Squalebear's Account Talk

[PessOptimist]

Mr Bear

I am very intrigued about your spread sheet. I whupped one up in Xcel this afternoon that links to Yahoo ^GSPC for the up/down percentage. From that and the previous day close of C the rest is just numbers.

Is that the right fund? I got a bunch a other questions if you wish to share.

Dave

 

[Guest2]

Mr Bear

I am very intrigued about your spread sheet. I whupped one up in Xcel this afternoon that links to Yahoo ^GSPC for the up/down percentage. From that and the previous day close of C the rest is just numbers.

Is that the right fund? I got a bunch a other questions if you wish to share.

Dave

Please, call me SB. I already have a identity crisis. :embarrest:

In yahoo, the correct symbol for the S&P500 is ^GSPC and it reflects
what your (C) Fund is doing during the coarse of a trading day. In other
sights, you might find them use the symbol $INX or SPX. But your post
is correct for Yahoo Finance.

I am always available to help the membership. If I can. Just don't throw
me 20 questions all at once. Not only am I OCD, but I'm afraid I have a
small touch of ADD too. (just kidding) Its more of a time management
thing. For instance, I'm late in updating the O/D Tracker and have to
get dressed for duty. Gotta Go for now. I'll be checking my thread
throughout the night and once I get home in the early morning hours.
Hit me with your best shot {80's Musical Reference} and I'll do my best.
now.

 

[Guest2]

Deficit payback lowers the loss in the (I) Fund in comparison to the
EFA. Driving the Deficit into the Overpayent Area of the O/D Tracker.
Does this mean we didn't get a true Deficit Reversal? Maybe? Stay
tuned as this can't be answered at this point.

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1976 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.81%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2556 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.01%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA =-0.0857 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.59%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/13/08) +0.6117% -0.3431 tsp cents
(10/14/08) -1.0454% -0.1711 tsp cents
(10/15/08) +0.9341% -0.2846 tsp cents
(10/16/08) -1.7110% -0.0482 tsp cents
(10/17/08) +0.3405% -0.0987 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents

THE KEY:
-------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming ! (OMG)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)

------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .1000 thru -.0000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .2000 thru -.1000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .3000 thru -.2000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .4000 thru -.3000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .6000 thru -.4000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -35.11%.....C=...-33.90%....-11.16% (my figures)
DW.= -36.78%.....S=.. -35.60%....
EFA= -42.39%......I=...-41.37%...
AGG= -04.12%.....F=..+00.25%...
...........................G=..+03.24%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -01.65%.....C=...-01.59%....+05.65%(my figures)
DW.= -02.81%.....S=...-02.88%....
EFA=+01.46%.....I=....+02.27%...
AGG=+01.08%.....F=...+01.86%...
...........................G=...+00.05%..

 

[Guest2]

YTD O/D FOR ALL TSP FUNDS

(C) Fund vs. the SPX = -0.1913 TSP Cent Overpayment or +1.84%
(S) Fund vs. DWCPF. = -0.2470 TSP Cent Overpayment or +2.03%
(I). Fund vs. the EFA = -0.1010 TSP Cent Overpayment or +0.74%

DAILY (I) FUND VS. EFA O/D TRACKING RESULTS:

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/20/08) -0.7050%+0.0048 tsp cents
(10/21/08)+0.8721% -0.1205 tsp cents
(10/22/08)+0.5115% -0.1807 tsp cents
(10/23/08) -0.3743% -0.1331 tsp cents
(10/24/08) -0.4057% -0.0725 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(10/27/08) -0.4900% -0.1282 tsp cents
(10/28/08) -1.9368%+0.1181 tsp cents
(10/29/08)+0.7332%+0.0193 tsp cents
(10/30/08)+0.9004% -0.1080 tsp cents
(10/31/08) -0.8988%+0.0199 tsp cents

......DATE.....DLY % DIFF.....YTD TSP CENTS.....
(11/03/08) -0.5300%+0.0950 tsp cents
(11/04/08) -0.0212%+0.1047 tsp cents
(11/05/08)+1.2817% -0.0857 tsp cents
(11/06/08)+0.1518% -0.1010 tsp cents

