Squalebear's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

SB, Made it onto a computer. I am at my sister-in-laws in Florida. I was hoping to see the shuttle launch tomorrow but I couldn't get a pass. Oh well. If it is not to cloudy I may see it part of it from here (Tampa). WOW!!! is this internet slow. Good market today. Congrats to everyone. Not planning on making any changes to my account. Good thing because this is to slow. May try to stop in and say HI!! later. If not I will be back on early next week. Maybe the market can finish strong for the week. Good luck to all.

 

[350zCommTech]

Give that man a SeeeeeGar! Dude, I got that e-mail that the auction tanked. It was like they went on a shopping spree:nuts: and all my currency positions fell into place......

Sorry for your "F" funds though!

Thanks Frixxxx,

The F fund lost 8 cents today. Ouch!

If you really think about it, what what happened today was pretty stupid. When bond auctions fail, it's because foreigners, like China, wasn't buying. Which means higher interest rates, which is bad for our economy. More bond failures like this and we will have a bond dislocation.

 

[Frixxxx]

Thanks Frixxxx,

The F fund lost 8 cents today. Ouch!

If you really think about it, what what happened today was pretty stupid. When bond auctions fail, it's because foreigners, like China, wasn't buying. Which means higher interest rates, which is bad for our economy. More bond failures like this and we will have a bond dislocation.

Stupid is as stupid does-yen up to 97.06 from 97.31 while I read and wrote to this post.

Here's the update I got from Bloomberg:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602007&sid=aIFLGAjZ.K78&refer=govt_bonds

 

[Guest2]

O/D TRACKER FOR THE (I) FUND

O/D Tracker Deficit Reversal is confirmed. Unfortunately, we wish the Fund
Managers would have just let the (I) Funders reap the benefit of a +8%
gain, but it wasn't meant to be. Our next wish is for another huge up day
tomorrow. The Deficit is so huge, that the Fund Managers are not likely
to add to it, but more likely to pay some debt back or keep the returns
closely reflecting the EFA returns. Should it be a down day, the pain isn't
going to be nearly as bad as the EFA pain. Greater Gains or Lower Losses,
that is the call for tomorrow. Historicaly, tomorrow is a great time to be
in the (I) Fund. Lets hope the (C) and (S) can do well too.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

Market Pros: No Apocalypse Now...But Soon---> http://www.cnbc.com/id/27699938

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -37.94%.....C=...-36.72%....-11.99% (my figures)
DW.= -40.86%.....S=.. -39.48%....
EFA= -44.32%......I=...-44.39%...
AGG= -04.43%.....F=.. -00.04%...
...........................G=...+03.32%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -05.93%.....C=...-05.78%....+04.66%(my figures)
DW.= -09.07%.....S=...-08.73%....
EFA= -01.93%......I=...-03.00%...
AGG=+00.76%.....F=...+01.57%...
...........................G=...+00.13%..

 

[Guest2]

View attachment 5070

Returns represent earnings after deduction of accrued administrative expenses, and, in the cases of the F, C, S, I, and L Funds, after trading costs and accrued investment management fees. Future performance of the funds may be significantly different. See the TSP Fund Sheets on the TSP Web site (http://www.tsp.gov) for additional information. The Government Securities Investment (G) Fund is invested in special issues of U.S. Treasury securities. The Fixed Income Index Investment (F) Fund is invested in the Barclays U.S. Debt Index Fund, which tracks the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate bond index. The Common Stock Index Investment (C) Fund is invested in the Barclays Equity Index Fund, which tracks the S&P 500 stock index. The Small Capitalization Stock Index Investment (S) Fund is invested in the Barclays Extended Market Index Fund, which tracks the Dow Jones Wilshire 4500 Completion stock index. The International Stock Index Investment (I) Fund is invested in the Barclays EAFE Index Fund, which tracks the EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) stock index. The L Funds are invested in the individual TSP funds (G, F, C, S, and I). The L Funds were implemented on August 1, 2005.
Source: Federal Retirement Thrift Investment Board OC 06-4 (2/2008)

 

[Silverbird]

 

[KevinD]

You haven't heard? :laugh:

 

[Guest2]

You've expressed my sentiments exactly !

You haven't heard?

