocks in any given fund. Not unless your investing in certain companies
and purchasing individual stocks. Index Funds round out the losses and
the gains as a group. Thats the benefit and drive behind them. Broader
methods aren't the only things that defy logic in the market this year.
Its a phase that will "eventually" give way to better times. How long?
Geez, I don't know. You've got pro's talking about Depression again.
Others are saying that its a historical time to buy. Up is down, and,
down is up. A friend at work told me its alot easier to make money in
a Bull Market, as opposed to a Bear Market. That was approximately
two years ago and I didn't fully understand. I do now. So use the (G)
as a place to rest your nestegg in and only take out what you can afford
to lose in the risk funds. If you expect the market to crash and it wipes
out your risk dollars, then you already expected to lose it in the first
place. The pain is then tolerable and the volitility is only a ride. Just a
thought from an old and tired squalebear.
TSP Returns From a Holiday !
With such strong loses in the risk funds, I find it absolutely amazing that
the Fund Managers are now capable of controlling the swings within the
(I) Fund and keep the O/D Tracker so consistant. Actually, I've always
believed that they've had this ability all along. Anyway, the O/D has now
touch the Overpayment Side, but this should prove to be temporary. The
difference between the EFA and the (I) Fund YTD returns is less then a
penny. After a holiday, how much more precise can they be. :suspicious: Not a
bad Holiday Estimate on my part either, I must say.
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS
(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1884 TSP Cent Overpayment or -1.92%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2327 TSP Cent Overpayment or -2.09%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.0083 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.06%
DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
With such strong loses in the risk funds, I find it absolutely amazing that
the Fund Managers are now capable of controlling the swings within the
(I) Fund and keep the O/D Tracker so consistant. Actually, I've always
believed that they've had this ability all along. Anyway, the O/D has now
touch the Overpayment Side, but this should prove to be temporary. The
difference between the EFA and the (I) Fund YTD returns is less then a
penny. After a holiday, how much more precise can they be. :suspicious: Not a
bad Holiday Estimate on my part either, I must say.
YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS
(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1884 TSP Cent Overpayment or -1.92%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2327 TSP Cent Overpayment or -2.09%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =+0.0083 TSP Cent Overpayment or -0.06%
DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents
......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -41.96%.....C=...-40.80%....-13.01% (my figures):cheesy:
DW.= -44.69%.....S=.. -43.61%....
EFA= -48.69%......I=...-48.00%...
AGG= -04.75%.....F=.. +00.66%...
...........................G=...+03.31%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -12.02%.....C=...-11.86%....+03.55%(my figures):toung:
DW.= -14.96%.....S=...-14.96%....
EFA= -09.63%......I=...-09.30%...
AGG=+00.42%.....F=...+02.29%...
...........................G=...+00.12%..
SPX= -41.96%.....C=...-40.80%....-13.01% (my figures):cheesy:
DW.= -44.69%.....S=.. -43.61%....
EFA= -48.69%......I=...-48.00%...
AGG= -04.75%.....F=.. +00.66%...
...........................G=...+03.31%...
MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -12.02%.....C=...-11.86%....+03.55%(my figures):toung:
DW.= -14.96%.....S=...-14.96%....
EFA= -09.63%......I=...-09.30%...
AGG=+00.42%.....F=...+02.29%...
...........................G=...+00.12%..
U.S. stocks surge after multiple wild swings
Government reports a jump in weekly jobless claims; U.S. trade gap narrows
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:08 p.m. EST Nov. 13, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Thursday afternoon
after a series of rises and dips, as the market -- down for three
straight days -- tried to absorb rising unemployment claims and
reduced outlooks from Intel Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={AB949F4F-AFDB-44A0-82D2-8BE73FB6B2F2}
Government reports a jump in weekly jobless claims; U.S. trade gap narrows
By Kate Gibson, MarketWatch
Last update: 3:08 p.m. EST Nov. 13, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rallied Thursday afternoon
after a series of rises and dips, as the market -- down for three
straight days -- tried to absorb rising unemployment claims and
reduced outlooks from Intel Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={AB949F4F-AFDB-44A0-82D2-8BE73FB6B2F2}
Watch closely, this day will be determined between 3:40pm and 3:59pm.
Its now 3:19pm and anything could happen between then and now. But
I'm feeling pretty confident that the day will end positive.
Anyone in the market today deserves a hearty congratulations. My last
post didn't see this coming at all. Looking back at a my intraday line chart
shows that this Bear Rally began at 12:55pm for the S&P500 Index. It
wasn't until 2:15pm when the S&P500 reached its opening price. It could
have gone either way at this point and we didn't have the luxury of having
20/20 vision like we do now. At 2:30pm there was a small attempt to go
back down. As late as 2:45pm the S&P500 headed south and lowered to
being just 8 points above its opening price. Little did I know that at this
time (3:05pm) the market never looked back and started a vertical climb
that has only been matched by downside bad news as of late. The S&P500
soared upwards by just over 50 points within the last hour alone. It also
jumped 92.97 points from its low to its high. Simply amasing !
Given the time line given above and the fact that I haven't a clue as to
why this happend, maybe someone could share their thoughts with me.
Did something specific (good news) happen? Was this a short squeeze?
Was this true capitulation and confirmation that a bottom had previously
ocurred? Bottom line is; why did this happen and what does it mean for
future trading?
350zCommTech
Well-known member
Given the time line given above and the fact that I haven't a clue as to
why this happend, maybe someone could share their thoughts with me.
Did something specific (good news) happen? Was this a short squeeze?
Was this true capitulation and confirmation that a bottom had previously
ocurred? Bottom line is; why did this happen and what does it mean for
future trading?
I didn't see any capitulation. There was a lot of currency intervention that started last night, combined with a huge short squeeze when news came out about the 30yr bond auction failure. I guess money went from bonds to stocks.
Frixxxx
Moderator
Give that man a SeeeeeGar! Dude, I got that e-mail that the auction tanked. It was like they went on a shopping spree:nuts: and all my currency positions fell into place......
Sorry for your "F" funds though!
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