THE KEY:
---------------------------------------------------------- THEY OWE US ----
+.2500 thru+.3000 Windfall Coming ! (OMG)
+.1500 thru+.2500 High Deficit (Rarely Goes Higher)
+.1000 thru+.1500 Medium Deficit (Flip A Coin)
+.0000 thru+.1000 Low Deficit (Goal is Met)
------------------------------------------------- WE OWE THEM ----
- .0000 thru -.1000 Minimum Overpayment (Goal is Met)
- .1000 thru -.2000 Low Overpayment, (Slightly Over Goal)
- .2000 thru -.3000 Medium Overpayment (Flip A Coin)
- .3000 thru -.4000 Elavated Overpayment, (Payback Immanent)
- .4000 thru -.6000 High Overpayment (Payback Past Due)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Guest2]

YTD IDX returns: YTD TSP returns: YTD SB current returns:
SPX= -38.37%.....C=...-37.20%....-12.36% (my figures):embarrest:
DW.= -39.64%.....S=.. -38.50%....
EFA= -46.11%......I=...-45.06%...
AGG= -04.52%.....F=..+00.17%...
...........................G=..+03.25%...

MTD IDX returns: MTD TSP returns: MTD SB current returns:
SPX= -06.59%.....C=...-06.50%....+04.42%(my figures)
DW.= -07.20%.....S=...-07.24%....
EFA= -05.09%.....I=...-04.18%...
AGG=+00.67%.....F=...+01.79%...
...........................G=...+00.06%..

 

[WorkFE]

SB,
If I moved a portion of my $ to the (I) fund before noon tomorrow it would be at tomorrows close, correct.

and

That being my last IFT I could still move back to the G if preferred?

 

[justbizness45]

SB,
If I moved a portion of my $ to the (I) fund before noon tomorrow it would be at tomorrows close, correct.

and

That being my last IFT I could still move back to the G if preferred?

Not SB, but you are correct. You could move all your money back to G or do it over several transfers.

 

[WorkFE]

Thanks

 

[PessOptimist]

SB - got most of the spread sheet working for C and F. Thanks for the idea. Guess you have to adjust C in the morning for the dividends.

For the G fund, is there anything you can track?

I looked at a job sorta like yours at Ft Dix when I retired from the AF. Don't think I woulda had the temperment or physical stamina for it. Good on you for doing it!

 

[Guest2]

SB, If I moved a portion of my $ to the (I) fund
before noon tomorrow it would be at tomorrows close, correct. and That
being my last IFT I could still move back to the G if preferred?

Not SB, but you are correct. You could move all your money back to G or do it over several transfers.

Its a great feeling to know that in my absence, someone will fill the void,
lift your spirits or set one on the correct path. Thanks JB45. U Da Man !

SB - got most of the spread sheet working
for C and F. Thanks for the idea. Guess you have to adjust C in the
morning for the dividends. For the G fund, is there anything you can
track?

I looked at a job sorta like yours at Ft Dix when I retired from the AF. Don't think I woulda had the temperment or physical stamina for it. Good on you for doing it!

PO, I don't know anything about dividend adjustments. But If thats the
reason for the minut balance difference that occurs when comparing the
(C) Fund vs. the SPX,,,, then I handle the penny by simply changing my
ending account balance balance when I confirm my figures with the TSP
Website the following day.

The (G) Fund is on its own during the trading day, however, I use the
prior weeks price increase to project next week returns. ie.... .0038 on
Monday .0013 on Tursday,,,,etc....

Thanks for the kind words, the job certainly isn't cut out for everyone and
I never grew up wanting to be what I am. I don't think any of us did. But
when you get right down to brass tacks, someones gotta do it.

 

[nasa1974]

Morning SB,

Not a lot of good news out there. But maybe the market can rally around the European market. :blink:

 

[Guest2]

Morning SB,

Not a lot of good news out there. But maybe the market can rally around the European market. :blink:

I don't think anything will keep the market green today, with the exception
of the Jobs Report. If it surprises to the "good" the market could rally back
half its two day loses. But if it leans towards the "bad", those green futures
aren't going to mean diddly. The number is 200,000, some are saying 300,000.
Anything over 200,000 will result in a ouch. If the number comes out at
198,000 hope will spring eternal. (JMHO)

 

[justbizness45]

-240,000 jobs and unemployment a whopping 6.5%. Not the good numbers people were hoping for.