Currently, I'm in denial ! I believe anger comes next. Yes, I'm grieving ! :nuts:

 

[Guest2]

With such a positive day yesterday, I decided to waive my typical
<1% IFT in order to maintane level of shares that I had in the risk
funds. Today my portfolio looks like this;

84.11%(G) 0.00%(F) 5.29%(C) 5.31%(S) 5.29%(I)

I just completed a <1% IFT today as I speculate a down day;

82.00%(G) 0.00%(F) 6.00%(C) 6.00%(S) 6.00%(I)

Should the market closes at its current negative level, shares will be
added to each fund. My projections are based on the TSP Funds having
the same exact (end of the day) closing percentages and are as follows;

CURRENT SHARES---NEXT DAYS SHARES--DIFFERENCE
(G) 8281.4371--------> 8022.1077---------> <259.3294>
(F) 0000.0000--------> 0000.0000---------> +/-0.00
(C) 0630.4368--------> 0732.8219---------> +102.3851
(S) 0553.8250--------> 0643.1598---------> +089.3348
(II) 0480.0334--------> 0573.6453---------> +093.6119

 

[XL-entLady]

With such a positive day yesterday, I decided to waive my typical
<1% IFT in order to maintane level of shares that I had in the risk
funds. Today my portfolio looks like this;

84.11%(G) 0.00%(F) 5.29%(C) 5.31%(S) 5.29%(I)

I just completed a <1% IFT today as I speculate a down day;

82.00%(G) 0.00%(F) 6.00%(C) 6.00%(S) 6.00%(I)

Should the market closes at its current negative level, shares will be
added to each fund. My projections are based on the TSP Funds having
the same exact (end of the day) closing percentages and are as follows;

CURRENT SHARES---NEXT DAYS SHARES--DIFFERENCE
(G) 8281.4371--------> 8022.1077---------> <259.3294>
(F) 0000.0000--------> 0000.0000---------> +/-0.00
(C) 0630.4368--------> 0732.8219---------> +102.3851
(S) 0553.8250--------> 0643.1598---------> +089.3348
(II) 0480.0334--------> 0573.6453---------> +093.6119

Such excellent instruction! And we don't even have to pay tuition! :cheesy:

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Such excellent instruction! And we don't even have to pay tuition! :cheesy: Lady

Didn't I mention the balloon payment at the end of the month ? :nuts:
Based on the amount of time I don't have AND the fact that you've
been following this as closely as anyone on the Board, I must ask a
favor of you;

At face value, I see the benefits of share accumulation. Especially
since the market won't go down everyday. But sometimes I'm finding
myself losing faith during the process. Probably because I'm not 100%
sure that this is the way to go, while the market see's such extrordinary
jumps (both up and down). I haven't done the homework as I probably
should have and I'm wondering if the cost out weighs the benefit. Maybe
its the fact that I'm selling shares in order to buy more shares cheaper.
With that said, whats your thoughts behind what I'm doing?

IN FACT, SHOULD ANYONE WISH TO ADD THEIR TWO CENTS IN, IT WOULD BE APPRECIATED

 

[XL-entLady]

Didn't I mention the balloon payment at the end of the month ? :nuts:
Based on the amount of time I don't have AND the fact that you've
been following this as closely as anyone on the Board, I must ask a
favor of you;

At face value, I see the benefits of share accumulation. Especially
since the market won't go down everyday. But sometimes I'm finding
myself losing faith during the process. Probably because I'm not 100%
sure that this is the way to go, while the market see's such extrordinary
jumps (both up and down). I haven't done the homework as I probably
should have and I'm wondering if the cost out weighs the benefit. Maybe
its the fact that I'm selling shares in order to buy more shares cheaper.
With that said, whats your thoughts behind what I'm doing?

I think that your <1% idea is the only saving grace anyone has been able to figure out to get us out of the "2 IFT" trap. Now this is just my opinion, but equity prices are now at generational lows, so I feel strongly that in this market we should be DCA-ing back into equities at little at a time. My thought is that we DCA into the market and if the share price goes down, we buy more shares cheaply. And if the share price goes up, then the shares we already have appreciate in price.

And because we have been so magnanimously granted 2 whole IFTs a month, the only way we can DCA into equities is by moving our <1%. That's why I now have a percentage in the Lifestyle funds too - - more chances to DCA into equities. Every little bit helps.

Someone else may have a different opinion, but that's mine. Thanks again for figuring this out!

And we'll enjoy this small victory until the Thrift Board figures out how to "correct" the software to block it. :worried:

Lady

 

[Guest2]

Thanks Lady, as Steady would say, your a gem !

The only thing I haven't done was utilize my Contribution
Allocations to accomplish the same goal. I'm going to look
at that a bit closer in the near future.