 

[justbizness45]

Its a great feeling to know that in my absence, someone will fill the void,
lift your spirits or set one on the correct path. Thanks JB45. U Da Man !

Didn't you realize everyone stops by SB's place when you're off doing the job. Gotta make sure no one's running amuck. Well not too much anyway. :laugh::laugh: Have a great day!!

 

[Steadygain]

SB,
Sorry I haven't been around lately... but decided to take a break from the Markets...as the day to day stuff has lost it's fizzle for me.

Anyway - I'm thinkn' you must be taking a short break - and I hope whatever it is (or wherever you're going) that things go wonderful.

Today I think the Markets will end GREEN and next week will probably start off pretty good. I think this will happen NOT BECAUSE IT MAKES ANY SINCE - but simply because the Markets are so sporatic and have a way of inticing hopeful investors - THEN I think it will fall a lot more.

It was during Reagan's Administration that I was told 'President Bush' would herald in 'The Tri-Lateral Agreement' which would be the greatest GLOBAL FINANCIAL CHANGE in history. It's funny because I remember thinking how stupid that sounded as Bush was the VP at that time and I didn't forsee him becoming President. So time will tell....

Wishing you (and yours) the very best.

 

[Guest2]

-240,000 jobs and unemployment a whopping 6.5%. Not the good numbers people were hoping for.

It appears (at this point) that the market considered this
over the last two days. The true surprise was the revisions
of the last two months prior. Thought the market would
have tanked over it. Oversold the last two days it looks
like a possible green day. At the minimum, a mild sell off
at the end of the day.

didn't you realize everyone stops by sb's place when you're off doing the job. Gotta make sure no one's running amuck. Well not too much anyway. Have a great day!!

Don't you need a license to run amuck. Its pretty cool to think
of my thread as a daily newspaper. I only wish we had positive
news to share. I guess we'll have to make do with "better then
expected" bad news. Have a good one yourself !

 

[Guest2]

sb,
sorry i haven't been around lately... But decided to take a break from the markets...as the day to day stuff has lost it's fizzle for me.

anyway - i'm thinkn' you must be taking a short break - and i hope whatever it is (or wherever you're going) that things go wonderful.

today i think the markets will end green and next week will probably start off pretty good. i think this will happen not because it makes any since - but simply because the markets are so sporatic and have a way of inticing hopeful investors - then i think it will fall a lot more.

it was during reagan's administration that i was told 'president bush' would herald in 'the tri-lateral agreement' which would be the greatest global financial change in history. it's funny because i remember thinking how stupid that sounded as bush was the vp at that time and i didn't forsee him becoming president. So time will tell....

wishing you (and yours) the very best.

I've noticed the weight of the market and the political crap
that was going on, was taking its toll. You went back to
what gives you comfort and peace. You went back to your
writings. No big surprise there, it's not always easy to
smile in the midst of the uncontrollable. As you noticed,
I've backed off abit myself and focused on my game plan.
I even got a chance to vent in another thread created by
a reporter. On the other hand, I actualy managed to help
two newer members have a better understanding of this
thing we do. {mafia reference}. All in all, I'm doing well and
I thank you for the kind wishes.

 

[Guest2]

Priorities Take Me Away,,,,,But I'll be Checking In From Time To Time.

Nice Rally as of 11am ! May it hold all day !

I'm pulling out some profits today and lowering my stake in the (S) Fund.
I'll be 85%(G) 5%(C) 5%(S) 5%(I) for Monday. But I fear that November
15th, 2008 will lead me back to the (G) Fund a day or two earlier. Like I
always say (to myself) "One-Day-At-A-Time".

 

[TerpTrader]

"But I fear that November
15th, 2008 will lead me back to the (G) Fund a day or two earlier"

What's significant about 11/15, sb ?