ANYONE ELSE HAVE A COMMENT OR OPINION ? :worried:

 

[poolman]

Thanks Lady, as Steady would say, your a gem !

The only thing I haven't done was utilize my Contribution
Allocations to accomplish the same goal. I'm going to look
at that a bit closer in the near future.

ANYONE ELSE HAVE A COMMENT OR OPINION ? :worried:

Thanks for the invitation. I have thought about what you are doing and I think it is a fine system for the market that we are in.

A slow grind down in a bear market while DCA'ing into the market.

In this kind of market I am willing to take a greater risk and try to catch a significant pop. We are at lowes and seem to be holding. The key is IMO knowing when to get in but only use 50%.
I may have to ride this for 2 weeks or 1 day. But I still have another out whether that means add to my position or get out.

People may look at my decision today and say, Heck he's up 17% But this is the system I use and that is how I got there. I may drop to 12% next week but that is when I will commit the other 50%. After that 1 gain of 2.5% gets me back to even. If the market breaks drown I either take a major loss or sit tight.

I understand your system and agree with it.

 

[Guest2]

Thanks for the invitation. I have thought about what you are doing and I think it is a fine system for the market that we are in.

A slow grind down in a bear market while DCA'ing into the market.

In this kind of market I am willing to take a greater risk and try to catch a significant pop. We are at lowes and seem to be holding. The key is IMO knowing when to get in but only use 50%.
I may have to ride this for 2 weeks or 1 day. But I still have another out whether that means add to my position or get out.

People may look at my decision today and say, Heck he's up 17% But this is the system I use and that is how I got there. I may drop to 12% next week but that is when I will commit the other 50%. After that 1 gain of 2.5% gets me back to even. If the market breaks drown I either take a major loss or sit tight.

I understand your system and agree with it.

Thats what i'm talking about ! Thanks ! I guess I was looking for validation
and anything I might be missing. I understand doing this on a grander scale
with IFT's left at your disposal. But with no IFT's left, it appears the <1%
IFT's I've discovered is the next best thing. Hopefully, it will pay off until
the 2nd of December.

 

[Guest2]

Thats what i'm talking about ! Thanks ! I guess I was looking for validation
and anything I might be missing. I understand doing this on a grander scale
with IFT's left at your disposal. But with no IFT's left, it appears the <1%
IFT's I've discovered is the next best thing. Hopefully, it will pay off until
the 2nd of December.

I was also looking for some tough love. Someone to get on this thread and
proclaim me an idiot (respectfully of coarse). I trust all my friends to do so
in order for me to look closely at both sides of the track. Before a train runs
me down. So again, invitations are not required. Feel free to enter my head.

 

[Guest2]

O/D TRACKER FOR THE (I) FUND

O/D Tracker Deficit Reversal is confirmed. The Fund Managers paid back
.46% or .04 TSP Cents to the (I) Funders on Friday. It would have been
nice to see it on a up day, however, it did manage to lower the loss on a
down day. As I said yesterday, Lower Losses. They still have 0.13 TSP
Cents to payback to us. At this point we can only hope the -5% S&P500
Futures change come early Monday morning. Otherwise, they'll likely do
the same thing as Friday. Lower Losses.

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents
(11/07/08) -1.1986%+0.0648 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/10/08)+0.4357%+0.0029 tsp cents
(11/11/08) -0.4275%+0.0606 tsp cents (Holiday Estimate)
(11/12/08)+0.5121% -0.0083 tsp cents
(11/13/08) -1.5707%+0.2074 tsp cents
(11/14/08)+0.4616%+0.1363 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/17/08)

THE KEY:
------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2000 thru+.2500 Elavated Deficit, (Windfall Coming)
+.1500 thru+.2000 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ---
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.1500 Low Overpayment, (Flip A Coin)
- .1500 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Rarely Goes Higher)
- .2000 thru -.2500 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
--------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -40.53%.....C=...-39.36%....-12.75% (my figures)
DW.= -43.95%.....S=.. -42.85%....
EFA= -47.52%......I=...-47.33%...
AGG= -04.14%.....F=.. +00.06%...
...........................G=...+03.33%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -09.85%.....C=...-09.71%....+03.83%(my figures)
DW.= -13.82%.....S=...-13.82%....
EFA= -07.56%......I=...-08.13%...
AGG=+01.06%.....F=...+01.68%...
...........................G=...+00.14%..